Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[Ruzious]

Bosh and Aldridge? LOL. These comparisons are always ridiculous. "He's like a young vince carter with a better handle". "He's like a more explosive Rondo". "He's like Hakeem with range to the 3pt line".
Why is everyone always compared to all star players? I would poop my pants if Zeller every becomes a 22/9 player like Aldridge or a 24/12 player like Bosh was in Toronto.

Yeah, I don't think people get how ridiculously talented Aldridge is - and he could get better if he focused more on rebounding.

[sfam]

Uh huh. Only we've watched Ernie Grunfield seek his "goals" and execute his "plans/strategy" for a decade now. He's averaged 28-29 wins a season -- how is it possible to be "over critical of" that?

No doubt. I kinda think they should be criticized first and foremost until proven differently. Now if Ted really wants to clean house and get the benefit of doubt, he'll dump EG. Until then, they should pretty much expect criticism and scorn to statements like, "We don't want 3 rookies at the same time." Its a numbers game in the second round. If you got two of them, and dumped the losers (perhaps both of them) after the first year, what's the concern?

[Ruzious]

I want Olynyk to be the pick. I am virtually certain he won't, but I like him more than Zeller or Len, and slightly more than Muscala.

Zeller at three is probably not a bad pick because Cody will thrive in open court playing alongside Wall. LaMarcus Aldridge blocks shots better and is stronger. Pau Gasol in his prime was a far better passer and tougher scoring in traffic . That said, Cody seems capable of becoming like them. He'll at least be a good NBA scoring PF.

Len was wildly inconsistent. Alex had 4 or 5 beast mode games. His games against Duke, Kentucky, and the last couple NIT games were spectacular. Otherwise, Len only got his hands on the ball to take 5 or 6 shots. His rebounding and shot blocking are not great except for when he has an occasional tremendous game. Len is still just 19. He had terrible teammates to overcome. I am concerned most about his feet and his temperament. By far he has the most upside. By far he has the most bust potential.

Muscala is pretty solid player who I like a lot, especially the way he rebounds. He is a gym rat. He's not the athlete Zeller is but he is an old school grinder. He's not able to score in the paint against physical players. He is a safe later pick. Muscala absolutely destroyed competition (even Missouri and Oriakhi) until a miserable NCAA final game against Andrew Stevens and Butler. Muscala is ready to play and might be the best big man in the draft if he goes to the right team.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Cod ... Logs/24152

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Ale ... Logs/26866

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Mik ... Logs/17065

Right now, I like Olynyk's efficiency in the paint. He is truly an inside out threat. He can be a good high post center and is mobile enough to play PF. His best games were in the NCAAs. He is a ready -now player and the type of young guy who is more confident and poised than Vesely or Seraphin. The Wizards need offense from a big and by far he is the most ready to provide that IMO. He can score in transition or in half court. I value his performance a bit more than Zeller's athleticism. Olynyk thinks the game better IMO.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Kel ... mmary/8330


I know he won't be the pick but I like Olynyk.

How do you figure he'll be a good transition scorer? He was second to last of everyone who tested in the 3/4 court sprint.http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... =0&sort=16 The only guy he beat out is some guy I've never heard of.

Why do you and Dat force me to say bad things about the Olynyk Clynyk <copywrite>? If you guys didn't make outrageous claims, I could be nice about the guy - saying he could be a nice pick after Withey and Dieng are gone.

Must be CCJ & Dat groupthinking. That's the only possible explanation, because they're right (= agrees with me) about most things.

...making me an Olynyk Synyc

The only transition he'll be good at is transitioning from a basketball player to a chef at McDonalds.

[stevemcqueen1]

Bosh and Aldridge? LOL. These comparisons are always ridiculous. "He's like a young vince carter with a better handle". "He's like a more explosive Rondo". "He's like Hakeem with range to the 3pt line".
Why is everyone always compared to all star players? I would poop my pants if Zeller every becomes a 22/9 player like Aldridge or a 24/12 player like Bosh was in Toronto.

Yeah, I don't think people get how ridiculously talented Aldridge is - and he could get better if he focused more on rebounding.

You could say the same about Zeller. Although more people have started figuring him out post combine.

[nate33]

I'm with you, Ruzious. I get a bad vibe about Olynyk. Yes, he is very skilled and has done a nice job of maximizing his physical gifts, but I just think his physical gifts will be too limiting at the NBA level. He's a plodder. He has no chance of staying with PF's and he's too small to guard centers. He certainly won't be a shot eraser. I also think he is already at his ceiling. There is very little capacity to improve there.

I do like the Chris Bosh comparison for Zeller. Zeller has a quick first step and likes to create contact. If he can hone that jumpshot with a quick, high release, he's going to be a hard cover when he faces up from 18 feet. Bosh made a living doing that in Toronto.

