Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIII

[dlts20]

Again, I must be the only Mahimni fan on here. I think he is perfect for us when fully healthy and could change a series. His health is definitely in question but other than that, he's good to me. I'm not on board with the Mahimni deal killing us or that everyone wishes we could move him. If healthy he helps us easily more than these guys everyone is naming

[NatP4]

I don't understand why teams aren't interested in Patrick Patterson. This guy is 9th in RPM for power forwards, 24th in DRPM. Only 27 years old, would love for the wizards to sign him to a 3 year 25 million$ deal. No more Jason Smith at PF Would always have decent spacing with Patterson/Keef on the floor.

If you simply go into next season with Sato/Mac/Oubre/Patterson/Mahinmi 2nd unit, you have 5 guys who were in the top half at their respective positions in DRPM.

We haven't seen a single wizards related rumor regarding a player that would be in that 8 million per range

[FAH1223]

Here's what I'd do over the next 2 seasons.

Dump Mahinmi.

Get John to convince Boogie to sign a 1+1 max in 2018, so he can opt out in 2019. (Without tampering of course)

Sign Boogie in 2019.

Even with Mahinmi being a salary dump, we still don't have enough room to go after Cousins. I think we're about $7 million over the projected cap for 2018-2019.

If the point is to have a Wall-Beal-Porter-Cousins team, then you basically have to get rid of Gortat/Morris/Sato, hope Smith doesn't pick up his option, and McCullough's team option doesn't get picked up. It still isn't enough room if Cousins is expecting to get something around $27-28 million. We'd probably have to shed Meeks as well.

Arguably the easier route would be to do something like Porter and Sato for Cousins and Ajinca.

I'm talking 2019-2020.

Boogie stays put in NOLA for 2018-2019.

Wizards have more flexibility in 2019.

[NatP4]

Again, I must be the only Mahimni fan on here. I think he is perfect for us when fully healthy and could change a series. His health is definitely in question but other than that, he's good to me. I'm not on board with the Mahimni deal killing us or that everyone wishes we could move him. If healthy he helps us easily more than these guys everyone is naming

He was 9th best in DRPM this season among centers after a season with Indiana where he was 3rd best. People are being ridiculous on here about his value. When healthy he deserves 12 million or so per year. Honestly if he plays 70+ games at that level defensively, he's easily worth 16 million per.

[dckingsfan]

Leandro Barbosa for the vet minimum?

[dckingsfan]

Again, I must be the only Mahimni fan on here. I think he is perfect for us when fully healthy and could change a series. His health is definitely in question but other than that, he's good to me. I'm not on board with the Mahimni deal killing us or that everyone wishes we could move him. If healthy he helps us easily more than these guys everyone is naming

Well, that is the key really, "fully healthy" and he is rarely that. EG tends to go with players that are injured - and it often hurts us.

Combine that with his meh playoffs the last three years. Yes, in 15-16 he was very good defensively but not so much offensively.

Add to that last season's offseason of Mahimni, Nicholson (+ first), Burke (+ second) and Thorton and it leaves you with a sick feeling in your stomach.

[payitforward]

Assuming we pick up Sheldon's option, with Meeks we'll have 12 players at $98.7m. Then there's Otto, who obviously is going to take a max deal to retain. That gets us to @ $124m & 13 players. At that point, we're already well into the luxury tax.

This year, teams are required to carry 14 players. I'd say smart teams will keep 17, including a couple of 2-way players. But, we're not a smart team, we're a dumb team. So my guess is we may try to slide by w/ 14.

Hard to imagine that 14th guy being a full MLE signing, which would take us to what $132m+ ??

[BigA]

Assuming we pick up Sheldon's option, with Meeks we'll have 12 players at $98.7m. Then there's Otto, who obviously is going to take a max deal to retain. That gets us to @ $124m & 13 players. At that point, we're already well into the luxury tax.

This year, teams are required to carry 14 players. I'd say smart teams will keep 17, including a couple of 2-way players. But, we're not a smart team, we're a dumb team. So my guess is we may try to slide by w/ 14.

Hard to imagine that 14th guy being a full MLE signing, which would take us to what $132m+ ??

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to get under the tax line by trading Smith and Mack with picks into another team's cap space, then signing several more undrafted guys to get to 14.

They could also wait until the deadline and trade Gortat with the 2019 1st for a cheaper player who they could spin as the "missing piece."

[dckingsfan]

Assuming we pick up Sheldon's option, with Meeks we'll have 12 players at $98.7m. Then there's Otto, who obviously is going to take a max deal to retain. That gets us to @ $124m & 13 players. At that point, we're already well into the luxury tax.

This year, teams are required to carry 14 players. I'd say smart teams will keep 17, including a couple of 2-way players. But, we're not a smart team, we're a dumb team. So my guess is we may try to slide by w/ 14.

Hard to imagine that 14th guy being a full MLE signing, which would take us to what $132m+ ??

We could waive Ochefu. Do vet minimums count against the Luxury tax?

