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Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#181 » by rockymac52 » Wed Sep 4, 2013 3:18 pm

DCZards wrote:
Nivek wrote:

He needs to get better, though. And, his "make the offense better" ability has been inconsistent. His teams have been slightly better on offense when he's been on the bench (by 1.3 points per 100 possessions). Last season, his offensive on/off works out zero -- OKC was worse offensively when he was in the game and POR was better.


Nivek, when you say that OKC was "worse offensively" when Maynor was in the game are you comparing Maynor being in the game (playing mostly with backups) instead of Westbrook? If so, a stat like that doesn't say a whole lot about Maynor's performance since you would expect OKC to be worse offensively with Westbrook, one of the best PGs in the NBA, out of the game.


Very good point. That's one of the main problems with +/- stats. They change depending on who the other player at your position is on that particular team. To be fair, although Maynor wasn't as good as Westbrook (shocker), the Thunder still posted a very respectable 110 Offensive Rating when Maynor was in the game (sometimes with Durant, sometimes not).
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#182 » by Nivek » Wed Sep 4, 2013 3:21 pm

DCZards wrote:
Nivek wrote:

He needs to get better, though. And, his "make the offense better" ability has been inconsistent. His teams have been slightly better on offense when he's been on the bench (by 1.3 points per 100 possessions). Last season, his offensive on/off works out zero -- OKC was worse offensively when he was in the game and POR was better.


Nivek, when you say that OKC was "worse offensively" when Maynor was in the game are you comparing Maynor being in the game (playing mostly with backups) instead of Westbrook? If so, a stat like that doesn't say a whole lot about Maynor's performance since you would expect OKC to be worse offensively with Westbrook, one of the best PGs in the NBA, out of the game.


Doc's point was about Maynor making the team better offensively in a manner that exceeds his personal statistical production. If Maynor is making his team better offensively, it has to show up in on/off numbers.

That said, the real point I was making is that the data would suggest his effect on his teams' offense has been inconsistent. We're talking about just 391 minutes at OKC last season, and just 571 with Portland. Not enough to say anything definitive using on/off data. The pattern from last season is similar to what it's been throughout his career -- inconsistent results. For his career, his teams have been a bit above average on offense when he's been in the game, but they've been even better than that when he's not been in the game. (Which really isn't a criticism of Maynor particularly -- he's been a backup behind some good players.)

But, when combining Maynor's offensive game with on/off results for his full career (3569 minutes), it doesn't look like he's causing his team to be better on offense. Rather, the data suggests he's along for the ride. Or, to put it more kindly, he's not hurting his team much on offense.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#183 » by barelyawake » Wed Sep 4, 2013 4:20 pm

I'm on my phone, so I'll just grab quotes and respond as much as I can...

"Uh huh. Whom do you have in mind? We won 29 games last season, 20 the (shortened) season before that. 23 the previous year. 26 (off top of head) one more year back. About the same the way long long ago yet previous season."

Unfortunately, my tenure here (and before here with many from here on the ESPN boards) extends longer than three years (I often think that unfortunately needs a few verys to modify it). And this argument extends the breadth of that time. Admittedly, stats have gotten better during that time. But, to re-litigate every instance where people used stats to say a player was either useless or past his point of being effective, who then miraculously did "better than expected" indeed would fill a book (even if that book merely focused on ex-Wizards players). For instance, I find it funny that many arguing to keep Price were the same arguing against his acquisition (and using stats to do so). Ditto Okafor. Ditto Ariza. Ditto Antonio Daniels. I have a long memory, so I could ditto on. And that's just Wizards.

The number of times I've heard that stats indicate that so and so player is done, who then went on to put in four good seasons on championship or playoff teams, would fill volumes. Stats show what happened in the past. They are a decent predictor of the future, but they are not the hand of fate itself. And when mining any cloud of information, it takes asking the right questions. Questions that may not be apparent to ask without info not in the box score itself. And even Kevin will admit that.

If a player (who is a human btw, not a collection of data points) had a bad season because he was struggling with a sick child at home, show me where I find that cause in the box score? If a player has a learning disability, but thrives when given a more simplistic role, where am I to glean that only looking at stats? Or that a player often makes plays when the team mentally is in a funk (thus helps propel wins by diving to the floor for a loose ball or making the hard foul to disrupt to flow of the opposing team) is that readily apparent when looking at a player's career numbers? What if he only started doing that after he matured mentally?

