The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[NatP4]

My UDFA target would be Wade Taylor from A&M. I’m not sure how he improved so much from freshman to sophomore seasons, but he’s a top 5 guard in the country.

Numbers are ridiculous per40: 23.1 points 5.6 assists 3.8 rebounds 2.5 steals on 58.5% TS.

He’s only 19 years old. Picked A&M to go deep in the tourney because of Taylor&Radford. One of the best backcourts out there.

??
His numbers aren't particularly good overall.

.585 is a respectable TS% for sure -- but it's nothing outstanding in context. E.g., Cassius Winston, another short guard, posted .601 on his 4-year career at Michigan State (vs tougher competition as well).

Winston was a good college player, but he played with Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, and Xavier Tillman.

Taylor is playing on a team with no NBA talent and having an outstanding year for a 19 year old in a great conference. As a UDFA, he’s a no brainer IMO.

[doclinkin]

My UDFA target would be Wade Taylor from A&M. I’m not sure how he improved so much from freshman to sophomore seasons, but he’s a top 5 guard in the country.

Numbers are ridiculous per40: 23.1 points 5.6 assists 3.8 rebounds 2.5 steals on 58.5% TS.

He’s only 19 years old. Picked A&M to go deep in the tourney because of Taylor&Radford. One of the best backcourts out there.

He showed up in a couple of my searches. Gets to the line a ton, played big against ranked competition. On a strong defensive squad. NUmbers steady and improving. He's young for his class and producing.

I don't even know how he gets to the line that often, he's a small short PG without great explosion or quicks. Fun to watch though, he's dense and resilient as a hockey puck and hits shots from odd angles after driving into contact. That floater is pretty. As an UDFA he'd be fun, and will tear up the G League even if he struggles with the next level athletes.

I think he will have to adjust to the league calling more offensive fouls. And the game speed. My impression of A&M is they are somewhat slow paced. In the NBA I think he is chasing after quicker players. Dunno.

[Frichuela]

Have watched some March madness over the weekend. Of the draft candidates in the the lottery in various mocks, I really like Cason Wallace. Very poised and solid defensively. On the other hand, Nick Smith Jr of Arkansas was very bad. Anthony Black was meh and tentative, though I understand he played with an ankle injury. Finally, Gradey Dick of Kansas was solid.

Of other players, Arkansas’ freshman Walsh was also quite impressive.

[FAH1223]

Cason Wallace had a good performance despite the loss.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Dat2U]

Have watched some March madness over the weekend. Of the draft candidates in the the lottery in various mocks, I really like Cason Wallace. Very poised and solid defensively. On the other hand, Nick Smith Jr of Arkansas was very bad. Anthony Black was meh and tentative, though I understand he played with an ankle injury. Finally, Gradey Dick of Kansas was solid.

Of other players, Arkansas’ freshman Walsh was also quite impressive.

I'm completely out on Nick Smith Jr. I assume he's hurt and not 100% but i've not seen a single example of why he should be a top 15 pick this year... either in his skillset or his physical tools.

I'm also out on Anthony Black in the top 10. I just have huge reservations on guys who are passive shot takers. He does alot well and has a high IQ but the hesitancy in taking and making shots screams a very low usage role player in the NBA and we already have enough of those types.

Gradey Dick disappointed me a little but I think he has an ultra safe floor as an elite floor spacer who can at bare minimum attack closeouts effectively, finish at the rim with a bit of pop and not be complete sieve on D. I wanted to see more shot creation but he hasn't flashed it enough to be confident in those abilities.

[Dat2U]

Cason Wallace had a good performance despite the loss.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

I think i was one of the first on here with the Jrue comparison. Jrue I think had a little more wiggle coming into the league but Cason appears to be the better shooter. Cason also has pretty good straight line quickness. Defensively he should be pretty darn good. His floor is Delon Wright. Another comparison is Mike Conley Jr. You could make a case that offensively he's too much like Monte Morris right now and too similar to Delon Wright & Jordan Goodwin defensively. He's probably got the best attributes of all 3 of our PGs but also not bringing anything those 3 aren't already bringing to the table.

[NatP4]

Colby Jones and Xavier look pretty great. Jones is definitely 1st round caliber. Reminds me of Jalen Williams from last cycle. Can score or be a primary playmaker, solid defender. Just all around good at basketball.

Creighton is one of the best college teams I have watched. 4-5 NBA players on the roster. All smart players. Reminds me of the Nova teams with Divincenzo, Bridges, Brunson, Hart.

