2020 Draft

[payitforward]

Question for WizarDynasty -- have you looked at Reggie Perry?

I'd be interested in what you think of him.

Note: only 20 years old & has played 2 years in college. Good as a Freshman, better his Sophomore year. Good on the U19 team. IMO, going to go 35-45. I think he will be a solid rotation player in the NBA & has potential to be better than that.

[WizarDynasty]

more one handed hooks

[payitforward]

Thanks -- good stuff....

I'll be interested to see how he does in the league.

[WizarDynasty]

Thanks -- good stuff....

I'll be interested to see how he does in the league.

He needs to work on developing an 90 degree hip bend, and be able to maintain that hip bend while moving for long durations while dribbling. It would open his game up alot, but his bone structure looks like its fully developed, doubt he will be able to ever achieve that. Needed to start much much younger.

[Jamaaliver]

Video Breakdown: Malachi Flynn

Position: PG | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 185 | Team: San Diego State | Class: Junior

Watch on YouTube

Strengths

• Pick-and-Roll Creation
• Passing + Vision
• Feel for the Game
• Shooting Versatility
• Free Throw Shooting
• Ball Handling
• Engaged + Willing Defender
• Footwork

Concerns

• Average Athleticism
• Positional Size
• Length
• Defensive Switchability

Offensive Synopsis
The most prominent part of Flynn’s offense is his ability to run the pick-and-roll. He ranked in the 96th percentile as a pick-and-roll handler as a junior, in which he demonstrated reliability as both a scorer and a passer. Although he’s only 6’1, he does a really nice job attacking the lane and finishing. He attempted only 21% of his field-goal attempts at the rim, but converted 68.2% of them, which ranks 3rd among other guards in the 2020 class. He doesn’t have elite explosiveness, but Flynn is really crafty in the way he creates advantages. His burst and agility help him to split defenders and beat his man off the dribble, while his footwork and patience make manipulating drop defenders easy. I love watching him snake his way through the lane, often hitting shots that leave you in awe. He likely won’t pressure the rim with high volume at the next level, but the tools and ability to finish with either hand make it an option when necessary.

Spoiler:

One thing that consistently popped for me was his ability to change speeds in tight spaces. He is incredibly shifty and can create enough separation for a jumper or open a passing lane, and only needs the smallest of opportunities to take advantage. His combination of vision and headiness, smart decision making, and aversion to mistakes, helped him drive one of the best offenses in the country. He distributes all over the floor; he can hit teammates on the wings, in the corner, and is consistent with pocket and over the top passes to roll men. Because he’s not the tallest or longest guard, he’s made eye manipulation and fakes a huge part of his repertoire, and developed a terrific use of either hand. Flynn is someone I trust to run a second unit fairly early in his career because he understands when to, and when not to, push the pace as a ball handler.

Flynn also projects as a decent shooter at the next level. With fantastic touch on runners and floaters, and a free-throw percentage of 85.7% (120-for-140), I believe that his three-point percentage will end up, within reason, similar to his 2019-20 numbers. He connected on 37.3% (76-of-204) of his threes, 63% of which were assisted. When he’s locked in, he’s a tremendous pull-up shooter due to his footwork and ability to stop on a dime. He also ranked in the 83rd percentile as a catch-and-shooter, which is why I feel he can be a valuable off-ball presence. With only 34 recorded off-screen possessions, it’s hard to fully grasp his potential, but with limited volume he shot well, connecting on 40% of his attempts. Flynn reads screens well and has great feel, so he’s able to lose his man often with creativity. What many scouts like about Flynn’s shooting is that he has bonafide NBA range. There’s no look, no spot on the floor, that he doesn’t think he can’t hit; a mentality required to be successful at the next level. One of the few concerns I do have with his shooting comes down to positional size. At 6’1” and average length, a number of his looks are easy to contest. At the NBA level, he may run into some trouble getting off shots under duress.

Defensive Synopsis
...he’s one of the more underrated point-of-attack defenders in the class. He’s not overpowering physically, but the technique is there, and his willingness to fight through screens and compete is evident. Even when he’s beaten, Flynn never quits on a play, always providing effort until the whistle by recovering and contesting every shot he can. With good feet and quick hands, he was able to log 56 steals this season, never letting his opponents have anything easy. He’s a formidable perimeter defender, but when his man can get downhill, that causes some problems. The lack of positional size hurts him in the way he gets bumped off spot, so it will be imperative for him to employ his lateral quickness and maintain staying in front of his man.

