What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[Silvie Lysandra]

Nobody's really said anything about the trade scenario I proposed in the other thread, but basically, my idea has us sending:

Jamison
#5
Blatche
filler

to Detroit

Tayshaun Prince
Richard Hamilton
#15

And then:

Butler
Pecherov

to the Jazz

for a S&Ted Carlos Boozer/Paul Milsap (I prefer Boozer tbh)

Detroit takes the deal to get a solid wing player like Clark or DeRozan, a versatile big in Blatche, and a still solid player in Jamison, while setting up the eventual rebuild.

Let's say:

C: Blatche
PF: Jamison
SF: DeRozan/Clark
SG: Stuckey
PG: Bynum

Pretty decent for a rebuild.

Then we trade Butler and Young (to make salary match) for Boozer to fill the PF hole.

The Jazz keep a quality PF, and get the SF they need too, while keeping AK47 as a 25 mpg defensive energy sub.

C: Okur
PF: Milsap
SF: Butler
SG: Young
PG: Williams

We can go in two directions with the pick: Take Blair or the best PF on the board, or take the best PG on the board.

Our final lineup:

C: Haywood/McGee
PF: Boozer/Songalia
SF: Prince/McGuire
SG: Hamilton/Stevenson/McGuire
PG: Arenas/Holiday or Maynor or Calathes

Or...

Haywood/McGee
Boozer/Blair (he's not falling to 15)
Prince/McGuire
Hamilton/Stevenson/McGuire
Arenas/Critt

What do you think?

[doclinkin]

I don't see how Bosh commands such a lofty value in these trade proposals.

The reason he's on the block at all is because the Raps aren't sure they can afford to re-sign him. Effectively we'd be risking a loss of Butler, a prospect PG and the 5th pick for a guy who plays the same position as our steadiest scorer. Granted he plays better defense than Jamison, but we'd _still have_ Jamison inked longterm. So Bosh would re-sign here why again?

Who'd buy a ticket for the Wiz after Bosh stepped out of town and Gil and Jamison formed the Big Two? Pretty sure Bosh would rather play _next to_ Caron even if the Wiz managed to float a trade.

I like Bosh a ton, I just don't see a deal the Wiz can pull off that leaves us better for sure over the long term. Throw in some future picks as insurance and I'd think about it, but now, no. Or in a Jamison for Bosh deal, fine-- not sure Abe would sign off on it, though. Maybe at the trade deadline after it's clear there's a chemistry mesh problem in Flip's line-ups.

[dobrojim]

seems like we have 2 camps here - not sure how evenly divided

one that thinks the current team make up is fatally flawed and has a ceiling of
42-45 wins and a first rnd exit in the playoffs.

I put myself in a more optimistic camp that says if we get
reasonable health, average/typical development from our
youth along with the improvement from having a quality
coach and add a guy who contributes like a #5 overall pick,
we could win 50 easily and maybe more with a playoff
run into the ECFs. I think Gil is healthy and could have
played 10-20 games last season if he had had to. Note
that each of these 'ifs' isn't a huge optimistic stretch. One
could argue that getting them all is a stretch perhaps. But it's
not that big a one. And that's where a lot of success comes
from anyway. Just ask Miami (even though they got dismissed
in the 1st rnd).

Being in that camp means you have to blow me away with
a trade/blow up the team scenario to the point where
they lose touch with plausibility. Someone mentioned
outscoring the other team as a philosophy and got dismissed.
The Suns of 2 years ago came very close using just such a
philosophy. And they were a blast to watch even though
they ultimately came up short.

[nate33]

I agree with doc. I'm not interested in trading Butler for Bosh. It's gotta bet Jamison. Jamison plus incentive for Bosh. If we can't make it work (either directly or in a 3-way) then we should revisit the issue at the trade deadline.

[gesa2]

Bosh and Jamison would be a problem on the same floor. Even if Antawn can play the 3 on offense, he's gonna have a lot of trouble chasing even average small forwards around the perimeter, let alone Pierce/LeBron. I think if we could do Caron and #5 for Bosh, we'd have to move Jamison for best perimeter player available.
Calling Critt a "prospect" is stretching it a bit IMO unless he shows a lot of improvement soon, either in decision making or shooting. Can't live w/o either as a PG.

