Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[The Consiglieri]

There's only a few of us left in the Bennett camp. Such is life. He's still who I hope we get at #3. The Wizards need offensive help up front and Bennett is as elite as this draft comes for that - he's incredibly explosive - far moreso than Zeller, has great handles, can play inside or outside, and seems to have the right instinct on scoring. I think his upside is worth the risk.

This is not to say I have a real issue if Noel, Porter, or even Zeller or Olapido are selected. All of them represent major upgrades to the Wizards' talent level. As long as we keep the pick, we're in a pretty fine place, one that EG should execute well.

Well, we can metaphorically ride one of those motorcycle/side car vehicles to the draft w/a big Bennett Banner behind us, and Three Stooges/Key Stone Cops music playing through a megaphone because I'm right w/you

I'll be happiest if:

we take Noel at #3.

I'll be next happiest if we take:

Bennett at 3

I'll be satisfied if we take Porter at #3.

I'll be intrigued if we take Len w/Porter and Noel already off the board, but also worried.

That's pretty much my scenario. Nothing else is of interest in me, unless we can add 2 lotto picks for moving down with Noel, and Bennett off the board (which isn't going to happen).

[hands11]

Some clips of the workout.
http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... /index.jsp

Interview:
http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... ec17ed0000

Yikes

[hands11]

sfam I think we just have different ideas of what the team needs.

I think we're a better team with a 13 and 10 guy who plays good defense like Nene than we are with a 20 and 8 PF who is below average defensively.

In todays perimeter oriented league I have a hard time imagining a team not being very successful with great two way players at the 1, 2, and 3. Getting Porter gives us that for the next 8 years or so.

And again, you can get decent defensive bigs in the draft next year because most defensive bigs are projects taken mid 1st.

Exactly.

I would rather go after a player like VO over Bennett.

In my book, I always preferred a team build around two way plays and key to one of those two ways is strong D. From there, its a sliding scale. A little more offense and you can be a little worse at defense. But I would rather have a 7 defense 3 offense over a 7 offense 3 defense. Both could be considered bench players but in the NBA, you only need two players at Wall and Beal level. From there, you can surround them with good defenders and players that simply score from their spot. A 3 specialist, a offensive rebounder garbage player, etc.

[hands11]

I think Porter played at 205 last year at G-town, I'd like to know where he's at right now. At the very least he recognizes it as an issue. I think 225-232 should be his target over the next two seasons.

Trevor A is listed at 210

Porter doesn't have to be 225 to play SF if he is that tall.

[The Consiglieri]

You can't talk about Zeller's Syracuse game without mentioning that the team went 3/15 from 3 and Yogi Ferrell and Jordan Hulls didn't make a single shot. Syracuse geared their entire defense to stopping Zeller and he had to do it all and against doubles and triples with no space. He didn't play well, but I doubt anyone in the country could have under the circumstances. I'd speculate that Zeller saw more double and triple teams this year than anyone in the country outside the kid from Creighton.

It was as wrong and as much of an overreaction to pan Zeller off that game as it was to pan Harden for his tourney games. It was also flat out wrong to deny his athleticism, it was obvious to me from watching his games, and the people who are still denying it now are still shoveling the same pile of horse poo they were before the combine test results proved them unequivocally wrong. If Zeller were not a White American player, it would have been immediately taken for granted he was an excellent athlete.

I'm glad people are coming around on him.

I didn't lose interest in him because of Syracuse, I'd lost interest in him by the back end of January when his value had dropped to the bottom of the top 10. Didn't improve in any substantial way on his freshman year, and has serious liabilities in numerous aspects of his game. Looks like a guy w/a low ceiling to me, and at best, a league average player. Has a place in the league, but definitely not a starring, or "robin" role. Not worthy of the slot. The Syracuse game was the cherry on top, dueling with a defensively minded team, notorious for challenging elite players a great deal. He failed the test, but that wasn't the first time he'd disappointed scouts during the year. He'd been doing that for months.

He's no bust. I think he should be pretty solid, I just think he has a relatively low ceiling, and a moderately low floor. I wouldn't touch him w/o a substantial trade down.

[Upper Decker]

Bulletsforever posted a video of Porters workout. Standard stuff (makes every jumper, unimpeded path to the hoop, etc.). On one play, Porter caught the ball under the hoop and laid it off the glass. It shouldn't be a big deal, but he never dunks the ball (just watch the draft express scouting video). In the NBA if you catch the ball down low and try to lay it up you're getting blocked. Who watched the game last night? Mike freakin Miller swatted a shot because Leonard tried to lay it up. If he doesn't strengthen up and learn to power through for dunks he's going to be relegated to a spot up shooter.