Code: Select all

Player             2017-18   2018-19
Otto Porter        $25,500,000    $25,500,000
Bradley Beal       $23,775,506    $25,434,263
John Wall          $18,063,850    $19,169,800
Ian Mahinmi        $16,661,641    $15,944,154
Marcin Gortat      $12,782,609    $13,565,218
Markieff Morris     $8,000,000     $8,600,000
Jason Smith         $5,225,000     $5,450,000
Jodi Meeks          $3,500,000     $3,500,000
Tomas Satoransky    $3,000,000     $3,129,187
Kelly Oubre         $2,093,040     $3,208,630
Tim Frazier         $2,000,000    
Daniel Ochefu       $1,312,611     $1,544,951
Sheldon Mac         $1,312,611    
Chris McCullough    $1,242,840     $2,243,326
Martell Webster       $830,000       $830,000
Total              $125,299,708    $128,119,529


[payitforward]

Assuming we pick up Sheldon's option, with Meeks we'll have 12 players at $98.7m. Then there's Otto, who obviously is going to take a max deal to retain. That gets us to @ $124m & 13 players. At that point, we're already well into the luxury tax.

This year, teams are required to carry 14 players. I'd say smart teams will keep 17, including a couple of 2-way players. But, we're not a smart team, we're a dumb team. So my guess is we may try to slide by w/ 14.

Hard to imagine that 14th guy being a full MLE signing, which would take us to what $132m+ ??

We could waive Ochefu. Do vet minimums count against the Luxury tax?

Code: Select all

Player             2017-18   2018-19
Otto Porter        $25,500,000    $25,500,000
Bradley Beal       $23,775,506    $25,434,263
John Wall          $18,063,850    $19,169,800
Ian Mahinmi        $16,661,641    $15,944,154
Marcin Gortat      $12,782,609    $13,565,218
Markieff Morris     $8,000,000     $8,600,000
Jason Smith         $5,225,000     $5,450,000
Jodi Meeks          $3,500,000     $3,500,000
Tomas Satoransky    $3,000,000     $3,129,187
Kelly Oubre         $2,093,040     $3,208,630
Tim Frazier         $2,000,000    
Daniel Ochefu       $1,312,611     $1,544,951
Sheldon Mac         $1,312,611    
Chris McCullough    $1,242,840     $2,243,326
Martell Webster       $830,000       $830,000
Total              $125,299,708    $128,119,529


Ochefu wasn't included in my calculation. We have an option on him but haven't picked it up yet.

I have McCullough at $1.44m. Otherwise our math is the same. $124m for 13 guys, $125.3 for 14 if we pick up Ochefu.

I imagine Ernie is trying his best to trade one of Gortat/Mahinmi -- whatever he says publicly.

[NatP4]

so a 3 team deal to move Smith and bring Barton in for a 2nd rounder and no salary retained for Denver is a possibility. That would get us to below the tax line and allow us to then use the full MLE at 8.4 on someone like Patrick Patterson and go into the tax, but make Wall happy picking up his former UK teammate.

that would leave us at 130 million for 13 guys:

Wall Sato Frazier
Beal Barton Meeks Mac
Porter Oubre
Morris Patterson McCullough
Gortat Mahinmi


plenty of depth across the board, relatively young. Ernie has said that they would go into the tax, needs to happen this season.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I don't understand why teams aren't interested in Patrick Patterson. This guy is 9th in RPM for power forwards, 24th in DRPM. Only 27 years old, would love for the wizards to sign him to a 3 year 25 million$ deal. No more Jason Smith at PF Would always have decent spacing with Patterson/Keef on the floor.

If you simply go into next season with Sato/Mac/Oubre/Patterson/Mahinmi 2nd unit, you have 5 guys who were in the top half at their respective positions in DRPM.

We haven't seen a single wizards related rumor regarding a player that would be in that 8 million per range

I'd be on board with this. I'm assuming Wall would be as well, no?

[payitforward]

Do vet minimums count against the Luxury tax?

Good question. I assume they do.

Nate?

[Dat2U]

I don't understand why teams aren't interested in Patrick Patterson. This guy is 9th in RPM for power forwards, 24th in DRPM. Only 27 years old, would love for the wizards to sign him to a 3 year 25 million$ deal. No more Jason Smith at PF Would always have decent spacing with Patterson/Keef on the floor.

If you simply go into next season with Sato/Mac/Oubre/Patterson/Mahinmi 2nd unit, you have 5 guys who were in the top half at their respective positions in DRPM.

We haven't seen a single wizards related rumor regarding a player that would be in that 8 million per range

Your 2nd unit has 3 guys on the perimeter that shoot it @ 23%, 24% & 28% respectively from 3 pt range. How is that supposed to work again?

[nate33]

Do vet minimums count against the Luxury tax?

Good question. I assume they do.

Nate?

Yes, but there is a limit to the amount charged equal to that of a 2-year vet minimum salary. So if you sign a 10-year vet to a vet minimum contract (which pays $2.32M) he only counts against the luxtax as much as a 2-year vet would ($1.47M).

