Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[doclinkin]

Regardless of how it happened here with the Wiz, I do think teams that load up on youth tend to fail. Or continue to fail. It's one reason why I argue against the concept of drafting 4 rookies every year. And year after year after that.

Still, veterans or no, you aren't winning a chip unless you have a league-wide top 10 best player. Really you need a player who is in the MVP discussion. That guy is not on our team yet. So until we land that player it is fine to continue adding picks to hope to land him.

I do like the veterans we currently have, whether it is one who could be a core player (Tyus) or other professionals who can add experience and know-how before they either expire or are shipped to another team (Gallinari, Wright, Muscala).

We do have youth to develop. Bilal, Baldwin Jr, Johnny Davis, Avdija, Kispert, Rollins, Jared Butler all have 3 years of experience or less. Even Jordan Poole has growth ahead of him. Seems to me ideally you have youth learning from veterans who are at their successful prime, who can actually demonstrate the habits of winning basketball. Haywood talked about how things were run in Dallas and realized how lax everything had been on an organization that doesn't have the same expectations. Work ethic. Routines.

First you win then you get good. I like that Poole is coming from an atmosphere with championship expectations every year, and seemingly absorbed that work ethic watching Stef and Klay get after it. I hope he can maintain that focus on a team that does not have Championship as an immediate possibility.

[DCZards]

^^^^Don't forget Kuz who is regularly lauded for his leadership both on and off the court. He also comes with championship experience...and was heavily influenced by Kobe and shared the court with one of the best to ever play the game.

Here's what Kuz said about his relationship with Kobe in an interview last year.

“You know, the biggest thing he always ever said was ‘keep the main thing, the main thing,’ that was one thing. And two just, that was like my north star. You may never get there or whatever, but it’s what you get out of it is what you’re trying to reach. So, the ultimate professional, taking care of your body, playing every single game, having this type of mentality like, I’m here for a reason this is my purpose. My purpose tonight is to kill. My purpose tonight is to go out help my team win. Having somebody like that early on in my career, changed everything for me.

“I could say the same thing about Bron coming year 2 and seeing it from a player perspective cuz, you know, Kobe was here, but he was gone and retired at this point so it was like word of mouth, but Bron I’m really seeing it too. Just having that relationship with Kobe it was everything. I still have the text messages, like we just never deleted them. Just things to go back on, things to think of, he was just so smart about everything. Putting you on game of things you wouldn’t even think of. The attention to detail he had in basketball he had in life, he had in business, he had in relationships and that’s what I want for my life.”

[nate33]

Just listened to a Bill Simmons podcast where they held a fake expansion draft. Teams were allowed to protect 8 players, and they didn't have to protect their 2023 picks, so no need to worry about Coulibaly or Vukcevic. Under that premise, who do you think the Wizards would protect?

IMO, there are 6 no-brainers. These guys will definitely be protected.
Jones
Poole
Kispert
Avdija
Kuzma
Gafford

I figure most of our expiring contract, neutral value older vets will definitely be unprotected. That list includes:
Cooks
Gill
Muscala
Gallinari
Shamet

So that just leaves:
Davis
Baldwin
Rollins
Wright (I put him here because he is better than neutral value)

You get to protect 2 of that last group of 4. Who would you protect?

I'd go with Davis and Wright.

[payitforward]

Wright is a tradable asset, so of course I'd protect him.

None of the other three have really shown anything. But, sure, common sense would tell a person to protect Davis.

[DCZards]

For me it’s Davis and Baldwin.

I love Wright’s game and I’d hate to lose him for nothing but I’m intrigued by PBJ’s potential. (I know others here feel very differently about him.)

I could see PBJ, who is only 20 yrs old, turning out to be better than anyone the Zards might draft with a second round pick they get for Delon.

[nate33]

For me it’s Davis and Baldwin.

I love Wright’s game and I’d hate to lose him for nothing but I’m intrigued by PBJ’s potential. (I know others here feel very differently about him.)

