Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[prime1time]

What makes Jaren Jackson Jr better than Thomas Bryant?

Not much offensively. But defensively, JJJ is fabulous - able to mirror the moves of the player he is defending and provide rim protection.

Should I be concerned about his lack of rebounding?

[payitforward]

No, I wouldn’t trade Beal for JJJ. But that wasn’t the question I was responding to. This is the question I was responding to:

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

Understood. I'm sure pcbothwei has ways to support his view, but obviously that's not happening. What got this discussion going was Ruz proposing a trade of Beal for Jackson (admittedly w/ other value coming from Memphis too).

[payitforward]

It's not that hard. Just look at total production and efficiency - PER and TS%. In their rookie years - both at 19: KG had a PER of 15.8 and a TS% of .522. JJJ had 16.4 and .591. That's a huge difference, and you really can't get around it by picking and choosing individual stats just because they fit your pre-determined position.

In their second year, KG took over the lead in production, but JJJ still had a huge advantage in efficiency. KG had a PER of 18.2 and a TS% OF .537. JJJ had a PER of 16.3 and a TS% OF .593.

Why would you completely ignore scoring and scoring efficiency?

I didn't ignore either one, Ruz. But, PER way over-values shooting the ball. If my FG% is, say, 40%, & i take a shot & miss it, my PER goes up not down.

Nor did I "pick and choose individual stats." I used my customary method to add all the box score pluses & subtract all the minuses. The result between them isn't real close.

But... where can this go, really? & what's the point? I.e. the next thing would be arguing about how to measure the meaning of the stats themselves, & that just leads to an argument with no point & no possible resulution.

JJJ is a super-talented kid; no one would deny that! The two big things that would make him more productive are to foul less (a lot less!) & to rebound better. No reason he can't or won't do either of them. As for his potential as a trade target -- I can't imagine trading Beal to get him. Other proposals could be interesting.

Still, for me at least, the big problem is that JJJ got worse his second year in the area where he had the biggest need to get better -- rebounding. & that he didn't improve in the other biggest problem area -- fouls. Those things make me worry about his commitment & bbiq. (not saying they rule him out -- just saying those are problematic)

Yes you did ignore it - you certainly didn't mention it before, and you still haven't really addressed scoring efficiency, but enough's enough. I think you're COMPLETELY wrong on this, and obviously you feel the same way.

...Garnett was far better than JJJ both as a rookie & his 2d year. Jackson was a better scorer. Otherwise it isn't close. ....

[Ruzious]

My mistake. I think what threw me was all the detail about everything but scoring and scoring efficiency.

[payitforward]

My mistake. I think what threw me was all the detail about everything but scoring and scoring efficiency.

NBD.

It is so great to have a meaningful game before us -- especially the chance to knock off the Celtics...!

[Frichuela]

As a few have mentioned, the idea of trading for Christian Wood could be appealing in getting that 3rd star.

On the trade board a Rockets fan is proposing the following trade:

Assuming the wizards make the playoffs and get the 15th pick:

Wizards out:
Thomas Bryant
Lower protections on owed 2023 pick to top-8, top-5, top-5, top-5, 2 2nds
Pick #15 2021 draft

Rockets out:
Christian Wood
Pick #24 2021 draft

If would also send them Hutchison so the salaries are better aligned (I ma sure they would not mind take a flier on him for a season).

Wood is signed for two more years and could truly play the 4 (next to Gafford) or the 5 for us. At #24 Butler will be surely gone but there are a few combo-guard options, of which Tre Mann is my favorite.

Our roster could look as follows:

Westbrook/Ish or Neto ($3M 1Y)/Winston (2-way)
Beal/Mann (#24)/Matthews ($9M 3Y)
Advija/Torrey Craig ($8M 2Y)/Homesley
Rui/Bertans
Wood/Gafford/Len (Vet min)

[payitforward]

Acquiring Christian Wood by trading for him won't make us better. We'll have to give what he's worth. Thus, we'll wind up with the same quality team we had before the trade. The way you acquire a player like Wood is to get him when his market value is low.

