Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[TheSecretWeapon]

This board is full of so many knowledgable people so I am sure someone can give me an example of where a team traded it's BEST player (not a good player) and got much better and won a championship. What my untrained eye is used to seeing is a team building around or bringing other good players--- not stockpiling a bunch of ok players.

I'd be hard pressed to find a team that won a championship with a "best player" like Wall, though. The Bad Boy Pistons sprang to mind immediately, but according to my analysis, had declined considerably by their first title in 1989. Laimbeer was actually the most productive (total production and per possession) that season; Isiah ranked 4th per possession, although he was in a very tight grouping with Dumars and Rodman. That was a case of a true team effort. No one played like a star, but they have solid contributions from a group of 8.

The following year was much the same, except that Dumars and Rodman were better by enough to offset declines from Edwards and Vinnie Johnson.

Saying you would rather have Lowery and Kemba with 8 seconds left tells me you may not be watching these playoffs---

It might be sane to take nearly anyone over Wall with 8 seconds left. This year, he was 0-5 on shots in the final eight seconds to tie or take the lead. Beal was actually the only Wizards player to have a make in that situation -- he was 1-3. Gortat, Dudley, Neal and Porter all missed their lone attempts. Of course, this is miniscule sample size theater, so it doesn't mean much of anything. Plus, most guys have crappy shooting percentages in late-game situations. Defenses are tough.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Celtics traded prime Al Jefferson and got better.

The Grizzlies traded prime Pau Gasol and ultimately got better.

Cobra Commander, these are off the top--I'll come up with more.

A a Wall trade right now could go either way IMO.

[LyricalRico]

The Celtics traded prime Al Jefferson and got better.

The Grizzlies traded prime Pau Gasol and ultimately got better.

Cobra Commander, these are off the top--I'll come up with more.

A a Wall trade right now could go either way IMO.

Eh, I wouldn't count Jefferson since that was part of a scenario where they still had their best player (Pierce) and acquired two other stars to immediately compete for a title. Totally different from the Wiz siutation. IMO the Pau reference fits better, but they still had a couple of down seasons IIRC.

What about Joe Johnson? He was older than Wall when ATL finally dealt him, but he fits the mold of "all-star, but not superstar that is the best player on a middle of the pack team". The Hawks didn't seem to miss him at all, although you I guess you could say that Horford had passed him as their best player by then.

[nate33]

This board is full of so many knowledgable people so I am sure someone can give me an example of where a team traded it's BEST player (not a good player) and got much better and won a championship. What my untrained eye is used to seeing is a team building around or bringing other good players--- not stockpiling a bunch of ok players.

Saying you would rather have Lowery and Kemba with 8 seconds left tells me you may not be watching these playoffs---

The 50-win Denver Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony.

The next year, they went 38-28 (47-win pace) while developing a pool of younger players received in the Anthony deal. The year after that, they won 57 games and finished 3rd overall in a brutal Western Conference. That was the 4th best record in the league.

I submit that John Wall is somewhat similar to Carmelo Anthony in that he's a legit star with great counting numbers, but his overall lack of efficiency results in him being not quite as effective as perceived.

[CobraCommander]

This board is full of so many knowledgable people so I am sure someone can give me an example of where a team traded it's BEST player (not a good player) and got much better and won a championship. What my untrained eye is used to seeing is a team building around or bringing other good players--- not stockpiling a bunch of ok players.

Saying you would rather have Lowery and Kemba with 8 seconds left tells me you may not be watching these playoffs---

The 50-win Denver Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony.

The next year, they went 38-28 (47-win pace) while developing a pool of younger players received in the Anthony deal. The year after that, they won 57 games and finished 3rd overall in a brutal Western Conference. That was the 4th best record in the league.

I submit that John Wall is somewhat similar to Carmelo Anthony in that he's a legit star with great counting numbers, but his overall lack of efficiency results in him being not quite as effective as perceived.

I don't think the Denver trade worked out for anyone. Denver hasn't been in the playoff conversation since Melo left and NYC has been a mess. I don't think we should trade Wall if Denver is your example of what we will look like after the trade- there is/are article after article that show that no one won the Melo trade. See the ones below

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25491882/five-years-later-a-look-back-at-the-knicks-trade-for-carmelo-anthony

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/won-carmelo-anthony-trade-knicks-nuggets-no-article-1.2554879


Pretty much the Knicks and Denver have been and are currently irrelevant 5 years after that trade- When Melo was in Denver they were building towards something- IMO...but I would love to hear the data that refutes that

[CobraCommander]

This board is full of so many knowledgable people so I am sure someone can give me an example of where a team traded it's BEST player (not a good player) and got much better and won a championship. What my untrained eye is used to seeing is a team building around or bringing other good players--- not stockpiling a bunch of ok players.

