Political Roundtable Part XXVII

[Zonkerbl]

Don't worry, like 80% of the electorate is not paying any attention right now. This election will probably be decided by some random thing in October that no one has control over.

yay

You could be right... but it isn't what I am seeing. Folks already know the difference and are entrenching. For me, it is easy - I am just trying to sign up D voters. And I am in Texas... so there is that. Both sides ask me who I am supporting - and I say, whoever emerges out of the primaries. You wouldn't believe the blowback I get. I had one Bernie fan chase me down the street telling me I was evil for signing up moderates - sheesh.

Something on October or before has to break - otherwise the current economy that Trump didn't start will carrying him through. This economy is so damn resilient no matter how much we try to break it...

One of the statisticians I follow on twitter says it's good that people are anxious and fearful. GOP turnout is already maxxed out, so I'm actually not worried about Trump being able to do better than he did in 2016. If Dems are worried enough about this election to chase you down the street I'm pretty sure a lot of them will show up at the polls. So I'm cautiously optimistic. But who knows.

Texas turning Dem a decade early would be nice. It'll happen eventually.

[dckingsfan]

Don't worry, like 80% of the electorate is not paying any attention right now. This election will probably be decided by some random thing in October that no one has control over.

yay

You could be right... but it isn't what I am seeing. Folks already know the difference and are entrenching. For me, it is easy - I am just trying to sign up D voters. And I am in Texas... so there is that. Both sides ask me who I am supporting - and I say, whoever emerges out of the primaries. You wouldn't believe the blowback I get. I had one Bernie fan chase me down the street telling me I was evil for signing up moderates - sheesh.

Something on October or before has to break - otherwise the current economy that Trump didn't start will carrying him through. This economy is so damn resilient no matter how much we try to break it...

One of the statisticians I follow on twitter says it's good that people are anxious and fearful. GOP turnout is already maxxed out, so I'm actually not worried about Trump being able to do better than he did in 2016. If Dems are worried enough about this election to chase you down the street I'm pretty sure a lot of them will show up at the polls. So I'm cautiously optimistic. But who knows.

Texas turning Dem a decade early would be nice. It'll happen eventually.

I would say that Texas turning D would NEVER happen without someone like Beto. There is just incredible apathy. Check out the voting percentages in Harris county - they are pathetic.

But Beto "seems" to get folks to come out in Texas. It is why Houston flipped to being complete D (enough that the state wants to appoint the judges now ). Now he is trying to flip the statehouse (which would kill the R gerrymandering).

Will they support Sanders - no. But I would guess that Sanders isn't counting on Texas in the general election.

[bsilver]

Bloomberg's surge is troubling for several reasons. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up under the continuous attack that has started and will be relentless.

The main problem with a Bloomberg candidacy will be defections from Sanders supporters in the general election. Early in the campaign their main fear was Biden getting the nomination. Biden's positions were in no way aligned with Sanders'. OTOH I think they believed Biden was at least a decent human being. With Biden as the candidate, I think Sanders supporters defection would be similar to the 2016 election with 10% voting for Trump and others not voting or voting 3rd party.

While Sanders supporters clearly didn't want Biden, their feelings toward Bloomberg are much more intense. I think many truly despise Bloomberg, and Sanders clearly can't stand him either. In a general election, Sanders may not even endorse Bloomberg. The D's risk losing a huge number of Sanders supporters.

I think the D party establishment understand the problem, and strongly doubt Bloomberg would prevail in a brokered convention. But will there be any other moderates left with many delegates? Maybe not. There's a good chance the eventual candidate goes into the convention with a small number of delegates.

[dckingsfan]

Bloomberg's surge is troubling for several reasons. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up under the continuous attack that has started and will be relentless.

The main problem with a Bloomberg candidacy will be defections from Sanders supporters in the general election. Early in the campaign their main fear was Biden getting the nomination. Biden's positions were in no way aligned with Sanders'. OTOH I think they believed Biden was at least a decent human being. With Biden as the candidate, I think Sanders supporters defection would be similar to the 2016 election with 10% voting for Trump and others not voting or voting 3rd party.

While Sanders supporters clearly didn't want Biden, their feelings toward Bloomberg are much more intense. I think many truly despise Bloomberg, and Sanders clearly can't stand him either. In a general election, Sanders may not even endorse Bloomberg. The D's risk losing a huge number of Sanders supporters.

I think the D party establishment understand the problem, and strongly doubt Bloomberg would prevail in a brokered convention. But will there be any other moderates left with many delegates? Maybe not. There's a good chance the eventual candidate goes into the convention with a small number of delegates.

