NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 6

[Paris41]

Castle isn't going anywhere. They've got no cap problems whatsoever for a while.

It’s a fit problem. They need a lot of help on the wing and in the front court.

They were fortunate to run into a depleted OKC team in the WCF and a Knicks team that didn’t play very hard in game 3 of the finals and gave them a chance to get back into the series.

[nate33]

Castle isn't going anywhere. They've got no cap problems whatsoever for a while.

It’s a fit problem. They need a lot of help on the wing and in the front court.

They were fortunate to run into a depleted OKC team in the WCF and a Knicks team that didn’t play very hard in game 3 of the finals and gave them a chance to get back into the series.

I think Castle is a great fit as their primary point of attack defender and secondary ball handler. They need to dial back his usage a bit because of his turnovers. And it'll be nice if his 3-ball gets more accurate, but he has improved it quite a bit so far.

They just need to move Fox to 6th man and start Harper.

The lineup of Harper, Castle, Vassell, Champagnie, Wemby is elite. The best way to improve it would be to try and trade Keldon Johnson and picks for a 3&D PF with more size and strength than Champagnie. Tari Eason would be a good target. Aaron Gordon would be interesting if Denver decides to reload.

[AFM]

It doesn’t really matter what SAS does. Even if they win their conference again, they’re about to run into a team of Trae Young, Tre Johnson, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, and Alex Sarr. Oh yeah, and Keyshawn George, Will Riley, the other Champagnie, and Bilal Coulibaly coming off the bench. This was probably their only chance at a ring for the next decade or so.

[dobrojim]

Harper is unreal for a one-done rookie.

[FAH1223]

I still can't believe how stupid Fox was last night.

$229M extension should buy you competence in knowing TIME AND SCORE. You're the fastest guy on the court, run the clock!

[montestewart]

It was a weird feeling, since I like the Spurs and the Knicks, I hated seeing the Spurs blow such a lead, but loved seeing the Knicks amazing comeback and victory. Bullets winning title is my greatest Finals memory, but that game was maybe the most exciting I've ever seen, Finals or not.

It's also weird seeing Knicks fans celebrate and realizing you've seen them all on TV or in movies a thousand times. No wonder everyday Knicks fans travel to other cities to see their favorite team. I heard a pair of courtside seats went for $130,000! It's like the luxury yacht of sports.

[FAH1223]

When you are behind, taking that shot on the fast break is the right decision. (Obviously, missing the layup is bad. But it's not stupid.)

Obviously if Fox makes it, they probably win the game.

But he could have run off 4 or 5 more seconds, got fouled and hit the FTs.

[nate33]

When you are behind, taking that shot on the fast break is the right decision. (Obviously, missing the layup is bad. But it's not stupid.)

Obviously if Fox makes it, they probably win the game.

But he could have run off 4 or 5 more seconds, got fouled and hit the FTs.

I get the criticism of Fox. The problem was that it was a 1-point lead, not a 2-point lead. With a 1-point lead, even if he takes and makes the layup, it gives NY the time to tie the game. But if he refrained from shooting and ran out the clock, ultimately he would have been intentionally fouled, leaving less time on the clock and earning high percentage FTA's instead of a contested layup against OG Anunoby.

[Paris41]

Castle isn't going anywhere. They've got no cap problems whatsoever for a while.

It’s a fit problem. They need a lot of help on the wing and in the front court.

They were fortunate to run into a depleted OKC team in the WCF and a Knicks team that didn’t play very hard in game 3 of the finals and gave them a chance to get back into the series.

I think Castle is a great fit as their primary point of attack defender and secondary ball handler. They need to dial back his usage a bit because of his turnovers. And it'll be nice if his 3-ball gets more accurate, but he has improved it quite a bit so far.

They just need to move Fox to 6th man and start Harper.

The lineup of Harper, Castle, Vassell, Champagnie, Wemby is elite. The best way to improve it would be to try and trade Keldon Johnson and picks for a 3&D PF with more size and strength than Champagnie. Tari Eason would be a good target. Aaron Gordon would be interesting if Denver decides to reload.

You think they are just going to move a max player to the bench? Fox is a much better player than Castle.