Sure, it can be found hidden in the numbers (sorta), but only if you are first looking for it. Same for every human condition from injury to infighting to miscoaching (©) to mental changes. But not just that, also player development is not so easily predicted using stats. And stats also have holes that need to be corrected for. Some statistical measurings favor offense over defense. To say stats show everything is a) false and b) like saying the library of congress holds every imaginable sentence humans can utter. Sure, but which one are you looking for?

"You commented on Harrington; I commented back. You don't like that? Too bad."
I didn't "not like it." I'm a dick, so I responded how a prick would.

"People like Harrington because he scores a lot of points. That's all he does."
Untrue. And I think if you look at his development through his career, by turning away from the numbers for a second and reading stories written about him over the years, you'll see that is not true. There is a reason why I say, as a back-up, his defense is better than advertised. Please read the articles explaining why he almost won sixth man of the year twice.

"I'm glad you think he's 'tough,' only I don't even know what you mean."
I mean hard fouls when you need hard fouls. Did you do the google search? I mean not shying away from pressure. I mean prodding those around him to excel. I mean playing through pain and/or adversity. I mean getting upset about losing. I mean the difference between Charles Oakley or Birdman and Amare (mentally).

"Talk about cherry-picking! And you are even cherry picking 'almosts!'"
I am "cherry-picking" the last season he was healthy, when the majority of sportswriters were predicting halfway through the season that he would be the sixth man of the year (only the team's record held him back). He was voted the best back-up PF that year (when looking at the sixth man voting). If you think that's insignificant, I would argue more sternly that you should not.

"Oh. And here I thought he was described as 'a stretch 4.' Actually, he's a version of Nene. Tell me, do his numbers on his career look like Nene's numbers? I mean anything whatever like Nene's."
You miss the point of the analogy. Perhaps that is my fault. I thought I was clear. Unlike Wall, whom we iso, Nene gets many of his points within the flow of the offense. And within the flow of the offense, there are options. Crawford was often asked, or took it upon himself, to score outside of the flow of the offense. Here's the ball. Make something. That something was often highly inefficient.

However, within the flow of the offense (and people like Maynor, Webster, Beal, Wall, Porter and Nene who can pass), we need only dish to Harrington when he is open. He doesn't have to create his offense (though it is beneficial that he can when he sees an opening). He can be spoon-fed it, and get his other points off put backs etc (within the flow of the game, versus against the flow -- one on five, hero ball).

"I'm sure you will. Only thing is I didn't include last season, or seasons when he was injured. And never, in his entire career, has he ever averaged as much as 9 boards every 40 minutes or as many as 3 offensive boards per 40 minutes. And usually, year over year, he was well below that. Way below. In 14 seasons. Man that's a lot of coaches to blame."
The claim was "he can't rebound." That is not the case. It is a tremendous exaggeration to claim he can't rebound. He is an inconsistent rebounder. True. But, he can and does rebound. And our need to have him rebound will be much less important when we have four guys 6'8 or taller on the court.

"Maynor and Harrington....and Porter and Rice. And Webster since he'll likely play lots of SG this year unless Ariza is traded."
And one. Exactly. Our bench will be leagues better mostly because of what we have seen up to this point. We can actually have an offense with Wall off the court. That's because:

Porter, Maynor and Webster can make smart passes. We have added shooters. Our youth will show development. We have more cogs that make the engine run. We aren't reliant on Crawford making something out of nothing. We have options.

And that's all I can manage today...
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#184 » by BarnabyJones » Wed Sep 4, 2013 5:35 pm

dckingsfan, put me down for 43 wins as well.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#185 » by dckingsfan » Wed Sep 4, 2013 6:56 pm

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
53 - Chocolate City Jordanaire
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM, barelyawake
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, Upper Decker, FreeBalling, BarnabyJones
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax, pineappleheadindc
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice :)
38 - Ruzious, Dat2U
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

Offensive Rating

106 - TwentyOne920
105 - FreeBalling
101 - DCKingsFan

Defensive Rating

104 - TwentyOne920
102 - DCKingsFan has
101 - FreeBalling
86 - hands11

Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Yes - Higga, stevemcqueen1, dangermouse
No - DCKingsfan
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#186 » by dckingsfan » Wed Sep 4, 2013 6:56 pm

Wow - I guess I am a Wall hater :)
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#187 » by LyricalRico » Wed Sep 4, 2013 11:28 pm

barelyawake wrote:However, within the flow of the offense (and people like Maynor, Webster, Beal, Wall, Porter and Nene who can pass), we need only dish to Harrington when he is open. He doesn't have to create his offense (though it is beneficial that he can when he sees an opening). He can be spoon-fed it, and get his other points off put backs etc (within the flow of the game, versus against the flow -- one on five, hero ball).