I agree with this thinking - especially after the onslaught of advertising that will come from Bloomberg.

I am thinking that it is the same with moderate Ds and Bernie (but I could be very skewed because my conversations are coming in Texas). It feels like 10 to 20% are going to stay home.

Would a brokered convention where neither Sanders or Bloomberg gets the nod heal the party. I don't think so - pretty sure the Bernie folks will say he is being robbed.

[bsilver]

Bloomberg's surge is troubling for several reasons. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up under the continuous attack that has started and will be relentless.

The main problem with a Bloomberg candidacy will be defections from Sanders supporters in the general election. Early in the campaign their main fear was Biden getting the nomination. Biden's positions were in no way aligned with Sanders'. OTOH I think they believed Biden was at least a decent human being. With Biden as the candidate, I think Sanders supporters defection would be similar to the 2016 election with 10% voting for Trump and others not voting or voting 3rd party.

While Sanders supporters clearly didn't want Biden, their feelings toward Bloomberg are much more intense. I think many truly despise Bloomberg, and Sanders clearly can't stand him either. In a general election, Sanders may not even endorse Bloomberg. The D's risk losing a huge number of Sanders supporters.

I think the D party establishment understand the problem, and strongly doubt Bloomberg would prevail in a brokered convention. But will there be any other moderates left with many delegates? Maybe not. There's a good chance the eventual candidate goes into the convention with a small number of delegates.

I agree with this thinking - especially after the onslaught of advertising that will come from Bloomberg.

I am thinking that it is the same with moderate Ds and Bernie (but I could be very skewed because my conversations are coming in Texas). It feels like 10 to 20% are going to stay home.

Would a brokered convention where neither Sanders or Bloomberg gets the nod heal the party. I don't think so - pretty sure the Bernie folks will say he is being robbed.

If Sanders has a plurality of delegates and doesn't get the nomination, some will say he was robbed, especially in light of DNC tactics in 2016. However, if his total stays in the 30% area, I don't think they have much of a case.

Bloomberg supporters are nothing like Sanders supporters. There's no emotions there. Most would jump ship if they thought another moderate could win. It's hard to say how they would vote (or not vote) if Sanders were the nominee. They don't like Sanders positions but most think Trump is the bigger danger. I recently read a Max Boot (a never-Trumper Republican) column in the Washington Post. He was imploring the Ds not to nominate Sanders, but said he would vote for him anyway.

So, I agree with you about the stay at homers (or Gary Johnson type votes). Probably more of them, than actually going for Trump.

I wish I could like Bloomberg. I heard him speak at the CIA before he was mayor. He's definitely a brilliant man. But personally comes across as an **** from the stories coming out.

[Zonkerbl]

I wouldn't put *any* weight on any never Trumper opinions. While I love Max Boot to death, he represents absolutely no one. There is absolutely no reason to try to appeal to anyone who voted for Trump - while people who voted for Trump, realized it was a mistake, and are now willing to vote against him do exist, and I admire them A LOT, there is absolutely not enough of them to make up the 100k difference that won the election for Trump in 2016.

The path of least resistance to defeating Trump is to nominate someone who gets more than 50% of Dem votes during the nomination process. If that doesn't happen, and we have a brokered convention, then we should choose a nominee who african americans support the most and also can bring out Bernie supporters, if possible, in that order.

There's a chunk of Bernie supporters who will sit out the election if Bernie isn't nominated. I imagine it to be unlikely that the number of such voters is significantly different from 2016. If we get the turnout surge we expect in 2020 we won't need them. However, we should still try to woo them because they could make the difference in the senate race.

[dckingsfan]

I wouldn't put *any* weight on any never Trumper opinions. While I love Max Boot to death, he represents absolutely no one. There is absolutely no reason to try to appeal to anyone who voted for Trump - while people who voted for Trump, realized it was a mistake, and are now willing to vote against him do exist, and I admire them A LOT, there is absolutely not enough of them to make up the 100k difference that won the election for Trump in 2016.

The path of least resistance to defeating Trump is to nominate someone who gets more than 50% of Dem votes during the nomination process. If that doesn't happen, and we have a brokered convention, then we should choose a nominee who african americans support the most and also can bring out Bernie supporters, if possible, in that order.

There's a chunk of Bernie supporters who will sit out the election if Bernie isn't nominated. I imagine it to be unlikely that the number of such voters is significantly different from 2016. If we get the turnout surge we expect in 2020 we won't need them. However, we should still try to woo them because they could make the difference in the senate race.

