Bradley Beal - Part II

[tontoz]

All of this is just blind hate.

Hands11, you are gone but not forgotten.

^^Get ready for people to accuse you of being a hater.

I am no fan of Temple but I will take him for the league min over Beal at $20 million easily.

[Sluggerface]

All of this is just blind hate.

Hands11, you are gone but not forgotten.

^^Get ready for people to accuse you of being a hater.

I am no fan of Temple but I will take him for the league min over Beal at $20 million easily.

Because it is hate. Calling for Garrett Temple, a career 15th man, to start over Beal is the definition of hate. It's emotionally driven finger pointing **** posting.

But by all means continue to make snide childish **** comments instead of talking about something constructive.

[tontoz]

All of this is just blind hate.

Hands11, you are gone but not forgotten.

^^Get ready for people to accuse you of being a hater.

I am no fan of Temple but I will take him for the league min over Beal at $20 million easily.

Because it is hate. Calling for Garrett Temple, a career 15th man, to start over Beal is the definition of hate. It's emotionally driven finger pointing **** posting.

But by all means continue to make snide childish **** comments instead of talking about something constructive.

It is not blind hate to say Beal "isn't a great shooter... has never cracked 80% from the foul line" etc. Those are facts.

[Kanyewest]

Beal is now 16 games into his 4th season. He still has shown no statistical improvement as a basketball player. Right now, he is no better than his rookie year, actually a bit worse. I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen. His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line.



His ORtg is 99! I think people need to really consider how easily replaceable this guy is. He is, at best, an average SG, and that's only if you give him the benefit of the doubt due to injuries suppressing his performance. The following SG's are unquestionably better than Beal so far this season:

Harden
Butler
DeRozan
Barton
Fournier
Thompson
Miles
Lamb
Oladipo
McCollum
Wade
Ginobili
Burks
Ellis
Korver
Redick
Matthews
Harris
Knight
Bradley

If he doesn't improve... dramatically... there there is no way he should get the max. It's hard to justify paying him more than $8M or so. Heck, you can make a case that we'd be better off with Garrett freaking Temple at starting SG.

I was going to reply in the game thread, but you've officially gone off the deep end. Temple is barely a rotation player. You're bitching about a player posting a **** offensive rating when the entire team is posting **** offensive ratings (and have been since Randy landed the job.)

John -99
Gortat -102
Brad -99
Otto - 105 (predictably fell back down to earth this week)

That's four starters that are struggling to produce at a league average level.

"His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line."

All of this is just blind hate. Beal is posting an efg% of .507. That's above league average, and it's the first time Beal has shot the ball above league average for his entire career.

It's cool if you don't think he deserves the max, but saying that temple should be starting over him is basically **** posting.

[nate33]

I was going to reply in the game thread, but you've officially gone off the deep end. Temple is barely a rotation player. You're bitching about a player posting a **** offensive rating when the entire team is posting **** offensive ratings (and have been since Randy landed the job.)

John -99
Gortat -102
Brad -99
Otto - 105 (predictably fell back down to earth this week)

That's four starters that are struggling to produce at a league average level.

"His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line."

All of this is just blind hate. Beal is posting an efg% of .507. That's above league average, and it's the first time Beal has shot the ball above league average for his entire career.

It's cool if you don't think he deserves the max, but saying that temple should be starting over him is basically **** posting.

First, I didn't say that Temple should be starting over him. I said that "you could make a case" that we'd be just as well off with Temple starting.

Over the past two seasons, the team is 12-8 in games where Temple has started over Beal. That's a 49-win pace. There is no doubt that Temple isn't a very good player, but at least he is a guy who understands his weakness and tries to play within himself. When he plays, more shots tend to come from other players like Gortat, Wall and Pierce, who are more efficient than Beal. One can argue that Beal's high usage rate, coupled with his inefficiency, is detrimental to the team.

Again, I'm not actually saying that Temple is better than Beal. I'm just honestly trying to bring some perspective into the discussion. It's another way of illustrating that Beal has not been a very effective player at all. He is really quite ordinary. Maybe that will change over the next 60 games, but if history is a guide, it probably won't.