I could see PBJ, who is only 20 yrs old, turning out to be better than anyone the Zards might draft with a second round pick they get for Delon.

Yeah, this is the real debate. It boils down to how much you like the potential of PBJ. I'm not optimistic at all, but that's just one man's opinion.

[payitforward]

Zards -- the issue you raise crossed my mind as well -- about Baldwin & his upside, obviously. I don't want to lose Baldwin at this point, & for that matter I don't really want to lose Rollins either!

You can't build a team without finding out how good your prospects are. Without traveling through a lot of unknowns. & hopefully coming out of it with some unexpectedly good results. Otherwise, you're just playing a parity game: why should you expect to wind up with a roster that's better than average?

From that POV, for sure, it's Baldwin over Wright. Maybe even Rollins over Wright. & Zards is also right that there's no real evidence that using a R2 pick we received for Wright we'd wind up with a player better than either Baldwin or Rollins.

Point is, I guess, that like most real-world decisions this one requires taking some kind of risk -- whichever direction you choose.

One thing that passed through my mind was that if you protected Wright & then lost Baldwin, you probably could trade Wright for Baldwin... & maybe a bit more.

Of course, that's not a sure thing at all; it would depend on the needs of the team that snatched PBJ. Which brings us right back to what our needs are. & since we are trying to build a very different, much younger team, one with the potential to contend for -- to win! -- a title, I think Zards is right & I was hasty in protecting Donel. In fact, I would work hard to protect all 3 of Davis, Rollins & Baldwin if at all possible.

[doclinkin]

One thing that passed through my mind was that if you protected Wright & then lost Baldwin, you probably could trade Wright for Baldwin... & maybe a bit more.

Or if you protected Wright and left PBJ exposed you could gamble that the expansion team would not pick him with one of their 15 picks, given that he has not yet done enough in the league to really attract interest. We got him for basically the last pick in the 2nd round. Wright however has proven himself to be a useful player, thus would have a higher chance of being selected than an unknown who was let to dangle by 2 teams already (W's, and us in the expansion draft).

[doclinkin]

That said the kid we saw in HS before the multi-time leg injury, and before the bout with COVID, is a player worth a gamble as far as I'm concerned. This guy looks like he can play:

Watch on YouTube

[Kanyewest]

Just listened to a Bill Simmons podcast where they held a fake expansion draft. Teams were allowed to protect 8 players, and they didn't have to protect their 2023 picks, so no need to worry about Coulibaly or Vukcevic. Under that premise, who do you think the Wizards would protect?

IMO, there are 6 no-brainers. These guys will definitely be protected.
Jones
Poole
Kispert
Avdija
Kuzma
Gafford

I figure most of our expiring contract, neutral value older vets will definitely be unprotected. That list includes:
Cooks
Gill
Muscala
Gallinari
Shamet

So that just leaves:
Davis
Baldwin
Rollins
Wright (I put him here because he is better than neutral value)

You get to protect 2 of that last group of 4. Who would you protect?

I'd go with Davis and Wright.

Might not make the final 8, but I would consider protecting Jared Butler.

[payitforward]

One thing that passed through my mind was that if you protected Wright & then lost Baldwin, you probably could trade Wright for Baldwin... & maybe a bit more.

Or if you protected Wright and left PBJ exposed you could gamble that the expansion team would not pick him with one of their 15 picks, given that he has not yet done enough in the league to really attract interest. We got him for basically the last pick in the 2nd round. Wright however has proven himself to be a useful player, thus would have a higher chance of being selected than an unknown who was let to dangle by 2 teams already (W's, and us in the expansion draft).

Oh, duh... of course -- in principle you'd want to expose the guys who have the least immediate value! There might be a reason to do otherwise, but that would be the default....