Kalkbrenner is absolutely a NBA player. One of the best defensive bigs in the country also posting a 74% TS. No talk about Trey Alexander, but he’s just 19 years old posting 15-4-3-1 on 58% TS. Shoots 3s, draws fouls, and plays really good defense.

That group just dominated Baylor today.

[The Consiglieri]

Looking at the remaining schedule of the crapper teams. As everyone knows there is a two tiered gigantic pile up of garbage and mediocre teams after the clearly tanking sides (Detroit, Houston, San Antonio, and Charlotte).

Tier 1 are those 5 untouchables-nobody is catching the bottom 5 teams.

Tier 2:
Orlando-29 wins. 3 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.
Indiana-32 wins. 2 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.
Portland-31 wins. 4 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.
Washington-32 wins. 4 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.
Chicago-33 wins. 3 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.
NO-34 wins. 3 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.
Utah-34 wins. 2 games left against tier 1/tier 2 teams.

I might have thrown the lakers in there, almost everyone seems to have games against LA left.

Tier 3:
Toronto-35 wins
LA Lakers-35 wins
Minny-35 wins
Oklahoma City-35 wins
Atlanta-35 wins
Golden State-36 wins
Dallas-36 wins

Looking at the remaining schedule, while the wiz historically have had a habit of running off a bunch of moronic late season wins to botch pre lottery slotting, it does look like the likely window for the wizards, barring a crazy run in the final 9 games likely lottery odds connected to slot 6th through 10, with the most likely slot 7th-8th (seemingly our favorite area to pick when we aren't int the early teens).

So if I had to project the wizards, I'd go with 35-37 total wins, and slotting between 7th and 8th for the lottery w/a worst case scenario of 9th-11th, of course with freaking 7 teams on 34-35 wins right now, that pick can get real bad prelottery real fast if everyone starts losing winnable games save us.

[NatP4]

Yeah I think we will finish 6-10 and pick one of Anthony Black or Cason Wallace. Neither would be a bad pick. Wallace is probably the better player, but he’s also almost 20 years old on draft night. Delon Wright was a much better college player, but was also 2 full years older. Still, Wallace should be a sophomore right now.

A much better scenario would be to trade down with Indiana for 26/28/32 and select Podziemski, Clowney, and Cissoko.

Noah Clowney continues to get no attention despite 14&11 on 58% TS as an 18 year old playing great competition. I don’t see why he isn’t a top 10 pick.

Wright Morris Goodwin
Beal Podziemski
Cissoko Kispert
Avdija Cooks Clowney
Porzingis Gafford

[Dat2U]

My UDFA target would be Wade Taylor from A&M. I’m not sure how he improved so much from freshman to sophomore seasons, but he’s a top 5 guard in the country.

Numbers are ridiculous per40: 23.1 points 5.6 assists 3.8 rebounds 2.5 steals on 58.5% TS.

He’s only 19 years old. Picked A&M to go deep in the tourney because of Taylor&Radford. One of the best backcourts out there.

He showed up in a couple of my searches. Gets to the line a ton, played big against ranked competition. On a strong defensive squad. NUmbers steady and improving. He's young for his class and producing.

I don't even know how he gets to the line that often, he's a small short PG without great explosion or quicks. Fun to watch though, he's dense and resilient as a hockey puck and hits shots from odd angles after driving into contact. That floater is pretty. As an UDFA he'd be fun, and will tear up the G League even if he struggles with the next level athletes.

I think he will have to adjust to the league calling more offensive fouls. And the game speed. My impression of A&M is they are somewhat slow paced. In the NBA I think he is chasing after quicker players. Dunno.

My UFDA target is still UABs Jelly Walker. He pops on film. He's putting up 20 ppg, 3 rebs, 5 asts & 1.5 steals in 31 mins. Shooting nearly 40% from 3 and 88% at the Ft line. Only 5-11 but a God tier athlete.

[Dat2U]

Yeah I think we will finish 6-10 and pick one of Anthony Black or Cason Wallace. Neither would be a bad pick. Wallace is probably the better player, but he’s also almost 20 years old on draft night. Delon Wright was a much better college player, but was also 2 full years older. Still, Wallace should be a sophomore right now.

A much better scenario would be to trade down with Indiana for 26/28/32 and select Podziemski, Clowney, and Cissoko.

Noah Clowney continues to get no attention despite 14&11 on 58% TS as an 18 year old playing great competition. I don’t see why he isn’t a top 10 pick.

Wright Morris Goodwin
Beal Podziemski
Cissoko Kispert
Avdija Cooks Clowney
Porzingis Gafford

Black would be a bad pick for this roster. Just say no to passive scorers with a shaky jump shots. If he went to a playoff team loaded with shooters, he'll look better but this is not the team.

