Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[Dark Faze]

The supersub thing is a huge benefit, but I'm not sure that Lillard could be a strong enough shot creator to get the most out of Ariza. He's a very good scorer but he's not the pure PG Wall is.

Regardless though if you guys think otherwise or still see a ton of benefit it's a deal I'd make if I were Ernie.

[JordanL]

The supersub thing is a huge benefit, but I'm not sure that Lillard could be a strong enough shot creator to get the most out of Ariza. He's a very good scorer but he's not the pure PG Wall is.

Regardless though if you guys think otherwise or still see a ton of benefit it's a deal I'd make if I were Ernie.

Fair. Every possession on Portland for the starters goes through Lillard, Aldridge or both. Ariza would never be making his own shot in the starting lineup.

[Illmatic12]

The supersub thing is a huge benefit, but I'm not sure that Lillard could be a strong enough shot creator to get the most out of Ariza. He's a very good scorer but he's not the pure PG Wall is.

Regardless though if you guys think otherwise or still see a ton of benefit it's a deal I'd make if I were Ernie.

You're forgetting they have LMA, they don't need their point guard to create a ton of open looks because Aldridge draws a ton of attention. Ariza would get plenty of clean looks in Portland.

[JordanL]

The supersub thing is a huge benefit, but I'm not sure that Lillard could be a strong enough shot creator to get the most out of Ariza. He's a very good scorer but he's not the pure PG Wall is.

Regardless though if you guys think otherwise or still see a ton of benefit it's a deal I'd make if I were Ernie.

You're forgetting they have LMA, they don't need their point guard to create a ton of open looks because Aldridge draws a ton of attention. Ariza would get plenty of clean looks in Portland.

Yeah.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback. I think it's plausible but not likely.

[popper]

The fact that multiple FO personnel and RW are traveling to Poland and LA to beg Gortat and Ariza to sign does not auger well for the Wiz. I hope if one or both depart to another team we can somehow benefit through a S&T.

[JordanL]

The fact that multiple FO personnel and RW are traveling to Poland and LA to beg Gortat and Ariza to sign does not auger well for the Wiz. I hope if one or both depart to another team we can somehow benefit through a S&T.

Is that supposed to be Portland, or do you actually mean Poland the country?

[hands11]

A Porter for Noel trade is intriguing. It does demonstrate some buyer's remorse on our point because we could have just drafted Noel if we wanted. But we also didn't know how good Ariza was going to be last year when we picked Porter. And Philly probably would want to balance out their roster if they could get a 1:1 swap for Noel and a SF after drafting Embiid.

A few things have to happen for the deal to make sense though.

1.) Ariza extension.
2.) What does Gortat's contract look like?
3.) Both Porter and Noel probably need to show a little something this season to be tradeable.

If Gortat signs a four or five year deal for big money, it puts a damper on a Noel trade because both players are true centers IMO.

If Ariza walks, then we probably can't afford to trade Porter.

I agree completely that Ariza needs to be retained to entertain dealing porter. I think if Ariza is replaced, the player will be a stop gap with the expectation of Porter growing into the starting role.

For Gortat's deal what would put the pressure on the Wizards to re-balance would be a long, but reasonable contract or a short overpay. I could see either happening if the Wizards negotiate well. Either they say - give us hometown discount and we will reward you with extra years or we can meet your asking price, but we can't add a 4th year. Either establishes Gortat as the short-term starter, but illustrates the need for a long-term replacement.

In all the off season scenarios, I think that's where I keep coming back to. Signing TA for anything reasonable is better then not signing him because then you control an asset you can trade. Same is true for Gortat. We can use them for 1-2 then trade or keep them and trade others. There is just more flexibility in signing them.

The signed assets are better then the cap space except with the exception that you can land the big fish that fits perfectly with 3rd star great fit.

As for how to force Dallas to deal with us. I meant if they wanted TA bad we can always sign him for more years, then we do a trade. As for Crowder. Yeah. That sucked we didn't get him but thats a long list of suck we didn't get. But you can come back and get players you didn't draft after they have a few years of experience under their belts. That's not a bad way to go either. I though Markeff Morris would have been a good target in 2011 so if we can get him with 3 years of experience ( which it usually takes most rookies to really settle in) that a win in my book.