Spoiler:

Off the ball, I appreciate Flynn’s willingness to stunt and dig when he can; it’s clear that providing value, no matter what it looks like, is the intent with each play. With his excellent IQ and awareness, he recognizes rotations and positioning quickly which is great to see, especially when he jumps into passing lanes. His aggression does cause negative plays occasionally, however.

Watch on YouTube

Outlook
The organization that brings Flynn in is getting a grinder with a relentless work ethic, as well as a guy with swagger and skill on the court. His shooting versatility and ability to play both on and off-ball make him a viable option for a team in need of a punch. Malachi brings a maturity that would coalesce well with any locker room and allow him to contribute in whatever way asked of him. If a team needs a reliable backup point guard with starter upside for the near future, Malachi Flynn could be their guy.

Babcock Hoops

[payitforward]

Hey, good to see you again -- it's been a little while.

Do you have any sense of what the Hawks are likely to do at #6?

As to Malachi Flynn -- love the kid. If he is there at #37, I hope we nab him.

[WizarDynasty]

.

[Ruzious]

Video Breakdown: Malachi Flynn

Position: PG | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 185 | Team: San Diego State | Class: Junior

Watch on YouTube

Strengths

• Pick-and-Roll Creation
• Passing + Vision
• Feel for the Game
• Shooting Versatility
• Free Throw Shooting
• Ball Handling
• Engaged + Willing Defender
• Footwork

Concerns

• Average Athleticism
• Positional Size
• Length
• Defensive Switchability

Offensive Synopsis
The most prominent part of Flynn’s offense is his ability to run the pick-and-roll. He ranked in the 96th percentile as a pick-and-roll handler as a junior, in which he demonstrated reliability as both a scorer and a passer. Although he’s only 6’1, he does a really nice job attacking the lane and finishing. He attempted only 21% of his field-goal attempts at the rim, but converted 68.2% of them, which ranks 3rd among other guards in the 2020 class. He doesn’t have elite explosiveness, but Flynn is really crafty in the way he creates advantages. His burst and agility help him to split defenders and beat his man off the dribble, while his footwork and patience make manipulating drop defenders easy. I love watching him snake his way through the lane, often hitting shots that leave you in awe. He likely won’t pressure the rim with high volume at the next level, but the tools and ability to finish with either hand make it an option when necessary.

Spoiler:

One thing that consistently popped for me was his ability to change speeds in tight spaces. He is incredibly shifty and can create enough separation for a jumper or open a passing lane, and only needs the smallest of opportunities to take advantage. His combination of vision and headiness, smart decision making, and aversion to mistakes, helped him drive one of the best offenses in the country. He distributes all over the floor; he can hit teammates on the wings, in the corner, and is consistent with pocket and over the top passes to roll men. Because he’s not the tallest or longest guard, he’s made eye manipulation and fakes a huge part of his repertoire, and developed a terrific use of either hand. Flynn is someone I trust to run a second unit fairly early in his career because he understands when to, and when not to, push the pace as a ball handler.

Flynn also projects as a decent shooter at the next level. With fantastic touch on runners and floaters, and a free-throw percentage of 85.7% (120-for-140), I believe that his three-point percentage will end up, within reason, similar to his 2019-20 numbers. He connected on 37.3% (76-of-204) of his threes, 63% of which were assisted. When he’s locked in, he’s a tremendous pull-up shooter due to his footwork and ability to stop on a dime. He also ranked in the 83rd percentile as a catch-and-shooter, which is why I feel he can be a valuable off-ball presence. With only 34 recorded off-screen possessions, it’s hard to fully grasp his potential, but with limited volume he shot well, connecting on 40% of his attempts. Flynn reads screens well and has great feel, so he’s able to lose his man often with creativity. What many scouts like about Flynn’s shooting is that he has bonafide NBA range. There’s no look, no spot on the floor, that he doesn’t think he can’t hit; a mentality required to be successful at the next level. One of the few concerns I do have with his shooting comes down to positional size. At 6’1” and average length, a number of his looks are easy to contest. At the NBA level, he may run into some trouble getting off shots under duress.

