Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[Wizardspride]

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[nate33]

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Interesting.

That sounds like a guy who is committed to staying. I wonder if Ted and Beal have already lined up an extension? I wouldn't mind if it was a mere 30% max extension (and not the 35% supermax). It's what Beal is going to cost anyhow.

[doclinkin]

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?s=19

Interesting.

That sounds like a guy who is committed to staying. I wonder if Ted and Beal have already lined up an extension? I wouldn't mind if it was a mere 30% max extension (and not the 35% supermax). It's what Beal is going to cost anyhow.

Committed to staying: I doubt it. But I bet he is hearing from other players they want him on their team. And given his outburst earlier this year in front of GMEG I'd bet his conversation with Ted was that they would be willing to accommodate a trade request to a winning team if they got good value. Beal made it clear he wants to win. And I get the impression he has no patience with Grunfeld any more. Unless GMEG moves on I would expect Beal wants gone himself.

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IF Ted has given Beal reassurance that Ernie is retiring or something, then maybe. But I don't see a quick road back to contending. I honestly think GMEG has traded away so many draft picks and capped out the team on purpose to make the job and a rebuild less desirable to real candidates.

[nate33]

My ideal non-Zion off season. It's time to bottom out.

1. Trade Beal to either NY or CHI if either lands the 2nd or 3rd pick.

Lets say Beal for 3rd, Allonzo Trier & Frank Ntilikina

2. Draft well:
NY/Chi Pick - Draft Ja Morant
Our Pick - Draft De'Andre Hunter
Trade for a 2nd - Draft Shamorie Ponds
Sign as a UFA - Ethan Happ

3. Resign key guys and use the MLE to add to talent base. Add a few vets for mentoring purposes.
Re-sign:
Tomas Satoransky 3 yrs - $24 mil
Thomas Bryant 3 yrs - $15 mil
Jeff Green 1 yr - $3 mil

Sign:
Noah Vonleh 3 yr - $20 mil
Garrett Temple 2 yr - $5 mil
Boban Marjanovic 1 yr - vet minimum

Next year's roster:
J. Morant, T. Satoransky, S. Ponds, J. Wall
G. Temple, A. Trier, F. Ntilikina
D. Hunter, T. Brown Jr,
N. Vonleh, J. Green, D. Robinson
T. Bryant, B. Marjanovic, E. Happ, I. Mahinmi

Goal is to tank and this is the ideal roster to do it with. Win 25 tops but develop core pieces in Morant & Hunter and see if anyone else can step up. Sets us up for another high pick in '20.

I signed Vonleh to the MLE with the idea of stealing a young improving player that NY probably won't resign. Temple & Marjanovic are well liked vets and with Green, Sato and Bryant can set a positive atmosphere in the locker room despite the likely losses.

\
I'd insist on getting a bit more in that New York trade. Think about it. New York presumably has acquired or is convinced they'll acquire Durant plus another elite free agent. (Let's assume it's Bledsoe, a guy who will cost just less than the max, leaving them cap room to absorb Beal.) So NY has a core of Bledsoe, DSJ, Knox, Durant and Robinson. This is their only chance at adding one more star player. They are dangling just the #2 overall pick. What player can they acquire that is better than Beal with just the #2 pick? What team with a perennial All Star, in his prime, with a sub-$30M cap hit, and is willing to trade him for a high pick? I don't think there is anyone available as good or as cheap as Beal. With that in mind, I think it's a seller's market and the Wizards can ask for more.

I'd insist on getting the 2021 DAL 1st, the 2019 NY 2nd, and the 2020 CHA 2nd in addition to the #2 pick. They'll blink and take the deal.

On the players you added, I really like the fits of Vonleh and Temple. I don't know if Marjanovic will be available for the vet minimum though. It's no big deal. Bryant and Mahinmi (and J.Green) can handle the center minutes. Maybe take a flyer on Christian Wood if you want a 3rd center. I'd also try and keep Dekker. He's another good character guy who plays the right way and would be a good influence on the youngsters, and is young enough himself to maybe develop into something.

[Ruzious]

My thoughts and wishes (hahahaha):
1) Howard opts out
2) renounce Parker

That leaves us with three signed players (that can play) at $83.5M

PG:
SG: Beal
SF: Brown (make sure he starts next year)
PF:
C: Mahimni

First I would target our RFAs in the following order Satoransky, Bryant, Portis, Dekker.
1) Satoransky - there are a LOT of PG FAs including ~ 20 serviceable UFAs. I believe we can get lucky here and not have to overpay:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/point-guard/

2) Bryant - like Satoransky, there are a lot of C FAs including ~ 20 serviceable UFAs. I believe we can get lucky here and not have to overpay:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/center/

3) Portis - not a huge fan, I don't see him improving over time - he is what he is. We submit the qualifying offer but don't match anything to large.