[Ji]

Paul Pierce in college

College

Pierce averaged 16.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in his three seasons at the University of Kansas, where he majored in Crime and Delinquency Studies, and earned MVP honors in the Big 12 Conference Tournament in both 1997 and 1998. Pierce played for Hall of Fame coach Roy Williams at Kansas. He entered the NBA Draft after his junior year and was selected with the 10th overall pick in the first round of the 1998 NBA Draft by the Boston Celtic

Early years
After his NBA debut, Pierce's ability to score, rebound and play defense, and a healthy dose of late-game heroics led to his emergence as a top player in the Eastern Conference. Along with forward Antoine Walker, Pierce led the Celtics to the playoffs in 2002 for the first time in seven years and on to the Eastern Conference Finals. In the historic Game 3 of that series, he led the Celtics to the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in NBA playoff history. Pierce scored 19 of his 28 point total during the fourth quarter, and the Celtics recovered from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the New Jersey Nets.[2]


if a guy can play basketball..he can play basketball...freak athletes are nice but for the most part t hey turn out to be busts..

gimme a basketball player like Harden or Curry

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would propose a mix of deals already discussed:
1.Trade Butler #5, Stevenson, Critt for Bosh and #9.
2.Draft best PG available at #9. Lawson/Maynor both would be solid backups and better than Critt right away.
(if Toronto balks at trade #1 we live with Critt as our backup PG and let them keep #9)
3.Trade Jamison and James' expiring contract for Vince Carter. Same age, Carter gives 3P shooting, better defense, balances the roster. NJ agrees to cut future payroll and get a versatile big that will work well with their new Center.
If we need to for cap reasons, we can still use Blatche or Young to shed Songaila's salary. But if we don't:

Arenas /Lawson
VC /Young
McGuire / VC/ Young
Bosh / Songaila/ Blatche
Haywood / McGee
This makes us a little younger (Bosh is 3-4 years younger than Caron) and better balanced, but doesn't give up on our developing talent.
Unless it leads to us losing Haywood to be able to resign Bosh...

That's all good, gesa2. Wizards would be very much improved for sure.

[closg00]

I am leaning towards wanting to use our pick for the best available PG. This draft may be weak, but it is strong for PG selections so we should finally take one. I am just not expecting for us to get through next season with Gilbert at %100 productivity. Do we really want to go into next season with Mike James & Crit for back-ups?

With Flip as coach, and a solid back-up PG in-place, we can at-least be competative in the event that Gilbert goes down. We can later use Etan & James expirings to try and improve our roster for the play-offs.

The pick:
Curry or Lawson and Evans should receive a serious look

Trade-down's?

Blair
Johnson
Calathes. Calathes could easily play two positions.

[Ji]

Harden scored 21 pts a game, 5 reb and 4 assists and 2 steals this season while shooting 50% playing for a team that had no talent around him.

He was projected to go #2 all season until the NCAA tourney. And he is very young even younger than Curry.

Are we sure we dont want him?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

seems like we have 2 camps here - not sure how evenly divided

one that thinks the current team make up is fatally flawed and has a ceiling of
42-45 wins and a first rnd exit in the playoffs.

I put myself in a more optimistic camp that says if we get
reasonable health, average/typical development from our
youth along with the improvement from having a quality
coach and add a guy who contributes like a #5 overall pick,
we could win 50 easily and maybe more with a playoff
run into the ECFs. I think Gil is healthy and could have
played 10-20 games last season if he had had to. Note
that each of these 'ifs' isn't a huge optimistic stretch. One
could argue that getting them all is a stretch perhaps. But it's
not that big a one. And that's where a lot of success comes
from anyway. Just ask Miami (even though they got dismissed
in the 1st rnd).

Being in that camp means you have to blow me away with
a trade/blow up the team scenario to the point where
they lose touch with plausibility. Someone mentioned
outscoring the other team as a philosophy and got dismissed.
The Suns of 2 years ago came very close using just such a
philosophy. And they were a blast to watch even though
they ultimately came up short.

jim, I'm of the same mind you are.

Flip averages 49 wins per season over his career. This will be the best coach this team has had in 30 years, most likely. Haywood and Arenas will be back and the law of averages says health will be much better for the team. The youth on the team have to be better. That puts this team in 45-53-win territory right there IMO.

But in all likelihood the team's got no inside threat and is still porous defensively with problems at SG and PG depth, with balky Gil our only hope to go far.

I'm fine with just making round one of the playoffs, personally. Thirty games better.

ALSO, I believe a rookie like Blair will be a better Millsap or Curry will come in and do as well as Brooks or a young Cassell or Maxwell in the playoffs--he'll hit shots. Better than Juan back that year EJ really used Dixon well. (Juan dropped 30 in the playoffs, and played well enough all year). Curry will be a solid contributor.

dobrojim, I'm thinking whethter they're 42 wins or 52 wins, drafting Blair or Curry is sound.

The trade scenarios to dump DeShawn and secure cap space to avoid the tax, resign Haywood, and even trade down and still get Blair are THE BEST ideas .... but simply drafting Blair, Curry, or probably Harden seems reasonable enough if folks can live with returning to at least mediocrity.

[Ji]

CCJ the law of averages dont apply to the wizards

[LyricalRico]

3.Trade Jamison and James' expiring contract for Vince Carter. Same age, Carter gives 3P shooting, better defense, balances the roster. NJ agrees to cut future payroll and get a versatile big that will work well with their new Center.