[Illmatic12]

Beal is now 16 games into his 4th season. He still has shown no statistical improvement as a basketball player. Right now, he is no better than his rookie year, actually a bit worse. I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen. His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line.



His ORtg is 99! I think people need to really consider how easily replaceable this guy is. He is, at best, an average SG, and that's only if you give him the benefit of the doubt due to injuries suppressing his performance. The following SG's are unquestionably better than Beal so far this season:

Harden
Butler
DeRozan
Barton
Fournier
Thompson
Miles
Lamb
Oladipo
McCollum
Wade
Ginobili
Burks
Ellis
Korver
Redick
Matthews
Harris
Knight
Bradley

If he doesn't improve... dramatically... there there is no way he should get the max. It's hard to justify paying him more than $8M or so. Heck, you can make a case that we'd be better off with Garrett freaking Temple at starting SG.

Okay, you need to at least set a reasonable benchmark of games here. Beal has played 13 games. Based on that SSS, Wall's contract should be revoked for how he's played.

Instead of doing this not even 1/4 of the way into the season, at least wait and come out after 20 games, 40 games, 60 games, 80 games, playoffs. 13 games is a little too early to declare Beal is worse than a 38yo Manu Ginobili. You're coming off as a little too thirsty here trying to declare Beal as some sort of lost cause. You're chomping at the bits, even.

[nate33]

Okay, you need to at least set a reasonable benchmark of games here. Beal has played 13 games. Based on that SSS, Wall's contract should be revoked for how he's played.

Instead of doing this not even 1/4 of the way into the season, at least wait and come out after 20 games, 40 games, 60 games, 80 games, playoffs. 13 games is a little too early to declare Beal is worse than a 38yo Manu Ginobili. You're coming off as a little too thirsty here trying to declare Beal as some sort of lost cause. You're chomping at the bits, even.

Fair enough. I don't really think that Beal is actually worse now than he has been over the past 3 years. But I have serious doubts that he is going to pan out to be all that much better. I'm saying that I am now at the point where I'd consider trades. I no longer have a reasonable expectation that he will improve enough to be worth what he is likely to cost next summer. It's certainly still possible, but I now deem it sufficiently unlikely that I'd start exploring other options.

[Illmatic12]

Okay, you need to at least set a reasonable benchmark of games here. Beal has played 13 games. Based on that SSS, Wall's contract should be revoked for how he's played.

Instead of doing this not even 1/4 of the way into the season, at least wait and come out after 20 games, 40 games, 60 games, 80 games, playoffs. 13 games is a little too early to declare Beal is worse than a 38yo Manu Ginobili. You're coming off as a little too thirsty here trying to declare Beal as some sort of lost cause. You're chomping at the bits, even.

Fair enough. I don't really think that Beal is actually worse now than he has been over the past 3 years. But I have serious doubts that he is going to pan out to be all that much better. I'm saying that I am now at the point where I'd consider trades. I no longer have a reasonable expectation that he will improve enough to be worth what he is likely to cost next summer. It's certainly still possible, but I now deem it sufficiently unlikely that I'd start exploring other options.

I think we all know where you stand. But why not at least wait until the trade deadline/ASB, to better gauge Beal's value both on this team and to other teams.

A lot of the trades you're throwing around would set the franchise back (Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley??), assuming you seriously think that's how low Beal's value is.

[nate33]

Okay, you need to at least set a reasonable benchmark of games here. Beal has played 13 games. Based on that SSS, Wall's contract should be revoked for how he's played.

Instead of doing this not even 1/4 of the way into the season, at least wait and come out after 20 games, 40 games, 60 games, 80 games, playoffs. 13 games is a little too early to declare Beal is worse than a 38yo Manu Ginobili. You're coming off as a little too thirsty here trying to declare Beal as some sort of lost cause. You're chomping at the bits, even.

Fair enough. I don't really think that Beal is actually worse now than he has been over the past 3 years. But I have serious doubts that he is going to pan out to be all that much better. I'm saying that I am now at the point where I'd consider trades. I no longer have a reasonable expectation that he will improve enough to be worth what he is likely to cost next summer. It's certainly still possible, but I now deem it sufficiently unlikely that I'd start exploring other options.