Just following this logic and if you want to get anything done, you would nominate the candidate with the best chance to win the POTUS AND take the senate. Correct?

[Zonkerbl]

I wouldn't put *any* weight on any never Trumper opinions. While I love Max Boot to death, he represents absolutely no one. There is absolutely no reason to try to appeal to anyone who voted for Trump - while people who voted for Trump, realized it was a mistake, and are now willing to vote against him do exist, and I admire them A LOT, there is absolutely not enough of them to make up the 100k difference that won the election for Trump in 2016.

The path of least resistance to defeating Trump is to nominate someone who gets more than 50% of Dem votes during the nomination process. If that doesn't happen, and we have a brokered convention, then we should choose a nominee who african americans support the most and also can bring out Bernie supporters, if possible, in that order.

There's a chunk of Bernie supporters who will sit out the election if Bernie isn't nominated. I imagine it to be unlikely that the number of such voters is significantly different from 2016. If we get the turnout surge we expect in 2020 we won't need them. However, we should still try to woo them because they could make the difference in the senate race.

Just following this logic and if you want to get anything done, you would nominate the candidate with the best chance to win the POTUS AND take the senate. Correct?

I'm not going to hand the nomination to Bernie if he didn't earn it, and if he didn't get more than 50% of the votes, he didn't earn it.

In a brokered convention I'd offer whoever got the most votes the nomination (I'm assuming that's the person who got the most aa votes), and then if that's not Bernie offer the VP to him. I think that's entirely fair and if he's who I think he is he'd accept it.

[doclinkin]

In a brokered convention I'd offer whoever got the most votes the nomination (I'm assuming that's the person who got the most aa votes), and then if that's not Bernie offer the VP to him. I think that's entirely fair and if he's who I think he is he'd accept it.

Bernie is not who you think he is then. He is nothing if not stubborn. "Independent" some might say. I think he would take the VP nomination if Warren were the winner over him, but otherwise he will fight tooth and nail every inch of the way, win, lose, or smoking crater.

It's one reason why I tend to support Warren over Bernie. I suspect as POTUS Bernie would veto reasonable politically negotiated compromise bills that cross his desk, sending them back to be re-worked to meet his standard even if that means they stall to death in committee.

[dckingsfan]

I wouldn't put *any* weight on any never Trumper opinions. While I love Max Boot to death, he represents absolutely no one. There is absolutely no reason to try to appeal to anyone who voted for Trump - while people who voted for Trump, realized it was a mistake, and are now willing to vote against him do exist, and I admire them A LOT, there is absolutely not enough of them to make up the 100k difference that won the election for Trump in 2016.

The path of least resistance to defeating Trump is to nominate someone who gets more than 50% of Dem votes during the nomination process. If that doesn't happen, and we have a brokered convention, then we should choose a nominee who african americans support the most and also can bring out Bernie supporters, if possible, in that order.

There's a chunk of Bernie supporters who will sit out the election if Bernie isn't nominated. I imagine it to be unlikely that the number of such voters is significantly different from 2016. If we get the turnout surge we expect in 2020 we won't need them. However, we should still try to woo them because they could make the difference in the senate race.

Just following this logic and if you want to get anything done, you would nominate the candidate with the best chance to win the POTUS AND take the senate. Correct?

I'm not going to hand the nomination to Bernie if he didn't earn it, and if he didn't get more than 50% of the votes, he didn't earn it.

In a brokered convention I'd offer whoever got the most votes the nomination (I'm assuming that's the person who got the most aa votes), and then if that's not Bernie offer the VP to him. I think that's entirely fair and if he's who I think he is he'd accept it.

I didn't ask the question correctly - I wonder who is that candidate that could do both...

[Zonkerbl]

If Bernie can do it (get the aa vote as well as the berniebro vote), more power to him.

I have no idea who african americans will support the most, out of the mostly white bread candidates remaining. That's why I'm anxious for some actual data to work with from Super Tuesday.

[TGW]

Saagar Enjeti, conservative pundit for the Hill, on Bloomberg:

Watch on YouTube

Needless to say, if Bloomberg is somehow the nominee, many people will not vote, and it will guarantee another 4 years of Trump.

[Pointgod]

Bloomberg's surge is troubling for several reasons. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up under the continuous attack that has started and will be relentless.

The main problem with a Bloomberg candidacy will be defections from Sanders supporters in the general election. Early in the campaign their main fear was Biden getting the nomination. Biden's positions were in no way aligned with Sanders'. OTOH I think they believed Biden was at least a decent human being. With Biden as the candidate, I think Sanders supporters defection would be similar to the 2016 election with 10% voting for Trump and others not voting or voting 3rd party.