4) Dekker - I think he is going to improve. IF he develops a reliable three point shot (and I "believe" he will), then he will be a steal. Again, we submit the qualifying offer but don't match anything to large.

Out if this - I am guessing we lose Portis and could be as low as $97.5M. I have no idea who we will draft or where, that will take some of the space as well.

PG: Satoransky
SG: Beal
SF: Brown (make sure he starts next year)
PF: Dekker
C: Bryant, Mahimni

That takes us into free agency where I think we should fill out the roster with UFAs (~30M). If we can sign Ariza and Green for reasonable MLE like deals - terrific. But be prepared to walk. We definitely should not cross the luxury line this year ($132M).

I believe Dekker can be signed for 3 years (w/ a team option in year 2, for example) beginning somewhere around his qualifying offer; if so, I'd much rather do that (for obvious reasons).

Sign Green to a "MLE like" deal???? Why? He's a veteran minimum player! Yes, he is shooting well (very well!) but every rebound you don't get is like a shot you took & missed. Jeff is getting 6.5 boards per 40 minutes as a PF -- that's 64% of what an average PF gets. Not to mention that he'll be 33 next season; not a guy to sign beyond 1 year.

Ditto Ariza (but he will take more than a veteran minimum deal), who turns 34 this June. Sign him if Ernie must, but for 1 year only & for way way less than the MLE.

I pretty much agree there - especially if the team doesn't clear a lot of cap space (presumably by trading Beal). There's not much point in paying more than the veteran minimum for Green or giving a multi-year contract to 34 year old Ariza - they really should have traded both of them. It makes more sense to keep Dekker - even if he's not as good as Pif is making him out to be - but he can be a cheap young quality backup - that's worth something. Why help develop him just to let him go? That's what we did with Livingston years ago, and GS should have sent us a bunch of Christmas cards for it.

Wall is untradable, so I'd suggesting banning anyone that suggests we do.

I think the end result with Mahinmi is that his contract will be stretched.

I don't expect any big trades, as they appear to be committed to Beal.

[dckingsfan]

I believe Dekker can be signed for 3 years (w/ a team option in year 2, for example) beginning somewhere around his qualifying offer; if so, I'd much rather do that (for obvious reasons).

Sign Green to a "MLE like" deal???? Why? He's a veteran minimum player! Yes, he is shooting well (very well!) but every rebound you don't get is like a shot you took & missed. Jeff is getting 6.5 boards per 40 minutes as a PF -- that's 64% of what an average PF gets. Not to mention that he'll be 33 next season; not a guy to sign beyond 1 year.

Ditto Ariza (but he will take more than a veteran minimum deal), who turns 34 this June. Sign him if Ernie must, but for 1 year only & for way way less than the MLE.

BTW, I had a follow-on to my original post. The notion is that there are a LOT of FAs in this upcoming market. Don't overspend and don't go after Green or Ariza at the expense of a better, cheaper player. And don't sign them to long-term contracts.

[Dat2U]

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Interesting.

That sounds like a guy who is committed to staying. I wonder if Ted and Beal have already lined up an extension? I wouldn't mind if it was a mere 30% max extension (and not the 35% supermax). It's what Beal is going to cost anyhow.

Committed to staying: I doubt it. But I bet he is hearing from other players they want him on their team. And given his outburst earlier this year in front of GMEG I'd bet his conversation with Ted was that they would be willing to accommodate a trade request to a winning team if they got good value. Beal made it clear he wants to win. And I get the impression he has no patience with Grunfeld any more. Unless GMEG moves on I would expect Beal wants gone himself.

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IF Ted has given Beal reassurance that Ernie is retiring or something, then maybe. But I don't see a quick road back to contending. I honestly think GMEG has traded away so many draft picks and capped out the team on purpose to make the job and a rebuild less desirable to real candidates.

It's simple. Beal wants that 5yr max extension first. Then he'll request a trade. Even better for him. if he can somehow qualify for the supermax.

Oh and there's no discount coming. I bet Beal wants every last penny.

For the Wizards, his trade value will never be higher than it will be over the next few months.

[Dat2U]

My ideal non-Zion off season. It's time to bottom out.