[nuposse04]

I think Porter played at 205 last year at G-town, I'd like to know where he's at right now. At the very least he recognizes it as an issue. I think 225-232 should be his target over the next two seasons.

Trevor A is listed at 210

Porter doesn't have to be 225 to play SF if he is that tall.

I don't expect a massive weight gain this season. I do expect him to get back to 205 or so...But I think he's best suited either hitting 3s or utilizing his post game. Since his game isn't predicated on athleticism I think it would be wise for him to add some considerably upper body strength.

BTW, I had to look up Ariza's metrics...I had no idea he had an 8'11.5 standing reach O_o I knew his arms were long...but dayum.

[nuposse04]

Bulletsforever posted a video of Porters workout. Standard stuff (makes every jumper, unimpeded path to the hoop, etc.). On one play, Porter caught the ball under the hoop and laid it off the glass. It shouldn't be a big deal, but he never dunks the ball (just watch the draft express scouting video). In the NBA if you catch the ball down low and try to lay it up you're getting blocked. Who watched the game last night? Mike freakin Miller swatted a shot because Leonard tried to lay it up. If he doesn't strengthen up and learn to power through for dunks he's going to be relegated to a spot up shooter.

Mike Miller also went trough Leonards head on that play

I agree though he needs to work on strength. He doesn't necessarily need to be applying posters everywhere, just needs to play through contact. Which you might be able to say of all the top prospects in this draft sans Bennett.

[Nivek]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

[tontoz]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

As usual draft picks are overrated this time of year.

[deneem4]

I see butler and shumpert as the 2 closest nba players actually...theyre both young and top elite defenders...as 2nd yr players theyre the only ones can impact lebrom while guarding him...if deng was out for the season like rose I think jimmy couldve had a paul george type season...ssme with shumpert if carmelo was out...butler ability to put the ball on the floor nd get to the line is incredible for a 2nd yr player...shumpert can create his own shot and drive effectively...

WTF. Why are you judging him by the standards of players who have already been in the NBA for a few seasons. Iman is a full 3 seasons older than him. Jimmy is nearly 4 years older as well. Also, Shumpert can't do anything against LBJ, there are probably only a few people in the NBA that can give him trouble...Those would be P. George, Butler, and Leonard. Shumpert definitely isn't one of them. Also, Butler averages 3.9 fta a game...Shumpert 1.7...and those are both per 36 numbers..Those aren't exactly all star type FT draws. Neither of them are particularly good in Iso situations, they're mainly catch and shoot guys. They can do some slashing but if you ask either of them to ISO, you're probably playing losing basketball.

Offensively theyre both weapoms as well
Both shot 40% fgs and jimmy shot 40% from 3 with 13pts 5 rebs while shumpert shot 43% 10pts 6 rebs in the playoffs

It isn't a good thing if your FG% is 40%. Oh and Jimmy's line was 8.6-4.1.4 this year and solid efficiency. Shumpert was 6.8-4-1.7 on bad efficiency (unless you use him only to shoot 3 pts). Jimmy might be a solid per 36 player in the future but definitely not Shumpert. Shumper IMO still has to prove himself before you can use per 35 extrapolations, Jimmy not as much.

Shumpert 6'6/6'9 wingspan 220 42in vert
Butler 6'8/6'8 wingspan 220 40in vert
Porter 6'8/7'1 wingspan 200 36iinvert

Max vert means nothing really. Standing vertical is a better indicator of explosiveness. Wingspan also means very little compared to standing reach, of which Porter has em all beat. Although he doesn't have the standing vertical of either of them but his standing reach makes up for it IMO.

Porter athleticism worries me, and hes not that strong...he wont be able to guard the elite sf in the nba...I think his ceiling could be they play off level on a wizards team...
14/6 40%
But the irony is they were both low 1st rd picks...

He's an OK athlete, no one is propping him up to be like Rudy gay or anything. His strength is an issue, but most guys come into the NBA not quite filled out. He just turned 20, he still has 2-3 years to add on good weight. So long as he adds 20 lbs, he'll be fine. As far as extrapolating his average...well I won't yet but I think I have a higher opinion of him then u, that's all I'll say.

