How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[trast66]

We can all rightly criticize this FO’s track record on trades. But it is also fair to say they are competent as talent evaluators. Our 3 draft picks being in the top 10 of the rookie ladder is no easy feat. Here is to hoping they nail the next 2 drafts.

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?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

And our 3 rookies also rank in the top-10 of this purely statistical based ranking:

https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-rookie-rankings

I think Jaylen Wells has been the best rookie by a fair margin. Starting and playing big minutes on the 3rd place team in the west. Those minutes are a lot more meaningful than what Sarr doing, not his fault obviously. In four years Sarr will hopefully be the much better player.

[DCZards]

We can all rightly criticize this FO’s track record on trades. But it is also fair to say they are competent as talent evaluators. Our 3 draft picks being in the top 10 of the rookie ladder is no easy feat. Here is to hoping they nail the next 2 drafts.

And our 3 rookies also rank in the top-10 of this purely statistical based ranking:

https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-rookie-rankings

Keep in mind that our 3 rookies don't have to compete for minutes. That isn't the case on a lot of teams. Sheppard had to go to the G League to get minutes.

That’s true. But it’s also true that the rooks (and Bilal) are often out there against the other team’s starters…and there is very little vet leadership/experience for them to lean on.

[tontoz]

We can all rightly criticize this FO’s track record on trades. But it is also fair to say they are competent as talent evaluators. Our 3 draft picks being in the top 10 of the rookie ladder is no easy feat. Here is to hoping they nail the next 2 drafts.

And our 3 rookies also rank in the top-10 of this purely statistical based ranking:

https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-rookie-rankings

Keep in mind that our 3 rookies don't have to compete for minutes. That isn't the case on a lot of teams. Sheppard had to go to the G League to get minutes.

That’s true. But it’s also true that the rooks (and Bilal) are often out there against the other team’s starters…and there is very little vet leadership/experience for them to lean on.

The best moments of the season have been when the young guys are all out there together because they move the ball quickly. Some of our best games have been when Kuzma and/or Poole have been out.

I just think they aren't that good. A lack of vet leadership isn't why Bub and Sarr can't score inside. It isn't why they have to hide Sarr in defense.

[Despy]

I too prefer rookies with no holes in their game

[DCZards]

Keep in mind that our 3 rookies don't have to compete for minutes. That isn't the case on a lot of teams. Sheppard had to go to the G League to get minutes.

That’s true. But it’s also true that the rooks (and Bilal) are often out there against the other team’s starters…and there is very little vet leadership/experience for them to lean on.

The best moments of the season have been when the young guys are all out there together because they move the ball quickly. Some of our best games have been when Kuzma and/or Poole have been out.

I agree. I prefer to watch the yougins play. As you say, the ball moves…and the D is better and they seem to play with more joy when Kuz and Poole are out.

I just think they aren't that good. A lack of vet leadership isn't why Bub and Sarr can't score inside. It isn't why they have to hide Sarr in defense.

I think the chief reason they aren’t very good (at least right now) is because they are 19-21 year old rookies and second yr players (essentially kids) going up against 25-30+ yr old grown a** men with years of experience.

[Benjammin]

I too prefer rookies with no holes in their game

Exactly. Back in the day when the best players stayed in college for three or four years.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here. Too many words. Broken into chunks. Generational jumpstart.
2023.

Spoiler:

Trade up. Draft Bilal. Versatile defender. Still growing.

2024.

Spoiler:

Trade into the 1st round for +2 picks.
Draft Sarr. potential as a 7' Deni Avdija: passes well, defense ahead of his offense, good handle for size, needs interior game + 3ball.
Draft Bub. Tall passer with efficient pull-up game. Rebounding guard. Room to grow into his recent growth spurt.
Draft Key. Still growing. Med staff say he may top out at 6'10". With guard skills. Smooth looking shot if he can find his range.
All need weight room work. And inside game.
Bilal added size. Strength. Better handle. Played better as a starter. Olympic experience built confidence.
Forcefeed rooks all the minutes they can handle.
Tank for top 4 2025 pick.

2025 Draft/Offseason.

Spoiler:

1st rd.
Draft BPA. Hopefully Flagg. But the Rutgers duo are aggressive scorers and competitors.

2nd rd.
Wiz have three 2nd round draft picks. Consider among Dink Pate. Tomislav Ivisic. Jojo Tugler. Donnie Freeman. JT Toppin.
OR: Trade into the 1st round? (*)
Take Rasheer Fleming. Late blooming long armed widebody with high BBIQ, good defense.
Or Thomas Sorber the freshman version of Fleming.
Or Collin Murray Boyles if he falls.
(*Dallas needs a big defensive PG to back up Kyrie and Dinwiddie. And/or 6 more fouls and size to bang with Jokic. Add 2nd round picks as sweetener).

Offseason:
Bilal and Sarr may play in the Eurobasket tournament for France. Scrimmage with Wemby.

