Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[dcPress]

A technical foul or two would do it.

[payitforward]

From another thread:

...Deni was worth a fortune (i.e. in a trade) because he is locked into an absurdly cheap deal.

This is a fair point, by far the strongest point I'd say, in any critique of the Deni trade.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Still worth trading so the franchise could tank to pick 6th?

[penbeast0]

Still worth trading so the franchise could tank to pick 6th?

You bet your money and you take your chances. It's not a guarantee any more than how good Carrington is justifies trading or not trading Deni for a pick we didn't know would become Bub.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Still worth trading so the franchise could tank to pick 6th?

You bet your money and you take your chances. It's not a guarantee any more than how good Carrington is justifies trading or not trading Deni for a pick we didn't know would become Bub.

Said every degenerate gambler ever.

[The Consiglieri]

We'll know for sure in '29, or close to it. The punishing horror show that was the '25 lottery definitely put some wood to the value of the trade. I can't even take solace in the knowledge that we would have never gotten value of the cheap extension anyway, because if the Wizards were improved similarly to the Trailblazers level of improvement: well, what if that landed us in the sixers or spurs slot pre-lottery instead of #2 overall? Not something anyone should want to think about, but definitely a scenario that in many worlds might have played out (we keep Deni, AND we move up to 2 or 3?!?! Yes, definitely possible).

[dckingsfan]

We'll know for sure in '29, or close to it. The punishing horror show that was the '25 lottery definitely put some wood to the value of the trade. I can't even take solace in the knowledge that we would have never gotten value of the cheap extension anyway, because if the Wizards were improved similarly to the Trailblazers level of improvement: well, what if that landed us in the sixers or spurs slot pre-lottery instead of #2 overall? Not something anyone should want to think about, but definitely a scenario that in many worlds might have played out (we keep Deni, AND we move up to 2 or 3?!?! Yes, definitely possible).

A sad but painful truth of the #soWizards type... I "feel like" karma would have given us one of the two top picks if we didn't mess with the hoop universe.

We need a different color for this type of post. A #soWizards color - not the sarcastic green color. Like a sad red or something...

[nate33]

We'll know for sure in '29, or close to it. The punishing horror show that was the '25 lottery definitely put some wood to the value of the trade. I can't even take solace in the knowledge that we would have never gotten value of the cheap extension anyway, because if the Wizards were improved similarly to the Trailblazers level of improvement: well, what if that landed us in the sixers or spurs slot pre-lottery instead of #2 overall? Not something anyone should want to think about, but definitely a scenario that in many worlds might have played out (we keep Deni, AND we move up to 2 or 3?!?! Yes, definitely possible).

This is the point I was trying to make all season long. The reality of the lottery is far different than the perception. Finishing in the bottom 4 does not at all guarantee you that you will land a high pick. It’s better just to hang on to good young talent if you have it.

[mhd]

We'll know for sure in '29, or close to it. The punishing horror show that was the '25 lottery definitely put some wood to the value of the trade. I can't even take solace in the knowledge that we would have never gotten value of the cheap extension anyway, because if the Wizards were improved similarly to the Trailblazers level of improvement: well, what if that landed us in the sixers or spurs slot pre-lottery instead of #2 overall? Not something anyone should want to think about, but definitely a scenario that in many worlds might have played out (we keep Deni, AND we move up to 2 or 3?!?! Yes, definitely possible).

This is the point I was trying to make all season long. The reality of the lottery is far different than the perception. Finishing in the bottom 4 does not at all guarantee you that you will land a high pick. It’s better just to hang on to good young talent if you have it.

I hated the trade, but understood. I think Deni on the team makes us get the 8-9th pick with the other teams jumping us. With that said, a healthy Deni on the team next year really makes that pick in danger of going to the Knicks IMO with the volatility of the lottery. Right now, I see us firmly in the worst team in the league territory with Utah.

[The Consiglieri]

We'll know for sure in '29, or close to it. The punishing horror show that was the '25 lottery definitely put some wood to the value of the trade. I can't even take solace in the knowledge that we would have never gotten value of the cheap extension anyway, because if the Wizards were improved similarly to the Trailblazers level of improvement: well, what if that landed us in the sixers or spurs slot pre-lottery instead of #2 overall? Not something anyone should want to think about, but definitely a scenario that in many worlds might have played out (we keep Deni, AND we move up to 2 or 3?!?! Yes, definitely possible).

