2025 Draft Thread

[9 and 20]

Assuming Memphis gets through the play in and we keep that pick I think it is very unlikely we trade down with our first pick.

Agree with this. At some point, having too many young guys to develop all at once becomes too difficult. Plus, I'd like to take a swing on Edgecomb or Ace Bailey if we land at 3 or 4. We need a 1 or 1a type player, which either of those guys could be.

[The Consiglieri]

We are two upsets from losing that pick. Memphis needs to lose twice in the play-in round before they're eliminated.

And the second loss would be against the winner of the SAC-DAL (9-10) playin game and at home for MEM.
Which doesn't guarantee anything.

If we drop to 5th or 6th in the draft AND lose the Memphis pick I think my brain will explode.

Well, the drop to 5 is what, 47%+

The Memphis piece in terms of math is what, 15-25%.

I don't expect us to fall to 5 or even worse 6, but 1-4 vs 5, or 5 and 6 are nearly identical in odds, so I'm basically trying to get myself mentally ready to accept the horrid 5 slot.

The Memphis thing feels more like fate or not fate. If they crash out it will be because post trade deadline literally everything went wrong and they didn't even have the mental makeup to play up to their bear minimum level talent, period, I tend to doubt that will happen, especially if they play a team even more mentally broken like Dallas with it all on the line. No excuse whatsoever to lose to Dallas in a play in.

[closg00]

The Tankathon sim does not like me, 10 spins:
1.
2. 1 - Dylan
3. 3 - Ace, VJ
4. 1- VJ, Tre
5. 5 - VJ, Tre (very tempted to take Queen here)

I am getting excited about our 2nd pick, we should be able to get one of:

Thomas Sorber - Top target for me, we need a grown ass man badly in the front court
Danny Wolf - Scrappy and has a much better all-round game > Tristan
Rasheer Fleming - Another PF prospect
Yaxel Lendeborg - Bye Anthony
Walter Clayton Jr. - Could go earlier than where he is mocked. WC is winner, I like his game and I would be strongly tempted to take him.

[The Consiglieri]

Assuming Memphis gets through the play in and we keep that pick I think it is very unlikely we trade down with our first pick.

Definitely. The sense of that 6-20whatever tier being a generalized valuation of upside guys and specific skill guys, but not some colossal tier break anywhere between 6 and 20whatever tells me the only weird thing they might do with a potential Memphis pick is move up, if they are in love with a specific prospect, but I don't know why they'd be, there's a whole bunch of very interesting guys in that 10-30 zone that fit different kinds of desires.

I continue to eye that "no prospect traded for or acquired that was older than 21 in his draft year from these past couple of classes, if that were to hold, some of the guys that might not be taken:

No N. Clifford, no Lendebourg, no Clayton Jr, no Cam Jones, no Broome, no Kalkbrenner, no Lanier, no Uzan, Raynaud, Karraban, D. Williams, S. James etc, and it might make Queen a weird point since he was a 20 year old freshman, but all of that is entirely speculative, I just find it interesting that all these guys were 18, 19, or 20, with only a couple of 21 year olds (1 or 2), and zero 22+.

[The Consiglieri]

The Tankathon sim does not like me, 10 spins:
1.
2. 1 - Dylan
3. 3 - Ace, VJ
4. 1- VJ, Tre
5. 5 - VJ, Tre (very tempted to take Queen here)

I am getting excited about our 2nd pick, we should be able to get one of:

Thomas Sorber - Top target for me, we need a grown ass man badly in the front court
Danny Wolf - Scrappy and has a much better all-round game > Tristan
Rasheer Fleming - Another PF prospect
Yaxel Lendeborg - Bye Anthony
Walter Clayton Jr. - Could go earlier than where he is mocked. WC is winner, I like his game and I would be strongly tempted to take him.

Otoh, you perfectly replicated what the odds would say should happen in terms of 1-4 versus 5. I love how 3 went for you though.

[The Consiglieri]

Assuming Memphis gets through the play in and we keep that pick I think it is very unlikely we trade down with our first pick.

Agree with this. At some point, having too many young guys to develop all at once becomes too difficult. Plus, I'd like to take a swing on Edgecomb or Ace Bailey if we land at 3 or 4. We need a 1 or 1a type player, which either of those guys could be.

Yep, the current build:
'23: Bilal, Colby, Vuckevic
'24: Sarr, Bub, AJ, Kyshawn
'25: 2-3 potential picks

Not sure about '26-'28, but we got a ton of 2nds, I know that.

Otoh, I think part of the build is spreading out these picks, staggering them so we can handle the locker room, and too much youth effectively. One interesting thing to note:

W/regards to the '26 class, supposedly the Euro contingent sucks, so if we want to draft and stash to limit the locker room youth issue, this would be the year.