Gordon would cost 35 million, that might work for next year. Still not sure that’s enough floor spacing next to Wemby. Gordon is a career 33% 3pt shooter, only became a decent shooter in the last 2 years.

The lineup you mentioned has been far from elite in the playoffs, and is only posting a +1.8 net rating. Lineups with Fox have been much better.

The 2 man combo of Harper&Fox has a better on/off than any other combo between Harper/Fox/Castle. Castle has a -8.4 on/off differential in the playoffs. Harper is +9.6, Fox +0.3. Castle has legitimately been a boat anchor.

If anything, they need to just start Fox&Harper together and bring Castle off the bench as a lower usage role player combo guard.

The problem is going to be when they go add an established player like Gordon/Eason, and Castle is expected to get the max because of decent box score stats and winning ROTY. He’s getting traded.

[payitforward]

They did manage to build a 29 point lead with Castle playing heavy first half minutes, so your diagnosis might be premature.

[Kanyewest]

When you are behind, taking that shot on the fast break is the right decision. (Obviously, missing the layup is bad. But it's not stupid.)

Obviously if Fox makes it, they probably win the game.

But he could have run off 4 or 5 more seconds, got fouled and hit the FTs.

I get the criticism of Fox. The problem was that it was a 1-point lead, not a 2-point lead. With a 1-point lead, even if he takes and makes the layup, it gives NY the time to tie the game. But if he refrained from shooting and ran out the clock, ultimately he would have been intentionally fouled, leaving less time on the clock and earning high percentage FTA's instead of a contested layup against OG Anunoby.

The decision making ultimately suffered on both sides because of the fatigue. Jeremy Lin said it is ultimately your habits, good or bad, that show up in the end. Nate Duncan also alluded to that Fox may be afraid of getting fouled at the end of the game, as he threw a pass to Castle instead of getting fouled himself in game 2,which is something he needs to address.

[nate33]

It’s a fit problem. They need a lot of help on the wing and in the front court.

They were fortunate to run into a depleted OKC team in the WCF and a Knicks team that didn’t play very hard in game 3 of the finals and gave them a chance to get back into the series.

I think Castle is a great fit as their primary point of attack defender and secondary ball handler. They need to dial back his usage a bit because of his turnovers. And it'll be nice if his 3-ball gets more accurate, but he has improved it quite a bit so far.

They just need to move Fox to 6th man and start Harper.

The lineup of Harper, Castle, Vassell, Champagnie, Wemby is elite. The best way to improve it would be to try and trade Keldon Johnson and picks for a 3&D PF with more size and strength than Champagnie. Tari Eason would be a good target. Aaron Gordon would be interesting if Denver decides to reload.

You think they are just going to move a max player to the bench? Fox is a much better player than Castle.

Gordon would cost 35 million, that might work for next year. Still not sure that’s enough floor spacing next to Wemby. Gordon is a career 33% 3pt shooter, only became a decent shooter in the last 2 years.

The lineup you mentioned has been far from elite in the playoffs, and is only posting a +1.8 net rating. Lineups with Fox have been much better.

The 2 man combo of Harper&Fox has a better on/off than any other combo between Harper/Fox/Castle. Castle has a -8.4 on/off differential in the playoffs. Harper is +9.6, Fox +0.3. Castle has legitimately been a boat anchor.

If anything, they need to just start Fox&Harper together and bring Castle off the bench as a lower usage role player combo guard.

Sample sizes are too small for playoff 5-man lineups to draw any conclusions.

During the regular season:
Castle/Fox pairing: 1021 mins +9.2 net/100
Castle/Harper pairing: 532 min +9.9 net/100
Fox/Harper pairing: 539 min +7.8 net/100

[Kanyewest]

Gordon would theoretically be better although not sure you can count on him being healthy given that he has been injured the last two postseasons. Also, not sure why the Nuggets would trade for another guard instead of a defensive anchor behind Jokic.

[Paris41]

Playoffs:
Castle/Fox: 397 minutes +31/+1.6
Castle/Harper: 323 minutes +52/+2.4
Fox/Harper: 274 minutes +71/+3.6

Dylan Harper is the truth.

[nate33]

The lineup you mentioned has been far from elite in the playoffs, and is only posting a +1.8 net rating. Lineups with Fox have been much better.

