ImageImageImageImageImage

Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

Moderators: montestewart, LyricalRico, nate33

User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,332
And1: 22,750
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1821 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:35 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
nate33 wrote:I said this type of deal would be possible this summer, not this exact deal.

Basically, the proposed deal is Wall for shorter bad contracts plus Ntilikina (who may or may not be characterized as marginally better than a "bad contract"). It's not a particularly attractive offer for Wall. It's a last resort, desperation type of deal.

The same type of deal could be on the table next summer - Wall for shorter, bad contracts. Next summer, the basis of the deal would be Wall for Lee + Hardaway. That works under the salary cap. It's the same basic concept. I figure it makes more sense then because from the Wizards perspective, if Wall is still here in the summer, it likely means that there weren't any more attractive offers out there. And from the Knicks perspective, they can first see how free agency goes with Durant, and then make this Wall trade as a means of finding a 3rd star to join Durant/Porzingis, or as a means to add a star player to join Porzingis and put butts in seats. (Actually, if they strike out in free agency, they could absorb Wall into their salary and not give up Hardaway if they would prefer to keep him.)

I just think trade talks between these two teams make more sense later once both teams have a better sense of where they are going.


The same kind of offer might be available in the offseason but it's way tougher to make it work the bigger Wall's salary gets. I'm not so sure the Knicks are interested in making that trade without Oubre and with Hardaway instead of Thomas. Hardaway is an awful defender but he's also a reasonably good offensive player who gets dumped on way, too much. That said, if the Knicks strike out in free agency entirely maybe they move Lee and Thomas with cap space for Wall. I'm not so sure there are going to be that many teams lining up to make that kind of trade this offseason as you think. There really aren't that many awful contracts that fit the scale of Wall's. If the Knicks get Durant... maybe. I wouldn't bank on the Knicks getting Durant any more than I'd have banked on the Wizards getting Durant in his previous free agency. The Suns could trade Ryan Anderson and cap space, maybe. The market looks really dry out there, though.


And waiting... it's a bit of a double-edged sword. If things go really wrong for the Wizards this season teams who might trade for Wall might reconsider. Another Wall injury or a bunch of player infighting (not unheard of where Wall is concerned) and teams might decide they're better off without him. And this isn't to say that I think Wall should be moved immediately. The real is dumping Ernie and hiring a competent replacement. I just think overstating the value of the potential return where he's concerned is a recipe for more Ernie-type treadmill shenanigans.

Really, that's the state of Wizards fandom at this point. Waiting for Ernie to be fired is the equivalent of waiting for Godot.

FYI, you might have missed it, but I reconsidered the original Knicks deal and I like it. I didn't place sufficient value on Mitchell Robinson as a prospect, and I didn't realize that Lance Thomas' deal is non-guaranteed so it's effectively an expiring contract.
Ruzious
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 47,909
And1: 11,582
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1822 » by Ruzious » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:55 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:The Clippers might be a target for Wall or Beal - especially considering Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly can play either guard position. The targets for the Wiz would be Jerome Robinson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - both late lotto picks from the last draft - the backcourt of the future - both on the skinny side. Filler would be Avery Bradley - who's having a lousy season. Clipps are full of good players, but they don't have a star attraction.

The Clippers have the best record in the league at the moment. I doubt they'll break that up. At least not right now.

I doulbt anything happens for probably a month or 2. If they do stay at or near the lead (13-6 isn't exactly dominating), that's a reason for them to go all in and pick up a star - while just giving up rookies and a bad veteran.
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
I_Like_Dirt
RealGM
Posts: 36,057
And1: 9,437
Joined: Jul 12, 2003
Location: Boardman gets paid!

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1823 » by I_Like_Dirt » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:56 pm

Fair enough. Yeah, I did miss that bit. I'm not convinced the Knicks are actually going to offer it or even want Wall at this point but they're one of the teams I think might make a play along with the Rockets, Suns, Bulls, Nuggets and maybe the Pelicans. I'm not convinced all of those teams would make offers but they're in positions they might. I don't think any of those teams would be offering a lot. I don't actually think all that highly of Mitchell Robinson as a prospect - not because of anything being wrong with him (he's great) but because the direction the league is headed in is really killing the value of what he brings - but I'd still take a long look at that Knicks offer.

