Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[payitforward]

What patterns of improvement indicate that Monroe projects to get better entering his sixth year?

How has Monroe shown that he is the better player?

Other posters have given strong factual support for their assertions regarding Gortat. You have yet to give more than decisively worded opinions to defend your view about Monroe...

Advanced stats have shown that Monroe is indeed better than Gortat by a decent amount when he plays the center position. His development has been slown considerably since the arrival of Drummond.

Don't forget about Al Jefferson as a guy who really showed out once he arrived to a different situation last year. I could see Monroe taking the same step for a different club.

I could see this and you could see that and anyone can see anything they want. But an example of another player doing something is not an indication of any kind about Monroe.

Moreover, no, Monroe's development hasn't been slowed by Drummond. How? Moreover, in '12-13, when Drummond was a rookie and played only 1000minutes (and then was injured), Monroe didn't improve once he AD was down.

Again, it's not that Monroe is a bad player -- far from it. It's that he isn't worth a huge salary, and there's little reason to take the chance that he'll get better and wind up worth those $$.

Of course, that might be exactly what happens! Anything "might" happen. Every decision brings risk with it. But over the next 4 years, there's really very little reason to think we'd get more productivity out of Monroe than Gortat. Opinions don't change that.

[payitforward]

Advanced stats have shown that Monroe is indeed better than Gortat by a decent amount when he plays the center position. His development has been slown considerably since the arrival of Drummond.

Don't forget about Al Jefferson as a guy who really showed out once he arrived to a different situation last year. I could see Monroe taking the same step for a different club.

Proper board etiquette dictates that phrases like "advanced stats have shown" should be accompanied by some citation to actual advanced stats, maybe with some links and/or analysis, to differentiate such claims from the likes of "everybody knows," "it stands to reason," and "I'll bet you dollars to donuts." Unless these are double-secret advanced stats, in which case you should not cite to them. Because they're secret.

I posted this like a week ago:

Monroe is better than Gortat. The reason its not so obvious over these last couple of years is because since the arrival of Drummond he’s been forced to play out of position. The worst thing you can do in todays NBA is play a C at PF. Basketball just isn’t played that way anymore. It’s about quick rotations and spacing the floor now. Check out the stats here:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13DET14.HTM#bypos
http://www.82games.com/1314/13WAS17.HTM#bypos

Monroes PER at PF: 18.3 (good)
Monroes PER at C: 20.6 (all-star)

to look at defense:

Monroes OPPONENT per when he plays PF: 21.2 (ughhh)
Monroes OPPONENT per when he plays C: 17.2 ( okay)

Lets look at Gortat

Gortats PER at C: 18.6 (good)
Gortats OPPONENT per when he plays C: 17 ( okay)

The stats and eye test confirm what we already know. Monroe is an all-star caliber C and a slightly worse player than Gortat at PF. Speaking specifically about the center position Gortat is a hair better defensively, and I think we all knew that. It’s also important to note that Gortat likely got the benefit of the “team” associated aspect of PER. You never want to go completely off of PER because of how much your team can impact it, but even despite this Monroes advanced stats at the center position beat out Gortats fairly significantly.

PER calculations may be a bit off, but the difference is sitll the same. And that's not even taking into account the fact that Monroes been playing with bum PG's his entire career.

Sigh...

1. These aren't "advanced statistics"
2. They don't show that Monroe at C is better than Gortat.

PER is unreliable: it overvalues shooting -- taking shots itself, at no matter what efficiency. Monroe shoots more than Gortat. So much for that difference.

[Ruzious]

I agree with Dark's analysis. And all things being equal, I'd rather have Monroe over Gortat even if it costs 2 to 3 million a year more. The problem is keeping Ariza. I think the team needs to, because taking a step back now is something they can't do because they've painted themselves into a PR corner - and I've given up on Webster being a useful rotation player. And of course, clearing the room to sign Monroe would likely mean we give up rights to both Gortat and Ariza.