Interesting. I hadn't thought of that but it would fill a big need for New Jersey and would allow them to use the #11 on the best available swingman.

If we could somehow get Bosh without giving up Butler, though. Maybe make it a 3-way...

Wiz trade: Jamison, Blatche, Young, Etan, James, and #5
Wiz receive: Bosh and Carter

Nets trade: Carter and Sean Williams
Nets receive: Jamison and Kapono

Raptors trade: Bosh and Kapono
Raptors receive: Etan, James, Blatche, Young, Williams, and #5

TRADE ID 5079960

Why for Toronto? They get expirings and what could be considered the equivalent of 4 first round picks from a value perspective. If they took Evans at #5 and an athlete like DeRozan at #9 they'd have an interesting young team.

Blatche/Williams
Bargnani/Humphries
DeRozan/FA
Young/Evans
Calderon/James

Why for New Jersey? They solidify their frontcourt while maintaing outside shooting.

Lopez/Boone
Jamison/Anderson
Simmons/Clark(#11?)
Hayes/Kapono
Harris/Dooling

Why for Washington? We get two more stars without moving Arenas, Butler, Haywood, or McGee.

Haywood/McGee
Bosh/Songaila
Butler/McGuire
Carter/Stevenson
Arenas/Critt

The only thing I can think of is that New Jersey might want a little bit more (maybe we throw in our second) but other than that, I think everybody makes out pretty good. Thoughts?

[miller31time]

I don't think New Jersey particularly cares whether Jamison would be a good "fit" on their roster or not. They won't see him like that. The whole point of trading Carter would be for them to continue rebuilding. They would look for expirings and/or picks, not 32-year-old players with 40+million-dollar contracts.

[no D in Hibachi]

How about some like Pecherov+5 for Speights and a Philly second rounder? Seems to me Speight is worth the 5 and this might shave some cap.

If Speights were in the draft this year he'd be considered the 3rd best player. I'd happily trade the 5th for Speights. He's not as explosive as Griffin or as good a rebounder, but he's skilled offensively. He's got range on his shot, he's got solid post moves. I see him developing into a better version of Al Jefferson. Also, he'd had one year in the association so it won't be as steep a learning curve for him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ the law of averages dont apply to the wizards

You are correct there, Ji.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't think New Jersey particularly cares whether Jamison would be a good "fit" on their roster or not. They won't see him like that. The whole point of trading Carter would be for them to continue rebuilding. They would look for expirings and/or picks, not 32-year-old players with 40+million-dollar contracts.

Yeah, gesa, I loved your Jamison/James for Carter but doubt NJ would for the reasons miller just listed.

I think Young, +5, Etan, James for Carter and #11 would be something the Nets would be much more likely to consider.

I say Carter, even at 32 would still be worth a #5.

Getting a(n aging) superstar for youth is what the Celtics did Garnett, and what the Lakers did for Gasol.

Young and the 5 for Carter is dicey, but if the goal is short-run huge improvement that's the way to go IMO.

[DaRealHibachi]

Bye bye #5..

"We feel comfortable with the fifth pick, but we are going to explore our options to see what can make us the best possible team next year. But we feel, if we have all of our pieces out there, it would be hard for any young player to come in and break into the lineup -- even if it was the first pick."

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... no_5_pick/

[miller31time]

I agree, CCJ.

And one more thing needs to be said and understood - Vince Carter is still an incredibly solid player. He isn't the human highlight film like he was before but an argument can be made that he's having some of the best statistical seasons of his career in recent years.

Last year, alone (per-36 minutes)...

20.3 points
5.0 rebounds
4.6 assists
eFG% = 49.3%
TS% = 54.5%

...along with decent defense.

Put him in a system where he isn't counted on being a 1st option scorer and I think you see his efficiency and defense get even better.

[Severn Hoos]

OK, I'm warming up to Harden, but there's still one HUGE red flag out there for me.

His numbers for November & December (all non-conference):

23.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG - 57.8 FG%, 79.0 FT%, 46.2 3P%

His numbers after Dec. 31 (all conference + NCAA tournament):

18.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.2 APG - 44.3 FG%, 73.3 FT%, 30.6 3P%

TO, Steals, PF all stayed about the same.

That's a pretty big dropoff once the level of competition rose - and Pac 10 isn't exactly the best conference in the country.

Reminds me of another guy with unbelievable non-con stats and mediocre conference stats, evening out to a pretty nice overall stat line. But I don't think you guys want me to mention it. Because that was Jarvis Hayes.

Not saying Harden = Hayes, but I do get nervous when guys drop off significantly once conference play starts. (As opposed to guys like Griffin or Curry, who seem to do better when the competition rises.)

Harden may indeed be a good fit (certainly on offense), and I'd want to see how he works out and interviews. But the two-tiered stats give me pause.

[W. Unseld]

Love Vince from a talent stand point, don't like him at all for this squad from a mail it in standpoint.