Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[DCZards]

So, now it starts to look like what we got back for Deni was

Carrington
Brogdon
R1 pick a few years hence
2 R2 picks a few years hence
Tre Johnson
Our '26 R1 pick (say one of Peterson, Dybantsa or Boozer)

Doesn't look quite so odd now, does it?

Did the Zards use those 2 future R2 picks to acquire Cam Whitmore? Maybe.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Then too, if Alex had played 900 minutes instead of 1800, & the extra 900 had gone to Valanciunas & Holmes, we would likely have won another 8 or more games easily.

In short, keep Deni & play our strongest line-ups consistently (instead of feeding minutes to the young) & we'd likely have won close to 35 games -- as Portland did.

And therefore landed the 11th pick in the lotto as Portland did. And thus lost our top 10 protected pick. Because of course we would.

With the 11th pick, Thomas Sorber might have been an even better addition thanTre Johnson.

They should have kept Deni.

[TGW]

They should have kept Deni 100%. He is better than whatever they got back for him by alot.

[doclinkin]

Then too, if Alex had played 900 minutes instead of 1800, & the extra 900 had gone to Valanciunas & Holmes, we would likely have won another 8 or more games easily.

In short, keep Deni & play our strongest line-ups consistently (instead of feeding minutes to the young) & we'd likely have won close to 35 games -- as Portland did.

And therefore landed the 11th pick in the lotto as Portland did. And thus lost our top 10 protected pick. Because of course we would.

With the 11th pick, Thomas Sorber might have been an even better addition thanTre Johnson.

They should have kept Deni.

You missed the point. If we got #11 then we’d ship that pick to New York. No Tre Johnson. No Thomas Sorber. No nobody.

Just the ghost of Russell Westbrook on a one year rental because Ted was tired of John Wall and his drinking while rehabbing.

[nate33]

Deni pushed Portland, almost single-handedly, from 21 wins to 35 wins. I'd say he was responsible for 9 of those extra wins. In the same minutes, w/ us he would have had the same effect on us.

Deni did not do this single-handedly. Portland had a lot of very young people who improved.

Tourmani Camara went from a 24 mpg bench player to a DPOY the candidate (9th place in votes).
Simons went from 48 games played to 70 games played with basically the same production.
Sharpe went from 32 games played averaging 17pts/36 on a TS% of .524 to 72 games played averaging 21pts/36 on a TS% of .551.
Scoot Henderson went from the worst player in the entire league to merely a bad player.

And finally, Portland was actually trying to win games instead of intentionally tanking.

Deni was not worth 9 extra wins. He had an on/off differential of +3.4, which is nice but not team-changing. He played about half the total minutes, which means he contributed maybe +1.7 to the teams point differential. If he was replacing an average player, the pythagorean win percentage calculator would say that's worth 4 games. Let's assume he was replacing a modestly below-average player, so that would be 5 or 6 games.

[nate33]

So, now it starts to look like what we got back for Deni was

Carrington
Brogdon
R1 pick a few years hence
2 R2 picks a few years hence
Tre Johnson
Our '26 R1 pick (say one of Peterson, Dybantsa or Boozer)

Doesn't look quite so odd now, does it?

Deni would not have caused us to miss BOTH draft picks in 2025 and 2026. We only owed one protected pick to NY.

As I've said before, I think it's a real stretch to think that Deni would have delivered 9 additional wins. And Doc's notion that we would have finished with 36 wins (an 18-game improvement) is beyond the pale. If Deni was that good, that he is a superstar and it was even crazier to trade him.

The bottom line is that there is no way we would have given our 2025 pick to NY. Whether that would have been in New Orleans' draft slot (#7), Philly's draft slot (#3), or Brooklyn's draft slot (#8) is the only real question. An extra 3-5 wins would have been the New Orleans pick. An extra 6-8 wins would have been the Philly pick. An extra 9-12 wins would have been the Brooklyn pick.

[payitforward]

Hard to get people to remember all the elements of this problem.

We HAD TO GET WORSE in order to rebuild.

Let's say we hadn't traded Chris Paul, a great player even in '23-4, for Jordan Poole: we were likely to have been about 10 wins better in '23-24. Meaning a mid-round 1 pick in '24 -- which would have gone to NY.

Then we keep Deni, & he blows up as he did in Portland. We have 30+ wins & get to pick Cedric Coward.

So... no Alex Sarr & no Bub Carrington & no Tre Johnson. Instead we have Coward, & we still have Deni.