The 2 man combo of Harper&Fox has a better on/off than any other combo between Harper/Fox/Castle. Castle has a -8.4 on/off differential in the playoffs. Harper is +9.6, Fox +0.3. Castle has legitimately been a boat anchor.

If anything, they need to just start Fox&Harper together and bring Castle off the bench as a lower usage role player combo guard.

Sample sizes are too small for playoff 5-man lineups to draw any conclusions.

During the regular season:
Castle/Fox pairing: 1021 mins +9.2 net/100
Castle/Harper pairing: 532 min +9.9 net/100
Fox/Harper pairing: 539 min +7.8 net/100

It dawned on me that these comparisons aren't helpful without Wemby factored because Wemby warps the game so much. It took me a while, but I found data for trio's that incorporate Wemby:

Castle/Fox/Wemby: +12.2 NET (621 minutes)
Castle/Harper/Wemby: +38.3 NET (173 minutes)
Fox/Harper/Wemby: +18.8 NET (193 minutes)

So, as I said, Castle is an excellent fit with Harper and Wemby.

https://databallr.com/wowy/SAS/2026/2026/regular/high/3man/1641705

[nate33]

Gordon would theoretically be better although not sure you can count on him being healthy given that he has been injured the last two postseasons. Also, not sure why the Nuggets would trade for another guard instead of a defensive anchor behind Jokic.

I'm envisioning a Keldon Johnson plus picks for Gordon trade. And only under the premise that Denver is going to blow up the core and try and rebuild around Jokic and younger guys like Watson.

I don't think it's possible to trade Fox for anybody good right now.

[Paris41]

Castle/Fox/Wemby: +12.2 NET (621 minutes)
Castle/Harper/Wemby: +38.3 NET (173 minutes)
Fox/Harper/Wemby: +18.8 NET (193 minutes)

So, as I said, Castle is an excellent fit with Harper and Wemby.

https://databallr.com/wowy/SAS/2026/2026/regular/high/3man/1641705

This is regular season numbers, and an even smaller sample size than the playoff data I just provided..

[nate33]

Castle/Fox/Wemby: +12.2 NET (621 minutes)
Castle/Harper/Wemby: +38.3 NET (173 minutes)
Fox/Harper/Wemby: +18.8 NET (193 minutes)

So, as I said, Castle is an excellent fit with Harper and Wemby.

https://databallr.com/wowy/SAS/2026/2026/regular/high/3man/1641705

This is regular season numbers, and an even smaller sample size than the playoff data I just provided..

Sigh.

C'mon NatP4. You are better than this. The available sample sizes for 3-man combinations are obviously much smaller than the sample sizes for 2-man combinations. That's how statistics work.

If you want to believe larger 2-man sample sizes that ignore the warping presence of Wemby more than smaller sample sizes that factor the existence of Wemby, that's your prerogative. I think independent-minded observers here are going to see the data I provided and acknowledge that the Harper/Castle combination is exceptionally good and Castle is not some kind of chemistry problem here.

And your 2-man data shows nothing definitive. The difference between +1.6, +2.4 and +3.6 is meaningless given the sample sizes. At least with my 3-man data, even assuming broad margins for error, the massive difference between a +38.3 and a +18.8 is noteworthy.

[Dark Faze]

Win or lose, you've got to attach a first and get Fox off the roster in the off-season. It'd be more than worth it.

I also question why Kelly Olynyk can't get minutes. I know he's bad defensively, but Kornet can at best only play a drop defense role and I'd argue not particularly well anyway, and is a flat 0 across the board offensively. Kelly can actually score the ball a little bit and help out the guards. He can shoot the three. In those Robinson minutes if you put Olynyk out there he can pull Mtich from the basket, help out that bench unit.

Wemby is consistently the GOAT defensively, but offensively he's got some Jekyll and Hyde to his game for sure.

[nate33]

Win or lose, you've got to attach a first and get Fox off the roster in the off-season. It'd be more than worth it.

At the moment, I think it would cost two FRP's to unload him.

I think San Antonio will need to be patient. Keep Fox but move him to a 6th man role. He may not like it, but he is the 5th best player on his team. In a year or two, Fox's contract will be shorter and more easily moved. And the memory of his awful playoff performance will recede.