This is the point I was trying to make all season long. The reality of the lottery is far different than the perception. Finishing in the bottom 4 does not at all guarantee you that you will land a high pick. It’s better just to hang on to good young talent if you have it.

I never failed to see the truth of your argument, I just always viewed the possibility of falling to 6, as an incredibly terrible result, and one that was 1 in 5 likely if we didn't keep ourselves worse than Utah, and lo and behold, I was right too, we did fall to 6, 1 spot below the sweet spot for a crazy pick in the top 4, which is always possible (granted, maybe slot 5 might let them pass too, I just tend to doubt it).

[dckingsfan]

We'll know for sure in '29, or close to it. The punishing horror show that was the '25 lottery definitely put some wood to the value of the trade. I can't even take solace in the knowledge that we would have never gotten value of the cheap extension anyway, because if the Wizards were improved similarly to the Trailblazers level of improvement: well, what if that landed us in the sixers or spurs slot pre-lottery instead of #2 overall? Not something anyone should want to think about, but definitely a scenario that in many worlds might have played out (we keep Deni, AND we move up to 2 or 3?!?! Yes, definitely possible).

This is the point I was trying to make all season long. The reality of the lottery is far different than the perception. Finishing in the bottom 4 does not at all guarantee you that you will land a high pick. It’s better just to hang on to good young talent if you have it.

I never failed to see the truth of your argument, I just always viewed the possibility of falling to 6, as an incredibly terrible result, and one that was 1 in 5 likely if we didn't keep ourselves worse than Utah, and lo and behold, I was right too, we did fall to 6, 1 spot below the sweet spot for a crazy pick in the top 4, which is always possible (granted, maybe slot 5 might let them pass too, I just tend to doubt it).

Given this is a (IMO) two person draft and then good through 20 or so (yes, likely better picks at the top), I always felt that if you are the worst through 6th worse you still have good odds for the top and top 4 pick.

Your odds of getting the 1st overall go from 14% to 9%... smh. Keep your best players if you can.

The only think that would have been fine with me if the FO came out and said, "we think Bub is going to be REALLY special". Then fine - take a swing. But that doesn't seem like how they were thinking It seems like they just underestimated Deni's abilities or they felt that he would add wins and they wanted to tank hard. Both of those arguments to me are

[doclinkin]

The only think that would have been fine with me if the FO came out and said, "we think Bub is going to be REALLY special". Then fine - take a swing. But that doesn't seem like how they were thinking

I think that is exactly what they were thinking.

They've said so in interviews that they thought he had that it factor, something special. Yes I think they liked a few guys who would probably be available, but interviews suggest they really liked Bub and moved whatever they had to to get him. That trade talks went into overdrive after they brought him in for an interview.

And I still think they see him that way. Kid is going to be special.

I have run it out in a few threads but here most of all, the various ways that Bub has overperformed for a rookie teenager. I think fans really can't see how good he has been because of hurt feelings about Deni. That and the fact that the team is intentionally terrible. But mostly because he is super young.

This was what I said in the Dawkins thread:

Granted there are many more NBA talents of any age that amount to nothing than there are that grow into good players. But with few exceptions, the teenagers who make it to the NBA start out bad before they grow into anything. Studies show the breakout year for NBA players is 23-24 years old. That's generally 3 years into their pro career. That carries form with the teenage players as well, which means they tend to break out a year or two later. The difference is their peak years are generally longer, and their ultimate production is typically higher after they do break out.

Here compare for yourself a few talented teenagers who jumped to the NBA: Bub vs Beal vs Kobe vs TMac

For all that Bub gets crushed for not scoring on the interior, Bub Carrington had a better 2pt FG% than TMac Kobe and Bradley Beal (in their rookie years). Better eFG% than all of them. Rebounded better than any but the 6'9" TMac. Despite being the shortest of this bunch. Passed better with fewer TO's per 100 possessions. Better offensive rating than all but TMAc.

