Official Trade Thread - Part XLII

[keynote]

Exactly this^ Nothing changes w/o dumping Dinwiddie first, so I hope that is part of the equation. This entire situation smells like we're about to be Grunfelded.

I don't mind waiting until the offseason to solve the PG dilemma. We'll get a better pick this year if we wait.

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...but the attempted moves are all about re-building around Brad before the Summer... although Brad may possibly be placated by any kind of "activity" that will justify him hanging around as a Super Max player, I believe that is what he really wants.

Yeah, I think Shep can "sell" Beal on Sabonis, Kuzma + a short list of PG targets. That, and a very large bag.

If we're truly committed to going all in, Shep should take Beal's temp on writing this season off in order to get a better PG in the off-season (with the higher pick as bait). That's still a win-now strategy, even if it isn't win-right-now.


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[FAH1223]

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Maybe Indy would take Todd in place of a 1st round pick?

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

My gut is churning that we are going to trade Deni for a guy that gets us to tenured mediocrity.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

So Harrell is reportedly in the deal. Sabonis is a PF, so it would make sense one of more of our current group of PF will also be included to avoid a logjam out of Kuzma, Hachimura, Bertans, Gil, Todd.

I doubt they want Bertans, so it's probably Kuzma and/or Rui. Would they also be interested in Dinwiddie or KCP?

[jangles86]

Why would Indy want Harrell!?

I don’t see how Sabonis changes this teams current stink.

Dinwiddie is nowhere near the player we needed. Kuzma, Rui and Deni are all 3/4.

I’m okay in giving up on Bryant now.


Can we manage to scam both Sabonis and Turner?

Two firsts Harrell, Rui and Bryant

[80sballboy]

So probably Bryant & Harrell & 2 1sts for Sabonis? I don't think OKC would need a ton of incentive to get an unprotected pick from us. They'd probably want another 2nd tho.

It's not gonna work unless they address the PG situation too.

Agree, but they will have to find a FA and draft one. Keeping all three first-round picks along with Kuz would be a bit surprising, but if you can find a point guard who can co-exist with Beal (preferably much more athletic than Din), they might have something. Of course, getting past Philly with Embiid will be very difficult. I wish Sabonis was a bit better than 32% from 3pt, though I wish Beal was a lot better than 30%.

[nate33]

We're not getting Sabonis without giving up Avdija.

[keynote]

We're not getting Sabonis without giving up Avdija.

If we use the Vucevic deal as comp (Porter's expiring, Wendell Carter, and 2 FRP for Vuc + Aminu): if Deni is the Wendell Carter-esque youngster, we should get another player back in return.

[nate33]

I agree with Nate that Beal-Simmons is the best core of a deal for us. But if that doesn't happen, my lean is that a Boston picks/players package is the best plan B. I am assuming Boston won't give us Brown in this scenario, which clearly would be better.

The core of the trade would be Beal for Smart, Richardson, Nesmith, and picks/swaps. (Note that Boston has all of its future firsts.) Leaving Boston with its core gives it a strong incentive to produce enough picks/swaps to get us close to the Jrue Holiday package. They also are likely to be the most confident team that Beal will resign. I think we would need two unprotected firsts (2022 and 2024) and at least one swap (I'd push it out as far as possible - say, 2027). I'd happily push for a second sooner swap, too.

Then I would trade Smart to Minnesota for Beverly and a 2022 first round pick. I'm OK with top 10 protection, or full lottery protection plus getting our 2022 second round pick back. I would also trade Richardson to the highest bidder - hopefully an expiring plus a late first, but I'd take a good second.

The haul would be:
2 unprotected BOS firsts
1 BOS swap
1 protected MIN first
Possible WAS second
What we get for Richardson
Nesmith

That compares OK with the Jrue package of 3 MIL firsts, two unlikely swaps, Eric Bledsoe, and George Hill.

Two possible variations on the trade. First, we could also push them to take Bertans into their trade exception. My guess is that would cost us one of the firsts. Second, we could push for a Gafford/Williams swap. Their numbers are similar per 36, but Timelord does it in 29 mins/game while Gaff is only good for 20. Also, Williams' efficiency numbers are better. I'm not sure what that would cost us.

If we add the Bertans part but not Gafford/Williams, our core salary for next year would be about $63 million (Dinwiddie, KCP, Kuzma, Rui, Deni, Kispert, Gafford, and Todd). We could drop another $9 million by cutting KCP before his guarantee kicks in - that puts us at $54 million plus picks plus roster charges). Williams, FWIW, adds back about $9 million.

None of this considers trading Trez, KCP, or Bryant, who don't get much but something.

Of course, we won't do anything like this, and will instead trade the future to rent Sabonis and the shoot for the 8th spot.

A respected franchise like Boston with competent people in the front office is going to remain a winning team for a long time if they have a core of Tatum, Brown and Beal. All those picks we get from Boston will be in the mid 20's and those pick swaps will never happen.

You just traded Beal for Nesmith and two future picks in the 20's

[doclinkin]

What about a go big for Fox?

I keep seeing him mentioned as a player the Kings are trying to move. I think you take him out of Sacramento and he's a star. He's just entering his prime, and he's locked up for several years. A Beal/Fox backcourt would give this team a bona fide identity and foundation.

Something like Harrell, Rui, Deni, Kispert?

Step away from the keyboard, dude.

Fox is a below average starting PG on a $30M a year deal. He isn't remotely close to being worth our last 3 lotto picks plus a good vet. A realistic Fox deal would look more like Dinwiddie + Rui + Bryant.