He had a good start to the year and it appeared that injuries really took a toll on him after the new year but I think it's a bit rash to say that he can't/won't be a useful rotation player going forward. That's also not to say that I don't prefer an Ariza/Porter rotation at the three and would look to trade Webster if the opportunity arose (because I think Ariza is better and I want develop Porter), but again, Webster is relatively young and I think he's capable of a bounce back season after last.

Webster's had back and related problems throughout his career. At some point - after they come back every year - you stop bouncing back from back problems. I think the fact that it hurt him for most of last season is enough reason to assume he's not going to bounce back. At minimum, they can't depend on him returning to healthy form.

[Ruzious]

I agree with Dark's analysis. And all things being equal, I'd rather have Monroe over Gortat even if it costs 2 to 3 million a year more. The problem is keeping Ariza. I think the team needs to, because taking a step back now is something they can't do because they've painted themselves into a PR corner - and I've given up on Webster being a useful rotation player. And of course, clearing the room to sign Monroe would likely mean we give up rights to both Gortat and Ariza.

I left out the MLE factor. If they go the cap space (Monroe or whoever else), they also lose the ability to use the MLE this year. So, if we go after Monroe, we lose Gortat, Ariza AND the MLE.

[nate33]

I agree with Dark's analysis. And all things being equal, I'd rather have Monroe over Gortat even if it costs 2 to 3 million a year more. The problem is keeping Ariza. I think the team needs to, because taking a step back now is something they can't do because they've painted themselves into a PR corner - and I've given up on Webster being a useful rotation player. And of course, clearing the room to sign Monroe would likely mean we give up rights to both Gortat and Ariza.

I left out the MLE factor. If they go the cap space (Monroe or whoever else), they also lose the ability to use the MLE this year. So, if we go after Monroe, we lose Gortat, Ariza AND the MLE.

And Bird Rights on Booker too, though that is clearly a lesser consideration.

[gambitx777]

What about 3 way trade with denver and OKC,
WIZ GET: Perkins, Arthur, Fourier, plus one of OKC's picks.
Denever get's nene and the rights to Alex Abrines and Thomas.
OKC GETS: McGee

Denver get's a familiar vet who only has two years on his deal, Plus they have the front court to allow nene to play less minutes and Thomas fills a need for them. Abrines is a good 3 pt shooter and could add nice bench depth for them as well.

OKC upgrades a position with a very good talented young big, and chances are that OKC can rain in McGee and his bone headed-ness. that and they only have 2 years of him at the same rate as Perkins and McGee is no worse than Perkins, just more talented.

We can Buy out Perkins from more cap room, and send Author on his way if needed or keep him and his reasonable salary. We also address depth at the guard positions and get a first round pick to further address depth. The big thing for us is that we have the potential to clear 12 mill in cap room.

[nate33]

What about 3 way trade with denver and OKC,
WIZ GET: Perkins, Arthur, Fourier, plus one of OKC's picks.
Denever get's nene and the rights to Alex Abrines and Thomas.
OKC GETS: McGee

Denver get's a familiar vet who only has two years on his deal, Plus they have the front court to allow nene to play less minutes and Thomas fills a need for them. Abrines is a good 3 pt shooter and could add nice bench depth for them as well.

OKC upgrades a position with a very good talented young big, and chances are that OKC can rain in McGee and his bone headed-ness. that and they only have 2 years of him at the same rate as Perkins and McGee is no worse than Perkins, just more talented.

We can Buy out Perkins from more cap room, and send Author on his way if needed or keep him and his reasonable salary. We also address depth at the guard positions and get a first round pick to further address depth. The big thing for us is that we have the potential to clear 12 mill in cap room.

With all the youth OKC already has up front (Ibaka and Adams), I think they'd much prefer to add Nene than McGee. Cut Denver out.

[gambitx777]

Well the problem with cutting out Denver is that, they provides a lot of intangibles for the deal. we get a young 2 out of the deal and we get more cap relief with Arthur, or a decent back up big if we keep him. Plus, for OKC they keep there team intact, they don't have to give up any one else other than Perkins and they take less of a cap hit as well. Ibaka is more of a PF and if McGee works out there, he could be part of there long term plan, A McGee Ibaka and adams front court is a very nice thing to have. Plus denver could also give them one of there 2 second round picks to sweeten the deal for OKC. I just think it's a better deal with Denver in it. But I do understand what you are saying, it's a valid opinion and point, I just don't totally agree with you.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

[verbal8]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

You have to be willing to let the Lakers draft for you, but if they really are just trying to dump that package for nothing in return - setting up a 3 way S&T with Ariza or Gortat going out would work(they only need to make 6.5 million for the numbers to work).