On thing I am reminded of in all these trade talks... its not easy getting those top players. Lots of cap holds, renouncing, etc. And it so hard to keep up with what they can do because of all that. Are they under the cap or over with MLE, etc. Do they have 11M or 15M. Its a lot of moving parts. And we have so little real inside information.

[montestewart]

The fact that multiple FO personnel and RW are traveling to Poland and LA to beg Gortat and Ariza to sign does not auger well for the Wiz. I hope if one or both depart to another team we can somehow benefit through a S&T.

Is that supposed to be Portland, or do you actually mean Poland the country?

Gortat is currently home in Poland, so anyone making pitches to him has to go there.

[hands11]

A Porter for Noel trade is intriguing. It does demonstrate some buyer's remorse on our point because we could have just drafted Noel if we wanted. But we also didn't know how good Ariza was going to be last year when we picked Porter. And Philly probably would want to balance out their roster if they could get a 1:1 swap for Noel and a SF after drafting Embiid.

A few things have to happen for the deal to make sense though.

1.) Ariza extension.
2.) What does Gortat's contract look like?
3.) Both Porter and Noel probably need to show a little something this season to be tradeable.

If Gortat signs a four or five year deal for big money, it puts a damper on a Noel trade because both players are true centers IMO.

If Ariza walks, then we probably can't afford to trade Porter.

It's an irrelevant idea -- why would Philly want to trade Noel for Porter, now that they've already put in the time to wait for his injury to stop being a problem?

(OTOH, if it still *is* a problem, why would the Wizards make the trade?)

Because since that draft, Philly has added Embid, and Trevor Ariza had made a massive jump in production. What seemed like good, balanced picks at the time no longer look that way. Both guys are totally unproven as NBA players so there's little reason to believe that either guy has changed in value relative to their draft value.

I think Philly rides it out this year. They are storing nuts.

Another tank and another high pick. Then by trade deadline next year, then they will be ready to decide on Noel.

I believe its 99% they want to see Noel and Embiid on the court before moving Noel.

I don't think they are moving anything right now. Mayne Thad Young by trade deadline though.

[hands11]

Disagree. Porter did play, and was incredibly unproductive while doing so. Noel hasn't played. Noel's value is definitely higher than Porter's right now. The 76ers wouldn't be interested.

I don't think they'd be interested either -- but, I don't think Porter's 300 minutes have any bearing on the issue.

Not a lot, but they do more than they don't. Like CCJ just said, if Porter played even decently in summer league or in those 300 minutes, no one would be talking about trading him. It doesn't bode well that even though he only played garbage minutes against the other team's scrubs, he played at an insanely unproductive rate.

And get this - the one thing this board can agree on (truly the ONE thing), is that Eric Maynor is/was terrible. Maynor only played 215 minutes with the Wizards. Why are 200 minutes enough to definitively judge Maynor, but 300 minutes aren't enough to judge Porter? Because we're all optimists deep down inside and we want to believe that Porter isn't already a bust, and we're willing to be inconsistent in the way we apply statistics to cater to the results that we want to believe in.

I liked Otto when he was below 10th pick.
I didn't want him at #3. Hell, I didn't want #3 LOL I wanted the cheaper contract at 10th
I was very against Noel and wasn't surprised he feel. Noel is not Embiid.

But today. I'm pro Otto. I think his value is higher then Noel. My concern about Noel pre draft are the same ones I have now and that won't change until I see him play two years without getting hurt and even then I will be concerned. That broken growth plate is still there, even if enough time has passed to make that fade from peoples memories.

Noel had/has huge red flags. Otto... his problem was a hip flexer and limited opportunities. Thats no big deal. And he did show good flashes late in the year.

Not that the trade is available, but I wouldn't take Noel for Otto straight up. Not even if Noel starts off well.

As for Ottomatic. I can't wait to see him balln. I like Otto. Always did. Just felt Burke, Len or Zeller were better picks for us last year. Imagine having Burke instead of Maynor. I would love to have Burke backing up Wall going into next season. Len I liked as a longer 3 plus year investment. And Zeller was interesting to get a young PF with size that would work smarter then Kevin S and do the things the coach asked him to do. I like that he gets to the line. I'm still waiting to see that range he says he has though.