This.

:nod:
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#188 » by Nivek » Thu Sep 5, 2013 12:34 am

I'm mostly okay with BA's thoughts about giving Harrington the ball basically only when he's open. But Harrington is a poor "creator." The Wizards shouldn't want him doing much on offense other than shoot when open. And, given his anemic offensive rebounding, the only way he's scoring on putbacks is if one his teammates gets the ball for him.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#189 » by doclinkin » Thu Sep 5, 2013 3:55 am

Nivek wrote:They weren't "about even" and Price wasn't the better "bargain." Price was better last season. In fact, Price was better last season than Maynor has ever been as a pro.

On head-to-head matchups, we're talking only 3 games and 56 minutes for Price and 59 minutes for Maynor. When you say Maynor's stats were "better" in head-to-head matchups (all three of them), I'm guessing you're focusing mostly on assists. And maybe rebounds.

That said, Maynor may could end up helping on offense and not hurting a lot on defense. He needs to get better, though. And, his "make the offense better" ability has been inconsistent. His teams have been slightly better on offense when he's been on the bench (by 1.3 points per 100 possessions). Last season, his offensive on/off works out zero -- OKC was worse offensively when he was in the game and POR was better.



Shoot, Price was better last season than Price has ever been as a pro. Eh, okay in limited minutes as a rook maybe he was about equal. But the two prior seasons to this one he was about the same butt as Maynor has been, without quite the same injury excuse.

Head to head, yeah but Maynor's squad won two out of three! :clown: But right, with the caveat of limited sample size, Maynor lost the first match-up (badly) and won the next two. The stats weigh all games equally, but I don't have to because I have superior powers of observation and my opinion transcends all stats including wins and losses, don'tcha know?

But rather than average all together, when looking for reasons to hope, well then we're talking upper end potential. So briefly consider the best game of each in this match-up. Which player would you prefer as your PG:

Player EM: scoring 15 pts, 11 assists, 2 steals, 4 boards
-versus-
Player AJP: tallying 23 pts and 3 assists, 2 steals, no boards.

? Both on efficient scoring. Me, taking the absurd and running with it (3 game sample, properly cherry picked) I'll take the double double. Pretty sure most coaches would too.

But yeah, in this comparison I was talking offense, and I'm looking at distribution, as a pass-first PG, in a facilitator role, since I submit that's what this team needs more of (Maynor) than ball-pressure defense and careful possession management (Price).

Look, better or not we saw how inept offensively this team was with AJ Price in a lead PG role. His shooting is more efficient, in part because he won't force the action-- but it leads to a stopped ball and empty possession even if his personal eFG% doesn't suffer. Maynor takes more risks in passing, forcing the action, (earning TOs and scorn from statheads, that register this as a lost possession where an expired 24 second clock, or a last second pass leading to a forced heave does not show as easily in the box score stats) but in this uptempo offense it's a better approximation of the role John Wall plays, and does not force a radical tempo change bringing him in the game.

Recall, I follow UConn. I know AJ Price's game since he was boosting laptops. He's a careful half-court chess player, not a jazz conductor in a smoky room leading a tight quintet.

But again ultimately if we're talking bench regarding our record, I'm saying the _hope_ is we're comparing John Wall vs AJ Price in that lead trumpet role, and Maynor need only be compared with Shorn ACLs Livingston, the Shelved Mack, the Generic Pargo and all.

And if not, if Maynor is our starting PG for half the year, well then, Ender Wiggin et al here we come!
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#190 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Sep 5, 2013 12:40 pm

The main reason for my ridiculously optimistic prediction is that Price and many others had bounce back seasons. Okafor, Ariza, Temple, and especially Webster each had resurgent seasons. John Wall flipped the switch. Bradley Beal got better even before Wall flipped the switch. Washington seems to have become an oasis in a desert as a place for players to jump start their careers.

I expect Maynor and Harrington will be glad they chose the Wizards.

I also expect Otto Porter will come to training camp stronger than he was in summer league.

Vesely might still be a bust but I suspect he's going to be twice as good as he was last season. I KNOW if Seraphin plays at all he's going to be better than last season.

Nene's going to be healthier than last season. I think the guy is going to be very healthy.

Ariza and Okafor are in contract seasons.

John Wall is going to get superstar respect from officials.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... 13/splits/

For three months in 2013 the Wizards played slightly over .500 basketball. From January through March, Washington was 23-22. Then, IMO they did some real good sand bagging. This season, IMO they'll be way over .500. If they play .600 that's 49 wins. To me that is a very reasonable prediction. Mine (53) is over-the-top optimistic.