[hands11]

It's going to be real interesting to see where Noel ends up. My take is that he obviously has outstanding defensive talent and reflexes but until he gets to 235 plus pounds I don't see how he's going to maintain position. Assuming he gets some minutes next year, I think opposing coached are just going to instruct their players to ride him out of the key at every opportunity. He doesn't have much value unless he's positioned in front of the basket.

I wonder how long it will take a person with his build and metabolism to gain 30 pounds?

Pops

Do you really think he is going to play next year. I don't.

[hands11]

I'm with you, Ruzious. I get a bad vibe about Olynyk. Yes, he is very skilled and has done a nice job of maximizing his physical gifts, but I just think his physical gifts will be too limiting at the NBA level. He's a plodder. He has no chance of staying with PF's and he's too small to guard centers. He certainly won't be a shot eraser. I also think he is already at his ceiling. There is very little capacity to improve there.

I do like the Chris Bosh comparison for Zeller. Zeller has a quick first step and likes to create contact. If he can hone that jumpshot with a quick, high release, he's going to be a hard cover when he faces up from 18 feet. Bosh made a living doing that in Toronto.

Adam Morrison ?

[stevemcqueen1]

Zeller has a huge array of below the rim finishes. He has tremendous body control and is better than anyone I've seen in a while at finding the space along the baseline and beneath the basket to get a shot off. Most college bigs can only dunk and shoot simple layups and maybe some rudimentary hook shots. Most can't finish in the way Zeller does, without going up off of both feet, off balance, through contact. Most never try. And most never get to the line or score as much around the basket and as efficiently as Zeller does.

But Zeller has absolutely always been able to play above the rim when he wants to and that's always been apparent if you watched him regularly. I can say this, because I've been pointing out how he plays above the rim for months, long before the combine.

Zeller basically has the athleticism and finishing skills of a guard. I think people see the guard-like finishes and consider it a bad thing, "oh he must not be able to play above the rim." That's missing the point of how special it is to see a 7 footer with the skills and body control to finish like a guard. And they're making an incorrect assumption that he can't get up above the rim.

[verbal8]

Players like McLemore, I might actually keep for a year knowing I would move them later. Kind of like a stock that pays a dividend that also will likely go up in price. I think McLemore and Beal would get along great so I would estimate him having the support group in place to make his NBA transition accelerated. He also would come into a wide open slot where the team has a very clear need which is 2nd guard. The Wizards are very vulnerable to Beal going down.

I think McLemore and Beal are both very good SGs. However playing them together seems to be a bit of a stretch. I think Oladipo might fit a little better because he seems like me he has some flexibility - defensively as a PG and offensively as a SF.

The Draft is going to be here before we know it. Gotta start trimming the list. For me, Bennett and Noel aren't even options to draft and keep.

I think Noel is too much of a talent to pass up. Is very easy to see an elite team built around Wall, Beal and Noel. With the rest of the options, I think it will take one more big addition(some drafting luck or a max level free agent) to reach that level.

[stevemcqueen1]

On Zeller's rebounding, I agree with Ruz that it's not a strength, but not a weakness either.

He's not a physical rebounder or a glass eater. He's not like Richard Howell. He's not going to win a wrestling match for the ball around the basket and he's not going to root players out of the paint with his lower body.

But he gets good results doing his thing and he rebounds in his area well. And he always boxes out. Reminds me of Nene in that way.

And his rebounding numbers are actually good when you factor in his role and his play style. Zeller was a transition scoring option for Indiana who typically did not crash the defensive glass from out in space. Instead he leaked out to trigger the break. And he spent a lot of time going out to the perimeter on defense because he's an excellent PnR defender. He hedges the ball hard and rotates well, it takes him out into space to defend the ball and leaves somebody else to clean the glass.

[montestewart]

And his rebounding numbers are actually good when you factor in his role and his play style. Zeller was a transition scoring option for Indiana who typically did not crash the defensive glass from out in space. Instead he leaked out to trigger the break. And he spent a lot of time going out to the perimeter on defense because he's an excellent PnR defender. He hedges the ball hard and rotates well, it takes him out into space to defend the ball and leaves somebody else to clean the glass.

Thanks, s'mac. That is some very relevant and mitigating analysis re Zeller's allegedly weak rebounding. Any other Hoosier watchers agree? Disagree?

[80sballboy]

The Zeller love is also a little weird. The athleticism grades are all well and good and may suggest something, but how come it was never evident on the court?

I wouldn't say that. He was considered all season long to be one of the top 3 players in college basketball. His only failing was that he and the rest of his team couldn't figure out Syracuse's zone defense.