I do not share your Cissoko love. Clowney is intriguing but he's raw and I dont buy the 3 ball - had an outlier one game. He needs to return to lock down a lottery pick IMO. Podziemski is intriguing but I'm not hitching an absolutely crucial draft to a bunch a prospects in the 20s & 30s hoping to hit on one. Searching for that diamond in the rough role player is cool but the Wizards need guys that can create their own shot, that can be more than just a 4th/5th starter or low usage rotation piece.

[dobrojim]

Even before he dropped 30 in the round of 32, I had my eye on Nembhard.
(Because genetics is kinda of thing (his bro is pretty good)). Not saying as a 1st rnd pick but a guy
it would be great to acquire if possible. That said I'm not nearly as keen or discerning in my vision
as many of you.

[Endless Loop]

Tonight the Bulls beat Philadelphia, and the Pacers lost to Charlotte.

Which team doesn't have a first round pick this year?

(Actually, the team without the pick will potentially keep it if they move up to one of the first four picks in the lottery, but you get the idea...)

[NatP4]

Yeah I think we will finish 6-10 and pick one of Anthony Black or Cason Wallace. Neither would be a bad pick. Wallace is probably the better player, but he’s also almost 20 years old on draft night. Delon Wright was a much better college player, but was also 2 full years older. Still, Wallace should be a sophomore right now.

A much better scenario would be to trade down with Indiana for 26/28/32 and select Podziemski, Clowney, and Cissoko.

Noah Clowney continues to get no attention despite 14&11 on 58% TS as an 18 year old playing great competition. I don’t see why he isn’t a top 10 pick.

Wright Morris Goodwin
Beal Podziemski
Cissoko Kispert
Avdija Cooks Clowney
Porzingis Gafford

Black would be a bad pick for this roster. Just say no to passive scorers with a shaky jump shots. If he went to a playoff team loaded with shooters, he'll look better but this is not the team.

I do not share your Cissoko love. Clowney is intriguing but he's raw and I dont buy the 3 ball - had an outlier one game. He needs to return to lock down a lottery pick IMO. Podziemski is intriguing but I'm not hitching an absolutely crucial draft to a bunch a prospects in the 20s & 30s hoping to hit on one. Searching for that diamond in the rough role player is cool but the Wizards need guys that can create their own shot, that can be more than just a 4th/5th starter or low usage rotation piece.

Kessler and Nembhard went 22&31 last year.

6-10: Mathurin, Sharpe, Daniels, Sochan, Davis.

Everyone labeled Jaden Ivey the next great shot creator, Ja Morant or Russell Westbrook when he was not even a good prospect.

In 2020 you had Maxey, Quickley, and Bane all go in the 20-30 range. Josh Green went 18th, all significantly better players than Killian Hayes, Kira Lewis, and Cole Anthony who went above them.

2019 you had Jordan Poole, Kevin Porter, and Keldon Johnson in the 20-30 range after Romeo Langford, Nickeil Alexander Walker, Coby White, and Jarrett Culver were all picked above them.

Happens every year. No evidence that a pick in the 6-12 range is even better than a pick in the 20-30 range. Plenty of evidence that multiple picks in the 20-30 range is better than one pick in the 6-12 range.

Plenty of evidence that Cissoko and Podziemski are better players than Whitmore, Nick Smith Jr, Anthony Black, Gradey Dick, Keyonte George.

Cason Wallace is the one solid guy in that range, but he’s not a shot creator. Just a low usage role player that you say the wizards should avoid, even though Delon Wright is the best player on the current roster.

[NatP4]

Cissoko is posting a 60% TS with 2+ Steals and blocks per game and leading the g league ignite in on/off differential as an 18 year old.

Compare that to someone like Keyonte George who is consistently mocked in the lottery, posting a 52% TS, averaging more turnovers than assists, and 1.6 steals+ blocks at 19.5 years old playing college basketball.

George will go 11ish, Cissoko will go 20-30 range. One will be infinitely better value.

[80sballboy]

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/

Tough to be interested in a draft when there might be just one college player in the top 5. I guess I have to watch more G-League.

[doclinkin]

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/

Tough to be interested in a draft when there might be just one college player in the top 5. I guess I have to watch more G-League.

I'd be fine with Taylor Hendricks if he fell to us. A shotmaker with length, range and active defense. Sounds like an upgrade to Kispert on the defense, or Deni on the ranged shooting. And more efficient than Kuzma all around, if a lesser rebounder.

