Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

[Ruzious]

Someone asked how his defense is. I think it's very bad near the basket - where instant reactions and strength are needed - and he's very limited at both. But he's actually made some good plays out on the perimeter - where his size is a strength that he's able to use. I'd almost rather play him defensively as a 3 than a 4.

[dckingsfan]

Someone asked how his defense is. I think it's very bad near the basket - where instant reactions and strength are needed - and he's very limited at both. But he's actually made some good plays out on the perimeter - where his size is a strength that he's able to use. I'd almost rather play him defensively as a 3 than a 4.

I might have mentioned this early - but I thought in combination with thinking that Brown is more of a guard than SF & thinking Bertrans is more of a SF than PF would be way over the top. But... Bertrans defends like a SF and is able to stay in front of most SFs. So... probably an SF. Throughout his NBA career he has always been used as a PF - so there might be a bit of an adjustment.

I guess that isn't going to happen for a while with Wagner and Bryant beat up and Bertrans having to play some C.

[tontoz]

Someone asked how his defense is. I think it's very bad near the basket - where instant reactions and strength are needed - and he's very limited at both. But he's actually made some good plays out on the perimeter - where his size is a strength that he's able to use. I'd almost rather play him defensively as a 3 than a 4.

I might have mentioned this early - but I thought in combination with thinking that Brown is more of a guard than SF & thinking Bertrans is more of a SF than PF would be way over the top. But... Bertrans defends like a SF and is able to stay in front of most SFs. So... probably an SF. Throughout his NBA career he has always been used as a PF - so there might be a bit of an adjustment.

I guess that isn't going to happen for a while with Wagner and Bryant beat up and Bertrans having to play some C.

I think the 3 is Bertans' natural position on both sides but teams love stretch 4s.

[dckingsfan]

Someone asked how his defense is. I think it's very bad near the basket - where instant reactions and strength are needed - and he's very limited at both. But he's actually made some good plays out on the perimeter - where his size is a strength that he's able to use. I'd almost rather play him defensively as a 3 than a 4.

I might have mentioned this early - but I thought in combination with thinking that Brown is more of a guard than SF & thinking Bertrans is more of a SF than PF would be way over the top. But... Bertrans defends like a SF and is able to stay in front of most SFs. So... probably an SF. Throughout his NBA career he has always been used as a PF - so there might be a bit of an adjustment.

I guess that isn't going to happen for a while with Wagner and Bryant beat up and Bertrans having to play some C.

I think the 3 is Bertans' natural position on both sides but teams love stretch 4s.

And yet - we don't have a stretch 3 - so there is that...

[HairyGOATee]

What's Bertans' trade value?

[tontoz]

What's Bertans' trade value?

I have no interest in trading him. I hope we resign him and i think mgt will try to resign him.

As an expirer i doubt we could get much for him. We could probably get more in the summer with a SNT deal.

[bsilver]

Good article on Basketball Insiders
https://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-daily-davis-bertans-joins-ranks-of-nbas-elite-marksmen/

[HairyGOATee]

What's Bertans' trade value?

I have no interest in trading him. I hope we resign him and i think mgt will try to resign him.

As an expirer i doubt we could get much for him. We could probably get more in the summer with a SNT deal.

That's a good point. How much do you think he's worth though? He could get $10 million starting salary in free agency, so $40+ million guaranteed.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1917057&p=80223768#p80223768

[tontoz]

What's Bertans' trade value?

I have no interest in trading him. I hope we resign him and i think mgt will try to resign him.

As an expirer i doubt we could get much for him. We could probably get more in the summer with a SNT deal.

That's a good point. How much do you think he's worth though? He could get $10 million starting salary in free agency, so $40+ million guaranteed.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1917057&p=80223768#p80223768

I think he could get 15+ mil/yr. I posted this on the previous page:

Over the last few years, with a lower cap, here are some of the signings:

Allen Crabbe 18+ million/year
Bismack Biyombo 18/year.
Cody Zeller 14/yr
Kent Bazemore 17/yr
Patty Mills 12.5/yr
Teague 19/yr
Dion Waiters 13/yr
Hardaway 18/yr
Tony Snell 11.5/yr
Joe Ingles 13/yr
Will Barton 13.5/yr
Joe Harris 16/yr
Zach Lavine 20/yr
Donte Exum 11/yr
James Johnson 15/yr



NBA GM's aren't known for value shopping and they will be competing with us to sign him. It is highly likely that we will have to go over the cap to sign him even if the cap goes up. Hence, we need his Bird Rights.

[HairyGOATee]

Yeah, $15 million is where I can see people going for him, but what teams will actually have that much cap space to work with this summer? Well, I guess technically they don't actually have to have that much space available, they could always pull off a sign and trade.