The only thing positive about Fox is that he still draws fouls despite the rules change, but a guard who shoots 28% from 3, and racks only 5 assists a game is not going to make Beal a better player.

[Gig18]

I'm skeptical a deal for Sabonis gets done. When was the last time anyone correctly predicted what Tommy was going to do? I like Sabonis, have for a few years. Not sure we have what they would want. I mean the dude's still just 25.

[thinker07]

Everything I'm writing here is based on the notion of the Wiz keeping Beal and trying to trading for Sabonis.

Obviously the Wiz have multiple problems. It seems like Dinwiddie kind of HAS to be moved and frankly it seems like Bertans HAS to be moved ASAP too. One thing that would work would be to be send Bertans to OKC in return for removing the protections on the 2023 pick. That seems like a no brainer for OKC since they are way below the salary floor. Maybe the Wiz get something back as well. That allows the Wiz to trade a first in 2025 as opposed to 2027. Maybe the Clippers would flip newly acquired Robert Covington + a little something for Dinwiddie. Their salaries almost match. Maybe New Orleans would take Dinwiddie for Devonte Graham + a little something.

As Dat has pointed out the Wiz have to end up with a PG. I'm not saying what I want, just what things the Wiz have to consider to get out of the HORRIBLE spot they are in right now.

So if the process has several parts -

1 Bertans to OKC for removing protections on the 23 pick

2 Dinwiddie to somewhere - To get off his contract and possibly add some kind of PG (for the sake of argument let's say Graham)

3 Bryant, Harrell and 2 FRPs (reported as the Wiz offer) for Sabonis

4 Maybe some other trade as well sending out one of Neto, Holliday, KCP, for 2nd round pick(s) or something

Then the Wiz are left with

(PG?) Neto OR Holliday,
Beal, KCB, Kispert
KCP, Avdija, Kispert
Kuz, Rui, Todd
Sabonis, Gafford, Gill

Something like that, and it turns out Beal's wrist is a LOT worse than first reported. Then super tank playing the young players and end up with a 2022 pick in the 6/7/8 range.

It not my first choice but is something better than the mess we're seeing these days. I can't see Indiana accepting that for Sabonis but it is the reported offer to work from.

Having a trio of Beal, Kuz, and Sabonis with KCP and then Rui, Avdija, Kispert, and Todd isn't the worst if they can find a decent PG.

I think this is the kind of set up the Wiz want to get to, even is most people here would prefer a bunch of different scenarios.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Delusional moves to try and get Sobonis. This team under Ted is utterly clueless. Watch us give up Kispert, Rui, and Deni (only 3 players worth watching on the team) for the right to max Sabonis in two years (along with a super max of Beal). I hate Ted.

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Damn stupid offer.

[nate33]

I'm really uncomfortable removing the protections off of the pick we owe OKC in any Sabonis deal. That deal could blow up in our face if Beal departs in free agency and we end up sucking next year and that 2023 pick is unprotected

The most I'd trade for Sabonis is Hachimura, Harrell, our "first available" pick (which could be the 2025, 26 or 27, depending on when the pick to OKC conveys) and a pick swap.

That's probably not enough to get it done, which is fine by me. I really think if we meet Indy's demand, it will end up being a disaster for us.

[nate33]

Bertans to OKC for removing protections on the 23 pick

This would be a dream scenario, but it seems highly unlikely to me.

I don't see OKC spending $38M to remove protections on a pick. Not when it means we will be able to land Sabonis while keeping our core intact, thereby ensuring that the pick will probably be outside of the lotto anyhow.

[DCZards]

Yeah, I think Shep can "sell" Beal on Sabonis, Kuzma + a short list of PG targets. That, and a very large bag.

If we're truly committed to going all in, Shep should take Beal's temp on writing this season off in order to get a better PG in the off-season (with the higher pick as bait). That's still a win-now strategy, even if it isn't win-right-now.

I can see it playing out this way if the Zards do trade for Sabonis and don’t also address the PG situation.

With Sabonis on the roster, Beal could probably be sold on letting this season play out and then adding a quality PG in the off-season.

I’d sure hate to lose Deni tho.

[FAH1223]

I'm really uncomfortable removing the protections off of the pick we owe OKC in any Sabonis deal. That deal could blow up in our face if Beal departs in free agency and we end up sucking next year and that 2023 pick is unprotected

The most I'd trade for Sabonis is Hachimura, Harrell, our "first available" pick (which could be the 2025, 26 or 27, depending on when the pick to OKC conveys) and a pick swap.

That's probably not enough to get it done, which is fine by me. I really think if we meet Indy's demand, it will end up being a disaster for us.

I think Indiana isn't going to take whatever Tommy is offering.

We'll see him pivot to something else. What that is, no idea.

[thinker07]

Bertans to OKC for removing protections on the 23 pick

This would be a dream scenario, but it seems highly unlikely to me.

I don't see OKC spending $38M to remove protections on a pick. Not when it means we will be able to land Sabonis while keeping our core intact, thereby ensuring that the pick will probably be outside of the lotto anyhow.

I think OKC is $20 mil UNDER the salary floor this year so the move costs them literally nothing, at least this year. It seems to me like it's a decent gamble for them to get a fully unprotected pick in the super loaded 23 draft for cash that they have no use for anyway right now. Is some other team going to give them something better for an unprotected pick next year? We are Wizards fans so we KNOW there is a decent chance of things blowing up next year.

[FAH1223]

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