I also do think the Nuggets are a sneaky option. The only issue is they seem to have done an about-face on pace relative the rest of the league, but they're still playing very fast in historical terms. Jokic is basically their point so I'm not sure how Wall would fit there but they could really use a PG and have so many wing prospects that I wouldn't be surprised to see them part with something like Barton and Plumlee for Wall, or something like that. They'd have to move Harris to SF and Murray to SG but they could also go a little smaller by moving guys like Trey Lyles or Juancho to C on some occasions while playing Monte Morris and Malik Beasley. For the Wizards, it's a little different than the traditional bad contracts/rebuilding pieces that people often think of when trading stars and having a tank at the back of their mind but Barton and Plumlee would help the Wizards a lot in terms of actually trying to win post-Wall, if that's a direction they were interested in moving in, and if they weren't, I think they'd find it easier to make individual trades for either of them than they would moving Wall's massive extension.
Bucket! Bucket!
User avatar
FAH1223
RealGM
Posts: 16,316
And1: 7,420
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Location: Laurel, MD
       

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1824 » by FAH1223 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:26 pm

Read on Twitter
Image
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,739
And1: 9,164
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1825 » by payitforward » Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:50 pm

nate33 wrote:Mitchell Robinson.... I just checked his stats and saw that he played just 19 minutes a game and didn't look deeper. I see now that his per minute numbers are strong, and he is very young so I take back my criticisms. He's a legit young prospect and represents the value that makes the deal more than merely a salary dump.... Nevermind then. I like the deal! Of course, queridiculo is probably right in that the Knicks wouldn't include Robinson.

I think they'd be nuts to trade Robinson. That kid doesn't even know how to play the game yet, but he's still putting up some dominating numbers! Zards liked him for us at #15, & Zards was correct!

Blocks, offensive rebounds, steals, doesn't turn the ball over, shooting 64.5%. Man o man....

Good argument can be made that Robinson is the best rookie so far, with Ayton behind him, and Hamidou Diallo -- taken in R2 1 pick after our resident genius nabbed Issuf Sanon -- the 3d best.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,332
And1: 22,750
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1826 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:17 pm

FAH1223 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Interesting that Wall ranks so much ahead of Beal.

Beal scores more with better efficiency and rebounds more. Wall does get more steals but it is offset with the much higher turnover rate. I wonder if Beal is getting dinged by his higher foul rate.

PPA, like most stats, is limited in how it can assess defense. Going by what I've seen so far this year, Beal has been MUCH better than Wall defensively. If Wall ranks slightly higher on offense due to his assists, I'd say Beal easily makes up for it on defense. Beal has been better than Wall this year.
queridiculo
RealGM
Posts: 17,934
And1: 9,313
Joined: Mar 29, 2005
Location: So long Wizturdz.
   

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1827 » by queridiculo » Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:36 pm

nate33 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Interesting that Wall ranks so much ahead of Beal.

Beal scores more with better efficiency and rebounds more. Wall does get more steals but it is offset with the much higher turnover rate. I wonder if Beal is getting dinged by his higher foul rate.

PPA, like most stats, is limited in how it can assess defense. Going by what I've seen so far this year, Beal has been MUCH better than Wall defensively. If Wall ranks slightly higher on offense due to his assists, I'd say Beal easily makes up for it on defense. Beal has been better than Wall this year.


PPA doesn't attempt to assess defense at all to my knowledge

Beal is just slightly better from 3-pt distance at .328 compared to Walls .323, and Beal's higher 2-pt percentage doesn't make up for the assists Wall generates.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,332
And1: 22,750
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1828 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:45 pm

queridiculo wrote:PPA doesn't attempt to assess defense at all to my knowledge

Beal is just slightly better from 3-pt distance at .328 compared to Walls .323, and Beal's higher 2-pt percentage doesn't make up for the assists Wall generates.


Here are their numbers to date:

Image
Shanghai Kid
General Manager
Posts: 9,090
And1: 1,396
Joined: Jun 26, 2003

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1829 » by Shanghai Kid » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:20 pm

Beal doing 56% TS again this season suggests he might not be that 60% TS guy he was in 2017. He's actually only 55% TS for his career.

56% TS isn't bad by any stretch.
Shanghai Kid
General Manager
Posts: 9,090
And1: 1,396
Joined: Jun 26, 2003

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1830 » by Shanghai Kid » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:27 pm

nate33 wrote:
queridiculo wrote:PPA doesn't attempt to assess defense at all to my knowledge

Beal is just slightly better from 3-pt distance at .328 compared to Walls .323, and Beal's higher 2-pt percentage doesn't make up for the assists Wall generates.