Point being not that he is going to be a Hall of Famer and surefire all star, but that you have no idea the upside of the kid. Teenage players suck in the NBA. The key is how much and how consistently they develop. You can doubt that he has much upside, okay, but it is highly likely his 3pt shooting improves. His synergy stats showed he actually hits a better percentage from three off the dribble than he does on catch and shoot play. The more he handles the ball the more efficient he is. As a starter Bub hit .364 from 3. Better than league average of .360. And far better than his .256 off the bench. You're seeing a cat struggle to adjust to a new role, catch and shoot is not his game.

I can track down the study but he projects to be a highly efficient 3pt shooter over time. Potentially elite off the dribble. Already his midrange and long-two percentages rank among the league leaders. Yeah those are bad shots but he hits them efficiently, so for him they're good shots. His mid-range shot % is the exact same as if he dunked the ball, above 55%. As he gets bigger and stronger the 46% he shoots from long two should convert to a high percentage from one step further back behind the 3pt line. Studies show the best indicator of NBA 3pt efficiency from young players is their FT%. Bub had 3 months where he shot 90% or better from the FT line.

Young players get better. The younger they are as rookies, if they are above average in a few categories, they project to be highly productive as they improve. Bub is six months younger than Deni was. But had a better rookie season.
...
What you look for at that age is simply flashes that they can do the thing. Not that they can do it consistently, yet. You simply want to see the ability. The rest is putting it together over time. I will say from what I can see, Bub projects to have multiple triple doubles in his career, and grow into a high percentage 3pt shooter. Offseason improvement is key, and him being allowed to carry a bigger role as a lead ballhandling guard. That and stocking the team with reliable finishers, especially in the front court.

I think his detractors are going to be surprised at his development. There's another key factor I didn't touch on above. Bub led all rookies in minutes this year, for most of the year was the leader in minutes per game. Even with that workload he played all 82 games.

That sort of durability is huge in a player's development. Nothing helps more than on court experience. One of the frustrations with Deni's development was that he was not given minutes to play through mistakes. He also got injured a few times. Players who stay healthy benefit not only from on court minutes, but are able to work on their games off court instead of rehabbing. That recovery and durability is something of a superpower. This is why athletes take creatine or steroids, to be able to recover quicker and return to work. The best of the best in the NBA are able to constantly improve, if you are never on the training table or getting Xrays and recovery treatment you have an advantage both on court and off. Bub says he played every game in highschool and college, prides himself in never missing a game. There are players who are just built for it, or their game is just smart and puts them in the right place all the time. Or just tough, the same way he outrebounds bigger players consistently.

I would not be startled to see Bub get significantly physically stronger every year. Refine his jumper as well. In my family they always said 'when you have your health you have everything'. In the NBA the players that reach the pinnacle are the ones who adjust and grow every year. Players who are built different that way have an advantage over everyone else.

[payitforward]

Still worth trading so the franchise could tank to pick 6th?

You bet your money and you take your chances. It's not a guarantee any more than how good Carrington is justifies trading or not trading Deni for a pick we didn't know would become Bub.

Said every degenerate gambler ever.

Don't you think maybe you're taking this a little bit too far?

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

You bet your money and you take your chances. It's not a guarantee any more than how good Carrington is justifies trading or not trading Deni for a pick we didn't know would become Bub.

Said every degenerate gambler ever.

Don't you think maybe you're taking this a little bit too far?

No I don't.

I'm not talking to penbeast personally but just this mentality, that during a rebuild, that you take dumb risks and gamble especially when the trade was of a young, still improving prospect that really doesn't have a weakness (eh maybe turnovers I guess) in his game. This constant gamble until you get lucky mentality logic is chalk full of holes yet I keep hearing it around these parts without a hint of the downside, like gambling until you throw away a really good player, on a great contract, who is young enough to be a key piece moving forward, and who would have been a great role model for the other young guys on the team. So just like the husband who gambles away the down payment for the new home or juniors college tuition in Las Vegas, and even though he thinks he had a chance to win big, still has to explain it to his wife. Which is part of the reason we talk so much about this, because this front office has never been pressed in the least on the matter by anyone covering this team because that's what the media and many of the fans do around here. Served hot **** sandwiches and told to enjoy it and don't ask questions because we're the professionals.

Again, he said change, and that's all many of you cared about whatever the result.

