Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[Kanyewest]

Cade with a very very good game. 43 points 7 assists 5 rebounds 3 steals and a block on 16-24 shooting from the field, 3-5 from the 3 and 8-9 from the FT Line in 44 minutes. Pistons losing streak continues.

[NatP4]

Cade with a very very good game. 43 points 7 assists 5 rebounds 3 steals and a block on 16-24 shooting from the field, 3-5 from the 3 and 8-9 from the FT Line in 44 minutes. Pistons losing streak continues.

Goodbye to any chance to buy low. He’s going to become a really good player still.

[Dark Faze]

Kuz means a lot to the locker room. He's the guy grinning and keeping spirits high despite the team being god awful. He's also a fan favorite in general to watch on the court.

That being said I think he's probably gone for sure at the deadline and I think it won't be a coincidence that it's at that time that the energy starts to deteriorate surrounding this team. But Kuz's salary is declining significantly year over year with the way it was structured. A contending team will almost certainly give up a first for him.

[nate33]

I've watched OKC several times and I have no interest in giddey. Even before his off court issues he was just bad. Not very athletic and can't shoot, not a great combo.

I agree. Giddey looks like Avdija without the good defense.

He is probably a better passer and ball handler than Avdija, but it doesn't really matter because in today's NBA, you can't play PG unless you are an unstoppable penetrator or you can hit 3's off the dribble (and thereby leverage the pick-and-roll to get penetration). Giddey can't do either of these things; so instead of being a PG, here is merely a non-shooting "connector" role player at the SF position. As we have seen with Avdija, those guys are kind of hard to accommodate in your offensive system because of the lack of spacing, and it's only really worth it if they provide exceptional defense at the other end of the floor. At least Avdija can do that. Giddey can't.

Obviously, things would change (for both Giddey and Avdija) if they develop a reliable 3-ball. Giddey is still quite young.

[nate33]

Kuz means a lot to the locker room. He's the guy grinning and keeping spirits high despite the team being god awful. He's also a fan favorite in general to watch on the court.

That being said I think he's probably gone for sure at the deadline and I think it won't be a coincidence that it's at that time that the energy starts to deteriorate surrounding this team. But Kuz's salary is declining significantly year over year with the way it was structured. A contending team will almost certainly give up a first for him.

I seriously doubt Kuzma will be traded this season - not unless we get two FRP's. I'd say there's maybe a 10% chance he is traded. I definitely disagree with the statement that "he's probably gone for sure at the deadline".

I think the Wizards brain trust are all in agreement that you can't rebuild without some veterans setting the tone. They have no interest in throwing 5 young guys on the floor and just having them figure things out.

The one caveat is if they are eyeing free agency this summer to make a big move. Maybe they have their sights set on OG Anunoby and would use the cap room generated from Kuzma's trade to go after him in the offseason. OG just turned 26. If they could trade Kuzma for 2 firsts and then sign a youngish guy like OG, that could accelerate the rebuild timetable a little bit. I could see them going after Immanuel Quickley as well. A lineup that looks like this next season could be interesting:

PG Quickley, Rollins
SG Coulibaly, Kispert
SF Buzelis, Avdija
PF Anunoby, Avdija
C Gafford, (mid-FRP), Vukcevic

(noticed how I casually didn't include Jordan Poole)

[NatP4]

Kuz means a lot to the locker room. He's the guy grinning and keeping spirits high despite the team being god awful. He's also a fan favorite in general to watch on the court.

That being said I think he's probably gone for sure at the deadline and I think it won't be a coincidence that it's at that time that the energy starts to deteriorate surrounding this team. But Kuz's salary is declining significantly year over year with the way it was structured. A contending team will almost certainly give up a first for him.

The narrative around Kuzma has gotten a bit silly. He’s still been a total boat anchor in terms of his on/off numbers, just like the rest of his career. He’s not a good player at all.

He might be good for the culture, but this team is absolutely horrible because the two highest usage players are really bad. There’s benefit to simply removing those guys and giving more opportunities to players like Butler, Davis, Baldwin, Rollins, eventually Vukcevic, Deni, Bilal, Kispert etc.

If a team offered a late lottery pick and an expiring contract, it would be completely asinine to turn it down.