I think we all know where you stand. But why not at least wait until the trade deadline/ASB, to better gauge Beal's value both on this team and to other teams.

A lot of the trades you're throwing around would set the franchise back (Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley??), assuming you seriously think that's how low Beal's value is.

If we wait until we're even more certain that Beal won't improve, then his trade value will drop accordingly. If I'm right that he just won't become that good of a player, then the earlier we trade him, the better the return will be.

[Illmatic12]

Fair enough. I don't really think that Beal is actually worse now than he has been over the past 3 years. But I have serious doubts that he is going to pan out to be all that much better. I'm saying that I am now at the point where I'd consider trades. I no longer have a reasonable expectation that he will improve enough to be worth what he is likely to cost next summer. It's certainly still possible, but I now deem it sufficiently unlikely that I'd start exploring other options.

I think we all know where you stand. But why not at least wait until the trade deadline/ASB, to better gauge Beal's value both on this team and to other teams.

A lot of the trades you're throwing around would set the franchise back (Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley??), assuming you seriously think that's how low Beal's value is.

If we wait until we're even more certain that Beal won't improve, then his trade value will drop accordingly. If I'm right that he just won't become that good of a player, then the earlier we trade him, the better the return will be.

Unless he suffers a major injury, Beal's leaguewide trade value is not going to drop significantly anytime soon. He's going to play this entire season as a 22yo, that's where the bulk of his value/upside comes from and it isn't going to change. His ORTG on a terribly disjointed offensive team is not going to tank his value.

It's not really meaningful to come out right when he's in the midst of a shooting slump (and the team as a whole is slumping early on), only to post his numbers after a whopping 13 game sample size.

It should take far more than 13 games to come to the conclusion that Beal hasn't improved.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Beal is now 16 games into his 4th season. He still has shown no statistical improvement as a basketball player. Right now, he is no better than his rookie year, actually a bit worse. I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen. His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line.



His ORtg is 99! I think people need to really consider how easily replaceable this guy is. He is, at best, an average SG, and that's only if you give him the benefit of the doubt due to injuries suppressing his performance. The following SG's are unquestionably better than Beal so far this season:

Harden
Butler
DeRozan
Barton
Fournier
Thompson
Miles
Lamb
Oladipo
McCollum
Wade
Ginobili
Burks
Ellis
Korver
Redick
Matthews
Harris
Knight
Bradley

If he doesn't improve... dramatically... there there is no way he should get the max. It's hard to justify paying him more than $8M or so. Heck, you can make a case that we'd be better off with Garrett freaking Temple at starting SG.

We'd have beat LAL with Temple at SG because Kobe wouldn't have gone off like he'd did on Beal.

The one thing I'm curious about is how much of this is on coaching. Barton and Lamb changed teams/coaching. McCollum came off injury and changed roles as a starter with Wes Matthews now playing for the Mavericks. Changes in role can make a difference.

(Blair as a starter at PF next to Gortat would illustrate my theory.)

I recognize and agree with all you've said about Beal, but I think playoff Beal might be more of the norm under different coaching.

Regardless, I concur 100% on shopping Beal in lieu of rewarding him with a max deal. He is overrated.

[nate33]

Beal's ORtg is now at 98. He is having career lows in WS/48, VORP and BPM.

There are 30 shooting guards in this league (6-4 to 6-7) who have played 600 or more minutes. Of those 30 shooting guards, Beal ranks 24th in WS/48, 23rd in VORP, and 23rd in ORtg. The only regular starters in the entire league worse than him are 19-year-old rookies Winslow and Russell, and Kobe.

[AFM]

So you're saying he's the next Kobe.

[nuposse04]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SpearsNBAYahoo/status/675784315217645568[/tweet]

I'm beginning to wonder if he has some sort of genetic defect with regard to bone mineralization. He injures very easily.

He can pretty much kiss max money goodbye. Turning out to be another failed pick sigh...