[nate33]

Just listened to a Bill Simmons podcast where they held a fake expansion draft. Teams were allowed to protect 8 players, and they didn't have to protect their 2023 picks, so no need to worry about Coulibaly or Vukcevic. Under that premise, who do you think the Wizards would protect?

IMO, there are 6 no-brainers. These guys will definitely be protected.
Jones
Poole
Kispert
Avdija
Kuzma
Gafford

I figure most of our expiring contract, neutral value older vets will definitely be unprotected. That list includes:
Cooks
Gill
Muscala
Gallinari
Shamet

So that just leaves:
Davis
Baldwin
Rollins
Wright (I put him here because he is better than neutral value)

You get to protect 2 of that last group of 4. Who would you protect?

I'd go with Davis and Wright.

Might not make the final 8, but I would consider protecting Jared Butler.

Yeah, based on Summer League play at least, I honestly like him more than Baldwin or Rollins. I think I'd protect Davis and Wright over him, though. It's too soon to give up on a lotto pick like Davis, and Wright is surely worth a relatively high 2RP which theoretically is more valuable than Butler.

I don't know how two-way guys would be handled in an expansion draft.

[nate33]

One thing that passed through my mind was that if you protected Wright & then lost Baldwin, you probably could trade Wright for Baldwin... & maybe a bit more.

Or if you protected Wright and left PBJ exposed you could gamble that the expansion team would not pick him with one of their 15 picks, given that he has not yet done enough in the league to really attract interest. We got him for basically the last pick in the 2nd round. Wright however has proven himself to be a useful player, thus would have a higher chance of being selected than an unknown who was let to dangle by 2 teams already (W's, and us in the expansion draft).

In the Bill Simmons scenario, there were two expansion teams - each taking 15 guys. No more than 1 guy could be taken from any team, so effectively, all teams would lose 1 guy.

[doclinkin]

One thing that passed through my mind was that if you protected Wright & then lost Baldwin, you probably could trade Wright for Baldwin... & maybe a bit more.

Or if you protected Wright and left PBJ exposed you could gamble that the expansion team would not pick him with one of their 15 picks, given that he has not yet done enough in the league to really attract interest. We got him for basically the last pick in the 2nd round. Wright however has proven himself to be a useful player, thus would have a higher chance of being selected than an unknown who was let to dangle by 2 teams already (W's, and us in the expansion draft).

In the Bill Simmons scenario, there were two expansion teams - each taking 15 guys. No more than 1 guy could be taken from any team, so effectively, all teams would lose 1 guy.

In that scenario we would likely lose Shamet. Role player with a defined skill set, not as useful as Wright, but not an expiring contract, young enough to have value if you choose to keep him beyond the year.

[doclinkin]

But its an interesting exercise for a slow summer: What's the best team you could assemble from the bottom half of every team's roster.

Probably worth its own thread.

[leswizards]

The Wizards have 3 players (Kuzma, Poole, and coulibaly) which the new management is heavily invested in. I would expect Kuzma and Poole to get at least 30 mpg. Coulibaly will probably get 12 mpg, and if he plays well, maybe more.

The Wizards have 4 underpaid young veterans (Jones, Gafford, wright, and kispert). I would be happy either if the team signs all of them for long term team friendly contracts or moves them in the best trade possible. I imagine that as long as these 4 players are on the team, they will each be getting around 30 mpg.

The Wizards have 3 decent older veterans who the team probably has no long term interest in (Gallinari, shamet, and muscala). Gallinari (if healthy and anywhere near his career averages) can probably generate a decent return in a trade. Muscala and shamet probably will only generate a decent return if at the trade deadline, a contender is in desperate need of what they provide. In any other scenario, a trade of these players would be at best a lateral move with no long term upside. If no trade deadline deal materializes, probably best to just let them play out their contracts. Gallinari will probably get 30 mpg, shamet and muscala will probably get 12 to 18 mpg.