While Sanders supporters clearly didn't want Biden, their feelings toward Bloomberg are much more intense. I think many truly despise Bloomberg, and Sanders clearly can't stand him either. In a general election, Sanders may not even endorse Bloomberg. The D's risk losing a huge number of Sanders supporters.

I think the D party establishment understand the problem, and strongly doubt Bloomberg would prevail in a brokered convention. But will there be any other moderates left with many delegates? Maybe not. There's a good chance the eventual candidate goes into the convention with a small number of delegates.

Let me preface this by saying that Bloomberg is an absolute goon and is basically buying his way into the election. That being said I’m kind of tired of Sanders supporters holding the party hostage by threatening to vote for someone else or not show up in the general. Party unity only matters one way apparently. It’s the type of behavior that’s going to bite them in the ass because there will be a brokered convention and good luck getting delegates on your side when you’ve pissed off all of the non Sanders voters. It won’t be a conspiracy or plot to screw Bernie (whatever happens are the rules that everyone signed up for) but I’m sure the fact that Sander’s people have managed to alienate a large portion of the 70% that aren’t diehard Bernie supporters aren’t doing him any favors. Don’t be surprised when a compromise candidate like Pete or Klobachar comes out of the convention.

[pancakes3]

um, here's a better source. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/michael-bloomberg-2020-democratic-campaign.html?

[gtn130]

I wouldn't put *any* weight on any never Trumper opinions. While I love Max Boot to death, he represents absolutely no one.

This is correct. Never Trumpers seem to think they matter electorally when they don't. Trump won without them. The idea that Dems should cater to Never Trumpers because their party abandoned them for an orange game show host is just laughable. The truth is that Never Trumpers like Rick Wilson created Trump by passively supporting all the nonsense Fox News et al were streaming into the brains of their viewers for two decades.

[gtn130]

Read on Twitter

I get that Trump Russia is boring now and we've moved on, but it's stuff like this that makes it crystal clear Trump is owned by Russia in some capacity. What on earth would motivate Trump to take on this cause otherwise? It's the exact same sh*t with the Ukraine stuff - "Dirt on Joe Biden" was an ancillary benefit of the actual objective, which was to exonerate Russia.

[Pointgod]

I wouldn't put *any* weight on any never Trumper opinions. While I love Max Boot to death, he represents absolutely no one. There is absolutely no reason to try to appeal to anyone who voted for Trump - while people who voted for Trump, realized it was a mistake, and are now willing to vote against him do exist, and I admire them A LOT, there is absolutely not enough of them to make up the 100k difference that won the election for Trump in 2016.

The path of least resistance to defeating Trump is to nominate someone who gets more than 50% of Dem votes during the nomination process. If that doesn't happen, and we have a brokered convention, then we should choose a nominee who african americans support the most and also can bring out Bernie supporters, if possible, in that order.

There's a chunk of Bernie supporters who will sit out the election if Bernie isn't nominated. I imagine it to be unlikely that the number of such voters is significantly different from 2016. If we get the turnout surge we expect in 2020 we won't need them. However, we should still try to woo them because they could make the difference in the senate race.

I think the midterms can provide a blueprint on who to turn out. The Democrats took the House by turning out voters in red districts, especially the suburbs. You can look at the potential Democratic voting base that needs to show up in the general as Obama-Trump voters, Romney-Clinton voters (again these guys are never talked about) and new voters. The only candidate that could turn up all 3 President Obama. Otherwise it’s a balancing act and trade off from all 3. I could see Bernie turning out new voters but would that offset the Romney-Clinton voters or Obama-Trump? Similarity I could see Pete turning up Romney-Clinton but depressing Obama-Trump and new voters. I think there’s way too much gamesmanship with voting. Everyone just vote for who they want in the primary and support whoever gets the nomination general.

[Kanyewest]

Bloomberg's surge is troubling for several reasons. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up under the continuous attack that has started and will be relentless.

The main problem with a Bloomberg candidacy will be defections from Sanders supporters in the general election. Early in the campaign their main fear was Biden getting the nomination. Biden's positions were in no way aligned with Sanders'. OTOH I think they believed Biden was at least a decent human being. With Biden as the candidate, I think Sanders supporters defection would be similar to the 2016 election with 10% voting for Trump and others not voting or voting 3rd party.

While Sanders supporters clearly didn't want Biden, their feelings toward Bloomberg are much more intense. I think many truly despise Bloomberg, and Sanders clearly can't stand him either. In a general election, Sanders may not even endorse Bloomberg. The D's risk losing a huge number of Sanders supporters.