*also playing him nearly 40mins a game for the last 7 he played is prolly a poor idea. Injuries be damned, use ur bench rather then running players into the ground.

[nuposse04]

So you're saying he's the next Kobe.

Maybe in regards to his health, sure.

[FAH1223]

Trade him and Gortat for Cousins

[nuposse04]

Trade him and Gortat for Cousins

Don't see why the Kings would do it... we gotta hope their situation sours a bit.

[FAH1223]

From reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtonwizards/comments/3wcov1/a_panda_that_wont_screw_to_save_its_species/

I originally posted this on /r/washingtonwizards. Would love to know what the larger NBA fan base on Reddit thinks. Thanks for reading!

Per Basketball-Reference, as of December 10 there are 247 players in the NBA who've recorded at least one three-point attempt per game this season. I looked up all of these players on NBA.com's player tracking basis to see how many contested -- when a defender was 2-4 feet away, labeled "tight" on the website -- threes each attempted. Here's what I found:

Contested Three-Point Shooting by Everyone Who's Averaging At Least 1 3pa/game (Warning: Huge. Sorry about the quality. Highlighted cells = that player is doing more in that category than Beal.)

Bradley Beal is 22nd in the NBA this season in three-point attempts per game (5.6).

Beal's 121st in contested three-point attempts per game (0.3).

(Sidebar: A contested three isn't a perfect shot. But it's still a pretty good shot. It's been demonstrated that the odds of making a three have far more to do with the shooter than the defender getting within a couple of yards of the shooter. And this is the NBA. Defenses aren't going to give you impeccable looks every time. A shooter must make do.)

He's 210th in percentage of three-point attempts that are contested (5.36). Overall, he's attempted just six (6!) contested threes this season.

Every player with more three-point attempts per game than Beal has attempted more contested threes per game than him. All have a higher percentage of three-point attempts contested than Beal.

Beal is 70th of these 247 players in three-point percentage (38.9%). Just twelve of the players with a higher three-point percentage -- Devin Booker, Brandon Rush, Shane Larkin, Glenn Robinson III, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Dudley, Omri Casspi, Ben McLemore, Thabo Sefolosha, TJ Warren, Frank Kaminsky, and Jeff Teague -- have a smaller percentage of their three-point attempts contested than Beal.

Of the thirty players who lead their teams in three-point attempts per game, only Nikola Mirotic, shooting 32.7% from deep, attempts fewer contested threes per game than Beal. Among this group, Beal is 9th in three-point percentage, 16th in three-point attempts per game, and 14th in contested three-point percentage.

Team Leading Three-Point Shooters

Beal leads the Washington Wizards in three-point attempts and makes per game but of the Wizards who're averaging at least one three-point attempt per game, only Jared Dudley and Kris Humphries have a smaller percentage contested than Beal. John Wall has attempted 0.7 contested three-pointers per game -- more than twice as many as Beal.

Wizards Shooters

Put it all together and it's clear: Bradley Beal is the most reluctant three-point shooter in the NBA today. And his reticence is not without cost.

According to NBA.com, before Beal missed three games with a shoulder injury, the Wizards had a 96.7 offensive rating with him on the court and 100.7 with him off. Their true shooting percentage (TS%) dropped slightly from 54.7 to 54.2 when he went to the bench but their turnover ratio (TOR) dropped from 19.7 to 16. According to NBAWowy, lineups with John Wall -- whose own struggles contributed to a poor Wizards offense in November -- were better without Beal, too: 1.062 points per possession (ppp), 57.2 TS%, 19.9 TOR with Beal on versus 1.086 ppp, 54.9 TS%, 16.7 TOR with Beal off.

The Wizards posted a 109.1 offensive rating in the three games Beal missed with a 55.7 TS% and 10.4 TOR. Per NBAWowy, lineups with Wall scored 1.098 ppp with a 54.2 TS% and 9.8 TOR.

It seems incredible that a player then averaging 22.7 points on 58.7 TS% and 2.7 assists, who's the best shooter on his team, could be hurting his team's offense but that seems to be the case.