[nate33]

I think he could get 15+ mil/yr. I posted this on the previous page:

Over the last few years, with a lower cap, here are some of the signings:

Allen Crabbe 18+ million/year
Bismack Biyombo 18/year.
Cody Zeller 14/yr
Kent Bazemore 17/yr
Patty Mills 12.5/yr
Teague 19/yr
Dion Waiters 13/yr
Hardaway 18/yr
Tony Snell 11.5/yr
Joe Ingles 13/yr
Will Barton 13.5/yr
Joe Harris 16/yr
Zach Lavine 20/yr
Donte Exum 11/yr
James Johnson 15/yr



NBA GM's aren't known for value shopping and they will be competing with us to sign him. It is highly likely that we will have to go over the cap to sign him even if the cap goes up. Hence, we need his Bird Rights.

I was thinking he would get something in the $15M a year range, but after looking at the teams with cap room, I'm starting to have doubts.

Bertans will be 28 at the start of next season. Rebuilding teams with cap room like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland and Memphis aren't going to be interested in a 28-year-old role player earning $15M a year tying up their flexibility. And better teams with cap room, like Toronto and Phoenix, might prefer to wait a year and go after the 2021 free agent class.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the best offer on the table will be MLE offers. Which means we could offer something like $12M and have the best offer on the table by a comfortable margin.

[tontoz]

I think he could get 15+ mil/yr. I posted this on the previous page:

Over the last few years, with a lower cap, here are some of the signings:

Allen Crabbe 18+ million/year
Bismack Biyombo 18/year.
Cody Zeller 14/yr
Kent Bazemore 17/yr
Patty Mills 12.5/yr
Teague 19/yr
Dion Waiters 13/yr
Hardaway 18/yr
Tony Snell 11.5/yr
Joe Ingles 13/yr
Will Barton 13.5/yr
Joe Harris 16/yr
Zach Lavine 20/yr
Donte Exum 11/yr
James Johnson 15/yr



NBA GM's aren't known for value shopping and they will be competing with us to sign him. It is highly likely that we will have to go over the cap to sign him even if the cap goes up. Hence, we need his Bird Rights.

I was thinking he would get something in the $15M a year range, but after looking at the teams with cap room, I'm starting to have doubts.

Bertans will be 28 at the start of next season. Rebuilding teams with cap room like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland and Memphis aren't going to be interested in a 28-year-old role player earning $15M a year tying up their flexibility. And better teams with cap room, like Toronto and Phoenix, might prefer to wait a year and go after the 2021 free agent class.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the best offer on the table will be MLE offers. Which means we could offer something like $12M and have the best offer on the table by a comfortable margin.

The problem with your analysis is that you are using fiscal logic. History has shown that is a foreign concept to NBA GMs.

Grunfeld was a perfect example. He couldn't spend money fast enough.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Bertans will be 28 at the start of next season. Rebuilding teams with cap room like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland and Memphis aren't going to be interested in a 28-year-old role player earning $15M a year tying up their flexibility. And better teams with cap room, like Toronto and Phoenix, might prefer to wait a year and go after the 2021 free agent class.

He's a role-playing PF with limited defense. The odds the Knicks offer him a ridiculous contract are strikingly high.

[nate33]

The problem with your analysis is that you are using fiscal logic. History has shown that is a foreign concept to NBA GMs.

Grunfeld was a perfect example. He couldn't spend money fast enough.

Well, I'm going to plow forward with a little more logic just for the heck of it.

The way things stand now, the following teams are sure to have $15M+ in cap room with the capability of throwing big money at Bertans:

Atlanta (up to $75M in cap room is possible)
Charlotte ($27M in cap room)
Cleveland ($40M in cap room assuming they keep Osman)
Detroit ($38M minus whatever it takes to resign Drummond and/or Wood and a starting PG)
Memphis ($52M in cap room)
New York (up to $54M if they let all their 1+1 contracts expire)
Phoenix ($20M if they let Saric and Baynes walk)

That's 7 teams. Let's look at them individually:

Atlanta - They have tons of cap room but they already have Collins at PF plus Jabari Parker if they choose to resign him. They also have a bunch of exclusively catch-and-shoot guys in Hunter, Reddish and Huerter. They have much bigger needs at center and backup PG.

Charlotte - They have needs at every position except PG. But they're a few years away from being a playoff contender so I don't think they're interested in a 28-year-old backup.

Cleveland - They need defense to augment their diminutive backcourt and non-rim protecting center in Kevin Love. Plus they're young and rebuilding. Bertans does not seem to be the ideal target for them.