The truth of this is exemplified right before our eyes right now -- Daniel Gafford.

It wasn't long after Wood went undrafted in '15 that a few of us here started calling for the Wizards to sign him. I'm pretty sure most of those clamoring to trade for him now had nothing to say when he was available free. Rinse & repeat for Seth Curry, Deshaun Holmes, T.J. McConnell, DeAnthony Melton, & a sizable list of other guys whom some of us wanted to sign, or to buy a R2 pick in order to acquire him.

Of course, there's another list of guys some of us liked -- & they didn't work out at all! Still, unless you acquire most of your players when their market value is lower than their actual worth, you're unlikely ever to have a really good team. & Christian Wood was available that way for years!

Especially important: because these guys don't cost much, you can afford to be wrong about a fair number of them.

Edit: one of the things that has made Tommy Sheppard an effective GM since he took over is precisely this ability to identify extremely undervalued players & acquire them for little or nothing: Thomas Bryant, Davis Bertans, Moe Wagner, Garrison Mathews, etc. all the way up to Gafford.

[doclinkin]

Acquiring Christian Wood by trading for him won't make us better. We'll have to give what he's worth. Thus, we'll wind up with the same quality team we had before the trade. The way you acquire a player like Wood is to get him when his market value is low.

The truth of this is exemplified right before our eyes right now -- Daniel Gafford.

It wasn't long after Wood went undrafted in '15 that a few of us here started calling for the Wizards to sign him. I'm pretty sure most of those clamoring to trade for him now had nothing to say when he was available free. Rinse & repeat for Seth Curry, Deshaun Holmes, T.J. McConnell, DeAnthony Melton, & a sizable list of other guys whom some of us wanted to sign, or to buy a R2 pick in order to acquire

Richaun Holmes. Yeah I wanted him in the draft with our #19 pick, and to buy or trade for a 2nd rounder when he was available then. Instead we traded up to get Kelly Oubre. Losing 2 future 2nds. Then later when he had proved he could do it in the league, PHX simply bought him from Philly.

Grunfelded.

[Ruzious]

Acquiring Christian Wood by trading for him won't make us better. We'll have to give what he's worth. Thus, we'll wind up with the same quality team we had before the trade. The way you acquire a player like Wood is to get him when his market value is low.

I can't even "deal" with that kind of logic.

The way you acquire a player like Wood is to get him when his market value is low.

This I agree with - which is why it makes sense to go after a player like JJJ now. Wood's value also will likely increase if he stays healthy.

[payitforward]

Acquiring Christian Wood by trading for him won't make us better. We'll have to give what he's worth. Thus, we'll wind up with the same quality team we had before the trade. The way you acquire a player like Wood is to get him when his market value is low.

I can't even "deal" with that kind of logic.

I could have been a little clearer. When you trade for a guy like Gafford, who hasn't established himself in any way, you can do well.

But, when you wait for someone like Christian Wood to establish himself, be valued highly, & earn a sizable pay-day, you'll have to give as much as you get in order to trade for him.

Of course, a trade like that can work for both trade partners -- e.g. they may need to balance depth at different positions -- but, it's not a way to create an immediate jump in the talent level of your team.

The way you acquire a player like Wood is to get him when his market value is low.

This I agree with - which is why it makes sense to go after a player like JJJ now. Wood's value also will likely increase if he stays healthy.

The point about Wood is that in his case "low" was... nothing! No value at all. Just sign him. If it doesn't work out it didn't cost you anything to speak of. Think Khem Birch as another example of the same phenomenon. Or Danuel House. Wood is better than those guys, but the principle is the same.

That's not JJJ, Ruz! He was the 3d pick in the draft, & everybody knows how much potential he has. You'd have to give a lot to get him -- yet, it's by no means certain he'll develop into a big time player -- starting next year, his 4th year in the league! That's not a low-cost bet like signing Wood when you & I were calling for it! Or Garrison Mathews or Daniel Gafford for that matter.