Here are their numbers to date:

Image



Did you see the first RPM returns? Wall was 9th amongst point guards but was actually 26th in the league in RPM wins.

I think its been close between Wall and Beal by the numbers, probably just personal preference on who you think is more impactful.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,332
And1: 22,750
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1831 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:40 pm

Shanghai Kid wrote:Beal doing 56% TS again this season suggests he might not be that 60% TS guy he was in 2017. He's actually only 55% TS for his career.

56% TS isn't bad by any stretch.

Possibly. It depends on whether you think that 32% shooting from 3-point range is an aberration or not.

From a standpoint of process over results, Beal is doing the right thing. He is shooting a greater percentage of his shots from the rim, from behind the arc, or from the FT line. And his shooting percentage at the rim is at an all time high. The only problem is his 3P% is way below his career norms. And from watching, I don't think he's forcing up a lot of bad shots. He is simply missing his open looks. I think it's a pretty good bet that he'll bring that number up. If he does so while maintaining his improved shot selection, then I think we will see that TS% number creep back up close to .600.
Shanghai Kid
General Manager
Posts: 9,090
And1: 1,396
Joined: Jun 26, 2003

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1832 » by Shanghai Kid » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:47 pm

nate33 wrote:
Shanghai Kid wrote:Beal doing 56% TS again this season suggests he might not be that 60% TS guy he was in 2017. He's actually only 55% TS for his career.

56% TS isn't bad by any stretch.

Possibly. It depends on whether you think that 32% shooting from 3-point range is an aberration or not.

From a standpoint of process over results, Beal is doing the right thing. He is shooting a greater percentage of his shots from the rim, from behind the arc, or from the FT line. And his shooting percentage at the rim is at an all time high. The only problem is his 3P% is way below his career norms. And from watching, I don't think he's forcing up a lot of bad shots. He is simply missing his open looks. I think it's a pretty good bet that he'll bring that number up. If he does so while maintaining his improved shot selection, then I think we will see that TS% number creep back up close to .600.


Yeah I'm not sure whats up with his 3-PT percentage so far. Its kind of like Wall's free throws where your just like what the hell.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,332
And1: 22,750
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1833 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:57 pm

Shanghai Kid wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Shanghai Kid wrote:Beal doing 56% TS again this season suggests he might not be that 60% TS guy he was in 2017. He's actually only 55% TS for his career.

56% TS isn't bad by any stretch.

Possibly. It depends on whether you think that 32% shooting from 3-point range is an aberration or not.

From a standpoint of process over results, Beal is doing the right thing. He is shooting a greater percentage of his shots from the rim, from behind the arc, or from the FT line. And his shooting percentage at the rim is at an all time high. The only problem is his 3P% is way below his career norms. And from watching, I don't think he's forcing up a lot of bad shots. He is simply missing his open looks. I think it's a pretty good bet that he'll bring that number up. If he does so while maintaining his improved shot selection, then I think we will see that TS% number creep back up close to .600.


Yeah I'm not sure whats up with his 3-PT percentage so far. Its kind of like Wall's free throws where your just like what the hell.


Beal had a pretty slow start from 3PT range last year too. He shot 34.2% over his first 14 games and 35.1% over his first 27 games before finishing off the last 55 games of the season shooting 38.9%.

I think Beal will go on a hot streak pretty soon and get that percentage up close to career norms. That said, it's about time people acknowledge that Beal really isn't THAT great of a shooter. He's good, but not great. These days, what makes him a great SG is his ability to put the ball on the floor, get to the rim, and find the open man. He's one of the better playmaking SG's in the league.
DCZards
RealGM
Posts: 11,149
And1: 4,998
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC
     

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1834 » by DCZards » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:55 pm

nate33 wrote:Beal had a pretty slow start from 3PT range last year too. He shot 34.2% over his first 14 games and 35.1% over his first 27 games before finishing off the last 55 games of the season shooting 38.9%.

I think Beal will go on a hot streak pretty soon and get that percentage up close to career norms. That said, it's about time people acknowledge that Beal really isn't THAT great of a shooter. He's good, but not great. These days, what makes him a great SG is his ability to put the ball on the floor, get to the rim, and find the open man. He's one of the better playmaking SG's in the league.