I.e. no "deconstruction" phase -- instead we're doing a version of the infamous "mid-rebuild" but around Deni rather than Beal.
Oh, & those of you who predicted the Deni "blow up," please raise your hand....

Uh huh... no hands (tho, don't get me wrong, we were all "hoping he would continue to improve").

[doclinkin]

As I've said before, I think it's a real stretch to think that Deni would have delivered 9 additional wins. And Doc's notion that we would have finished with 36 wins (an 18-game improvement) is beyond the pale.

My notion? You were playing the ‘if’ game with PIF. I only said if we got the 11th pick we’d have no pick. Add Deni and subtract Kuz absolutely would have earned us more wins. Kuz was not a modestly bad player. He was a remarkably bad player.

That said right Deni was surrounded by young people who got better. Basically what we are hoping for this year. So if we didn’t miss the lotto last year then this year would surely be in jeopardy.

But that’s the thing with playing the ‘if’ game. Nice to say we would have gotten the bounce Philly got or whomever. But you know the team you are rooting for. We have gotten the lucky bounce a few times. But never in a true superstar year. We are also the team that missed Wemby by one combination when we had 60% of the combos that could have won him left in the hopper. Or whatever the story is. The team that missed on 2 potential franchise players this year, slipped out of the top odds by one buzzer beating shot on the last play of the game.

Don’t give the odds a chance to disappoint. We have a long history to battle with.

No rebuilding team can afford to give away a pick. A lotto pick. This year and next year have been forecast for years as being deep in franchise level crazy of course that teams track this stuff that far ahead, but kids play U16 ball. The AAU circuit etc.

Dawkins and all have done everything they reasonably can to game the mathematics. They are 100% committed to building through the draft. At least until we have a franchise player and are no longer under the threat of decisions made by the past FO team.

Is Deni our franchise player? You say he’s worth +3 points. Doesn’t sound franchisey. He was worth 5 assets and better lottery position. Potentially avoiding the loss of a pick. That’s a gamble. The team bet that with those six assets we could land at least one player equal to or better than Deni.

So far Deni is winning that bet. Brogdon was worth nothing for us. We did keep our pick. So we are waiting to see if Bub + Tre are equal to whatever Deni produces.

Hopefully we will get a chance to argue that Bub + Tre/top 8 pick (either/or) are better than Deni. We still have other assets coming due one by one. Me I say it’s fair to judge what this team does in the years after we no longer owe a pick. Until then I’m crossing all my fingers and toes that we keep our lottery pick. Hopefully at that point the Deni conversation becomes a thing of the past.

I like the kid and wish him well. But I don’t hate that they saw he was our only tradable asset, that he would have helped us win in the short term, in the time period when we needed to lose, and that five assets plus better lotto odds was a deal worth doing. Shrug. Still seems a fair bet.

[nate33]

Oh, & those of you who predicted the Deni "blow up," please raise your hand.

I absolutely predicted the Deni blow up. It was easily predictable because it was the same production he posted in his final 30 games in Washington plus an incremental improvement in 3-point shooting.

[badinage]

[Hand held high]

It was very clear to all close watchers of the team that this was going to prove to be a colossally stupid trade.

Also? We cannot sneak Tre Johnson into a discussion of Deni Avdija for Bub, a late-round draft pick and the corpse of Malcolm Brogdon.

And you *can* get worse AND keep a rising player in Deni Avdija, and that’s by rolling out lineups — for long stretches of the game, if need be (though I don’t think it would have gotten to that with the roster this team had) — of Avdija and G-leaguers.

And finally … it’s a rebuild, yes, but that’s just a word. The idea is to form a core of as many good young, developing players as you can. That’s it. We had a piece, and we shipped him out. It was an inarguable blunder, and a big one, and possibly a reverberant one … but we move on. And hope that some of the six draftees will make a claim — and soon — to being a part of that core. But this trade did not advance us.

[dckingsfan]

Oh, & those of you who predicted the Deni "blow up," please raise your hand.

I absolutely predicted the Deni blow up. It was easily predictable because it was the same production he posted in his final 30 games in Washington plus an incremental improvement in 3-point shooting.

Same here... he is a really good basketball player now. But, maybe this is good for both teams. I guess that isn't the case if Deni takes another step forward this season.

Code: Select all

Season   Age   MP      TS%      3P%   AST%   TOV%   USG%   ORtg
2020-21   20   1257   0.515   0.315    6.3    9.0   12.0   103
2021-22   21   1984   0.536   0.317   11.8   12.0   16.3   106
2022-23   22   2020   0.535   0.297   13.9   15.9   16.7   106
2023-24   23   2257   0.597   0.374   17.8   14.8   20.2   112

This said to me that he was increasing usage but it wasn't affecting his TS% - a very good trend.