The wizards have 3 players who are basically lottery tickets (Rollins, Baldwin, and vukcevic). They didn’t and don’t cost much. They are unlikely to pay off, but if they do, it is huge. All 3 will be stuck to the end of bench except in garbage, and injury time or unless they force wuj to play them.

The wizards have 2 veterans that are pretty good for what they cost, but have almost no value in a trade (gill and cooks).

The wizards have 2 former lottery picks that haven’t been worth the investment, probably will never be worth the investment, and if they do become worth the investment, it probably won’t be until they are near or at free agents status (Davis and avdija).

If I were management, I would be trying to trade those last 4 players for 2 lottery ticket equivalent players (sg and pf) and whatever other assets that I could get.

[doclinkin]

Well reasoned though at 30 years old Wright is in the older veterans category, and fits better in your trade deadline candidate group. IF extended it would be short term. Shamet is only 26, but still probably fits that group as a pretty limited specialist.

I also think Avdija has more value to the front office and team, and they will see if he has developed before they listen to trades. The jury is still out on Davis though. I expect as a year 2 player they will also be patient to see if they can grow value from where he sits right now. Both those players have team value greater than their box score stats since they play defense, tougher to quantify, but a quality lacking in other players at the same position.

Gill will be cut since they need to trim a player from the roster. If Vuk is brought over this year then one other will also be excised from the roster. Cooks I'd bet, but maybe Rollins since we are deep in guards. Training camp will likely determine if we bring over Vuk and what player(s) to cut and keep.

[nate33]

The Wizards have 3 players (Kuzma, Poole, and coulibaly) which the new management is heavily invested in. I would expect Kuzma and Poole to get at least 30 mpg. Coulibaly will probably get 12 mpg, and if he plays well, maybe more.

The Wizards have 4 underpaid young veterans (Jones, Gafford, wright, and kispert). I would be happy either if the team signs all of them for long term team friendly contracts or moves them in the best trade possible. I imagine that as long as these 4 players are on the team, they will each be getting around 30 mpg.

The Wizards have 3 decent older veterans who the team probably has no long term interest in (Gallinari, shamet, and muscala). Gallinari (if healthy and anywhere near his career averages) can probably generate a decent return in a trade. Muscala and shamet probably will only generate a decent return if at the trade deadline, a contender is in desperate need of what they provide. In any other scenario, a trade of these players would be at best a lateral move with no long term upside. If no trade deadline deal materializes, probably best to just let them play out their contracts. Gallinari will probably get 30 mpg, shamet and muscala will probably get 12 to 18 mpg.

The wizards have 3 players who are basically lottery tickets (Rollins, Baldwin, and vukcevic). They didn’t and don’t cost much. They are unlikely to pay off, but if they do, it is huge. All 3 will be stuck to the end of bench except in garbage, and injury time or unless they force wuj to play them.

The wizards have 2 veterans that are pretty good for what they cost, but have almost no value in a trade (gill and cooks).

The wizards have 2 former lottery picks that haven’t been worth the investment, probably will never be worth the investment, and if they do become worth the investment, it probably won’t be until they are near or at free agents status (Davis and avdija).

If I were management, I would be trying to trade those last 4 players for 2 lottery ticket equivalent players (sg and pf) and whatever other assets that I could get.

Interesting take.

I'm open-minded to shopping Avdija, but usually in these cases, you don't really get much in return shopping a guy in the final year of his rookie deal. You would get a Rui Hachimura type of return: a few late 2nd rounders.

With that the case, I think the better high upside gamble is to keep Avdija and give him one more year to put it together. Unlike many young players, Avdija's primary deficiencies are at least theoretically correctable. He's already got starter-caliber talent in most of the qualities that are typically unimprovable (strength, lateral quickness, defensive awareness, work ethic, unselfishness, court vision). With repetition, he can hopefully learn to shoot the 3-ball and improve his touch around the rim.