Defensive Synopsis
...he’s one of the more underrated point-of-attack defenders in the class. He’s not overpowering physically, but the technique is there, and his willingness to fight through screens and compete is evident. Even when he’s beaten, Flynn never quits on a play, always providing effort until the whistle by recovering and contesting every shot he can. With good feet and quick hands, he was able to log 56 steals this season, never letting his opponents have anything easy. He’s a formidable perimeter defender, but when his man can get downhill, that causes some problems. The lack of positional size hurts him in the way he gets bumped off spot, so it will be imperative for him to employ his lateral quickness and maintain staying in front of his man.

Spoiler:

Off the ball, I appreciate Flynn’s willingness to stunt and dig when he can; it’s clear that providing value, no matter what it looks like, is the intent with each play. With his excellent IQ and awareness, he recognizes rotations and positioning quickly which is great to see, especially when he jumps into passing lanes. His aggression does cause negative plays occasionally, however.

Watch on YouTube

Outlook
The organization that brings Flynn in is getting a grinder with a relentless work ethic, as well as a guy with swagger and skill on the court. His shooting versatility and ability to play both on and off-ball make him a viable option for a team in need of a punch. Malachi brings a maturity that would coalesce well with any locker room and allow him to contribute in whatever way asked of him. If a team needs a reliable backup point guard with starter upside for the near future, Malachi Flynn could be their guy.

Babcock Hoops

He is another guy with bad hips, he is often out of control. His bad bend keeps him from being able to stop after he accelerates. He also has stiff elbow on his jumper. He doesn't have length to bother shots, and he is going to get abused when any guard with size backs him down during clutch moments in a game. He is good as a practice team guy but he is not going to give you any advantages against playoff caliber teams if wall goes down.

Are we watching the same guy? Watch at the 1.37 mark. Flynn is as under control as it gets.

[WizarDynasty]

better controlled momentum

[Dat2U]

Tier 1 - 0 total (Top 1-3 pick any year)

None

Tier 2 - 1 total (Top 5 pick most years)

*PG LaMelo Ball
Best playmaker in the draft & he's 6-8. Defensive concerns are overblown.

Tier 3 - 5 total (Mid-to-late lottery)

*C Onyeka Okongwu, James Wiseman
Okongwu gets the edge on the defensive end.
*PF Deni Avdija
I have him a PF in time where his play making, skill and athleticism stand out.
*PG Killian Hayes, Tyrese Haliburton
Hayes would be more of an upside play. Haliburton will be rock solid from day one.

Tier 4 - 7 total (Mid 1st round)

*C Precious Achiuwa
*PF Paul Reed
Reminds me alot of a young Siakam.
*SF Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey
Nesmith is the best shooter. Bey is the jack-of-all-trades.
*SG Josh Green
Projects as a more reliable two way option than Edwards.
*PG R.J. Hampton, Malachi Flynn
Yep i'm on the Flynn train. Best PG at the P&R in the draft. Hampton may also be underrated.

Tier 5 - 21 total (Late 1st/early 2nd)

*C Vernon Carey Jr., Jalen Smith, Xavier Tillman
Good trio here. Tillman is the best defender. Jalen the most polished offensive weapon & Carey has the most upside.
*PF Obi Toppin, Aleksej Pokusevski
Toppin is weirdest prospect I've scouted in some years in terms of his athleticism. Poku is the international man of mystery - probably hiding for a good reason.
*SF Tyler Bey, Desmond Bane, Issac Okoro
Bey is toolsy. Bane is a big SG who can probably play the SF - gives me Jared Dudley vibes.
*SG Anthony Edwards, Cassius Stanley, Leandro Bolmaro, Devin Vassell, Jahmi'us Ramsey, Tyrese Maxey
Low on Edwards work ethic, higher than most on Stanley. He popped when I watched him. Bolmaro is a toolsy project. Vassell is Josh Childress-lite.
*PG Tyrell Terry, Cole Anthony, Cassius Winston, Payton Pritchard, Grant Riller, Devon Dotson, Kira Lewis Jr.
The draft is loaded with backup quality Gs. Winston, Dotson, Pritchard & Riller will probably have the least growing pains.