[payitforward]

Yeah I think we will finish 6-10 and pick one of Anthony Black or Cason Wallace. Neither would be a bad pick. Wallace is probably the better player, but he’s also almost 20 years old on draft night. Delon Wright was a much better college player, but was also 2 full years older. Still, Wallace should be a sophomore right now.

A much better scenario would be to trade down with Indiana for 26/28/32 and select Podziemski, Clowney, and Cissoko.

Noah Clowney continues to get no attention despite 14&11 on 58% TS as an 18 year old playing great competition. I don’t see why he isn’t a top 10 pick.

Wright Morris Goodwin
Beal Podziemski
Cissoko Kispert
Avdija Cooks Clowney
Porzingis Gafford

Black would be a bad pick for this roster. Just say no to passive scorers with a shaky jump shots. If he went to a playoff team loaded with shooters, he'll look better but this is not the team.

I do not share your Cissoko love. Clowney is intriguing but he's raw and I dont buy the 3 ball - had an outlier one game. He needs to return to lock down a lottery pick IMO. Podziemski is intriguing but I'm not hitching an absolutely crucial draft to a bunch a prospects in the 20s & 30s hoping to hit on one. Searching for that diamond in the rough role player is cool but the Wizards need guys that can create their own shot, that can be more than just a 4th/5th starter or low usage rotation piece.

Kessler and Nembhard went 22&31 last year.

6-10: Mathurin, Sharpe, Daniels, Sochan, Davis.

Everyone labeled Jaden Ivey the next great shot creator, Ja Morant or Russell Westbrook when he was not even a good prospect.

In 2020 you had Maxey, Quickley, and Bane all go in the 20-30 range. Josh Green went 18th, all significantly better players than Killian Hayes, Kira Lewis, and Cole Anthony who went above them.

2019 you had Jordan Poole, Kevin Porter, and Keldon Johnson in the 20-30 range after Romeo Langford, Nickeil Alexander Walker, Coby White, and Jarrett Culver were all picked above them.

Happens every year. No evidence that a pick in the 6-12 range is even better than a pick in the 20-30 range. Plenty of evidence that multiple picks in the 20-30 range is better than one pick in the 6-12 range.

Plenty of evidence that Cissoko and Podziemski are better players than Whitmore, Nick Smith Jr, Anthony Black, Gradey Dick, Keyonte George.

Cason Wallace is the one solid guy in that range, but he’s not a shot creator. Just a low usage role player that you say the wizards should avoid, even though Delon Wright is the best player on the current roster.

You are correct in general. Once past pick 3, one pick position is not notably better than another, especially once you factor in the obvious fact that a higher pick can be traded for a couple somewhat further down.

...2019 you had Jordan Poole, Kevin Porter, and Keldon Johnson in the 20-30 range after Romeo Langford, Nickeil Alexander Walker, Coby White, and Jarrett Culver were all picked above them....

You can do better than that, nat!
Jaxson Hayes went #8. Daniel Gafford went #38.
Jarrett Culver went #6. Cody Martin went #36.
Cam Reddish went #10. Terance Mann went #38.
DeAndre Hunter went #4. Bol Bol went #44.
Rui went #9. Grant Williams went #22.
Coby White went #7. Caleb Martin went undrafted!
Sekou Doumbouya went in the lottery....

At least 8 of the guys taken from 20-30 that year are better than 7 of the players taken in the top 10.

It's the same every year. In fact 2020 was even more extreme:

the guy taken #52 is better than the guy taken #2 (& also better than at least 6 of the other top 10 picks).
the guy taken #49 is better than the guy taken #19 (&, sadly for us, likely better than the guy who went #9 too)
the guy taken #30 is better than every single player taken before him with the exception of Haliburton & maybe Lamelo.
the guy taken #18 is better than at least 15 of the players picked before him.
the guy taken #21 is better than at least 17 of the players picked before him.
the guy taken #35 is better than at least 22 of the players picked before him.

It was the same in 2018. It was the same in 2017. It was the same in 2021. So far it looks the same in 2022. & I imagine it'll be the same in 2023 too.

But, you will never convince Dat. It's not worth trying.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[Rafael122]

KOC's draft guide is really good, I use that as a benchmark. In reading his latest thoughts, man, this is a 3 person draft. Really 1, with Miller and Scoot being on that 2nd Tier but the Thompson twins can't shoot, Gradey Dick can't play defense, these are suppose to be top 8 picks and those are serious red flags for me. Thompson twins have that "freak" trait that I like, that otherworldy athleticism that you can't reach. But that won't mean a thing if you can't shoot free throws or hit a 3.