Couldn't figure it out? He couldn't shoot over 6-9 players with length. How is he going to do against 7-footers in the NBA. I don't care if he has a 70 inch vertical that means nothing in the NBA for bigs. How did it work out for Myron Plumlee? I saw him play about 10 times and thought he was another soft b.w.g. I've seen those same types of players over and over watching college hoops for about 35 years.

[80sballboy]

I'm with you, Ruzious. I get a bad vibe about Olynyk. Yes, he is very skilled and has done a nice job of maximizing his physical gifts, but I just think his physical gifts will be too limiting at the NBA level. He's a plodder. He has no chance of staying with PF's and he's too small to guard centers. He certainly won't be a shot eraser. I also think he is already at his ceiling. There is very little capacity to improve there.

I do like the Chris Bosh comparison for Zeller. Zeller has a quick first step and likes to create contact. If he can hone that jumpshot with a quick, high release, he's going to be a hard cover when he faces up from 18 feet. Bosh made a living doing that in Toronto.

Adam Morrison ?

I think he's a little tougher than Morris and lot less overhyped. He's an ok backup 4 who has some nice offensive skills. I wouldn't use the word "plodding" but not super athletic. I think Len is more like Bosh than Zeller, even though he's still filling out.

[nate33]

Couldn't figure it out? He couldn't shoot over 6-9 players with length. How is he going to do against 7-footers in the NBA. I don't care if he has a 70 inch vertical that means nothing in the NBA for bigs. How did it work out for Myron Plumlee? I saw him play about 10 times and thought he was another soft b.w.g. I've seen those same types of players over and over watching college hoops for about 35 years.

He couldn't shoot when surrounded by three 6-9 players with length as the zone collapsed on him. That's much different than dealing with man-to-man coverage. It's typically easier for scorers to score in the NBA than it is in college. The college game lacks the floor spacing so good players are always double and triple teamed.

Also, let's not act like Zeller made a career out of scoring against undersized players. Syracuse was just one game. Zeller had plenty of good games against big front lines too.

[80sballboy]

Athleticism scores at the combine mean absolutely nothing to me. I don't need to wait for a vertical jump test to see whether or not a player is a superb athlete. It should be clear from watching them actually play basketball (which is what they are drafted to do, NOT partake in "agility drills" or whatever Zeller excelled at).
Nick Young had an amazing vertical, I think over 40 inches. Would you know that from watching him play? Did he attack the rim and try to fly over players for a rebound? Never. Athleticism on the court, which should be evident, is all that matters.

Amen. You have to have some athleticism to exceed but for big men like Zeller and others, it's not that big of a deal. Roy Hibbert has zero athleticism. He's just tough, physical, has good hands and a soft touch. What was his vertical at the combine? Who cares?

People worry about Porter and his lack of explosion and all I say is a smart player who played in a very methodical system at Georgetown that required heady play. Anthony Bennett has some Nick Young in him. So does Shabazz Muhammad. Three athletic wings who'd rather contract a contagious disease than pass the rock.

[nuposse04]

Couldn't figure it out? He couldn't shoot over 6-9 players with length. How is he going to do against 7-footers in the NBA. I don't care if he has a 70 inch vertical that means nothing in the NBA for bigs. How did it work out for Myron Plumlee? I saw him play about 10 times and thought he was another soft b.w.g. I've seen those same types of players over and over watching college hoops for about 35 years.

He couldn't shoot when surrounded by three 6-9 players with length as the zone collapsed on him. That's much different than dealing with man-to-man coverage. It's typically easier for scorers to score in the NBA than it is in college. The college game lacks the floor spacing so good players are always double and triple teamed.

Also, let's not act like Zeller made a career out of scoring against undersized players. Syracuse was just one game. Zeller had plenty of good games against big front lines too.

Outside of Michigan state, how many NBA talent caliber bigmen were in the big 10 this year? This isn't rhetorical, I'm really curious. There were a lot of good teams in the big 10, but I thought the most of them didn't really have anyone who would get serious minutes on a good team. Of Course we can say that about a lot of conferences, but in basketball as opposed to college football, the quality of talent is really spread out among conferences.

[hands11]

It's going to be real interesting to see where Noel ends up. My take is that he obviously has outstanding defensive talent and reflexes but until he gets to 235 plus pounds I don't see how he's going to maintain position. Assuming he gets some minutes next year, I think opposing coached are just going to instruct their players to ride him out of the key at every opportunity. He doesn't have much value unless he's positioned in front of the basket.

I wonder how long it will take a person with his build and metabolism to gain 30 pounds?