Tier 6 - 20 total (Early-to-mid 2nd)

*C Killian Tillie, Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Stewart, Reggie Perry, Daniel Oturu, Zeke Nnaji
*PF Patrick Williams
*SF Jaden McDaniels, Elijah Hughes, Robert Woodard II
McDaniels is a high upside play.
*SG Immanuel Quickley, Sam Merrill, Nate Hinton, Isaiah Joe, Skylar Mays
*PG Tre Jones, Theo Maledon, Markus Howard, Ashton Hagans, Nico Mannion
Draft is loaded with backup quality guards that will be available in the 50s and potentially as undrafted free agents.

[WizarDynasty]

prefer starter to bench player labels

[Jamaaliver]

Hey, good to see you again -- it's been a little while.

Do you have any sense of what the Hawks are likely to do at #6?

Thanks for the kind words, PIF.

Yeah, once ATL was officially disinvited to the ORL bubble, it seemed like a good time to finally take a break from the daily grind of rooting for a bad basketball team.

As far as the #6 pick, our GM has publicly stated that "If we keep it, we'll draft best player available."

Likely indicating that we are open to unloading that pick for a productive veteran. he has similarly stated we'll be looking for guys a little older and under contract for a few years, comparable to our acquisition of Clint Capela using our extra 1st rounder via Brooklyn. Keep in mind that our GM has traded lottery picks in both 2019 and 2018 in favor of specific players.

Conversely, The Athletic has linked us to Okoro, Haliburton and Okongwu on multiple occasions...on the off chance we keep the pick.

Personally, I'm hoping for Devin Vassell -- kid reminds me of Khris Middleton or a new age Eddie Jones.

[payitforward]

Haven't read Eddie Jones' name in a while!

I used to think Travis Schlenk really had something as a FO guy, but his trades & picks on draft day last year made no sense at all to me....

[dckingsfan]

Spoiler:

Tier 1 - 0 total (Top 1-3 pick any year)

None

Tier 2 - 1 total (Top 5 pick most years)

*PG LaMelo Ball
Best playmaker in the draft & he's 6-8. Defensive concerns are overblown.

Tier 3 - 5 total (Mid-to-late lottery)

*C Onyeka Okongwu, James Wiseman
Okongwu gets the edge on the defensive end.
*PF Deni Avdija
I have him a PF in time where his play making, skill and athleticism stand out.
*PG Killian Hayes, Tyrese Haliburton
Hayes would be more of an upside play. Haliburton will be rock solid from day one.

Tier 4 - 7 total (Mid 1st round)

*C Precious Achiuwa
*PF Paul Reed
Reminds me alot of a young Siakam.
*SF Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey
Nesmith is the best shooter. Bey is the jack-of-all-trades.
*SG Josh Green
Projects as a more reliable two way option than Edwards.
*PG R.J. Hampton, Malachi Flynn
Yep i'm on the Flynn train. Best PG at the P&R in the draft. Hampton may also be underrated.

Tier 5 - 21 total (Late 1st/early 2nd)

*C Vernon Carey Jr., Jalen Smith, Xavier Tillman
Good trio here. Tillman is the best defender. Jalen the most polished offensive weapon & Carey has the most upside.
*PF Obi Toppin, Aleksej Pokusevski
Toppin is weirdest prospect I've scouted in some years in terms of his athleticism. Poku is the international man of mystery - probably hiding for a good reason.
*SF Tyler Bey, Desmond Bane, Issac Okoro
Bey is toolsy. Bane is a big SG who can probably play the SF - gives me Jared Dudley vibes.
*SG Anthony Edwards, Cassius Stanley, Leandro Bolmaro, Devin Vassell, Jahmi'us Ramsey, Tyrese Maxey
Low on Edwards work ethic, higher than most on Stanley. He popped when I watched him. Bolmaro is a toolsy project. Vassell is Josh Childress-lite.
*PG Tyrell Terry, Cole Anthony, Cassius Winston, Payton Pritchard, Grant Riller, Devon Dotson, Kira Lewis Jr.
The draft is loaded with backup quality Gs. Winston, Dotson, Pritchard & Riller will probably have the least growing pains.