Detroit - To have cap room, they'll need to renounce Drummond. If they renounce Drummond, they're rebuilding and won't be looking for a role player - particular one the plays the same position as their star.

Memphis - They're already pretty deep at forward with Jackson, Clarke and Anderson. However, they might really like to add a sharpshooter like Bertans to open up the floor for Morant.

New York - If they make a move to become a free agency player, they'll do so by dumping Portis and Gibson, which would add to the market supply of PF's and bring down Bertans' price. But more importantly, New York is certainly still planning on a big move in 2021 and won't want to limit their cap flexibility.

Phoenix - They'll have to let Saric and Baynes walk to generate room. And they already have the same type of catch-and-shoot sharpshooter in Cameron Johnson. I think they'll look to address other needs

So that really just leaves Memphis and maybe Charlotte as the biggest threats. And Atlanta has so much money they can't be ruled out either.

[tontoz]

I hope you are right it would certainly be to our benefit. I have seen too many contracts that defy logic to give NBA GMs the benefit of the doubt.

[DCZards]

Atlanta is a real threat to go after Bertans. He'd be a good fit with Young, who in addition to being a floor stretcher himself, is a great passer who will find the open Bertans.

But, hopefully, Davis will resign with the Zards so we can see the "Wall effect" in full effect as JW feeds the open Bertans.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The flipside to this, nate, is that Bertans is going to be a decent candidate for a big one-year payoff. I don't think he's going to get a big long-term deal but I also doubt he's going to sign a multi-year deal for too cheap in general. His agent will steer him away from that sort of thing just like Marcus Morris.

Some of those teams do have other needs but they aren't necessarily going to be able to fix them in free agency and are going to need to do something with their money. They could look to trade for bad contracts and take on picks, but Memphis owes its pick to Boston with extremely limited protection if they don't convey it this season so they're likely going to want to try to win next season and punting on cap space for picks might not be their favorite idea. The Hawks could definitely use a C but throwing big money at one they may not even like isn't always the greatest idea and may not use all their cap space. The Knicks may look to punt on their cap space again in a similar way. A fair few teams could offer Bertans a $20 mil/1-year contract or something like that, making it extremely unlikely he accepts 30/3 or 25/2 or something like that.

[payitforward]

Bertans will be 28 at the start of next season. Rebuilding teams with cap room like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland and Memphis aren't going to be interested in a 28-year-old role player earning $15M a year tying up their flexibility. And better teams with cap room, like Toronto and Phoenix, might prefer to wait a year and go after the 2021 free agent class.

He's a role-playing PF with limited defense. The odds the Knicks offer him a ridiculous contract are strikingly high.

!!! -- you took the words out of my mouth!

Which, of course, makes them a good candidate for a trade at the deadline. A couple of Knicks R2 picks (i.e. high ones) would work. It would be senseless for them, of course -- they'd be buying his bird rights, that's all. Wouldn't stop them....

[nate33]

The flipside to this, nate, is that Bertans is going to be a decent candidate for a big one-year payoff. I don't think he's going to get a big long-term deal but I also doubt he's going to sign a multi-year deal for too cheap in general. His agent will steer him away from that sort of thing just like Marcus Morris.

Some of those teams do have other needs but they aren't necessarily going to be able to fix them in free agency and are going to need to do something with their money. They could look to trade for bad contracts and take on picks, but Memphis owes its pick to Boston with extremely limited protection if they don't convey it this season so they're likely going to want to try to win next season and punting on cap space for picks might not be their favorite idea. The Hawks could definitely use a C but throwing big money at one they may not even like isn't always the greatest idea and may not use all their cap space. The Knicks may look to punt on their cap space again in a similar way. A fair few teams could offer Bertans a $20 mil/1-year contract or something like that, making it extremely unlikely he accepts 30/3 or 25/2 or something like that.

Yes. A big one-year deal is another concern. I don't see the Knicks doing it, and I doubt the Hawks would do it when they're trying to develop Hunter and Reddish, but I definitely think Memphis or Charlotte would consider it.

But even so, would Bertans prefer a 3-year $42M deal with Washington, or a 1-year $20M deal with Memphis after which there are no Bird Rights? Hot shooting can be fleeting. Bertans launching 10 3's at 45% is worth a lot, but if he regresses a bit next year and can only manage 8 3's at 41%, is he worth more than the MLE?

[payitforward]

Well... if someone gives him $20m for 1 year, of course Bertans will take it: he'd be nuts not to. But, even for NBA GMs that would be a stretch.

If I had to guess, I'd say either 2 years at $12m (plus a 2d year raise & player option) or 3 years starting a little higher in year 1 along w/ a team option for year 3.