According to Noel, he was in the 228 went injured - Calipari said he was 222. I sort of believe that, considering Dr. Andrews wanted Noel to get his weight down for the ACL to recover. If so, Noel probably lost more water weight than anything, and should be able to build it back almost as quickly. If you believe them, the weight issue kind of disapears.

Now if they were lying, whoever drafts Noel will figure it out by February or so.

He was weighted in at 206. If Calipari said he was 222, thats 16 lbs more then he is now. I could see someone dropping in that range but its more likely it was less then that and Calipari is fudging a little. My guess is he was more like something 216 but that is kind of splitting hairs at little.

The more important things to focus on.

Will he play next year ? I don't think he will just like I didn't think D Rose would play this year.
When he does return, what will he weigh ? He isn't going to be big enough to play center. He will probably be even to light to play PF.

And once he does return for the 2015/16 season, now he has to learn to play in the NBA and add offense at PF. That is going to take some time. If it only took one year, that would be amazing. Its more likely to take 3 years from his first NBA season. Your talking 2017/2018.

2013/2014 - Injured entire year
2014/2015 - Plays first year at 220 PF finding out what the NBA is like. No offense.
2015/2016 - Maybe gets up to 225, 230 if he is lucky as he starts to reach his weight limit. Still limited offense.
2017/2018 - This would be his break out year but still not great offensively. Rookie contract running out.

NBA offense for bigs doesn't just grow on a tree if they didn't show they had some to begin with. Its take years.

Thats a hell of a swing for a grand slam before you see if you picked an AS who you now have to right to pay even more in hopes that the glimpses you got was for real deal. Its a Javale McGee pick.

There are better options.
Otto, VO, Zeller, Len, or trade the pick for a vet. All would start producing next season. Hell, I would even take Burke over Noel for the Wizards.

Come 2018, Noel may be way better then any of them. But I'm not waiting that long to find out. Who knows, by them it might look like a brilliant pick. But so could Len, Zeller, etc.

[80sballboy]

Couldn't figure it out? He couldn't shoot over 6-9 players with length. How is he going to do against 7-footers in the NBA. I don't care if he has a 70 inch vertical that means nothing in the NBA for bigs. How did it work out for Myron Plumlee? I saw him play about 10 times and thought he was another soft b.w.g. I've seen those same types of players over and over watching college hoops for about 35 years.

He couldn't shoot when surrounded by three 6-9 players with length as the zone collapsed on him. That's much different than dealing with man-to-man coverage. It's typically easier for scorers to score in the NBA than it is in college. The college game lacks the floor spacing so good players are always double and triple teamed.

Also, let's not act like Zeller made a career out of scoring against undersized players. Syracuse was just one game. Zeller had plenty of good games against big front lines too.

He also had plenty of games where he struggled. I thought when teams got physical against him, like Wisconsin, he struggled when he went 4-of-10 and put up 11 points. I just wasn't impressed with him in the halfcourt game as a low post threat. I also don't know if he has the range (like Olynyk) to be a stretch 4 or face-the-basket 4. He was productive and can run the court. Maybe I'm prejudiced from seeing to many American bigs aside from Kevin Love who aren't physically tough enough to finish inside.

[hands11]

Players like McLemore, I might actually keep for a year knowing I would move them later. Kind of like a stock that pays a dividend that also will likely go up in price. I think McLemore and Beal would get along great so I would estimate him having the support group in place to make his NBA transition accelerated. He also would come into a wide open slot where the team has a very clear need which is 2nd guard. The Wizards are very vulnerable to Beal going down.

I think McLemore and Beal are both very good SGs. However playing them together seems to be a bit of a stretch. I think Oladipo might fit a little better because he seems like me he has some flexibility - defensively as a PG and offensively as a SF.

The Draft is going to be here before we know it. Gotta start trimming the list. For me, Bennett and Noel aren't even options to draft and keep.

I think Noel is too much of a talent to pass up. Is very easy to see an elite team built around Wall, Beal and Noel. With the rest of the options, I think it will take one more big addition(some drafting luck or a max level free agent) to reach that level.

Didn't I say play them together ? The team has two SFs already. I wasn't even arguing he was the best pick, just that I would rather have him then other options and he would be good Beal insurance while producing off the bench until they traded him as an asset.

As for Noel. I get that it can make for a good mental picture that he, Wall and Beal would work out, but it would be a very long time from now before he could be a legit C. And as a PF, you would need a strong center that could score with him. That would make that piece the real legit 3rd piece. Your talking a Nene level player at center. Noel would be like McGee is in Denver.

I would rather draft Len if I wanted a center and I would rather draft Zeller if I wanted a PF.

[Deivy202]

I am falling in love with zeller. If Noel gone than no doubt zeller should be looked at hard. He is basically a white version of potentally chris bosh.

His IQ is very good and can pass the ball around which i believe we need.