1. Trade Beal to either NY or CHI if either lands the 2nd or 3rd pick.

Lets say Beal for 3rd, Allonzo Trier & Frank Ntilikina

2. Draft well:
NY/Chi Pick - Draft Ja Morant
Our Pick - Draft De'Andre Hunter
Trade for a 2nd - Draft Shamorie Ponds
Sign as a UFA - Ethan Happ

3. Resign key guys and use the MLE to add to talent base. Add a few vets for mentoring purposes.
Re-sign:
Tomas Satoransky 3 yrs - $24 mil
Thomas Bryant 3 yrs - $15 mil
Jeff Green 1 yr - $3 mil

Sign:
Noah Vonleh 3 yr - $20 mil
Garrett Temple 2 yr - $5 mil
Boban Marjanovic 1 yr - vet minimum

Next year's roster:
J. Morant, T. Satoransky, S. Ponds, J. Wall
G. Temple, A. Trier, F. Ntilikina
D. Hunter, T. Brown Jr,
N. Vonleh, J. Green, D. Robinson
T. Bryant, B. Marjanovic, E. Happ, I. Mahinmi

Goal is to tank and this is the ideal roster to do it with. Win 25 tops but develop core pieces in Morant & Hunter and see if anyone else can step up. Sets us up for another high pick in '20.

I signed Vonleh to the MLE with the idea of stealing a young improving player that NY probably won't resign. Temple & Marjanovic are well liked vets and with Green, Sato and Bryant can set a positive atmosphere in the locker room despite the likely losses.

\
I'd insist on getting a bit more in that New York trade. Think about it. New York presumably has acquired or is convinced they'll acquire Durant plus another elite free agent. (Let's assume it's Bledsoe, a guy who will cost just less than the max, leaving them cap room to absorb Beal.) So NY has a core of Bledsoe, DSJ, Knox, Durant and Robinson. This is their only chance at adding one more star player. They are dangling just the #2 overall pick. What player can they acquire that is better than Beal with just the #2 pick? What team with a perennial All Star, in his prime, with a sub-$30M cap hit, and is willing to trade him for a high pick? I don't think there is anyone available as good or as cheap as Beal. With that in mind, I think it's a seller's market and the Wizards can ask for more.

I'd insist on getting the 2021 DAL 1st, the 2019 NY 2nd, and the 2020 CHA 2nd in addition to the #2 pick. They'll blink and take the deal.

On the players you added, I really like the fits of Vonleh and Temple. I don't know if Marjanovic will be available for the vet minimum though. It's no big deal. Bryant and Mahinmi (and J.Green) can handle the center minutes. Maybe take a flyer on Christian Wood if you want a 3rd center. I'd also try and keep Dekker. He's another good character guy who plays the right way and would be a good influence on the youngsters, and is young enough himself to maybe develop into something.

If Beal has that sort of value then I'm all for it!

[DCZards]

It would be a mistake to trade Beal. In today’s NBA you need 2 (probably 3) top 25 players to compete for a title. Trading a top 25 player like Beal with the hope of eventually securing 2-3 other top 25 players is a huge gamble.

Beal is young and continues to get better. He has yet to reach his peak, imo. He’s a high-character, high-work ethic guy who plays hard all the time and seems to have fun playing the game. BB is also growing in his role as a team leader. That’s the kind of person you want to be the face of your franchise.

If Beal wants to stay in DC and is committed to doing that, I think the Zards would be wise to build around him.

To me, this is a clear case of “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

[FAH1223]

Get rid of Grunfeld first. Then we can see what we do with Beal.

But based on the tea leaves, he seems to have committed to staying but a lot can change in 2 years.

[Wizardspride]

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Interesting.

That sounds like a guy who is committed to staying. I wonder if Ted and Beal have already lined up an extension? I wouldn't mind if it was a mere 30% max extension (and not the 35% supermax). It's what Beal is going to cost anyhow.

There's an interview out there in which Brad ssounds like he's all in.

Apparently, he sat down with EG and had some discussions in terms of team's future plans.

Seems like he bought in.

[rl25g]

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?s=19

Interesting.

That sounds like a guy who is committed to staying. I wonder if Ted and Beal have already lined up an extension? I wouldn't mind if it was a mere 30% max extension (and not the 35% supermax). It's what Beal is going to cost anyhow.

There's an interview out there in which Brad ssounds like he's all in.

Apparently, he sat down with EG and had some discussions in terms of team's future plans.

Seems like he bought in.

