nate33 wrote:JAR69 wrote:I agree with Nate that Beal-Simmons is the best core of a deal for us. But if that doesn't happen, my lean is that a Boston picks/players package is the best plan B. I am assuming Boston won't give us Brown in this scenario, which clearly would be better.
The core of the trade would be Beal for Smart, Richardson, Nesmith, and picks/swaps. (Note that Boston has all of its future firsts.) Leaving Boston with its core gives it a strong incentive to produce enough picks/swaps to get us close to the Jrue Holiday package. They also are likely to be the most confident team that Beal will resign. I think we would need two unprotected firsts (2022 and 2024) and at least one swap (I'd push it out as far as possible - say, 2027). I'd happily push for a second sooner swap, too.
Then I would trade Smart to Minnesota for Beverly and a 2022 first round pick. I'm OK with top 10 protection, or full lottery protection plus getting our 2022 second round pick back. I would also trade Richardson to the highest bidder - hopefully an expiring plus a late first, but I'd take a good second.
The haul would be:
2 unprotected BOS firsts
1 BOS swap
1 protected MIN first
Possible WAS second
What we get for Richardson
Nesmith
That compares OK with the Jrue package of 3 MIL firsts, two unlikely swaps, Eric Bledsoe, and George Hill.
Two possible variations on the trade. First, we could also push them to take Bertans into their trade exception. My guess is that would cost us one of the firsts. Second, we could push for a Gafford/Williams swap. Their numbers are similar per 36, but Timelord does it in 29 mins/game while Gaff is only good for 20. Also, Williams' efficiency numbers are better. I'm not sure what that would cost us.
If we add the Bertans part but not Gafford/Williams, our core salary for next year would be about $63 million (Dinwiddie, KCP, Kuzma, Rui, Deni, Kispert, Gafford, and Todd). We could drop another $9 million by cutting KCP before his guarantee kicks in - that puts us at $54 million plus picks plus roster charges). Williams, FWIW, adds back about $9 million.
None of this considers trading Trez, KCP, or Bryant, who don't get much but something.
Of course, we won't do anything like this, and will instead trade the future to rent Sabonis and the shoot for the 8th spot.
A respected franchise like Boston with competent people in the front office is going to remain a winning team for a long time if they have a core of Tatum, Brown and Beal. All those picks we get from Boston will be in the mid 20's and those pick swaps will never happen.
You just traded Beal for Nesmith and two future picks in the 20's
Of course they will be in the 20s. And the Minnesota pick will be in the 15-20 range. But we would be getting those three picks, a swap, and more draft assets. Again, my comparison is the Jrue Holiday package.
The chance to get a top-ten pick (and even more) for Beal has passed, unless we can get Simmons. Other than Simmons, most other trades bring back highly flawed and expensive players like Fox. I think the best plan B is to get as many draft assets/young players with potential as possible, without burdening our cap situation for years to come. I see Boston as best positioned to give us those assets, because unlike most other teams, they can expect to be able to resign Beal and have a strong enough core to see Beal as putting them into contention.
Picks in the 20s and teens aren't exciting, and you can denigrate them. But I think they are better than the other non-Simmons centered options (including resigning Beal to a supermax, or even something a bit less than that).