For potential, I'm willing to trade potential: I'd certainly trade Rui plus something for JJJ. But, you were talking about going all in -- Brad Beal for JJJ (plus some more, admittedly...).

[payitforward]

Ruz -- knowing how much you like Desmond Bane, I almost thought he might be the unconscious motivation behind your proposal to move Beal to Memphis.

So... how about we leave the big guns out of it -- what about Rui Hachimura for Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman. I'd do that in a minute -- would you?

But, do you think Memphis would go for it? I'm doubtful. What if we add our R1 pick (if it's non-lottery), & they add DeAnthony Melton?

[Ruzious]

Ruz -- knowing how much you like Desmond Bane, I almost thought he might be the unconscious motivation behind your proposal to move Beal to Memphis.

So... how about we leave the big guns out of it -- what about Rui Hachimura for Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman. I'd do that in a minute -- would you?

But, do you think Memphis would go for it? I'm doubtful. What if we add our R1 pick (if it's non-lottery), & they add DeAnthony Melton?

Pif, Wood was a rare case. We were both all over that. I was all over him when I saw putting up great numbers for the Bucks' D League team (before they change to the G League) before he had even signed an NBA contract. When he finally did sign an NBA contract (and still wasn't in the NBA), I congratulated him on his twitter account - I was amazed there was only one other person even saying anything there.

Yes, Bane one of my guys - a player I was pushing for before the draft. He was drafted about 10 picks lower than I thought he would. And Melton was a player I liked - another player who was slowed by a major injury. I talked a lot about both Melton and Milton from that draft - with Melton having the bigger upside. And I was comparing Tillman to Draymond Green before it was popular - though not until seeing Doc discuss him.

I think we could actually get more for Rui and our FRP, but I would definitely be tempted to make that trade.

[payitforward]

Ruz -- knowing how much you like Desmond Bane, I almost thought he might be the unconscious motivation behind your proposal to move Beal to Memphis.

So... how about we leave the big guns out of it -- what about Rui Hachimura for Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman. I'd do that in a minute -- would you?

But, do you think Memphis would go for it? I'm doubtful. What if we add our R1 pick (if it's non-lottery), & they add DeAnthony Melton?

Pif, Wood was a rare case. We were both all over that. I was all over him when I saw putting up great numbers for the Bucks' D League team (before they change to the G League) before he had even signed an NBA contract. When he finally did sign an NBA contract (and still wasn't in the NBA), I congratulated him on his twitter account - I was amazed there was only one other person even saying anything there.

Yes, Bane one of my guys - a player I was pushing for before the draft. He was drafted about 10 picks lower than I thought he would. And Melton was a player I liked - another player who was slowed by a major injury. I talked a lot about both Melton and Milton from that draft - with Melton having the bigger upside. And I was comparing Tillman to Draymond Green before it was popular - though not until seeing Doc discuss him.

I think we could actually get more for Rui and our FRP, but I would definitely be tempted to make that trade.

Could we get Bane, Tillman & Melton straight up for Rui?

(Melton actually was in the '18 draft....)

[payitforward]

Pif, Wood was a rare case....

Look at it a little differently. Wood was an extreme example of a process that goes on constantly, in which guys are significantly under-valued.

Moreover, once a guy is under-valued, that quite often leads to him being under-valued again -- i.e. it's a self-reinforcing process. Overall, the more you are able to crack this process & take advantage of mistakes of this kind, the better a team you can build.

It's not always as extreme as with Wood, but opportunities to profit from it are always available. Again, Gafford is an example, so is Melton.

This seems to be one of Tommy's particularly valuable skills: viz. Bryant, Bertans, Neto, Gafford, Mathews, Gill, Len, Bonga, Wagner.... Go back a little further, & you find Gortat. Along with most of a whole generation of the San Antonio Spurs!