Theyre the type of player we need...especially next to wall...il rther focus that 3rd pick on a pick and pop option like zeller, even though I think we should stay far away from big men in the draft, nonody likes the idea of the ersan trade.

Who is they? Zeller is an ok player...but you can trade down and acquire assets to get him. I don't see Zeller being a better player the Porter. I think they can get close...but I see Porter as a legit starter and borderline all star player. I see Zeller as the 2nd coming of Ersan. Not a bad player...but number 3 worthy.

If we had to get a pick il take victor...he'll be an undersized 4 but with nene and okafor downlown and alot of teams playing small ball, we can survive...

Wait...what...Victor? Oladipo? You think he can be an undersized 4? Hell its debatable he's an undersized 2 (although his standing reach makes up for it ) You're absolutely insane in thinking he could ever be an undersized 4.

This is a weak draft picking the safest player makes the decision even more weak...

Welp, never thought I'd see the day that I'm glad EG is making the pic as oppose to someone else.

I meant 3 for oladipo...I cleary stated playoff stats considering shumpert jus came off an acl injury and butler been playing behind deng...shumpert can put some d on lebron...mayne not the best but he can be irritating...if no lebron he can definitely hold his oqn with wade...

Butler is a future all star...if rose is mike butlee is pippen...not deng...butler may mot be s experienced as deng but he will be better after playing with rose

I used them because this is essentially the type of player you wnt porter to be...an elite defender tht can do everything else you pretty much need him too...

They both jus came off their 2nd yr nd im pretty sure most ppl would trade tht third pick for either one of them...

Olapido is the allstar player in this draft, shabazz nd maybe zeller as well (our prospects wise) id porter not going to be an efficient rudy gay or even the next rudy gay...why draft him
Olapido might be the next wade, he's a fearless type of player, shabazz looks like a smaller rudy, il take him before porter...

We were the #8 defensive team with wall gone half the season nene missing half ariza missing a 3rd and playing with a dleague backcourt

We need players like shumpert or butler....who can lead the bench offensively as well as be quality starter with wall...and we sorta have that with webster, whos young enough and actually likes playing for the wizards

We dont need a shawn marion or tyshaun prince....we neeed a bosh or a boozer or a garnett or a love or a Randolph or a ersan...

If u think porter can be a klay or parsons...then thats acceptable but I dont even see tht

And il rather compare with younger players...competition is the same

[Dat2U]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

As usual draft picks are overrated this time of year.

Nonsense, ask the Spurs if draft picks are overrated.

[LyricalRico]

Not sure if anyone already posted this, but here's DX's video breakdown of Bennett:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Ant ... Video-4260

The acknowledge the lack of effort on D, but show that he has the tools to defend. To my eye he definitely has a tweener look, but the offensive skill are pretty impressive.

Edit to add: The defensive weaknesses despite the athleticism sort of remind me of McGee. Not good. Also don't like that he can fall in love with the jumper.

[Nivek]

Yeah, I agree with dat, despite my last post. That was just to communicate that there are worse things than getting an average player at #3. But draft picks are extremely valuable when used well. Denver, for example, has at least a couple top 5 worthy picks starting for them who they selected in the 20s (Faried and Lawson). The Spurs consistently draft well, which I think is testament to their talent evaluation process moreso than their player development.

I think it's more accurate to say that many prospects get overrated (and underrated). More get overrated than under, I think.

[nuposse04]

I meant 3 for oladipo...I cleary stated playoff stats considering shumpert jus came off an acl injury and butler been playing behind deng...shumpert can put some d on lebron...mayne not the best but he can be irritating...if no lebron he can definitely hold his oqn with wade...

Oladipo will never be a "good" 3, he's a 2 and I don't ever see him being successful at the 3. At least full time anyways. Shumpert cannot do much against LBJ, he's decent against 2s like Wade.

Butler is a future all star...if rose is mike butlee is pippen...not deng...butler may mot be s experienced as deng but he will be better after playing with rose

On a healthy team, Butler is a smaller version of Deng sans the play-making and superior rebounding but with better 3 pt shooting. Typical 3-D. Not a bad player but I'm not going to anoint him with more than he is. I'd love to have him on my roster but he'd probably be a 9-13 pick in this draft IMO.

I used them because this is essentially the type of player you wnt porter to be...an elite defender tht can do everything else you pretty much need him too...