I think their continuity is going to serve them well. I think Beal is going to be the key to the team's improvement. I think he's going to be an all star by his third or fourth season. I would put decent money on Wall becoming an all star THIS season.

I think the team is not going to be a little better. I think they'll be a LOT better. Thus, my ridiculously optimistic prediction.

It's really not far-fetched at all if Wall, Nene, and Beal stay healthy.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#191 » by doclinkin » Thu Sep 5, 2013 1:54 pm

Counterweighting the optimism, as far as health is concerned both John Wall and Bradley Beal have to pick themselves off the floor on 57% of their possessions according to the D.R.E assay.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#192 » by LyricalRico » Thu Sep 5, 2013 2:38 pm

doclinkin wrote:Look, better or not we saw how inept offensively this team was with AJ Price in a lead PG role. His shooting is more efficient, in part because he won't force the action-- but it leads to a stopped ball and empty possession even if his personal eFG% doesn't suffer. Maynor takes more risks in passing, forcing the action, (earning TOs and scorn from statheads, that register this as a lost possession where an expired 24 second clock, or a last second pass leading to a forced heave does not show as easily in the box score stats) but in this uptempo offense it's a better approximation of the role John Wall plays, and does not force a radical tempo change bringing him in the game.


Wow, great point. Totally agree with this. I hated the way the offense looked when Price was in the game.

Having a willing passer like Maynor and a willing outside shooter like Harrington could really open things up even when Wall isn't in the game. Of course the passes still have to be good and the shots still have to go in, but at least now the potential is there.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#193 » by dobrojim » Thu Sep 5, 2013 3:19 pm

before I make any predictions, I would really like to get the low-down
on how Nene's feet/etc are as well as how Beal is doing.

I've not seen any news on either of these things.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#194 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 5, 2013 4:19 pm

dobrojim wrote:before I make any predictions, I would really like to get the low-down
on how Nene's feet/etc are as well as how Beal is doing.

I've not seen any news on either of these things.


To me, no news is good news. If there was a setback for either Nene or Beal - I think we would have heard about it (yep, just a guess). I also want to know how Booker's health is coming along (as well as his jumpshot).
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#195 » by barelyawake » Thu Sep 5, 2013 4:50 pm

Nivek wrote:I'm mostly okay with BA's thoughts about giving Harrington the ball basically only when he's open. But Harrington is a poor "creator." The Wizards shouldn't want him doing much on offense other than shoot when open. And, given his anemic offensive rebounding, the only way he's scoring on putbacks is if one his teammates gets the ball for him.


We are talking about a back-up. So, when I say putbacks, I mean one a game. When I said "etc," I meant a list of non-iso scoring methods that I was too lazy to write. I could have as easily said "fast breaks etc." And in terms of "creation" I merely meant he has the handles and (if healthy) quickness to put the ball on the floor, if his man is off-balance rotating back to cover his shot or he has a mismatch (especially against the slower back-up PFs or centers). I specifically didn't mean ability to create in a one-on-one sense versus Dwight Howard or the like. He's more skilled than most back-ups, and much more skilled than most of our benches of the past. And that has been my only point this entire time.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#196 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 5, 2013 4:52 pm

After rehabilitating all summer, Nene is back and training with the Wizards a little less than a month before training camp begins. He is joined this week by the Wizards' key free agent acquisition, Eric Maynor. Al Harrington, who signed in August as a free agent, has yet to report because he is dealing with a family matter. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Glen Rice and Martell Webster already have been training at Verizon Center. CSNWashington.com

Back and training sounds good :)
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#197 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 5, 2013 8:23 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Nivek wrote:I'm mostly okay with BA's thoughts about giving Harrington the ball basically only when he's open. But Harrington is a poor "creator." The Wizards shouldn't want him doing much on offense other than shoot when open. And, given his anemic offensive rebounding, the only way he's scoring on putbacks is if one his teammates gets the ball for him.


We are talking about a back-up. So, when I say putbacks, I mean one a game. When I said "etc," I meant a list of non-iso scoring methods that I was too lazy to write. I could have as easily said "fast breaks etc." And in terms of "creation" I merely meant he has the handles and (if healthy) quickness to put the ball on the floor, if his man is off-balance rotating back to cover his shot or he has a mismatch (especially against the slower back-up PFs or centers). I specifically didn't mean ability to create in a one-on-one sense versus Dwight Howard or the like. He's more skilled than most back-ups, and much more skilled than most of our benches of the past. And that has been my only point this entire time.