I'd be hard pressed to find a team that won a championship with a "best player" like Wall, though. The Bad Boy Pistons sprang to mind immediately, but according to my analysis, had declined considerably by their first title in 1989. Laimbeer was actually the most productive (total production and per possession) that season; Isiah ranked 4th per possession, although he was in a very tight grouping with Dumars and Rodman. That was a case of a true team effort. No one played like a star, but they have solid contributions from a group of 8.

The following year was much the same, except that Dumars and Rodman were better by enough to offset declines from Edwards and Vinnie Johnson.

Saying you would rather have Lowery and Kemba with 8 seconds left tells me you may not be watching these playoffs---

It might be sane to take nearly anyone over Wall with 8 seconds left. This year, he was 0-5 on shots in the final eight seconds to tie or take the lead. Beal was actually the only Wizards player to have a make in that situation -- he was 1-3. Gortat, Dudley, Neal and Porter all missed their lone attempts. Of course, this is miniscule sample size theater, so it doesn't mean much of anything. Plus, most guys have crappy shooting percentages in late-game situations. Defenses are tough.

If it is coming down to the last 8 seconds- statistically you have already lost as no one makes more than 50% of their buzzer beaters- WALL CANT SHOOT...but Lowery has officially SUCKED the majority of the playoff. If Wall had a few playoff games like Lowery did this year the board would BLOW UP . BUT WHEN YOU MISS THE PLAYOFFS...you don't have much to complain about. My thought is this- wall is a bargin in this NBA with his contract with the cap going up. We need to keep our best player unless we can upgrade at that position - I think winners focus on improving upon their weaknesses not worrying about their strength- But I'm a rookie on the board

[nate33]

I don't think the Denver trade worked out for anyone. Denver hasn't been in the playoff conversation since Melo left and NYC has been a mess. I don't think we should trade Wall if Denver is your example of what we will look like after the trade- there is/are article after article that show that no one won the Melo trade. See the ones below

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25491882/five-years-later-a-look-back-at-the-knicks-trade-for-carmelo-anthony

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/won-carmelo-anthony-trade-knicks-nuggets-no-article-1.2554879


Pretty much the Knicks and Denver have been and are currently irrelevant 5 years after that trade- When Melo was in Denver they were building towards something- IMO...but I would love to hear the data that refutes that

It worked real well for Denver for a while. They got younger and better. 57 wins in the West is damn impressive. The problem was that Gallinari and Chandler developed chronic injury issues, and then Denver failed to resign Iguodala.

[penbeast0]

The Celtics traded prime Al Jefferson and got better.

The Grizzlies traded prime Pau Gasol and ultimately got better.

Cobra Commander, these are off the top--I'll come up with more.

A a Wall trade right now could go either way IMO.

Minnesota traded Kevin Garnett and has been even more irrelevant for a decade . . . . and we have Grunfeld as GM; do you trust him to do this right?

[payitforward]

Not sure I get why we are discussing whether or not Wall should/could be traded ad nauseam, given that no one thinks he will be and the only suggestions to trade him were along the lines of 'throw in the towel; lets start over.'

Might be better to discuss any actually possible trades that could help this team that needs so very much help. No?

[gesa2]

I still say the fantasy off-season is to trade Wall for Favors then sign Mike Conley.

[LyricalRico]

I still say the fantasy off-season is to trade Wall for Favors then sign Mike Conley.

Wow, bold. To me Favors isn't enough, though.

[MyLifeIsADream]

This board is full of so many knowledgable people so I am sure someone can give me an example of where a team traded it's BEST player (not a good player) and got much better and won a championship. What my untrained eye is used to seeing is a team building around or bringing other good players--- not stockpiling a bunch of ok players.

I'd be hard pressed to find a team that won a championship with a "best player" like Wall, though. The Bad Boy Pistons sprang to mind immediately, but according to my analysis, had declined considerably by their first title in 1989. Laimbeer was actually the most productive (total production and per possession) that season; Isiah ranked 4th per possession, although he was in a very tight grouping with Dumars and Rodman. That was a case of a true team effort. No one played like a star, but they have solid contributions from a group of 8.

The following year was much the same, except that Dumars and Rodman were better by enough to offset declines from Edwards and Vinnie Johnson.

Saying you would rather have Lowery and Kemba with 8 seconds left tells me you may not be watching these playoffs---

It might be sane to take nearly anyone over Wall with 8 seconds left. This year, he was 0-5 on shots in the final eight seconds to tie or take the lead. Beal was actually the only Wizards player to have a make in that situation -- he was 1-3. Gortat, Dudley, Neal and Porter all missed their lone attempts. Of course, this is miniscule sample size theater, so it doesn't mean much of anything. Plus, most guys have crappy shooting percentages in late-game situations. Defenses are tough.