Since Beal's return, the Wizards have had a 96.7 offensive rating with him on the court and 100.1 offensive rating with him on the bench, with their TS% rising from 51.6 to 54.4 and TOR dropping from 16.7 to 14.8 when Beal takes a seat. Per NBAWowy (last time, I promise), lineups with Wall and Beal both are scoring 0.993 ppp on 50 TS% with a 16.6 TOR. Lineups with Wall and without Beal are scoring 1.049 ppp with a 52.8 TS% and 13.4 TOR.

The best shooter on a team declining a three is like scratching a record. It throws an offense rhythm. Possessions following Beal declining a three usually don't result in another Beal three or a layup for a teammate. Instead they tend to beget jumpers by worse shooters, kamikaze runs by Ramon Sessions, or an attempt at an improvised bailout by John Wall. Far too often in the Wizards' case they result in turnovers as conceding the three-point line allows defenses to dig in, constricting the court and encroaching on the remaining avenues for shot creation.

Possibly the most exasperating thing about Beal's reluctance to fire from deep is that it doesn't extend to jump shots inside the arc. This season he's attempted 42 contested two-point shots more than ten feet away from the rim (2.5 per game), making 13 of them. In other words, he's attempted seven times as many contested two-point jump shots as he has contested threes while converting them less frequently (30.9% vs 33.3%).

In past years a lack of three-point shooting could be credited to coach Randy Wittman's traditionalist approach to offense. That isn't the case anymore. These Wizards are rolling out four-guard lineups and playing Otto Porter at center. The coach is moaning in post-game press conferences about how he never imagined he'd have to demand a guy shoot more.

The Wizards are currently 22nd in offensive rating in the NBA. Much of that has to do with a slow start for John Wall and tepid performances by a lame-duck supporting cast. But a lot of it has to do with the Wizards' leading scorer, a player in a contract year, in an era of the game where firing away from deep is encouraged more than ever, who's reluctant to shoot. Agent Zero must be rolling over in his grave.

[thricethefun]

Forget Cousins. I would trade him for any all-star/border line all star now. His trade value has gone down a bit since the begining of the year imo. If I could get a piece like Derrick Favors or Danillo Galinarri for Beal I'd do it.

[nuposse04]

From reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtonwizards/comments/3wcov1/a_panda_that_wont_screw_to_save_its_species/

I originally posted this on /r/washingtonwizards. Would love to know what the larger NBA fan base on Reddit thinks. Thanks for reading!

Per Basketball-Reference, as of December 10 there are 247 players in the NBA who've recorded at least one three-point attempt per game this season. I looked up all of these players on NBA.com's player tracking basis to see how many contested -- when a defender was 2-4 feet away, labeled "tight" on the website -- threes each attempted. Here's what I found:

Contested Three-Point Shooting by Everyone Who's Averaging At Least 1 3pa/game (Warning: Huge. Sorry about the quality. Highlighted cells = that player is doing more in that category than Beal.)

Bradley Beal is 22nd in the NBA this season in three-point attempts per game (5.6).

Beal's 121st in contested three-point attempts per game (0.3).

(Sidebar: A contested three isn't a perfect shot. But it's still a pretty good shot. It's been demonstrated that the odds of making a three have far more to do with the shooter than the defender getting within a couple of yards of the shooter. And this is the NBA. Defenses aren't going to give you impeccable looks every time. A shooter must make do.)

He's 210th in percentage of three-point attempts that are contested (5.36). Overall, he's attempted just six (6!) contested threes this season.

Every player with more three-point attempts per game than Beal has attempted more contested threes per game than him. All have a higher percentage of three-point attempts contested than Beal.

Beal is 70th of these 247 players in three-point percentage (38.9%). Just twelve of the players with a higher three-point percentage -- Devin Booker, Brandon Rush, Shane Larkin, Glenn Robinson III, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Dudley, Omri Casspi, Ben McLemore, Thabo Sefolosha, TJ Warren, Frank Kaminsky, and Jeff Teague -- have a smaller percentage of their three-point attempts contested than Beal.