[pcbothwel]

Nate... I think we are truly looking at 2025/26 as the first year of making the turn. Our pick is only protected for top 8, so it behooves us to get at top 3 pick in 2024, and a top 8 pick in 2025. That gives us two high level prospects to go with Deni and Bilal.
We need to get value out of Tyus and/or Delon Wright as they are expiring.
At some point, we NEED to move Poole, but I just cant wrap my head around who could possibly take him without us paying to do so.

MAYBE a Simmons + Clowney for Poole + Gafford trade COULD work... but I dont think Brooklyn does that.
CJ McCollum has a contract that ends a year earlier, so maybe that could be a match if he falls off next year, but I dont see it yet.

[nate33]

Nate... I think we are truly looking at 2025/26 as the first year of making the turn. Our pick is only protected for top 8, so it behooves us to get at top 3 pick in 2024, and a top 8 pick in 2025. That gives us two high level prospects to go with Deni and Bilal.
We need to get value out of Tyus and/or Delon Wright as they are expiring.
At some point, we NEED to move Poole, but I just cant wrap my head around who could possibly take him without us paying to do so.

MAYBE a Simmons + Clowney for Poole + Gafford trade COULD work... but I dont think Brooklyn does that.
CJ McCollum has a contract that ends a year earlier, so maybe that could be a match if he falls off next year, but I dont see it yet.

Yeah, I agree. I don't think management is going to be too aggressive in free agency this summer for that very reason: we have to make sure we finish in the bottom 8 next season. I think they might kick the tires on an Immanuel Quickley signing, but I seriously doubt they go after a real expensive role player like OG Anunoby.

I'd be okay if they sold high on Tyus right now for a first round pick, and then replaced him with Quickley in free agency.

Regarding Poole, I agree that he is immovable now. If he has a good hot streak, maybe he can be moved for one of those shorter bad contracts you mentioned, but I think we are stuck with him for a couple of years. I just wish Wes would treat him differently. Rather than cater to his ego in an attempt to maintain his confidence, I think Poole needs some serious tough love. His problem isn't confidence. It's laziness and inattention to detail on defense.

[nate33]

The narrative around Kuzma has gotten a bit silly. He’s still been a total boat anchor in terms of his on/off numbers, just like the rest of his career. He’s not a good player at all.

He might be good for the culture, but this team is absolutely horrible because the two highest usage players are really bad. There’s benefit to simply removing those guys and giving more opportunities to players like Butler, Davis, Baldwin, Rollins, eventually Vukcevic, Deni, Bilal, Kispert etc.

If a team offered a late lottery pick and an expiring contract, it would be completely asinine to turn it down.

We've talked about this before. It's misleading to rely on on/off numbers when comparing starters to the bench. ALL of our starters have horrific on/off numbers because they are going up against the opposition's best players and a game plan that is focused on stopping our guys.

To put it in numerical terms, let's use a scale of 1-10. Our starters average a 6 and our bench averages a 3. A normal team's starters average an 8 and their bench averages a 3. Our starters are getting consistently and totally outplayed by the opposition while the bench holds their own. The starters end up with a terrible on/off differential and the bench looks good. But this does not mean our bench is better than our starters.

[NatP4]

That doesn’t hold up when Kuzma has been a total boat anchor for his entire career regardless of team/role.

[payitforward]

My counter to that: what if the Kuzma we're seeing is an outlier? Right now he has very similar production to Pascal Siakam, which is great, but he's never been this productive at this level of efficiency....

1. Although Siakam had two very good seasons, his 2d & 3d in the league, he has been nothing special since then. Yes, he scores a lot of points, but at 56.7% his career TS% is below average for a 4. Overall, he's about average for a 4 on the rest of the stuff. Which makes him below average overall.

2. OTOH, neither this year nor any other year with one exception (see below) has Kuz been as good as Siakam.

This year, for example, compared to Siakam, Kuz is fouling slightly more, turning the ball over more, getting fewer assists, rebounding a bit less well, & getting fewer steals. He is blocking more shots -- but that doesn't suffice to make up for all those other shortfalls in his play. He does score almost 5 more points per 36 minutes, but doing so requires him to use 5 more possessions than does Siakam. Which is why his TS% is .560 compared to Siakam at .580.

Still, he got off to a far better start than in previous years, but at this point, If one compares his numbers so far this year to his numbers in his two best seasons (see below), overall they are about the same.

The best thing is that, all the same, his TS% is still up -- it's at a career high! -- & that's obviously a good thing. Especially on career-hiigh usage!