I think it's obvious Wall needs help. Getting a new coach helps, but getting better players is absolutely required. Who's been the the 2nd best player in DC during the Wall era? Trevor Ariza, Marcin Gortat, Nene? It certainly hasn't been Bradley Beal up to this point. Management has been woeful in adding pieces to this team to make them a contender.

I think Wall can be better than he has but without better talent around him it's all moot.

[CobraCommander]

I still say the fantasy off-season is to trade Wall for Favors then sign Mike Conley.

Wow, bold. To me Favors isn't enough, though.

That is officially a lottery team for the next 3 years!

[gesa2]

I love Wall, he's my favorite Wizard. But you are overrating him or underrating Favors. Check out their respective PERs WS/48, or any other metric. I don't think we'd be championship contenders with this move, we'd still be dependant on one or two of our other young players getting to all star or better level, but we'd be much better than we are now.

Edited for spelling

[MyLifeIsADream]

I love Wall, he's my favorite Wizard. But you are overrating him or underrating Favors. Check out their respective PERs WS/48, or any other metric. I don't think we'd be championship contenders with this move, we'd still be dependant on one or two of our other young players getting to all star or better level, but we'd be much better than we are now.

Edited for spelling

Favors is a good player. But I think Wall is the more important player even if he's not as efficient as we'd like. I don't think you can win without a dynamic shot creator. If you trade Wall for Favors, we'd be looking at taking a step back because the odds of signing Conley (who's been injury prone) are slim. About the same odds we have for signing Horford this offseason. And there's really no one worth signing at starting PG outside of Conley.

[fishercob]

I still say the fantasy off-season is to trade Wall for Favors then sign Mike Conley.

The signing Conley part is probably fantasy, but he's a hell of a player -- and there may be a part of him that wants to come east because he hasn't been able to get his due (or make the All-Star team) in the West.

The interesting thing about a Wall-Favors swap is that I think Utah would add more value, to the point where the Wizards could really make out.

Utah would have Wall locked up at a fair contract for another year than they have Favors. Utah already has a dominant defensive big in Gobert and Lyles looks be a very good player who fits well. Gobert-Lyles-Hayward-Hood-Wall has the look of an elite defensive team that can be at least average on offense -- that's a really good team.

So what else could the Wizards get? Exum? The #9 pick?

It's worth exploring.

[LyricalRico]

I still say the fantasy off-season is to trade Wall for Favors then sign Mike Conley.

The signing Conley part is probably fantasy, but he's a hell of a player -- and there may be a part of him that wants to come east because he hasn't been able to get his due (or make the All-Star team) in the West.

The interesting thing about a Wall-Favors swap is that I think Utah would add more value, to the point where the Wizards could really make out.

Utah would have Wall locked up at a fair contract for another year than they have Favors. Utah already has a dominant defensive big in Gobert and Lyles looks be a very good player who fits well. Gobert-Lyles-Hayward-Hood-Wall has the look of an elite defensive team that can be at least average on offense -- that's a really good team.

So what else could the Wizards get? Exum? The #9 pick?

It's worth exploring.

Exactly, if Utah sweetens the pot it's definitely interesting. Favors+9 for Wall would be tough to turn down IMO. Next question would be who can we flip Keef for? Maybe to Sacto for Koufos+Casspi? Not sure Conley signs when other teams like SA will also be in the mix. Speaking of SA, what about taking on Tony Parker as short term PG solution and vet leader (assuming he becomes available)?

Gortat/Koufos
Favors/#9
Porter/Casspi
Beal/Oubre
Parker/Sato

Not sure where that leaves us cap wise, so there may still be more options.

[payitforward]

Anything's worth exploring, and any player can be traded. It's just a matter of the deal.

Now... it's usually a mistake to trade a superstar, because superstar salaries are one of the only available bargains in the league's salary structure. But, this is not an issue with Wall, because he's not a superstar. He's an outstanding NBA player, but he's not a superstar.

[payitforward]

That said, I can't see any real advantage to trading Wall for Favors. You can make an argument that one or the other is a bigger contributor to wins, but either way it's not a big difference.

[AFM]

Anything's worth exploring, and any player can be traded. It's just a matter of the deal.

Now... it's usually a mistake to trade a superstar, because superstar salaries are one of the only available bargains in the league's salary structure. But, this is not an issue with Wall, because he's not a superstar. He's an outstanding NBA player, but he's not a superstar.

He's still a bargain. See: Demarre Carrol's contract, etc. it's the new norm.