(Of course, the opposite is also in play: guys who are over-valued, & then over-valued again & again. The poster child for that is Austin Rivers: when Ernie acquired him for Gortat, virtually this entire board thought it was a terrific move.)

Then there are the related pairs: guys who are somehow connected except one of them is way over-rated & the other is way under-rated. I bet you can think of one fairly obvious example of such a pair, Ruz. I sure can.

[nate33]

(Of course, the opposite is also in play: guys who are over-valued, & then over-valued again & again. The poster child for that is Austin Rivers: when Ernie acquired him for Gortat, virtually this entire board thought it was a terrific move.) .

The Gortat for Rivers trade was purely about salary. In both cases the traded players were expiring contracts. The point was to trade for a smaller expiring contract and thereby reduce luxtax payments. Nobody thought Rivers was any good.

[pcbothwel]

Ruz -- knowing how much you like Desmond Bane, I almost thought he might be the unconscious motivation behind your proposal to move Beal to Memphis.

So... how about we leave the big guns out of it -- what about Rui Hachimura for Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman. I'd do that in a minute -- would you?

But, do you think Memphis would go for it? I'm doubtful. What if we add our R1 pick (if it's non-lottery), & they add DeAnthony Melton?

Pif, Wood was a rare case. We were both all over that. I was all over him when I saw putting up great numbers for the Bucks' D League team (before they change to the G League) before he had even signed an NBA contract. When he finally did sign an NBA contract (and still wasn't in the NBA), I congratulated him on his twitter account - I was amazed there was only one other person even saying anything there.

Yes, Bane one of my guys - a player I was pushing for before the draft. He was drafted about 10 picks lower than I thought he would. And Melton was a player I liked - another player who was slowed by a major injury. I talked a lot about both Melton and Milton from that draft - with Melton having the bigger upside. And I was comparing Tillman to Draymond Green before it was popular - though not until seeing Doc discuss him.

I think we could actually get more for Rui and our FRP, but I would definitely be tempted to make that trade.

Could we get Bane, Tillman & Melton straight up for Rui?

(Melton actually was in the '18 draft....)

I wont argue whether I like that trade or not, because it wont happen. Any trade with Rui will be as part of acquiring a bigger fish. We've invested too much into him and his effect on the brand to sell him off for rotational pieces. Again, Im not arguing the value... but the overall direction the team will take.

[payitforward]

Oh, I agree -- Rui has unique marketing value for the Wizards brand. Ted won't trade him unless he sees that start falling, which I doubt will happen.

[payitforward]

(Of course, the opposite is also in play: guys who are over-valued, & then over-valued again & again. The poster child for that is Austin Rivers: when Ernie acquired him for Gortat, virtually this entire board thought it was a terrific move.) .

The Gortat for Rivers trade was purely about salary. In both cases the traded players were expiring contracts. The point was to trade for a smaller expiring contract and thereby reduce luxtax payments. Nobody thought Rivers was any good.

That was how this board saw the trade, nate? Is that what you mean? That nobody here thought Rivers was any good?

[nate33]

(Of course, the opposite is also in play: guys who are over-valued, & then over-valued again & again. The poster child for that is Austin Rivers: when Ernie acquired him for Gortat, virtually this entire board thought it was a terrific move.) .

The Gortat for Rivers trade was purely about salary. In both cases the traded players were expiring contracts. The point was to trade for a smaller expiring contract and thereby reduce luxtax payments. Nobody thought Rivers was any good.

That was how this board saw the trade, nate? Is that what you mean? That nobody here thought Rivers was any good?

Correct. Everyone knew he was a low efficiency gunner. Sure, there was a little hope that maybe, just maybe, the young player might figure things out. But nobody expected it. The bottom line was that Gortat was over the hill, and it was time to rebuild.

[Ruzious]

How about - Can we trade for JJJ without giving up Beal or Gafford? It's hard, because they've got a lot of depth.