Sat down with Ted, not EG. The hope is EG is gone after the year as a result

[Ruzious]

It would be a mistake to trade Beal. In today’s NBA you need 2 (probably 3) top 25 players to compete for a title. Trading a top 25 player like Beal with the hope of eventually securing 2-3 other top 25 players is a huge gamble.

Beal is young and continues to get better. He has yet to reach his peak, imo. He’s a high-character, high-work ethic guy who plays hard all the time and seems to have fun playing the game. BB is also growing in his role as a team leader. That’s the kind of person you want to be the face of your franchise.

If Beal wants to stay in DC and is committed to doing that, I think the Zards would be wise to build around him.

To me, this is a clear case of “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

Except, if Beal is top 25 (and I don't think he is), he's in the last 5. What he probably is top 25 in is value as a player - because he's young. I think they need a top 10 player to compete for a conference championship - surrounded by good pieces that fit, and to do that - they need to take a risk. The only risks I see that're going to net them much are trading Beal and tanking.

[montestewart]

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?s=19

Interesting.

That sounds like a guy who is committed to staying. I wonder if Ted and Beal have already lined up an extension? I wouldn't mind if it was a mere 30% max extension (and not the 35% supermax). It's what Beal is going to cost anyhow.

There's an interview out there in which Brad ssounds like he's all in.

Apparently, he sat down with EG and had some discussions in terms of team's future plans.

Seems like he bought in.

Apparently, it is EGgo's one discernible skill, convincing certain influential people (Abe, Terd, BB) that he is competent and has a plan. Yuck!

[Dat2U]

It would be a mistake to trade Beal. In today’s NBA you need 2 (probably 3) top 25 players to compete for a title. Trading a top 25 player like Beal with the hope of eventually securing 2-3 other top 25 players is a huge gamble.

Beal is young and continues to get better. He has yet to reach his peak, imo. He’s a high-character, high-work ethic guy who plays hard all the time and seems to have fun playing the game. BB is also growing in his role as a team leader. That’s the kind of person you want to be the face of your franchise.

If Beal wants to stay in DC and is committed to doing that, I think the Zards would be wise to build around him.

To me, this is a clear case of “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

The math doesnt add up. You have Wall under contract for the next 4 years with the super max. Beal is due an extension and wants the max. How do you put a team around Beal that can actually do something?

You can't. How do you suppose the Wizards acquire the one to two other stars they need? Draft? It isn't going to be through free agency.

The future is real predictable. We'll max Beal out, be stuck on a one way train to nowhere and will end dealing him for pennies on the dollar once he's got his extension and demands a trade.

So what's the rosy scenario for a Beal led team where the second best player is either Thomas Bryant or Tomas Satoransky?

[Eli Babak]

The math doesnt add up. You have Wall under contract for the next 4 years with the super max. Beal is due an extension and wants the max. How do you put a team around Beal that can actually do something?

You can't. How do you suppose the Wizards acquire the one to two other stars they need? Draft? It isn't going to be through free agency.

The future is real predictable. We'll max Beal out, be stuck on a one way train to nowhere and will end dealing him for pennies on the dollar once he's got his extension and demands a trade.

So what's the rosy scenario for a Beal led team where the second best player is either Thomas Bryant or Tomas Satoransky?

This 100 %. Beal is a fool if he thinks he can compete for title in DC.

Don't get me wrong - I love Beal but hitting the reset button with new GM & coach is just the smartest way to go.

Imagine if Wall didn't get that supermax and expired this summer... Wow.

[payitforward]

...I think Green will cost more than the vet minimum, but not a lot more. I think the Biannual Exception ($3.9) gets him, or maybe just extend the maximum we can using our non-Bird rights ($2.88M). That would hopefully be enough to outbid the capped out teams offering the vet minimum ($2.4M). One disappointing thing is that if we pay him the vet minimum, he only counts $1.3M against our cap and luxtax; but if we pay him anything more, his cap hit and luxtax hit will be the full value of his contract.

Green: if we give the non-Bird max, he makes $480K more than on a minimum contract, but it costs us $1.6m more (plus any penalties on the extra $1.6m). If it's the BE exception, then it costs us $2.6m more than the vet. min. for him to earn an extra $1.5m.

We'll see, obviously, but I'm having trouble understanding why anyone will offer him more than a veteran minimum contract. Yes, he's posting a terrific TS%, but he posted a very good TS% the previous year as well (though not as good, to be sure). & that year, he played a lot of minutes for a team that went to the NBA Finals -- where he also played a lot of minutes. Yet... he was there to be had for the veteran minimum.