Code: Select all

DRB%   STL%   BLK%   DRtg
20.2   1.2    1.0    113
20.5   1.5    1.9    113
21.9   1.6    1.2    114
22.1   1.2    1.3    119

He was maintaining his defensive rebounding prowess. A good fit in any lineup.

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BPM    VORP
-3.1   -0.4
-1.7    0.1
-2.3   -0.1
-0.9    0.6

And those are pretty good jump numbers.

I would really have loved to watch Deni with Sarr.

[dckingsfan]

We HAD TO GET WORSE in order to rebuild.

This is a multi-variable n-game theory statement, right. And you would agree that there would be levels of this, right?

I think how Dallas did it works as well. Lower probability but a higher ceiling. Or San Antonio as well.

I think this new draft model rewards those teams that are good but not good enough to get in the playoffs more so than the previous draft model.

So, you are right - but there are many flavors to consider.

Either way, I am good with the direction of the FO thus far, more wins that losses in my book. But it is n-game theory, so there are other teams to take into consideration.

[Kanyewest]

And therefore landed the 11th pick in the lotto as Portland did. And thus lost our top 10 protected pick. Because of course we would.

With the 11th pick, Thomas Sorber might have been an even better addition thanTre Johnson.

They should have kept Deni.

You missed the point. If we got #11 then we’d ship that pick to New York. No Tre Johnson. No Thomas Sorber. No nobody.

Just the ghost of Russell Westbrook on a one year rental because Ted was tired of John Wall and his drinking while rehabbing.

The Westbrook return out was good from LA - KCP, Kuzma, Harrell, and a first rounder - those assets were mismanaged - while we are still waiting and seeing on the others

- Trading KCP
- Failing to trade Kuzma when they did (although the swap from the Bucks could be juicy along with AJ Johnson)
- The first rounder was traded down to take Aaron Holiday and Isiah Todd
- Harrell played like a MVP candidate for the first 20 games, then rubbed everyone the wrong way.

[nate33]

With the 11th pick, Thomas Sorber might have been an even better addition thanTre Johnson.

They should have kept Deni.

You missed the point. If we got #11 then we’d ship that pick to New York. No Tre Johnson. No Thomas Sorber. No nobody.

Just the ghost of Russell Westbrook on a one year rental because Ted was tired of John Wall and his drinking while rehabbing.

The Westbrook return out was good from LA - KCP, Kuzma, Harrell, and a first rounder - those assets were mismanaged - while we are still waiting and seeing on the others

- Trading KCP
- Failing to trade Kuzma when they did (although the swap from the Bucks could be juicy along with AJ Johnson)
- The first rounder was traded down to take Aaron Holiday and Isiah Todd
- Harrell played like a MVP candidate for the first 20 games, then rubbed everyone the wrong way.

I didn't mind the KCP deal. At the time, we were overloaded at wing and had no PG's, so it seemed reasonable. KCP didn't have too much value since there wasn't much time left before he was going to be a free agent. Monte Morris turned out to be rather underwhelming, but I didn't hate the move when it was made so I'm trying not to second-guess it in hindsight.

I was upset when we didn't trade Kuzma the prior year when his value was pretty high, but it turned out that even by waiting, we got roughly as much value as I assumed we would get in the first place (a late FRP and a small chance at a useful pick swap). So in the end, I don't really count this as squandering.

I suppose we could have tried to sell on Harrell while his value was highest, but I don't really think he was worth much. Everyone knew Harrell is a regular-season second-unit stat-stuffer who has limited utility in the playoffs because he doesn't protect the rim. I don't think his 20-game stint changed the calculus on that much.

The way we blew the first rounder on Holiday and Todd was definitely a mistake.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Hard to get people to remember all the elements of this problem.

We HAD TO GET WORSE in order to rebuild.

Let's say we hadn't traded Chris Paul, a great player even in '23-4, for Jordan Poole: we were likely to have been about 10 wins better in '23-24. Meaning a mid-round 1 pick in '24 -- which would have gone to NY.

Then we keep Deni, & he blows up as he did in Portland. We have 30+ wins & get to pick Cedric Coward.

So... no Alex Sarr & no Bub Carrington & no Tre Johnson. Instead we have Coward, & we still have Deni.

I.e. no "deconstruction" phase -- instead we're doing a version of the infamous "mid-rebuild" but around Deni rather than Beal.
Oh, & those of you who predicted the Deni "blow up," please raise your hand....