The reason the Lakers have to make the pick is the S&T deal can't happen until July.

[nate33]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

It would be the ultimate tank move.

Basically, if we are to rigidly apply Ted's 10-Point Plan and conclude that Gortat and Ariza aren't core pieces that we should overpay, then we are pretty much resigning ourselves to a sub-.500 performance next year (assuming we also rule out signing Monroe). If we're not seriously competing for the playoffs, then it's better to suck even more and get a higher pick. So instead of using our cap room for short-term veterans to patch the holes left by Gortat's and Ariza's departure, we use the cap room to buy the #7 pick from LA. While we're at it, we should go ahead and trade Nene for Perkins, and Webster for whatever 2015 contract we can. Next year, we roll with the sucktastic roster of:

PG: Wall/Nash
SG: Beal/Miller
SF: Porter/Rice
PF: Randle/Gooden
C: Perkins/Seraphin?

We land another lottery pick in 2015 and hit the 2015 free agency market with about $35M in cap room to go with Wall, Beal, Porter, Randle and the 2015 lotto pick. Looks great on paper.

This is the stuff that RealGM junkies dream about, but rarely happens in the real world. Ted wouldn't dare pull off such a blatant tank move with a team that just made the 2nd round of the playoffs. Also, in the real world, big name free agents rarely look to join really bad teams. Having all that cap room isn't particularly helpful if no one wants to play here.

[Rafael122]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

Webster and Miller for Nash works.

Lakers can cut Miller, and they would have only Kobe and Martell's contract on the books at $28 million total. $35 million in cap room after renouncing everyone.

For us? Nash made it public if he's not with the Lakers he might retire, so hes leaving $9 million on the table. I don't know if the Wiz can use the stretch provision on him, but if they did, Ted would only have to pay him about $3.5 million to go away. Either way, let's say he's off the books and the Wizards draft Julius Randle. Randle's first year salary would be about $3 million. Between Nene, Wall, Beal, Porter and Randle, the Wiz would have $38.5 million in salary on the books and they would roughly be $25 million under the cap.

That opens up a ton of options, they can do a BOYD with a team like Cleveland who wants to get under the cap. Maybe they trade Varejao and a future 1st to us in exchange for just having the cap space. Maybe Houston would be open to trading Asik and a 1st for the cap space. With both those guys, they would be on an expiring contract so that gives the Wizards max cap room again in 2015. If they wanted, they could go after Bosh and offer him a max contract, and still have room to make other improvements on the roster. But if they made such a trade, your young core is Wall/Beal/Porter/Randle. That is extremely impressive. Plus cap room.

[pcbothwel]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

Not really, Even if we renounce Ariza and waive Miller we'd be about 2 mil short. If we renounce Gortat and Ariza then we can, but losing them both plus the MLE would be tough to swallow.

If only we had a 10M fully non-guaranteed contract to send to LA...
Im looking at you Haywood, get it done EG

[nate33]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

Webster and Miller for Nash works.

Lakers can cut Miller, and they would have only Kobe and Martell's contract on the books at $28 million total. $35 million in cap room after renouncing everyone.

If Miller is to be bought out, it has to happen before June 30th. He can't be traded at his $4.6M cap value and then be bought out for his $2M guaranteed value. Basically, if LA trades for Miller than cuts him, they'd still be on the hook for his full salary and associated cap hit.

[Rafael122]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

It would be the ultimate tank move.