Tier 6 - 20 total (Early-to-mid 2nd)

*C Killian Tillie, Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Stewart, Reggie Perry, Daniel Oturu, Zeke Nnaji
*PF Patrick Williams
*SF Jaden McDaniels, Elijah Hughes, Robert Woodard II
McDaniels is a high upside play.
*SG Immanuel Quickley, Sam Merrill, Nate Hinton, Isaiah Joe, Skylar Mays
*PG Tre Jones, Theo Maledon, Markus Howard, Ashton Hagans, Nico Mannion
Draft is loaded with backup quality guards that will be available in the 50s and potentially as undrafted free agents.

I gave up on tiers along time ago.
I think you have Onyeka Okongwu rated to highly. I don't see him as starter, he is more like a 6th.
He does alot of bullying and he really does have the size, strength or explosiveness to do that in the nba. He is horrible shooting form. I rarely ever saw him shoot off the dribble, or take a slow footed big out in space and light him up with a sweet stroke. He is like a 6th man.
Wiseman may be a starter, but he has a poor motor, and he doesn't have alot of functional strength. Wiseman is like a shooting guard, that had a late growth spurt. He has spent his life banging in the post. He has alot of guard skills, so if you want Center that plays like a guard by instinct, that's Wiseman. If you hated all the things about kelly Oubre style of play, can't keep a hip bend, weak core, plays OC, poor shot mechanics and landing mechanics. That's haliburton. I liked what I saw from Kilian Hayes. Kind of reminds me of myself so I am biased, but i like his ability to stop and be fully in control with his dribble. HIs shot seems a little stiff, and I would prefer that he was longer but he has alot intangibles that I look for. Good hip bend. It does appear that he has problem with his right knee, tendinities or he is doing something that is causing wear on his left knee. So in top tier i already see two non starter or 6th man players Okongwu. Wiseman doesn't really have the motor or lower leg strength to be a starter yet. Haiburton is a bench player. Killian is a bench player.

The real question, is the player an nba starter, a 6th man, or deep bench guy. Who cares if a guy is a tier 3 bench guy. I think alot of times, these GMs are just looking for good locker room presence guys on the bench who don't cause trouble.
I think we get in trouble when you create tiers for bench players. A bench player who doesn't have physical tools to be a two way player.. is that player even worth ranking at the end of the day?

On thing that Tier evaluations does is it makes you think about the picks in terms of what to do with your pick. If you truly believe there are no Tier 1 or even Tier 2 prospects, you trade down with a high pick. If you think there are multiple Tier one picks, you might try to move up...

[payitforward]

A person who thinks he can rate a sizable number of people -- say 15 or 20 -- in exact order of excellence in any field of endeavor, any even slightly complex human activity, is fooling himself. Period.

Anyone who thinks he can do it with the prospects for the NBA draft in a given year is living an illusion. These are kids who have by no means attained their best level of ability or play (at least in most cases, maybe almost all cases) for the obvious reason that they are not mature -- physically, psychologically, emotionally, intellectually, or in their ability to control their lives.

That's why the pick order in any draft is not particularly close to the order of how good players turn out to be. No other reason is required to explain the fact, but it's a good idea to accept it -- since it's a reality, & it always makes sense to accept reality rather than thinking you have a unique power to change it. Or even to see deeply into it in ways others cannot.

This has nothing to do with basketball. I'm a writer -- you can't imagine how many young writers I've seen, who looked to be extremely gifted but managed to get nothing much done. Same phenomenon. True in every field.

Not to mention the role chance plays in absolutely everything. Who you meet, how you interact with people, when & how opportunities come your way -- & of what kind & where you happen to be when they present themselves. Tell me, where would you be if your parents hadn't happened to meet?

That's why you put guys on tiers instead of fooling yourself that you can sequence them exactly. & that's also why you try to help your chances of coming away with at least one good player by making moves to get two or three picks. It's not always possible; nothing is always possible. But, it helps to have an idea of how things work.

[WizarDynasty]

Anyone who thinks he can do it with the prospects for the NBA draft in a given year is living an illusion

.