Why? I guess because paying him buys a team no future. In fact, the veteran minimum salary was instituted precisely b/c players at the end of their careers get paid less than their present value or being squeezed out of the league, because teams (understandably) want to build their futures.

In that sense, maybe what teams decide to pay a guy in a given year is determined in part by his value in that year but also to some degree by what they think his future worth will be.

[payitforward]

...I think Ariza will cost something like $10M on a 1-year deal, or maybe 2-years $16M. I would only resign him on a 1-year deal....

...I can't see paying Ariza that much $$ or anywhere near that much. He's even older than Green! But, you say...

...We are going to need somebody to hit threes though....

Like you I guess, I've always thought of Trevor Ariza as an outstanding 3 pt. shooter. He did have a tremendous year shooting the 3 for us in 2013-14 -- by far the best he's ever had. It seems to have made a big impression on all of us.

But... it ain't true. In fact, on his career Trevor is a below average 3-point shooter for a wing -- on just slightly higher than average attempts. & this year he's at 31.9% for us & 34.5% overall.

Ariza has been a below average scorer altogether for a wing. I was surprised: he's below average in number of points scored, FT%, & 3 pt.% Slightly above average in 2 pt.% Overall, his TS% has been below average.

[payitforward]

Which brings up...

Dekker can hopefully be had for the vet minimum, but if we want him for longer than 1 year, we might have to offer a bit more. I don't think I would extend the qualifying offer to him because I think he can be retained for less than his $3.9M QO.

As you've written "we're not going to be a good team next year." & when you're not a good team, you have to use your $$ to build your future. So, just as...

...wait to see what Portis and Parker cost before committing to Ariza....

...is on the money, we should sign Sam Dekker for 3 years on a cheap deal even before we worry about those 2 guys!

I don't understand why Dekker's performance for us is being so badly undervalued -- not only, not even particularly, by you, nate, but seemingly by everyone. Obviously, including Brooks who hasn't played him in days.

Yet Dekker has been better than e.g. Trevor Ariza: He scores about the same # of points per 40 minutes, but at a higher TS%. He also way out-rebounds Ariza -- by 28% overall, including getting 3.5 times more offensive boards! He gets more steals, commits fewer turnovers, & blocks twice as many shots. The only thing Ariza does noticeably better is to log more assists. Dekker has also been better than Jeff Green.

Above all, Sam Dekker is 9 years younger than Ariza & 8 years younger than Green. He is still developing & has more development in him. We need to be thinking about the future. Sam is a far better investment than either of those 2 end of career players. &, because I'm pretty sure $10-12m gets him for 3 years, he's also a better investment, dollar for dollar, than either Portis or Parker!

[NYG]

Most of us think Wall is 2 years away from being a useful player (if he ever is useful again). And with his cap hit destroying the ability to acquire any free agency talent, the best course is to take these 2 years to rebuild. Rebuilding would require trading Beal.

But understand that Beal is one of the very best trade assets in the league. He is currently the 13th leading scorer in the league and has actually been the 4th leading scorer since Wall went out. He is averaging 27.7 points, 6.4 assists and 5.4 rebounds without Wall on a TS% of .583. We're no longer talking about a pretty good second-fiddle. The guy is moving into legit, first-rate, carry-a-team territory. He's not in the same tier as Harden and Durant, but he's every bit as good as Oladipo, Kemba, Aldridge, etc. And he's only 25-years old and hasn't missed a game in 2 years.

The Wizards want A LOT in return for him. And the package should be heavy on picks, not players at the end of their rookie deals who may end up departing because of the Wizards' luxtax constraints. If Tobias Harris on an expiring deal was worth two 1sts (including Miami's likely lotto pick) and two 2nds, then Beal with 2 years left on his deal and a year younger is worth even more.

All that said, although us fans see the wisdom in trading Beal and rebuilding, I don't think management thinks the same way. I really don't think they're going to trade Beal. He's an All-NBA-caliber player with a GREAT attitude who is still young and improving. Those guys don't come along often, particularly to Washington. I think management will keep him regardless, and if it means they stay stuck in 40-win mediocrity for a few years because there is no way to build a team around him, so be it. Tanking and rebuilding is always easier on fans than it is on owners trying to sell season tickets.

Which teams besides the Celtics have the draft pick capital to land Beal?

Well assuming Zion is out of play, a team that lands the 2nd or 3rd pick in this year's draft.

Memphis with Jaren Jackson Jr is another team.

If the Knicks sent Knox, Ntilikina, DSJ, Lance Thomas and 3rd Overall for Beal, would they be able to get anything else with Beal?