[payitforward]

...At some point, having too many young guys to develop all at once becomes too difficult.....

Do not think Will's FO agrees with this. We have 10 guys 23 or younger. They'll add as many as they think have potential. People were mocking OKC not that long ago for having/using too many draft picks. 67 wins with a game left.

...I'd like to take a swing on Edgecombe or Ace Bailey if we land at 3 or 4. We need a 1 or 1a type player, which either of those guys could be.

OTOH this makes good sense. A pitch you have to swing on & if you miss you miss.

[payitforward]

There is no such thing, in the abstract, as "too much youth." Tell me who you're putting in that roster spot, & I'll have an idea if it was a good decision or not.

You rebuild with young players. The more total the rebuild the younger they have to be.

How long ago were people saying OKC was collecting too many draft picks?

[closg00]

Interesting research, Ernie is not on the list
https://hoopshype.com/lists/research-which-executives-have-drafted-the-most-nba-stars/

[SUPERBALLMAN]

There is no such thing, in the abstract, as "too much youth." Tell me who you're putting in that roster spot, & I'll have an idea if it was a good decision or not.

You rebuild with young players. The more total the rebuild the younger they have to be.

How long ago were people saying OKC was collecting too many draft picks?

What theyre doing seems to make sense. Beyond the archetype of player they target: long, multi-positional, they also seem to do a good job of identifying players that want to work and want to get better and have a team oriented mentality. All these young guys, Bub, Kyshawn, Sarr, Bilal, Champagnie, Jones just seem to fit in, and appear to be void of the knuckelhead factor.

And supplementing the youth with key vets, keeping Gil and Holmes in house, bringing in Brogdon, Smart & Middleton just adds to the professionalism of this group and has created a conducive environment for these young guys to develop and gain confidence.

[doclinkin]

Each of us has our favorites but ultimately we stand to get a damn good player from this draft no matter where we fall in the top 6. I can watch enough footage to convince myself on anybody. Tre is a nice scorer, adds razzle dazzle. Queen gives muscle up front. Maluach is too big to fail. Fears is a prodigy. CMB is a fierce defender. Sorber is better than he's mocked. Somebody good is available.

I'm more concerned about Memphis trying to tank to keep their draft pick. I fully expect them to lose to the W's, then face the winner of the Kings/Mavs game. Dallas is wounded but if Davis is healthy and playing well they can beat anyone. The Kings are kind of an awkward mess, but the Grizz have been deliberately dropping games with questionable roster moves. Their 3rd string G Leaguers are decent enough to beat other team's back-ups, but their new coach has job security and nothing to prove. I'm sure he'd like extra talent. If they can lose, I bet they'll try, with line-ups and rotations. That team builds with the draft. They want the pick back. I think we miss out.

[The Consiglieri]

Interesting research, Ernie is not on the list
https://hoopshype.com/lists/research-which-executives-have-drafted-the-most-nba-stars/

I wish there was a way for one of these groups to actually tier out the value properly in drafts. I tend to think a GM that can get ALL NBA players outside the top 3 is the real genius. I don't know how big a deal it is that say, Pat Williams produced four all NBA players, if they were all "no ----" gimme's.

[closg00]

Each of us has our favorites but ultimately we stand to get a damn good player from this draft no matter where we fall in the top 6. I can watch enough footage to convince myself on anybody. Tre is a nice scorer, adds razzle dazzle. Queen gives muscle up front. Maluach is too big to fail. Fears is a prodigy. CMB is a fierce defender. Sorber is better than he's mocked. Somebody good is available.

I'm more concerned about Memphis trying to tank to keep their draft pick. I fully expect them to lose to the W's, then face the winner of the Kings/Mavs game. Dallas is wounded but if Davis is healthy and playing well they can beat anyone. The Kings are kind of an awkward mess, but the Grizz have been deliberately dropping games with questionable roster moves. Their 3rd string G Leaguers are decent enough to beat other team's back-ups, but their new coach has job security and nothing to prove. I'm sure he'd like extra talent. If they can lose, I bet they'll try, with line-ups and rotations. That team builds with the draft. They want the pick back. I think we miss out.

I think we are in denial about this , they want that pick, I just hope they accidentally win like we did yesterday.

[pcbothwel]

There is no such thing, in the abstract, as "too much youth." Tell me who you're putting in that roster spot, & I'll have an idea if it was a good decision or not.

You rebuild with young players. The more total the rebuild the younger they have to be.

How long ago were people saying OKC was collecting too many draft picks?