I think the D party establishment understand the problem, and strongly doubt Bloomberg would prevail in a brokered convention. But will there be any other moderates left with many delegates? Maybe not. There's a good chance the eventual candidate goes into the convention with a small number of delegates.

Let me preface this by saying that Bloomberg is an absolute goon and is basically buying his way into the election. That being said I’m kind of tired of Sanders supporters holding the party hostage by threatening to vote for someone else or not show up in the general. Party unity only matters one way apparently. It’s the type of behavior that’s going to bite them in the ass because there will be a brokered convention and good luck getting delegates on your side when you’ve pissed off all of the non Sanders voters. It won’t be a conspiracy or plot to screw Bernie (whatever happens are the rules that everyone signed up for) but I’m sure the fact that Sander’s people have managed to alienate a large portion of the 70% that aren’t diehard Bernie supporters aren’t doing him any favors. Don’t be surprised when a compromise candidate like Pete or Klobachar comes out of the convention.

The lack of enthusiasm may cross over from Sanders as well Clinton voters if Bloomberg is indeed the nominee. I already know Clinton supporters who are reluctant to vote for Bloomberg in the general election- ultimately they will probably vote for Bloomberg but I feel like many Democrats who voted for Clinton would choose to not vote.

[bgroban]

You could be right... but it isn't what I am seeing. Folks already know the difference and are entrenching. For me, it is easy - I am just trying to sign up D voters. And I am in Texas... so there is that. Both sides ask me who I am supporting - and I say, whoever emerges out of the primaries. You wouldn't believe the blowback I get. I had one Bernie fan chase me down the street telling me I was evil for signing up moderates - sheesh.

Something on October or before has to break - otherwise the current economy that Trump didn't start will carrying him through. This economy is so damn resilient no matter how much we try to break it...

One of the statisticians I follow on twitter says it's good that people are anxious and fearful. GOP turnout is already maxxed out, so I'm actually not worried about Trump being able to do better than he did in 2016. If Dems are worried enough about this election to chase you down the street I'm pretty sure a lot of them will show up at the polls. So I'm cautiously optimistic. But who knows.

Texas turning Dem a decade early would be nice. It'll happen eventually.

I would say that Texas turning D would NEVER happen without someone like Beto. There is just incredible apathy. Check out the voting percentages in Harris county - they are pathetic.

But Beto "seems" to get folks to come out in Texas. It is why Houston flipped to being complete D (enough that the state wants to appoint the judges now ). Now he is trying to flip the statehouse (which would kill the R gerrymandering).

Will they support Sanders - no. But I would guess that Sanders isn't counting on Texas in the general election.

I live in a suburb of Houston. Relocated here from the East Coast almost 10 years ago. We love it here! Great place to raise a family.

On that note, outside of Austin, Houston proper, maybe some other spots, Texas is a solid Red, and I do not see that changing anytime soon. I am also seeing more minorities (blacks, hispanics) going Red, too.

[dckingsfan]

One of the statisticians I follow on twitter says it's good that people are anxious and fearful. GOP turnout is already maxxed out, so I'm actually not worried about Trump being able to do better than he did in 2016. If Dems are worried enough about this election to chase you down the street I'm pretty sure a lot of them will show up at the polls. So I'm cautiously optimistic. But who knows.

Texas turning Dem a decade early would be nice. It'll happen eventually.

I would say that Texas turning D would NEVER happen without someone like Beto. There is just incredible apathy. Check out the voting percentages in Harris county - they are pathetic.

But Beto "seems" to get folks to come out in Texas. It is why Houston flipped to being complete D (enough that the state wants to appoint the judges now ). Now he is trying to flip the statehouse (which would kill the R gerrymandering).

Will they support Sanders - no. But I would guess that Sanders isn't counting on Texas in the general election.

I live in a suburb of Houston. Relocated here from the East Coast almost 10 years ago. We love it here! Great place to raise a family.

On that note, outside of Austin, Houston proper, maybe some other spots, Texas is a solid Red, and I do not see that changing anytime soon. I am also seeing more minorities (blacks, hispanics) going Red, too.

Loving the weather right now compared to Maryland - we are in the museum district so, more downtown.

I haven't seen the blacks going red - more just apathy (check out the voter registration and vote counts in Harris county, amazingly pathetic). But also check out what happened to the Harris County and Houston Governments when Beto was running. They flipped solidly blue. I think that would be a long-term trend in Houston, Austin, Dallas and San Antonio in time.