If I am looking at 100 quarterbacks. My entire organization fate depends on selecting the best one. I have watched football all of my life, I even played a little bit of flag football.

Wo would i trust to select the best quarterback? Tom Brady or Jerry Rice? They are both Hall of Fame Football players.

Which would would I trust to select the best wide receiver?

"Anyone who does have extensive experience playing the position that is being drafted for....is the part you are missing from your statement.

[DCZards]

Dat, thanks for your tiers. Always enjoy comparing them to my projections. I don’t take anywhere near the deep dive that you take so your analysis is appreciated.

I believe we have similar thoughts on Achiuwa, especially his potential as the defender and rim protector that the Zards desperately need. I differ on Vassell though. He no doubt has to get bigger and stronger but I expect his combination of defense and 3 pt shooting to transfer well to the NBA game.

The guy that I’m particularly high on is Saddiq Bey. Most mocks have him in the 12-16 range He moves his feet extremely well on defense and is a plus 40% shooter from 3 pt range. Bey already has a strong, muscular body. As you note, he’s a little bit of a “jack-of-all-trades.”

Ideally, the Zards would trade down from 9 and pick up a couple of later first round picks…as PIF and other have urged/suggested. But since it’s much more likely they’ll be picking at 9 my top choices for the Zards are Wiseman or Okongwu (both of whom will likely be gone), Achiuwa, Vassell, S. Bey and Haliburton.

[payitforward]

Anyone who thinks he can do it with the prospects for the NBA draft in a given year is living an illusion

.
If I am looking at 100 quarterbacks. My entire organization fate depends on selecting the best one. I have watched football all of my life, I even played a little bit of flag football.

Who would i trust to select the best quarterback? Tom Brady or Jerry Rice? They are both Hall of Fame Football players.

Which would would I trust to select the best wide receiver?

"Anyone who does have extensive experience playing the position that is being drafted for....is the part you are missing from your statement.

This is a very good point, WD, thanks. But, I meant something a little different. Maybe I didn't express myself clearly enough.

If Jerry Rice looks at a bunch of wide receiver prospects (i.e. a big number but not so many that he couldn't devote the necessary attention to each of them), I don't doubt he could pick the best one. If he did it year after year I doubt he'd be perfect, because nobody is. But that's not the question. As you point out, the question is "who would I trust?" To whom would I give the job by preference. Jerry Rice in this case. Without hesitation.

But, in the case I had in mind, we've got a bunch of prospects who play every position on the basketball court. I.e. it's a different situation altogether -- & a much more complex undertaking.

For sure, some people are better at player evaluation than others, but there is no one who is "perfect." & drafting is much more than player evaluation. TBH, I can't think of anyone who is truly outstanding, though I might be missing someone.

Let me put it another way: there is no limit to how bad you can be at it! I lived 20 years in SF & was a huge Warriors fan. In 1983, Al Attles & his gang picked Russell Cross at #6. No one in the organization had ever seen him play! Three years earlier, Al had traded the #3 pick in the draft plus the Chief, Robert Parish, for the #1 pick -- in order to select Joe Barry Carroll. That #3 pick brought Boston Kevin McHale. The Warriors also got the #13 pick in the deal & used it on Rickey Brown (who didn't stick).

I met Al Attles; he was no dummy. & he'd been a good NBA player too. Whereas Red Auerbach, who picked his pocket on that deal, was a short slow guy who did play basketball -- he peaked in high school as an "all-Brooklyn" guard .

Auerbach was a master, of course. As a coach, he basically invented the fast break. OTOH, Larry Bird led Indiana for a long time; I don't think he was a very good GM overall, or especially good in the draft, do you? Pretty good player tho.

[payitforward]

Under the influence of WizarDynasty, Zards, Dat, nate & others -- & after spending more time looking at video of him -- I'm starting to come around on Achiuwa. I'm still concerned by how undeveloped his game is --as witnessed by excessive turnovers, really low assists (not that he needs to get a lot of them -- but when the # is this low I worry about BBIQ...), crappy FT% etc. -- same list everyone has on him. Yet, his athleticism, intensity, length, & desire bode well for him.

I would still very much prefer to trade down, but it's not likely & even if we wanted to there's no guarantee that a trade is available.

[Jamaaliver]