25-26 season.

Spoiler:

Bilal bumps Kuz to the bench. But splits minutes still with Bailey/Flagg and Sarr/George. Suppressing his counting stats.
Youngsters play heavy minutes, with up to half the team still on rookie contracts, ensuring losses even with improving play.
Tank into the top 8.

2026 Draft/Offseason.

Spoiler:

Top 8 Draft pick. High likelihood PHX will crash. If so: 60%+ chance of a top 4 pick?
In a draft with AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, Alijah Arenas.

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Plus three 2nd rounders. Including PHX's who may have crashed. And the Bulls', probably rebuilding.
Bub, Kyshawn on unguaranteed team options.
Bilal is extension eligible

2026-27 Roster:
With vets Poole, Kuzma, JV and Saddiq Bey all on expiring contracts and able to be shipped for value even just as cap relief, your core going forward would be:

1G Bub.
2G Pick from: Bailey/Dybantsa/Peterson/Arenas.
3F Bilal. KGeorge.
4F Pick from: Flagg/Boozer/Fleming/Sorber.
C. Sarr.

Fill in the blanks with 2nd round players like Dink Pate. Tomislav Ivisic. Jojo Tugler. And/or whomever else you get from the six 2nd round draft picks from 25/26.

Keep in mind that our 3 rookies don't have to compete for minutes. That isn't the case on a lot of teams. Sheppard had to go to the G League to get minutes.

That’s true. But it’s also true that the rooks (and Bilal) are often out there against the other team’s starters…and there is very little vet leadership/experience for them to lean on.

The best moments of the season have been when the young guys are all out there together because they move the ball quickly. Some of our best games have been when Kuzma and/or Poole have been out.

I just think they aren't that good. A lack of vet leadership isn't why Bub and Sarr can't score inside. It isn't why they have to hide Sarr in defense.

I agree. They aren't that good.

Kyshawn is an abysmal three-point shooter. Bub is horrible at penetrating and finishing. Alex can't finish through minimal contact, and stout centers easily displace him under the basket for easy layups and dunks .

Our rookies don't impress me.

In the past 25 years, who have the Bullets/Wizards drafted that was actually good?

Rip Hamilton, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Trevor Booker, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Deni Avidja

[DCZards]

I agree. They aren't that good.

Kyshawn is an abysmal three-point shooter. Bub is horrible at penetrating and finishing. Alex can't finish through minimal contact, and stout centers easily displace him under the basket for easy layups and dunks .

Our rookies don't impress me.

In the past 25 years, who have the Bullets/Wizards drafted that was actually good?

Rip Hamilton, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Trevor Booker, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Deni Avidja

...and just about every one of these players were labeled "busts" by some folks on this board when they were rookies.

Check the record. I'm sure you can find plenty of posts where Beal, Porter, Oubre, and Avdjia were being called "busts" or "disappointments" when they were rookies.

It amazes me how smart people on this board expect 19 and 20 yr olds to come into the league and go toe-to-toe with grown a** men with several years of NBA experience. That's an insult to the vets.

(Butler wasn't drafted by the Zards he came in a trade with LA for Kwame. He played for Miami prior to being traded to LA.)

[payitforward]

The wind from an electric fan doesn't tell you what the weather outside is like.

[pancakes3]

you guys keep saying "but they're just rookies" but rookies, if they're talented, put up good numbers on bad teams.

McCain was averaging 15ppg before he got injured. Sarr/Wells/Castle are at 11, and Bilal last year was at 8. Wemby 21, Brandon Miller 17, Paulo 20. A 19 year old Ant was dropping 19ppg, 19 y/o Luka dropped 21ppg.

This is just in reference to the discussion about "generational talent" and it's not an insult to vets. I'm just saying that our young core of Bub, Bilal, George, Sarr are regular guys and that is not an insult to anyone - just stating the facts. We should be concerned that these guys aren't going to develop into cornerstones, and plan accordingly.

A hobbled Brogdon is limping his way to 14/3/4 while Bub in more mpg is putting up 9/4/4 on worse efficiency. Jonas, a very good past-his-prime vet, is averaging 11/8 on 20mpg and Sarr is putting up 11/7 on 27mpg. Brogdon/JV are journeymen. Great players though.

Y'all talk about not having any winning vets to facilitate player development but don't we have the pieces to do that? Brogdon mentoring Bub. JV teaching Sarr. Even Bilal and Champagnie should be iron sharpening iron in practice. It just looks like that at the end of the day, it's just old journeymen raising new journeymen.

I don't know wtf Poole and Kuzma are doing. Or Kispert for that matter. Just securing the bag and showing up so they don't get fined.

[AFM]

The wind from an electric fan doesn't tell you what the weather outside is like.

You don’t drink the tap water, you don’t eat dirty apple, but you eat the apple wash by tap water - ancient oriental proverb

[dckingsfan]

The wind from an electric fan doesn't tell you what the weather outside is like.