Anyway. I'm not down on Otto just yet. Actually, I'm pro Otto and think he will have a good year for us.

[hands11]

This was discussed in the past but whats the general thought of Nene + heavily protected 1st for KG. KG comes off the books next summer. Nets need any picks they can get right now.

In terms of production we'd be hurt pretty bad...thats if KG even agreed to play with us, but its not like counting on Nene being healthy would be very smart either.

I'm not giving up a 1st rounder to dump Nene. If Brooklyn won't take Nene off our hands for nothing, then so be it. I'd rather just keep hm.

I get people wanting to move Nene for cap, which I'm not overly concerned with right now, but man do people under value him.

Nene is a really solid piece and personally, I think he is still important to the formation of this new identity. I don't think young Wall, Beal and Otto are ready to take over this team with out min Gortat and Nene, and more likely all 3 of Nene, Gortat and Trevor A. Those two young bucks are still getting groomed.

Nene was playing solid minutes and every game until that freak MCL. That wasn't the foot or the regular knee. He got side swiped and got injured while setting a pick. It happens. That could have happened to anyone.

I am pro Nene and until I see something to concern me, I think he has his best year regarding games and minutes since we got him. To me he looks like he has been getting healthier not the other way around.

And the FIBA games don't start until Saturday 30 August 2014. He would have had plenty of time off.

Only thing that worries me about FIBA is how many games they play so close together. Its 5 games from Aug 30th to Sept 4th.

http://www.fiba.com/basketballworldcup/ ... nd_results

Then if you advance, you start Sept 6th and it get easier. Only 4 games between the 6th and the 14th.

http://www.fiba.com/basketballworldcup/ ... b=brackets

But worse cause its only 9 games. And if he wins the title he is going to be pumped and hungry to bring that title experience back to the Wizards.

Roster.
http://www.fiba.com/basketballworldcup/ ... tab=roster

And they have
Anderson Varejao and Tiago Splitter so its not like he is the only big there. They have 3 pro level centers.

[hands11]

Blazer fan here. Suppose that the will is in place for a S&T for Ariza. What would it take?

CJ/Wright/Freeland is about what I would offer off the cuff, but I'm curious.

If we're 100% going to lose Ariza (as in, he tells the front office he's gone, either to Portland or somewhere else with enough cap room), then that's the only way. Otherwise, I have no interest.

Wright is a guy I actually like, but he is nearly identical to Martell Webster (minus the back injury and larger contract). Freeland is filler. CJ's rookie season was not inspiring at all.

How about some draft picks (read: 1st rounders, even if protected) instead?

I think a pick could be included in that possibly... it would depend a lot.

CJ is probably a lot better than Portland or Washington fans are comfortable assuming. That is, he's the kind of player I think real NBA front offices will value more than fans making armchair GM offers (from both the Portland and the Washington side).

And yes, this scenario is based around a situation where Ariza has been brainwashed/convinced that Portland is home.

Had we pick later in the first like we should have, CJM was a huge target of mine and some other on here so we get his value. But the same bone broken twice in that foot and a slow rookie reason don't have his value up right now.

[payitforward]

I think a pick could be included in that possibly... it would depend a lot.

CJ is probably a lot better than Portland or Washington fans are comfortable assuming. That is, he's the kind of player I think real NBA front offices will value more than fans making armchair GM offers (from both the Portland and the Washington side).

And yes, this scenario is based around a situation where Ariza has been brainwashed/convinced that Portland is home.

I'd do that trade yesterday for McCollum. Kids a stud and he'd be a Reggie Jackson tiered 6th man for us one day.

Wiz fans on this board have been so ridiculously out of sight out of mind in regards to prospects that didn't put up great numbers last year. Both Porter and CJ were in bad positions. They are much better than what they showed.

There's no way Portland says yes though. Without an elite shot creator he becomes a net negative offensively. He'd be a bad sixth man.

On a bench where he's ALWAYS playing with either Mo Williams or Damian Lillard, I don't think that's much of an issue.

Ariza actually lets Portland possibly move Batum to our bench which makes him a super-sub that fixes almost ALL our problems with our bench, in which case Ariza spends most of his time playing with Lillard.