No, I expect more than that from Porter. I see Butler as a floor for Porter. Truthfully I do think Porter will be AT LEAST as good as Batum. Butler and Shumpert are limited players. Good, but limited.

They both jus came off their 2nd yr nd im pretty sure most ppl would trade tht third pick for either one of them...

...Right...Keep tellin that to yourself pal.

Olapido is the allstar player in this draft, shabazz nd maybe zeller as well (our prospects wise) id porter not going to be an efficient rudy gay or even the next rudy gay...why n draft him

I think Dipo can make an allstar appearance as well...but more so by default seeing as how most the young SGs are lacking with exception for a few. He can also bust hard considering his draft stock. But at the very least he seems like he can be an excellent 3rd/4th option. I don't think he'll ever be franchise caliber. Shabazz is going to fall, and he has a chance to pay dividends considering how far he probably will fall. I don't think he'll be a perennial all star player...but truthfully I'm kind of rooting for him since he's an under dog at this point. I think people want him to fail to validate their analysis of him.

Zeller would have to add some strength and quite a bit of post play IMO to become an all star caliber player. His shooting form does lead me to think he can become a good stretch 4...but outside of Bosh...I can't think of good PFs who are all star worthy without having some semblance of a post game or doing something else (superior rebounding or defending). I think Zeller can be a great pick and pop player...but his only utility early on, on defense will be in PnR D. I rag on zeller a lot but with him working on an outside jumpshot I have to admit to myself he has a higher ceiling than I originally thought, but I honestly think it will be more difficult for him to each. He has some physical hurdles to overcome. Say with a guy like Len, I think his problem is more cerebral then Physical...so does it become easier for him to reach his ceiling then Zeller?

What would most people take a chance on, a player that some physical changes he needs to make his style of play in order to reach or a player that just needs to put it together mentally?

In a vacuum I'd take the player who just needs to overcome mental hurdles...but I also realize this is the WIZARDS developmental staff...its like we almost HAVE to draft guys who have their heads right cause lord know we can't develop players who have cerebral issues.

[sfam]

There's only a few of us left in the Bennett camp. Such is life. He's still who I hope we get at #3. The Wizards need offensive help up front and Bennett is as elite as this draft comes for that - he's incredibly explosive - far moreso than Zeller, has great handles, can play inside or outside, and seems to have the right instinct on scoring. I think his upside is worth the risk.

This is not to say I have a real issue if Noel, Porter, or even Zeller or Olapido are selected. All of them represent major upgrades to the Wizards' talent level. As long as we keep the pick, we're in a pretty fine place, one that EG should execute well.

Well, we can metaphorically ride one of those motorcycle/side car vehicles to the draft w/a big Bennett Banner behind us, and Three Stooges/Key Stone Cops music playing through a megaphone because I'm right w/you

I'll be happiest if:

we take Noel at #3.

I'll be next happiest if we take:

Bennett at 3

I'll be satisfied if we take Porter at #3.

I'll be intrigued if we take Len w/Porter and Noel already off the board, but also worried.

That's pretty much my scenario. Nothing else is of interest in me, unless we can add 2 lotto picks for moving down with Noel, and Bennett off the board (which isn't going to happen).

I'm right there with you with the exception of Len. His ankles scare me.

[sfam]

sfam I think we just have different ideas of what the team needs.

I think we're a better team with a 13 and 10 guy who plays good defense like Nene than we are with a 20 and 8 PF who is below average defensively.

In todays perimeter oriented league I have a hard time imagining a team not being very successful with great two way players at the 1, 2, and 3. Getting Porter gives us that for the next 8 years or so.

And again, you can get decent defensive bigs in the draft next year because most defensive bigs are projects taken mid 1st.

Exactly.

I would rather go after a player like VO over Bennett.

In my book, I always preferred a team build around two way plays and key to one of those two ways is strong D. From there, its a sliding scale. A little more offense and you can be a little worse at defense. But I would rather have a 7 defense 3 offense over a 7 offense 3 defense. Both could be considered bench players but in the NBA, you only need two players at Wall and Beal level. From there, you can surround them with good defenders and players that simply score from their spot. A 3 specialist, a offensive rebounder garbage player, etc.

This is where we disagree. I think you need at least 3 players at the Wall/Beal level, and I'm willing to take the risk that an elite offensive player will be good enough on D to make it worth it.