Basically, if we are to rigidly apply Ted's 10-Point Plan and conclude that Gortat and Ariza aren't core pieces that we should overpay, then we are pretty much resigning ourselves to a sub-.500 performance next year (assuming we also rule out signing Monroe). If we're not seriously competing for the playoffs, then it's better to suck even more and get a higher pick. So instead of using our cap room for short-term veterans to patch the holes left by Gortat's and Ariza's departure, we use the cap room to buy the #7 pick from LA. While we're at it, we should go ahead and trade Nene for Perkins, and Webster for whatever 2015 contract we can. Next year, we roll with the sucktastic roster of:

PG: Wall/Nash
SG: Beal/Miller
SF: Porter/Rice
PF: Randle/Gooden
C: Perkins/Seraphin?

We land another lottery pick in 2015 and hit the 2015 free agency market with about $35M in cap room to go with Wall, Beal, Porter, Randle and the 2015 lotto pick. Looks great on paper.

This is the stuff that RealGM junkies dream about, but rarely happens in the real world. Ted wouldn't dare pull off such a blatant tank move with a team that just made the 2nd round of the playoffs. Also, in the real world, big name free agents rarely look to join really bad teams. Having all that cap room isn't particularly helpful if no one wants to play here.

Eh Nate, this is where you and I differ. I don't think the Wizards would make that move w/tanking in mind. I think it opens up the books, even if Nash stayed on and collected a paycheck, the Wiz still have enough cap room to make some trades that fills the roster out. I mentioned Varejao, Asik, etc. Those guys would come with a pick attached to it. Especially in Cleveland's case, they want to make a run at the top guys and clearing Varejao's $9 million salary would help them. How desperate would they be? Cleveland has 3 first round picks next year, Miami's, Memphis, and their own. I'd ask for their own and Memphis' pick.

[Rafael122]

I appeal to the Cap Gurus and Trade-Checking Titans... there's rumor that LA wants to move Nash with the #7 pick to clear up space to make a run at Lebron (& Melo).

Is there any way to do that that doesn't cripple the team long term? Nash makes 9.7 million next year IIRC. But it...
1.) Gets us back in the lottery with a chance to score somebody like Randle.
2.) Sends out biggest competition (only potentially) Westward and out of our conference.

Webster and Miller for Nash works.

Lakers can cut Miller, and they would have only Kobe and Martell's contract on the books at $28 million total. $35 million in cap room after renouncing everyone.

If Miller is to be bought out, it has to happen before June 30th. He can't be traded at his $4.6M cap value and then be bought out for his $2M guaranteed value. Basically, if LA trades for Miller than cuts him, they'd still be on the hook for his full salary and associated cap hit.

Ahhh....

[nate33]

Eh Nate, this is where you and I differ. I don't think the Wizards would make that move w/tanking in mind. I think it opens up the books, even if Nash stayed on and collected a paycheck, the Wiz still have enough cap room to make some trades that fills the roster out. I mentioned Varejao, Asik, etc. Those guys would come with a pick attached to it. Especially in Cleveland's case, they want to make a run at the top guys and clearing Varejao's $9 million salary would help them. How desperate would they be? Cleveland has 3 first round picks next year, Miami's, Memphis, and their own. I'd ask for their own and Memphis' pick.

Not really.

If the Wizards renounce Ariza and Gortat (and Booker, Seraphin and Singleton), and buy out Miller, they would have $18.8M in cap room. Acquire Nash and the pick, and that's going to take about $12.7M of that cap room, leaving just $6M. Factor in minimum salary holds to get the roster up to 11, and it's only $4M in cap room.

They might get a bit more room if they can trade Nene straight up for Perkins, but we're only talking $4M million more. And by then, it would be too late to use the cap room to buy picks.

[FAH1223]

Dump Nene on the Suns for pure cap room!!

[miller31time]

Dump Nene on the Suns for pure cap room!!

He's got more value than a salary dump. If Phoenix really wanted Nene, we could get their (our) first rounder out of it and probably one of their big-man role players too (Plumlee).

[FAH1223]

Dump Nene on the Suns for pure cap room!!

He's got more value than a salary dump. If Phoenix really wanted Nene, we could get their (our) first rounder out of it and probably one of their big-man role players too (Plumlee).

He's gonna get hurt at the World Cup playing for Brazil

I'd dump him and pry Len or Plumlee