Overall, all the same, Kuzma's 2 best seasons were 2020-21 (his last year with the Lakers) & 2021-2, his first year with us.

He was within 2 minutes of leading the entire Lakers team in minutes his final year there, & he was second only to Lebron & Anthony Davis in minutes per game (plus, those guys only played in 45 & 36 games respectively). His numbers were equal to Siakam's that year. The following year, his first with us, was quite similar, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse.

In neither of those years, btw, did he score efficiently. In fact, both years he was right on his career average of .546.

Last year, his usage went up 20% while his efficiency dropped ever so slightly. Keep in mind that his TS% was already below average for a 4 (or a 3 for that matter). Higher usage at lower efficiency means you wind up with even worse numbers than if your usage hadn't changed.

Overall, therefore, Kuz was a fair bit worse last year than he'd been his final season in LA & his first with us. Naturally, the media called it "a breakout year for Kyle Kuzma." Why? Because he scored more points! As if how many shots it took him to score his points was irrelevant. Didn't matter at all.

Conlusion: overall, through the end of last season, Kyle Kuzma has been a below average combo forward even in his best years. Still is this year.

[payitforward]

Cade with a very very good game. 43 points 7 assists 5 rebounds 3 steals and a block on 16-24 shooting from the field, 3-5 from the 3 and 8-9 from the FT Line in 44 minutes. Pistons losing streak continues.

Goodbye to any chance to buy low. He’s going to become a really good player still.

I don't think there was ever a buy low option.

I'd love to see him blow up. In fact... I hate the fact that one of the great long-time franchises of the NBA looks so bad. Love to see all their young guys develop well -- Cade, Duren, Thompson, Ivey & Sasser (who has looked pretty good, btw...).

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Cade with a very very good game. 43 points 7 assists 5 rebounds 3 steals and a block on 16-24 shooting from the field, 3-5 from the 3 and 8-9 from the FT Line in 44 minutes. Pistons losing streak continues.

Goodbye to any chance to buy low. He’s going to become a really good player still.

I don't think there was ever a buy low option.

I'd love to see him blow up. In fact... I hate the fact that one of the great long-time franchises of the NBA looks so bad. Love to see all their young guys develop well -- Cade, Duren, Thompson, Ivey & Sasser (who has looked pretty good, btw...).

Disagree. One can't be a true fan without schadenfreude.

[payitforward]

Yeah but it's a pleasure that wears out over time.

OTOH, I'm preparing a big batch for when Boston tumbles!

[penbeast0]

...

PG Quickley, Rollins
SG Coulibaly, Kispert
SF Buzelis, Avdija
PF Anunoby, Avdija
C Gafford, (mid-FRP), Vukcevic

(noticed how I casually didn't include Jordan Poole)

A few things, Nate.
(a) You think Rollins beats out Jared Butler for the reserve PG slot or you think Butler goes elsewhere?
(b) You think Bilal is going to be a 2 long-term, rather than a forward?
(c) You think either OG or Deni is a 4 long-term?

I also doubt Vukcevic makes it, it's always a crap shoot with 2nd rounders and we haven't seen anything out of him yet, but as there is no one else around, can't really question that.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Yeah but it's a pleasure that wears out over time.

OTOH, I'm preparing a big batch for when Boston tumbles!

I'll drink to that.

[nate33]

...

PG Quickley, Rollins
SG Coulibaly, Kispert
SF Buzelis, Avdija
PF Anunoby, Avdija
C Gafford, (mid-FRP), Vukcevic

(noticed how I casually didn't include Jordan Poole)

A few things, Nate.
(a) You think Rollins beats out Jared Butler for the reserve PG slot or you think Butler goes elsewhere?
(b) You think Bilal is going to be a 2 long-term, rather than a forward?
(c) You think either OG or Deni is a 4 long-term?

I also doubt Vukcevic makes it, it's always a crap shoot with 2nd rounders and we haven't seen anything out of him yet, but as there is no one else around, can't really question that.

(a) - I don't know. But I do know Rollins is under contract.
(b) - I think of positions as what position you guard, not what position you play. Of that starting 5, Bilal is the best guy to guard shooting guards. Offensively, I imagine Buzelis would play the "shooting guard" role and Bilal would be more of a small forward.
(c) - I don't really think "4" is a position anymore. It's now just a bunch of "3.5's" in both forward roles.