[sfam]

Just be clear, while I think Bennett is the right pick for us at the #3 slot, I'm far more interested in EG's philosophy. I want him to do his best to identify the most impactful player available, meaning the one he thinks has the best chance to be an all-star level talent. If that's Porter, fine. Same with Olapido, Noel or whomever. I don't want him to simply play it safe. We just aren't winning championships playing it safe. I don't see us finding a Ginobli level talent with a mid to late pick next year. Unless we have major injuries, this is it, folks. Lets go for Gold with this pick. I'm not interested in playing for Bronze. Lets go for Gold even if it increases our chances of bombing out.

[deneem4]

@nuposse04

thats what im saying..our development staff suck...and outside of those players and bennet who I forgot to mention, most of our other prospects going to need some work...

Porter would be a good glue guy for okc or the bulls or spurs...a team that can really coach his advantages and build upon his disadvantages...the wizards csnt do that...if we could seraphin would average 18ppg ( he has the skills)...vesley would be (best case/bulls) andrea kirlenko and chris singleton would be rhe lakers trevor ariza...but instead...all a bunch of d league players...

Not saying porters going to end up that way, but with the wizards development staff..I domt see him being tht player we want...wall cant develop 2 rookie wings at the same time...(yes he had a strong influence on beal turnaround)

I see 3 optioms

Trade down for stretch 4 (1..ersan/2..d williams) and draft shabazz
Draft oladipo or bennet
Go crazy trade everyone cept beal wall and webster and create a whole new team,

[WizarDynasty]

I see Bennett has having a paul millsap defensive game. Bennett was a post player before he hones his perimeter skills which is why we see the thunder tree trunk legs.
8'9 standing reach isn't great but those massive shoulders and trunk are going to carve out alot of space in the paint for offensivel go defensive rebounds. He isn't going to be a shot blocker but he isn't going to get punked to much in the post. Also he is only a freshman and is still growing. 7'2 wingspan usually meanshe is probably going to grow to at least 6'8 without shoes. Usually there is a 6 inch differential in wingspan versus height in even the most extreme cases.
He definitely has work to do on the defensive end as far as schemes go, but this is a hardworking individual that ranks in the 99th percentile as far as skills go. You have to remember that coaching in the nba doesn't teach skills. they teach basketball strategy, not skills.
We know that wizards are awful at developing skills. Bringing in Bennett who is already fully developed skill wise should be plan B if Adams is drafted number one by Cleveland to replace the injured Varejao. I think Bennett will pick up are defensive schemes pretty quickly when he doesn't have to start off be the focal point on offense and can just focus on his role.
Bennett and Wall are going to get to the free throw line alot. wall is our only player right now that consistently finish in the hole. If we don't get someone to take the punishment off of wall, he is going to break down really really soon ala gilbert arenas and baron davis. We need to perserve wall as much as possible, not cash in his health in his early years banging into 280 lb centers and getting knocked to floor multiple times per game. Let Bennett do that, he is built for it. We need someone who can do damage in the paint, even when its packed.
so adams is my first pick because great mid range jumper, and he cleans the boards and protects the rim, anpd is an enforcer. Bennett if Adams is gone to cleveland. Orlando is going to grab a guard so don't really have to worry about them.
again porter got great basketball iq. He isn't above average in anything though. He doesn't have elite length like kevin garnett to get his shot off, and he doesn't have explosive first step to burst by his opponent and force the defense to collapse, he doesn't have a track record of challenging bigmen and finishing. He is great to add to the culture of the team but you add these type of players in the late 1st round after you stuck in 20's from exiting the first round after 3 seasons.
High IQ players can be found in free agency, you aren't going to find players who can take over the 4th quarter in free agency and carry a team during crunch time by physically dominating their opponent when the special moment comes in a game. we all know that point in the game when the scores is tied with 3 minutes and we are waiting for superman to turn on his powers. We don't have that player yet but bennett has it. Porter doesn't. you aren't going to back door a team with 3 minutes left for an unimpeded layup to the rim. You are going to have beat your man and then power through a center waiting for in the paint and still score because the refs chooses not to call a foul. Zeller isn't going to do it. Len isn't going to do it. porter isn't going to do. Noel isn't going to do. Bennett yes. McElmore and VO-- if he improves his handles and footspeed possibly. Adams I can see using his body, creating contact, and scoring. So yes. You need a player that is comfortable creating contact and still scoring as our lottery pick. You need to be a dominant athlete at your position first and foremost...and then we move on to my pyramid in my signature..