Uh huh... no hands (tho, don't get me wrong, we were all "hoping he would continue to improve").

You keep trotting out this argument that no one predicted Deni breaking out, and people keep rebuffing you, and you just keep saying it because it's critical to your argument on the assessments made by Dawkins & Co made when they traded him. Your reasoning keeps saying that it couldn't have possibly been a massive blunder by letting a great young talent slip through your hands for low upside return. But there were plenty of folks here (nate used to say I was hijacking the game threads talking about Deni for goodness sakes because he was far and away the only thing worth talking about until maybe Coulibaly) on here talking about on a daily basis the potential they saw in Deni, of course no one can ever say for sure, but complete misnomer you keep positing now that the trade looks so lopsided.

You've literally gone from first that it was a haul we got for him so we had to do it and that we sold high, to Brogdon was great for leadership even if we didn't bring him back, to now we had to do it because Deni was too good and would have ruined the rebuild.

You don't even have to read every page of this thread, read maybe every 4th or 5th page, and it will be a truly Willy Wonka like experience looking at the copium we've seen with the ever evolving narrative to why this was a good trade or how it was needed. The honorable thing would be just to take the giant L, just like the trade was, is, and always will be. Enough with the gymnastics, you're boy Dawkins got master stroked trying to get too cute and being petty that the best young talent on the team if Deni was still here today would be a guys Dawkins didn't draft by a country mile. Petty petty petty, and terrible player evaluation all in one.

[doclinkin]

Oh, & those of you who predicted the Deni "blow up," please raise your hand.

I absolutely predicted the Deni blow up. It was easily predictable because it was the same production he posted in his final 30 games in Washington plus an incremental improvement in 3-point shooting.

I support the trade after the fact AND predicted Deni only needed consistent minutes to continue his rise. The leap he made under the Dawkins regime seemed sustainable. And he’d shown flashes in Euro play of being able to be a lead performer when he was no longer looking over his shoulder.

[doclinkin]

[Hand held high]

It was very clear to all close watchers of the team that this was going to prove to be a colossally stupid trade.

Also? We cannot sneak Tre Johnson into a discussion of Deni Avdija

How not?

We ended up with the worst possible pick for our draft record. If you add the wins of swapping Deni minutes for Kuz minutes and assume we got the worst pick, there’s a chance we lost the pick entirely (outside top 10) but a likelihood no matter what that Tre was gone by our pick.

You can hate the trade and still understand a key component of it lay in maximizing our best chance to get a high pick. Failing to respect that is being deliberately obtuse. Yes you can massage losses with better players. But it makes it harder. They have been playing the math the other way. Betting heavy on high draft picks.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And therefore landed the 11th pick in the lotto as Portland did. And thus lost our top 10 protected pick. Because of course we would.

With the 11th pick, Thomas Sorber might have been an even better addition thanTre Johnson.

They should have kept Deni.

You missed the point. If we got #11 then we’d ship that pick to New York. No Tre Johnson. No Thomas Sorber. No nobody.

Just the ghost of Russell Westbrook on a one year rental because Ted was tired of John Wall and his drinking while rehabbing.

I definitely missed the point.

[dckingsfan]

Oh, & those of you who predicted the Deni "blow up," please raise your hand.

I absolutely predicted the Deni blow up. It was easily predictable because it was the same production he posted in his final 30 games in Washington plus an incremental improvement in 3-point shooting.

I support the trade after the fact AND predicted Deni only needed consistent minutes to continue his rise. The leap he made under the Dawkins regime seemed sustainable. And he’d shown flashes in Euro play of being able to be a lead performer when he was no longer looking over his shoulder.

And you wanted Halliburton over Deni, so there is that...

I didn't like the trade and still don't. But I understand the calculus of what they were trying to do and respect that.

[doclinkin]

I absolutely predicted the Deni blow up. It was easily predictable because it was the same production he posted in his final 30 games in Washington plus an incremental improvement in 3-point shooting.

I support the trade after the fact AND predicted Deni only needed consistent minutes to continue his rise. The leap he made under the Dawkins regime seemed sustainable. And he’d shown flashes in Euro play of being able to be a lead performer when he was no longer looking over his shoulder.

And you wanted Halliburton over Deni, so there is that...

I didn't like the trade and still don't. But I understand the calculus of what they were trying to do and respect that.

Speaking against myself I also was unsure if Euros known for defense would translate as well in the small ball no hand check NBA. Then they changed the rules emphasis and Deni proved stellar.