If Al keeps Vesely and Singleton off the court (i.e. assuming last season's level of productivity for those guys), he's going to help. If he keeps Seraphin off the floor (tho I'm a bit doubtful of how that happens) all the more so. If he can play some 3, ditto -- Al's numbers are ok from a 3; in fact they look much more like the kind of numbers you get from a 3.

To me, the more important question at the 4 is whether we finally get a healthy season out of Trevor Booker, who has been very effective when he's been able to play.

Why this is so critical for us is that neither Okafor nor Nene are likely to give us really big minutes -- starter-level minutes. We have a bigger need than most teams for an outstanding 3d big because of this. If the result is more minutes for Seraphin, that's a problem (unless of course he becomes a very different player from last year).

Kevin was pretty much the worst rebounding big in the league and pretty much the highest turnover big in the league. That's a formula for causing your team to lose. E.g. every 40 minutes Okafor had 13.5 boards and 2.1 turnovers -- positive differential @ 11.5. Kevin had 8 boards and 3 turnovers. Positive differential @ 5.

Hence, it would be a big plus if Booker could log 2000 minutes at the level he played last year. Would make us a much more formidable team.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#198 » by verbal8 » Thu Sep 5, 2013 11:51 pm

payitforward wrote:If Al keeps Vesely and Singleton off the court (i.e. assuming last season's level of productivity for those guys), he's going to help. If he keeps Seraphin off the floor (tho I'm a bit doubtful of how that happens) all the more so. If he can play some 3, ditto -- Al's numbers are ok from a 3; in fact they look much more like the kind of numbers you get from a 3.

To me, the more important question at the 4 is whether we finally get a healthy season out of Trevor Booker, who has been very effective when he's been able to play.

Why this is so critical for us is that neither Okafor nor Nene are likely to give us really big minutes -- starter-level minutes. We have a bigger need than most teams for an outstanding 3d big because of this. If the result is more minutes for Seraphin, that's a problem (unless of course he becomes a very different player from last year).

Kevin was pretty much the worst rebounding big in the league and pretty much the highest turnover big in the league. That's a formula for causing your team to lose. E.g. every 40 minutes Okafor had 13.5 boards and 2.1 turnovers -- positive differential @ 11.5. Kevin had 8 boards and 3 turnovers. Positive differential @ 5.

Hence, it would be a big plus if Booker could log 2000 minutes at the level he played last year. Would make us a much more formidable team.


If the Wizards have Booker and to a lesser degree Harrington and even a little of Ariza as a small ball PF, replacing Vesley, Singleton and Seraphin, they look a lot more like a play-off team.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#199 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 6, 2013 2:24 pm

verbal8 wrote:If the Wizards have Booker and to a lesser degree Harrington and even a little of Ariza as a small ball PF, replacing Vesley, Singleton and Seraphin, they look a lot more like a play-off team.


So what is your prediction ?
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season. 

Post#200 » by barelyawake » Fri Sep 6, 2013 3:42 pm

Payit, I think our roster will be radically changed from years past. You asked, "How would you like seeing Harrington/Seraphin"? I severely doubt we will. I believe you will see one of Ves, Seraphin or Booker step-up. I believe Porter will be a useful piece. And I think you'll see line-ups like:

Maynor/Beal/Ariza/Booker/Okafor
Maynor/Webster/Porter/Harrington/Okafor
Maynor/Webster/Porter/Harrington/Nene
Maynor/Rice/Webster/Booker/Nene
Wall/Rice/Webster/Booker/Okafor
Wall/Beal/Porter/Okafor/Nene
Maynor/Webster/Harrington/Ariza/Okafor
Wall/Beal/Webster/Okafor/Nene
Wall/Beal/Harrington/Okafor/Nene
Wall/Beal/Harrington/Booker/Seraphin
Wall/Webster/Harrington/Booker/Seraphin
Maynor/Beal/Webster/Ves/Nene

We have so many options at this point, it may take some time for the coach to land-on the most effective rotations. And that's a good thing and unlike most Wiz benches of the past. And meanwhile we will be exploring trading options. As I said in another thread, for not blowing our wad, we upgraded our bench a good deal. Is it a championship bench? Absolutely not. But, that's not the point. It's a bench to get us to the playoffs (and mentor our young players) while still maintaining flexibility. And that was accomplished.

And if injury causes us to tank, I'll cry all the way til we go into a historic draft with Wall, Beal and Porter under contract and cap for a max big. What a woeful fate. Any way you spin it, we are watching a very good team evolve (if management has the gumption to make the big moves).

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