[Kanyewest]

Something to monitor down the line. The 2029 first rounder that the Wizards acquired will be the 2nd most favorable of three first round picks between Portland, Boston, and Milwaukee (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40440170/sources-wizards-trading-forward-deni-avdija-trail-blazers). Not sure if there are protections on the Bucks or Celtics picks but interesting to note that both the Celtics and the Bucks had key players who suffered Achilles injuries that could improve the value of the pick.

[The Consiglieri]

Something to monitor down the line. The 2029 first rounder that the Wizards acquired will be the 2nd most favorable of three first round picks between Portland, Boston, and Milwaukee (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40440170/sources-wizards-trading-forward-deni-avdija-trail-blazers). Not sure if there are protections on the Bucks or Celtics picks but interesting to note that both the Celtics and the Bucks had key players who suffered Achilles injuries that could improve the value of the pick.

I think it's more than reasonable to expect that Bucks pick to be the highest of the 3, and the Portland pick to be the middle pick. I'd be pretty shocked if Portland doesn't pass Milwaukee eventually. Only possible way that doesn't happen is if the Bucks pull off a mega steal of a trade for Giannis, and have a long runway with the picks/prospects they get in return. My expectation is that the pick pre lottery will probably fall in the 5-20 zone, more particularly probably 5-14.

[nate33]

Something to monitor down the line. The 2029 first rounder that the Wizards acquired will be the 2nd most favorable of three first round picks between Portland, Boston, and Milwaukee (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40440170/sources-wizards-trading-forward-deni-avdija-trail-blazers). Not sure if there are protections on the Bucks or Celtics picks but interesting to note that both the Celtics and the Bucks had key players who suffered Achilles injuries that could improve the value of the pick.

Good point. I had assumed it was a given that the Celtics pick would be very late, but suddenly that doesn’t look like a certainty anymore. Porzingis looks cooked already and Jrue will be washed in 3 more years. White will be 34 by then Brown will be 32 with a lot of mileage. Pritchard and Tatum are the only guys who will still be in their prime, and now there is some doubt about Tatum.

[GoneShammGone]

Quick question... since I'm too lazy to Google/grok it, I'll ask here. If we had kept Deni until the end of his contract, would we have had "Bird rights", or would he have been a UFA?

[The Consiglieri]

Something to monitor down the line. The 2029 first rounder that the Wizards acquired will be the 2nd most favorable of three first round picks between Portland, Boston, and Milwaukee (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40440170/sources-wizards-trading-forward-deni-avdija-trail-blazers). Not sure if there are protections on the Bucks or Celtics picks but interesting to note that both the Celtics and the Bucks had key players who suffered Achilles injuries that could improve the value of the pick.

Good point. I had assumed it was a given that the Celtics pick would be very late, but suddenly that doesn’t look like a certainty anymore. Porzingis looks cooked already and Jrue will be washed in 3 more years. White will be 34 by then Brown will be 32 with a lot of mileage. Pritchard and Tatum are the only guys who will still be in their prime, and now there is some doubt about Tatum.

Nice points, from my end, I'm not sure. I've seen a few guys come back from it, particularly when it hits them pre-30's and Tatum won't turn 28 until the spring of next year, so, decent chance he's himself by fall '26 or winter '26-'27. So it is pretty interesting. What are they by then? Do they just tear it down? They have to know that the Tatum lead side isn't really viable probably until November-February '26-'27, so, it's definitely an interesting connundrum.

That being said, I think Milwaukee's far more cooked post-Giannis, and Portland is in the dreaded and quite nebulous 30ish win zone in a West that only gets better and better with time (the lottery primarily benefited western teams, sending the two tier 1 prospects into the West, yet again), so really, how good is Portland actually going to be considering other teams strengths? I imagine they will remain a 26-34 win caliber side no matter how good Deni is, or some draft picks because the comp in that conference is simply far too murderous to deal with.

So for now anyway, I'm gonna assume its Portland or Milwaukee that is second worst, like the Lakers, Boston usually finds a way through problems via trades and FA's, but Milwaukee sure as hell isn't an option for trades, and Portland isn't much more popular....Will be interesting to watch. Are the other pick swaps we own all ours, with no weird 2nd best of 3 picks bull----?

[pcbothwel]

Quick question... since I'm too lazy to Google/grok it, I'll ask here. If we had kept Deni until the end of his contract, would we have had "Bird rights", or would he have been a UFA?

Yes...lol UFA with bird rights