You're right about Beal's shooting. While he's a good shooter, he is not the great shooter many of us thought he was--or would become. His #s this year, as well as his career #s, confirm that. Although, I too expect his 3pt shooting % to improve over the course of the season so that it ends up in the 37-39% range.

But other aspects of BB's game--defending, putting the ball on the floor, getting to the rim and finishing through contract, and playmaking--have indeed improved from year to year. It's those aspects of Beal's game that makes him the best Zard player, imo. It's also the reason that he's the team's most desirable trade piece. (Of course, it helps that he has the best--and most justifiable--contract.)

However, these are also the reasons that Beal should NOT be the player that's traded. (Unless the Zards get an offer they simply can't and shouldn't refuse.)
80sballboy
RealGM
Posts: 24,152
And1: 5,852
Joined: Jul 15, 2006
       

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1835 » by 80sballboy » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:15 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=21
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,739
And1: 9,164
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1836 » by payitforward » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:23 pm

Ruzious wrote:The Clippers might be a target for Wall or Beal - especially considering Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly can play either guard position. The targets for the Wiz would be Jerome Robinson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - both late lotto picks from the last draft - the backcourt of the future - both on the skinny side. Filler would be Avery Bradley - who's having a lousy season. Clipps are full of good players, but they don't have a star attraction.

I can't see why they'd trade SG-A, & I don't particularly want Robinson. To me he looked way overrated in the draft run-up, & so far he's only earned 40 minutes of PT.

Despite their record, the Clippers are in rebuilding mode & oriented around youth; they've only got 5 guys w/ guaranteed contracts for next year for a total of @$45m -- with half of that going to Gallinari in his expiring season. The other 4 are the 2 rookies, Lou Williams & Harrell.

I can barely imagine them maybe being interested in Beal but not Wall. They have a talented FO (despite picking Robinson), so my guess is that if they're interested in anyone it's more likely to be Porter than the other two. Ernie being incompetent, I imagine he's available.
User avatar
FAH1223
RealGM
Posts: 16,316
And1: 7,420
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Location: Laurel, MD
       

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1837 » by FAH1223 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:24 pm

80sballboy wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21


He wants Ernie gone and knows he ain't winning shid with him as the architect.
Image
RodyTur10
Junior
Posts: 405
And1: 379
Joined: Oct 23, 2017
 

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1838 » by RodyTur10 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:45 pm

Trading Beal and Porter would be the worst possible thing the Wizards could do. They should be the building blocks for your new team. Take a step back for two years by trading Wall (and a couple of role players) for some young talent / draft picks to make another attempt to build a legitimate contender. Possibly the only good thing about your salary structure is that you've got two young (borderline in case of Porter) All Stars locked up for many years.

In many cases a team should choose between going all-in for a title (short term) or go for a full rebuild (long term) and failing to make that choice often leads to mediocrity. But I think that the Wizards are in the position that a short and small rebuild would be their best route. Another factor is that you should always try to do the exact opposite of what the league is doing to find success and I believe that teams have started to become incredibly protective of giving up high draft picks for proven talent. I highly doubt the Wizards would get really good value by selling Beal and Porter.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,739
And1: 9,164
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1839 » by payitforward » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:55 pm

nate33 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Interesting that Wall ranks so much ahead of Beal.

Beal scores more with better efficiency and rebounds more. Wall does get more steals but it is offset with the much higher turnover rate. I wonder if Beal is getting dinged by his higher foul rate.

PPA, like most stats, is limited in how it can assess defense. Going by what I've seen so far this year, Beal has been MUCH better than Wall defensively. If Wall ranks slightly higher on offense due to his assists, I'd say Beal easily makes up for it on defense. Beal has been better than Wall this year.

I have Wall ranked ahead of Beal as well. But, like Kev, I'm using only easily available numbers with a strict & well-defined relationship w/ final scores. It is certainly true that analyzing defense via numbers is very difficult. Among other things, defense causes things not to happen. Things that don't happen don't produce numbers!

I also have Satoransky ranked well above both Beal & Wall, & I have Oubre ranked above Morris.

Obviously, Kev is only ranking players who've played a certain number of minutes or more. So we don't see Bryant or Brown. If we did, I think we'd see them at the top of the list. Why Brown is not playing escapes me.
User avatar
Dark Faze
Head Coach
Posts: 6,476
And1: 2,129
Joined: Dec 27, 2008

Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI 

Post#1840 » by Dark Faze » Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:12 am

80sballboy wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21


Sheridan is a hack, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Return to Washington Wizards