[nate33]

Assuming we pick up Sheldon's option, with Meeks we'll have 12 players at $98.7m. Then there's Otto, who obviously is going to take a max deal to retain. That gets us to @ $124m & 13 players. At that point, we're already well into the luxury tax.

This year, teams are required to carry 14 players. I'd say smart teams will keep 17, including a couple of 2-way players. But, we're not a smart team, we're a dumb team. So my guess is we may try to slide by w/ 14.

Hard to imagine that 14th guy being a full MLE signing, which would take us to what $132m+ ??

They'll be able to save $3-4M by signing Otto to a slightly below-max contract with 7.5% raises and a 5th year guaranteed. Instead of matching a max offer of 4 years $106.75M (starting at $25M), they can pay him 5 years $121M (starting at $21M).

[NatP4]

I don't understand why teams aren't interested in Patrick Patterson. This guy is 9th in RPM for power forwards, 24th in DRPM. Only 27 years old, would love for the wizards to sign him to a 3 year 25 million$ deal. No more Jason Smith at PF Would always have decent spacing with Patterson/Keef on the floor.

If you simply go into next season with Sato/Mac/Oubre/Patterson/Mahinmi 2nd unit, you have 5 guys who were in the top half at their respective positions in DRPM.

We haven't seen a single wizards related rumor regarding a player that would be in that 8 million per range

Your 2nd unit has 3 guys on the perimeter that shoot it @ 23%, 24% & 28% respectively from 3 pt range. How is that supposed to work again?

So sample size doesn't matter here? Mac was a good shooter in college, Sato was a good shooter for Barcelona, Anyone with a brain can see that Oubre projects as a solid shooter and Patterson is a good stretch 4.

Stopping the other team is more important anyways.

[payitforward]

...Mac was a good shooter in college....

He was a great shooter, not good, as a Senior. His TS% was .66. That was in nearly 1200 minutes, btw. As a Junior it was .60. He also shot well in his 2 stints in the D League (but that was a very small sample: @ 230 minutes).

In the NBA, he shot 30 threes & made 7 of them. There's no conclusion of any kind to draw from that. In any case, if you want to take his shooting numbers seriously over those NBA minutes, then at least count the fact that he shot over 51% on two-point attempts. & better than 85% from the line.

His TS% in those 287 minutes, with the bad 3 point shooting, was only slightly below average for an NBA wing. I'd say that is a positive indicator for a rookie not a negative one.

Put it another way: there were 10 rookie SGs in the league last year. 2 of them posted better numbers than McClellan overall. 1 of those 2 guys played a total of 48 minutes.

Now, it's true that Sheldon is 24. He's not going to become anything special. But he's an NBA rotation player, a guy who could have a long career in the league.

I'm still not sure the resident genius will pick up his option, btw.

[payitforward]

I don't understand why teams aren't interested in Patrick Patterson. This guy is 9th in RPM for power forwards, 24th in DRPM. Only 27 years old, would love for the wizards to sign him to a 3 year 25 million$ deal. No more Jason Smith at PF Would always have decent spacing with Patterson/Keef on the floor.

If you simply go into next season with Sato/Mac/Oubre/Patterson/Mahinmi 2nd unit, you have 5 guys who were in the top half at their respective positions in DRPM.

We haven't seen a single wizards related rumor regarding a player that would be in that 8 million per range

You're cherry picking about Patterson, Nat. He doesn't shoot particularly well, & it's not a usage issue since he also doesn't shoot a lot. Yes, his 3pt. % is a bit above average for a PF, but his 2 pt.% is below average. & he never gets to the line, which pulls down his TS% to below average.

So, a below average scorer, to which you can add that he's a way way below average rebounder: 7.5 boards per 40 minutes. For a PF??? That sucks.

In a way, he's a lot like Jason Smith: a below average journeyman. But Smith doesn't cost $8.3m/year, which you would like to give Patterson.

[Meliorus]

I don't understand why teams aren't interested in Patrick Patterson. This guy is 9th in RPM for power forwards, 24th in DRPM. Only 27 years old, would love for the wizards to sign him to a 3 year 25 million$ deal. No more Jason Smith at PF Would always have decent spacing with Patterson/Keef on the floor.

If you simply go into next season with Sato/Mac/Oubre/Patterson/Mahinmi 2nd unit, you have 5 guys who were in the top half at their respective positions in DRPM.

We haven't seen a single wizards related rumor regarding a player that would be in that 8 million per range

You're cherry picking about Patterson, Nat. He doesn't shoot particularly well, & it's not a usage issue since he also doesn't shoot a lot. Yes, his 3pt. % is a bit above average for a PF, but his 2 pt.% is below average. & he never gets to the line, which pulls down his TS% to below average.

So, a below average scorer, to which you can add that he's a way way below average rebounder: 7.5 boards per 40 minutes. For a PF??? That sucks.

In a way, he's a lot like Jason Smith: a below average journeyman. But Smith doesn't cost $8.3m/year, which you would like to give Patterson.

His defensive versatility is important. He is terrific switching onto smaller players.