[penbeast0]

I think they are starting to move back to traditional two bigs with winning teams having Mobley, Randle, Towns, etc. And I thought Deni was the one guarding down to 2's (relative to Kuzma, of course, not Coulibaly). Is Deni as good guarding up as he is guarding down?

[nate33]

I think they are starting to move back to traditional two bigs with winning teams having Mobley, Randle, Towns, etc. And I thought Deni was the one guarding down to 2's (relative to Kuzma, of course, not Coulibaly). Is Deni as good guarding up as he is guarding down?

Probably not quite as good. He's not bad at it or anything, and he is better than Kuzma to be sure. But I've seen Randle and Siakam get the better of him from time to time.

I think Deni's best defensive skill is navigating screens, and he doesn't really have the opportunity to do that as much when guarding up. When guarding up, he does a nice job of holding position and bumping the shooter with his body as he shoots, but sometimes tall guys just make it anyhow. Deni doesn't really have the length to block the shot.

[The Consiglieri]

Kuz means a lot to the locker room. He's the guy grinning and keeping spirits high despite the team being god awful. He's also a fan favorite in general to watch on the court.

That being said I think he's probably gone for sure at the deadline and I think it won't be a coincidence that it's at that time that the energy starts to deteriorate surrounding this team. But Kuz's salary is declining significantly year over year with the way it was structured. A contending team will almost certainly give up a first for him.

The narrative around Kuzma has gotten a bit silly. He’s still been a total boat anchor in terms of his on/off numbers, just like the rest of his career. He’s not a good player at all.

He might be good for the culture, but this team is absolutely horrible because the two highest usage players are really bad. There’s benefit to simply removing those guys and giving more opportunities to players like Butler, Davis, Baldwin, Rollins, eventually Vukcevic, Deni, Bilal, Kispert etc.

If a team offered a late lottery pick and an expiring contract, it would be completely asinine to turn it down.

I can't speak to his relative talent or not, I just think we need to be smart about how we handle him as an asset for the rebuild. There is an assumption with some of the posts that his value will peak as his contract becomes a greater bargain, which is true potentially, but only true if he continues to produce efficiently, and avoids injury. Dude turns 30 next season, and we can't afford (to me anyway) to play silly games with the last asset of no interest to the theoretical competitive Wizards of the future, 4 or 5 years from now if everything goes right. We already pissed away Beal's value to less than nothing with four years of inaction followed by a total implosion of his value to the point where he became a literal negative asset. Kuzma's the last piece we have that we all know has no role whatsoever in a future Wizard team that isn't total ---.

With that knowledge in tow, can you really afford to play "chicken" with age based decline trajectories, and injury risk? I don't think so. At all. I could give a rat's --- about his effect on the locker room or chemistry, What percentage of the current roster is theoretically still here when we first attempt to become a legit contender entering a season in the future (I would fine any assertion that this can begin earlier than '26-'27 laughable, and view '27-'28 as more likely simply because of how utterly barren our cupboard was when we started the rebuild in '23, and how ---- the next two draft classes supposedly are (certainly this one anyway).

To me, while there's value in chemistry, in building a locker room competitive spirit rather than a spirit of failure, the spirit of failure is already endemic in Wizardland. Nobody with a brain in his skull thinks anything this FO has done in decades has been intelligent. A touch here or there of half decent teams w/half decent builds nearly 20 years ago, and a decade ago, but that's basically it. It's been all failure the past five years, and as previously mentioned there is next to nothing in house right now beyond Bilal that has a hope in hell of being around when this team might finally be more than a 15 to 30 win team four or five years from now, minimum.

As such, Kuzma's value is exclusively based on what we can get back for him before his decline and/or an injury destroyed the compensation we might get. As such he needs to be traded sometime between this deadline and next while we all acknowledge the fact that if he isn't traded this deadline, we run a tangible risk of him having zero, or negative value the next time we have an opportunity to sell. And while saying that, I fully acknowledge we might get more for him in deadline '25, or the '25 offseason, but how much more, and is it really worth the risk of playing around with his age 30 season and the injury risk, or performance decline that could arrive, at any time? I'd lean towards hell no. I'd move him sometime in the next 3, or 8 months, assuming he's healthy and move on. I simply don't think it's worth the risk to choose any other direction considering the paltry assets we are left with after totally and utterly bungling the handling of Beal.