I wouldn’t say youth, in and of itself, is the problem. But you definitely need very hard-working, immature young guys if you’re going to have a locker room full of them. My concern is more around finances. If you have seven rookies all due for new contracts in the same two year period, it makes things a bit complicated. I think having a constant flow of first round picks (ie. 2 1st/year) is preferable to what we did this last year with four. That said, we are just kicking off the rebuild so it’s understandable.

[nate33]

I'm more concerned about Memphis trying to tank to keep their draft pick. I fully expect them to lose to the W's, then face the winner of the Kings/Mavs game. Dallas is wounded but if Davis is healthy and playing well they can beat anyone. The Kings are kind of an awkward mess, but the Grizz have been deliberately dropping games with questionable roster moves. Their 3rd string G Leaguers are decent enough to beat other team's back-ups, but their new coach has job security and nothing to prove. I'm sure he'd like extra talent. If they can lose, I bet they'll try, with line-ups and rotations. That team builds with the draft. They want the pick back. I think we miss out.

I was thinking about the same thing last night. I figure the players do in fact want to play in the playoffs, particularly if they don't have to face OKC. So they'll try hard in the first play-in game where, if they beat Golden State, they'll get the 7th seed and face an inexperienced Houston matchup. Unfortunately, Golden State is better than them so Memphis will probably lose that first play-in. In the second play-in, they might be thinking they don't want to be embarrassed by OKC in a 4-0 sweep and it would be better to just lose the game and thereby keep their pick.

All that said, I'm thinking like a fan about this, not like a player. I don't know if veteran players really think much about draft position. They have to assume that, by the time any pick is developed enough to be a useful player, that veteran may have already moved on to a different team. Memphis might lose because they're a generally demoralized team, but I doubt they will lose strategically to gain a pick.

[dobrojim]

Each of us has our favorites but ultimately we stand to get a damn good player from this draft no matter where we fall in the top 6. I can watch enough footage to convince myself on anybody. Tre is a nice scorer, adds razzle dazzle. Queen gives muscle up front. Maluach is too big to fail. Fears is a prodigy. CMB is a fierce defender. Sorber is better than he's mocked. Somebody good is available.

I'm more concerned about Memphis trying to tank to keep their draft pick. I fully expect them to lose to the W's, then face the winner of the Kings/Mavs game. Dallas is wounded but if Davis is healthy and playing well they can beat anyone. The Kings are kind of an awkward mess, but the Grizz have been deliberately dropping games with questionable roster moves. Their 3rd string G Leaguers are decent enough to beat other team's back-ups, but their new coach has job security and nothing to prove. I'm sure he'd like extra talent. If they can lose, I bet they'll try, with line-ups and rotations. That team builds with the draft. They want the pick back. I think we miss out.

I think we are in denial about this , they want that pick, I just hope they accidentally win like we did yesterday.

Someone recently commented that players don't
tank. I think that's generally true. That said, in one game,
anything is possible. Underdogs occasionally have their
day.

[Rafael122]

We were 1 ping pong away from Wemby, we were 1 ping pong away from the first pick in the '24 draft (though it looks like we got our guy regardless) so we're due lol.

[payitforward]

I wouldn’t say youth, in and of itself, is the problem.... My concern is more around finances. If you have seven rookies all due for new contracts in the same two year period, it makes things a bit complicated....

No way! If you have 7 rookies who deserve new contracts one year, then you have done one hell of a job of drafting! & you have valuable players to trade!

I think having a constant flow of first round picks (ie. 2 1st/year) is preferable to what we did this last year with four....

I disagree entirely. & once again... look at OKC's process.

Now, if you're doing a good job you can't keep giving significant minutes to 4 new guys a year. OTOH, there is no inherent limit to how many good young players you should try to add through the draft or undrafted. None.

Why? Because, if you're doing a good job, a high % of your draft picks give you assets that are worth something. You use them in player trades, to move up in future drafts, to stock up your future trade capital.... Or they let you trade guys you've drafted a few years ago, who now have extra value.

...That said, we are just kicking off the rebuild so it’s understandable.

The draft is not about adding the right "piece." It's about maximizing the value of your player-investment portfolio. Period.
Of course that may bring you the particular position guys you need. But it really doesn't matter.

Suppose OKC had had the #1 pick in '23 --do you think they would have left Wembenyana on the board b/c they already had Chet Holmgren?

It is impossible to draft too many players -- not if they're good!

In the draft, you aren't looking for "the right guys," i.e. the ones you need at the positions where you need them. You are just looking for the most player value. Period.

[payitforward]

...Memphis might lose because they're a generally demoralized team, but I doubt they will lose strategically to gain a pick.

My view as well....

[Dat2U]

Personally I want the #2 pick again. I like Coop and would take him #1 but I think Dylan is more skilled as a ballhandler and shot creator.