Do that, and you negatively affect overall productivity. I really like Ariza, but Batum is better.

In any case, you aren't offering enough -- to put it more succinctly, you want to trade what you see as problems on your team, but you want to get back solutions for your team. Sometimes, people think that if ok, they can't trade a broken axle for a late-model Mercedes, well... what about if they give you a dozen broken axles? Will that work.

If you want to solve your team's problem via trade, you have to trade something that solves your trade partner's problem. What problem that we have would be addressed by adding CJ or Wright? All that happens for us is that our team is downgraded.

[MDStar]

"The Wizards currently have $43 million in guaranteed salaries on the books for next season. Ariza, Gortat, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden and Trevor Booker are all headed to free agency. The team also possesses two trade exceptions worth roughly $3.2 million gained from the Emeka Okafor and Eric Maynor deals. Those exceptions are expiring in October 2014 and February 2015 respectively.
Read more at http://www.basketballinsiders.com/cruci ... cr5geyh.99"

Saw this tidbit on Twitter and hadn't really seen it discussed. Do we really have trade exemptions and if so, how do they work in conjunction with the cap?

[pcbothwel]

"The Wizards currently have $43 million in guaranteed salaries on the books for next season. Ariza, Gortat, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden and Trevor Booker are all headed to free agency. The team also possesses two trade exceptions worth roughly $3.2 million gained from the Emeka Okafor and Eric Maynor deals. Those exceptions are expiring in October 2014 and February 2015 respectively.
Read more at http://www.basketballinsiders.com/cruci ... cr5geyh.99"

Saw this tidbit on Twitter and hadn't really seen it discussed. Do we really have trade exemptions and if so, how do they work in conjunction with the cap?

Not sure about the exceptions, but 43M was assuming we let everyone go, including Rice and Miller. With Rice, Miller, Gooden and Seraphin(Im assuming he signs QO as no team would give him more) all coming back, we around 51M. But that number is without cap holds for Ariza/Gortat...

[Rafael122]

"The Wizards currently have $43 million in guaranteed salaries on the books for next season. Ariza, Gortat, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden and Trevor Booker are all headed to free agency. The team also possesses two trade exceptions worth roughly $3.2 million gained from the Emeka Okafor and Eric Maynor deals. Those exceptions are expiring in October 2014 and February 2015 respectively.
Read more at http://www.basketballinsiders.com/cruci ... cr5geyh.99"

Saw this tidbit on Twitter and hadn't really seen it discussed. Do we really have trade exemptions and if so, how do they work in conjunction with the cap?

Based on what I read, the Wizards can add someone with a salary of around $3.3 ($3.2 mil + 100K) million without trading anyone on their team. I don't know how that affects the cap, which was my question as well. If all this were true, these are guys I would target:

Alec Burks
Tyler Hansbrough
Kosta Koufos
Carlos Delfino

I view those guys as realistic trade targets. There's a ton of players on lower mid-level salaries that interest me (for example Markieff Morris), but it's doubtful teams would trade them. I like Alex Burks, I think he's a capable backup. Koufos as well. Point is, you can get a player that adds depth to your team.

[verbal8]

"The Wizards currently have $43 million in guaranteed salaries on the books for next season. Ariza, Gortat, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden and Trevor Booker are all headed to free agency. The team also possesses two trade exceptions worth roughly $3.2 million gained from the Emeka Okafor and Eric Maynor deals. Those exceptions are expiring in October 2014 and February 2015 respectively.
Read more at http://www.basketballinsiders.com/cruci ... cr5geyh.99"

Saw this tidbit on Twitter and hadn't really seen it discussed. Do we really have trade exemptions and if so, how do they work in conjunction with the cap?

If the Wizards want to operate under the cap, they will have to renounce the trade exemptions and the MLE and their own free agents. The only scenario would be letting everyone walk and trying to sign a guy like Monroe, Hayward or Deng.

However this seems very unlikely. The most likely scenario is retaining at least one of Gortat and Ariza via Bird rights. Their new deal in conjunction with the other cap holds will keep the Wizards over the cap. These trade exceptions can be used to acquire a player and send no money in return, even though they are over the salary cap. However the exceptions can not be combined, so the one for Maynor can only acquire a player making $2 million or less. The other exception is even smaller and less useful.