Of the thirty players who lead their teams in three-point attempts per game, only Nikola Mirotic, shooting 32.7% from deep, attempts fewer contested threes per game than Beal. Among this group, Beal is 9th in three-point percentage, 16th in three-point attempts per game, and 14th in contested three-point percentage.

Team Leading Three-Point Shooters

Beal leads the Washington Wizards in three-point attempts and makes per game but of the Wizards who're averaging at least one three-point attempt per game, only Jared Dudley and Kris Humphries have a smaller percentage contested than Beal. John Wall has attempted 0.7 contested three-pointers per game -- more than twice as many as Beal.

Wizards Shooters

Put it all together and it's clear: Bradley Beal is the most reluctant three-point shooter in the NBA today. And his reticence is not without cost.

According to NBA.com, before Beal missed three games with a shoulder injury, the Wizards had a 96.7 offensive rating with him on the court and 100.7 with him off. Their true shooting percentage (TS%) dropped slightly from 54.7 to 54.2 when he went to the bench but their turnover ratio (TOR) dropped from 19.7 to 16. According to NBAWowy, lineups with John Wall -- whose own struggles contributed to a poor Wizards offense in November -- were better without Beal, too: 1.062 points per possession (ppp), 57.2 TS%, 19.9 TOR with Beal on versus 1.086 ppp, 54.9 TS%, 16.7 TOR with Beal off.

The Wizards posted a 109.1 offensive rating in the three games Beal missed with a 55.7 TS% and 10.4 TOR. Per NBAWowy, lineups with Wall scored 1.098 ppp with a 54.2 TS% and 9.8 TOR.

It seems incredible that a player then averaging 22.7 points on 58.7 TS% and 2.7 assists, who's the best shooter on his team, could be hurting his team's offense but that seems to be the case.

Since Beal's return, the Wizards have had a 96.7 offensive rating with him on the court and 100.1 offensive rating with him on the bench, with their TS% rising from 51.6 to 54.4 and TOR dropping from 16.7 to 14.8 when Beal takes a seat. Per NBAWowy (last time, I promise), lineups with Wall and Beal both are scoring 0.993 ppp on 50 TS% with a 16.6 TOR. Lineups with Wall and without Beal are scoring 1.049 ppp with a 52.8 TS% and 13.4 TOR.

The best shooter on a team declining a three is like scratching a record. It throws an offense rhythm. Possessions following Beal declining a three usually don't result in another Beal three or a layup for a teammate. Instead they tend to beget jumpers by worse shooters, kamikaze runs by Ramon Sessions, or an attempt at an improvised bailout by John Wall. Far too often in the Wizards' case they result in turnovers as conceding the three-point line allows defenses to dig in, constricting the court and encroaching on the remaining avenues for shot creation.

Possibly the most exasperating thing about Beal's reluctance to fire from deep is that it doesn't extend to jump shots inside the arc. This season he's attempted 42 contested two-point shots more than ten feet away from the rim (2.5 per game), making 13 of them. In other words, he's attempted seven times as many contested two-point jump shots as he has contested threes while converting them less frequently (30.9% vs 33.3%).

In past years a lack of three-point shooting could be credited to coach Randy Wittman's traditionalist approach to offense. That isn't the case anymore. These Wizards are rolling out four-guard lineups and playing Otto Porter at center. The coach is moaning in post-game press conferences about how he never imagined he'd have to demand a guy shoot more.

The Wizards are currently 22nd in offensive rating in the NBA. Much of that has to do with a slow start for John Wall and tepid performances by a lame-duck supporting cast. But a lot of it has to do with the Wizards' leading scorer, a player in a contract year, in an era of the game where firing away from deep is encouraged more than ever, who's reluctant to shoot. Agent Zero must be rolling over in his grave.

Now that is ether.

Forget Cousins. I would trade him for any all-star/border line all star now. His trade value has gone down a bit since the begining of the year imo. If I could get a piece like Derrick Favors or Danillo Galinarri for Beal I'd do it.

If we could get Favors+Alec Burke for beal and a 1st I'd do it. *Add in nene for cap relief for them. Possibly try to dump Gortat for some SG/4 depth....