You don’t drink the tap water, you don’t eat dirty apple, but you eat the apple wash by tap water - ancient oriental proverb

Ball don't lie...

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/3428348/

[pancakes3]

The wind from an electric fan doesn't tell you what the weather outside is like.

You don’t drink the tap water, you don’t eat dirty apple, but you eat the apple wash by tap water - ancient oriental proverb

Ball don't lie...

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/3428348/

reposting as tweet

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[payitforward]

The wind from an electric fan doesn't tell you what the weather outside is like.

You don’t drink the tap water, you don’t eat dirty apple, but you eat the apple wash by tap water - ancient oriental proverb

Where'd you meet the ancient oriental, btw?

[AFM]

The wind from an electric fan doesn't tell you what the weather outside is like.

You don’t drink the tap water, you don’t eat dirty apple, but you eat the apple wash by tap water - ancient oriental proverb

Where'd you meet the ancient oriental, btw?

At the oriental rug store of course.

[badinage]

You don’t drink the tap water, you don’t eat dirty apple, but you eat the apple wash by tap water - ancient oriental proverb

Ball don't lie...

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/3428348/

reposting as tweet

Read on Twitter

This is fascinating.

Also, concerning.

I might even move the needle to somewhere between concerning and alarming.

Which isn’t to say that the needle is stuck there. It can move. I hope it will move — down, down, down.

[badinage]

Meanwhile, in Portlandia —

Deni Avdija — the erstwhile bird in hand — has been balling OUT. His last 10 games, since re-entering the starting lineup:

18.7 points
8.6 rebounds
3.8 assists
1.3 steals
61.7 true shooting %

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree. They aren't that good.

Kyshawn is an abysmal three-point shooter. Bub is horrible at penetrating and finishing. Alex can't finish through minimal contact, and stout centers easily displace him under the basket for easy layups and dunks .

Our rookies don't impress me.

In the past 25 years, who have the Bullets/Wizards drafted that was actually good?

Rip Hamilton, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Trevor Booker, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Deni Avidja

...and just about every one of these players were labeled "busts" by some folks on this board when they were rookies.

Check the record. I'm sure you can find plenty of posts where Beal, Porter, Oubre, and Avdjia were being called "busts" or "disappointments" when they were rookies.

It amazes me how smart people on this board expect 19 and 20 yr olds to come into the league and go toe-to-toe with grown a** men with several years of NBA experience. That's an insult to the vets.

(Butler wasn't drafted by the Zards he came in a trade with LA for Kwame. He played for Miami prior to being traded to LA.)

Good catch. Washington drafted Jared Jeffries right after Miami selected Butler.

[doclinkin]

I agree. They aren't that good.

Kyshawn is an abysmal three-point shooter. Bub is horrible at penetrating and finishing. Alex can't finish through minimal contact, and stout centers easily displace him under the basket for easy layups and dunks .

Our rookies don't impress me.

In the past 25 years, who have the Bullets/Wizards drafted that was actually good?

Rip Hamilton, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Trevor Booker, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Deni Avidja

...and just about every one of these players were labeled "busts" by some folks on this board when they were rookies.

Check the record. I'm sure you can find plenty of posts where Beal, Porter, Oubre, and Avdjia were being called "busts" or "disappointments" when they were rookies.

It amazes me how smart people on this board expect 19 and 20 yr olds to come into the league and go toe-to-toe with grown a** men with several years of NBA experience. That's an insult to the vets.

(Butler wasn't drafted by the Zards he came in a trade with LA for Kwame. He played for Miami prior to being traded to LA.)

THIS. And as a reminder, we have a 50 page thread (or whatever it’s up to) dedicated to a guy we traded away who is soooo much better than Bub that OMGz we are doomed.

But if you remember the cat as a rookie teenager you’ll see something pretty remarkable

https://stathead.com/tiny/was6n

Bub and Deni were startlingly similar. Young. Unfinished. Still figuring it out against NBA players. Deni had faced adults in Europe since age 16. Bub entering from the NCAA.

I threw Booker in there as a guard comparison since he too was among the youngest rookies in league history.

Notice Bub and Booker have near identical shooting %s from 2FG and 3FG. Booker has a better TS% since he shot FTs better (85% to Bub’s 79%) and he racked up more FT attempts since that’s what got him into the league. A quickfoot first option attack guard.

But notice that Bub who we are told can’t play PG posts a high passing % and ast/to ratio. High rebounding % for a guard.

Yes Booker posted a higher usage rate and was more aggressive in hunting shots. But he wasn’t deferring to ball dominant players like Kuz and Poole.

Point being Bub is among the youngest players in league history. Judge him less by what he can’t do yet and more by whatever success he shows. Because a baby rookie is not a finished player. It’s way too early to tell what he could be. The super young players if they show anything tend to have a far higher upside when they do make the leap.

[TGW]

I am very alarmed. This roster stinks. Worst than any Grunfeld roster, that's for sure.