[payitforward]

A Porter for Noel trade is intriguing. It does demonstrate some buyer's remorse on our point because we could have just drafted Noel if we wanted. But we also didn't know how good Ariza was going to be last year when we picked Porter. And Philly probably would want to balance out their roster if they could get a 1:1 swap for Noel and a SF after drafting Embiid.

A few things have to happen for the deal to make sense though.

1.) Ariza extension.
2.) What does Gortat's contract look like?
3.) Both Porter and Noel probably need to show a little something this season to be tradeable.

If Gortat signs a four or five year deal for big money, it puts a damper on a Noel trade because both players are true centers IMO.

If Ariza walks, then we probably can't afford to trade Porter.

I agree completely that Ariza needs to be retained to entertain dealing porter. I think if Ariza is replaced, the player will be a stop gap with the expectation of Porter growing into the starting role.

For Gortat's deal what would put the pressure on the Wizards to re-balance would be a long, but reasonable contract or a short overpay. I could see either happening if the Wizards negotiate well. Either they say - give us hometown discount and we will reward you with extra years or we can meet your asking price, but we can't add a 4th year. Either establishes Gortat as the short-term starter, but illustrates the need for a long-term replacement.

In all the off season scenarios, I think that's where I keep coming back to. Signing TA for anything reasonable is better then not signing him because then you control an asset you can trade. Same is true for Gortat. We can use them for 1-2 then trade or keep them and trade others. There is just more flexibility in signing them.

The signed assets are better then the cap space except with the exception that you can land the big fish that fits perfectly with 3rd star great fit.

As for how to force Dallas to deal with us. I meant if they wanted TA bad we can always sign him for more years, then we do a trade. As for Crowder. Yeah. That sucked we didn't get him but thats a long list of suck we didn't get. But you can come back and get players you didn't draft after they have a few years of experience under their belts. That's not a bad way to go either. I though Markeff Morris would have been a good target in 2011 so if we can get him with 3 years of experience ( which it usually takes most rookies to really settle in) that a win in my book.

On thing I am reminded of in all these trade talks... its not easy getting those top players. Lots of cap holds, renouncing, etc. And it so hard to keep up with what they can do because of all that. Are they under the cap or over with MLE, etc. Do they have 11M or 15M. Its a lot of moving parts. And we have so little real inside information.

Sensible in every way.

I don't know what "reasonable" would be for Trevor. It's hard to imagine that he won't attract a lot of attention -- especially in this new era where people give much higher value to a player's ability to hit the 3 at a good clip. So, I'm thinking it might actually take $10m. Obviously, that's just speculation -- it's pointless to bat $$ back and forth, given that we don't know how the market will behave but we're going to learn pretty soon. Better to just wait and see.

This is especially true, because we really almost *have to* retain Ariza if we want to ensure that we remain on our current tier as a team. I.e. to be at least an Eastern Conference playoff team. I don't see a UFA at the 3 who'd give us more production even at $10m.

I do like Chandler Parsons, for example, and in fact I'd rather have him than Trevor. But that's only because he is young, and his arc of development would fit better w/ Wall and Beal. But, he's not as productive as Ariza -- right now.

Your last point is good, about how complicated it is to acquire good players by trade or as FAs, because you have to navigate the intricacies of your own cap situation and that of a trading partner. And this could not be a better reason to be very effective in the draft! Where you don't face this kind of problem.

If you think about how OKC became a top-tier team, there was nothing complicated about it! Just draft Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka. But once those guys are far enough along that all of a sudden you're looking at the luxury tax, etc., then you have a much tougher situation, as we saw when Presti had to figure out the Harden situation.

[payitforward]

Re: those complexities -- all the more extraordinary that there is one team, San Antonio, that seems never to face this kind of problem! They may have the best set of basketball executives in the history of the game!

[stevemcqueen1]

Disagree. Porter did play, and was incredibly unproductive while doing so. Noel hasn't played. Noel's value is definitely higher than Porter's right now. The 76ers wouldn't be interested.

He played 319 minutes. That's nothing.