I consider Avdija and Kispert to be roughly equal in their effectiveness as NBA players. Kispert has a small advantage in the pure box score metrics like WS/48, BPM and PER. Avdija has the edge in EPM and RAPTOR, which incorporate on/off data that recognize his defensive contributions. The big difference is Deni is 2 full years younger than Kispert. If you think Kispert is worth keeping, then Deni is doubly so.

[leswizards]

The Wizards have 3 players (Kuzma, Poole, and coulibaly) which the new management is heavily invested in. I would expect Kuzma and Poole to get at least 30 mpg. Coulibaly will probably get 12 mpg, and if he plays well, maybe more.

The Wizards have 4 underpaid young veterans (Jones, Gafford, wright, and kispert). I would be happy either if the team signs all of them for long term team friendly contracts or moves them in the best trade possible. I imagine that as long as these 4 players are on the team, they will each be getting around 30 mpg.

The Wizards have 3 decent older veterans who the team probably has no long term interest in (Gallinari, shamet, and muscala). Gallinari (if healthy and anywhere near his career averages) can probably generate a decent return in a trade. Muscala and shamet probably will only generate a decent return if at the trade deadline, a contender is in desperate need of what they provide. In any other scenario, a trade of these players would be at best a lateral move with no long term upside. If no trade deadline deal materializes, probably best to just let them play out their contracts. Gallinari will probably get 30 mpg, shamet and muscala will probably get 12 to 18 mpg.

The wizards have 3 players who are basically lottery tickets (Rollins, Baldwin, and vukcevic). They didn’t and don’t cost much. They are unlikely to pay off, but if they do, it is huge. All 3 will be stuck to the end of bench except in garbage, and injury time or unless they force wuj to play them.

The wizards have 2 veterans that are pretty good for what they cost, but have almost no value in a trade (gill and cooks).

The wizards have 2 former lottery picks that haven’t been worth the investment, probably will never be worth the investment, and if they do become worth the investment, it probably won’t be until they are near or at free agents status (Davis and avdija).

If I were management, I would be trying to trade those last 4 players for 2 lottery ticket equivalent players (sg and pf) and whatever other assets that I could get.

Interesting take.

I'm open-minded to shopping Avdija, but usually in these cases, you don't really get much in return shopping a guy in the final year of his rookie deal. You would get a Rui Hachimura type of return: a few late 2nd rounders.

With that the case, I think the better high upside gamble is to keep Avdija and give him one more year to put it together. Unlike many young players, Avdija's primary deficiencies are at least theoretically correctable. He's already got starter-caliber talent in most of the qualities that are typically unimprovable (strength, lateral quickness, defensive awareness, work ethic, unselfishness, court vision). With repetition, he can hopefully learn to shoot the 3-ball and improve his touch around the rim.

I consider Avdija and Kispert to be roughly equal in their effectiveness as NBA players. Kispert has a small advantage in the pure box score metrics like WS/48, BPM and PER. Avdija has the edge in EPM and RAPTOR, which incorporate on/off data that recognize his defensive contributions. The big difference is Deni is 2 full years younger than Kispert. If you think Kispert is worth keeping, then Deni is doubly so.

First, I would be perfectly content with a few second rounders for Deni. Second, maybe I was a little too harsh towards Deni and Davis, but if I were a gm, I would place optimal value on having Deni and Davis if I had a team where Davis and Deni could play ~30 mpg at sg and pf. With Poole and Kuzma making $53 a year for the next 4 years, that’s not the Wizards. Third, as far as I am aware, there is no stat page which shows production by position played, so I can only go on my gut which tells me, kispert is best suited to play sf, and the Wizards will see vast improvement in his production as most if not all his minutes will be at sf this year, where in his first two seasons, he played 35% and 38% at sg, whereas Deni has not looked as good as I would like because 67% of his minutes have been at sf.

[penbeast0]

I wouldn't call Delon Wright a young veteran, maybe Landry Shamet who is 26, but Wright is already 31.