The Consiglieri wrote:Dig into the research. Just look it up, productivity curves, NBA player Primes etc, those kind of searches will let you know. It's true across the board in sports, there are differences in which sports are more forgiving, and which positions are more forgiving, but there hasn't been a study anywhere that suggests that players fail to decline, on average, at age 29-30. It's not rocket science, even us civilians notice it in our bodies. It's a physical reality and nutrition and a workout regimen can only get you so far. Also we may be looking at things differently, I'm looking at productivity curves, efficiency curves, the stuff rotoviz does (wonder if they do it for basketball?). The decline always seems to start right around age 29/30. There does seem to be a bit of a difference w/Guards, w/their curve lasting a bit into their thirties (30-32 depending upon source), but I'm curious about when the decline starts, and it starts around age 29-32, and I think 32 is probably a bit ambitious. Doesn't mean player sucks after his age 29 season, just means declines start then, and get rapidly steeper with each season following that.
Yeah nope, we’re not going to agree on this one at all. Complete difference of opinion here.
Below is a comprehensive study on players age vs performance (and this is from 2014, so it doesn’t include more recent examples like Vince Carter, Manu Ginobili, Kyle Korver, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford who were NBA rotation players well into their late 30s-40s)
GOLDEN AGES OF BASKETBALL PLAYERSWe are seeing that the prime years of guards is 28-32 years old interval. This shows that guards mature a little bit later than other players. The basketball intelligence, ball conservation, court vision, shot mechanics are all skill peculiar mainly to the guards and correlated with experience. On the other hand, per 36 minutes graph indicates another aspect: guards are also very effective at younger ages (23-25) but their playing time are limited comparing to later ages.
I find it comical to suggest that a player such as Bradley Beal will fall off by age 30. Already I provided numerous examples of skilled NBA guards who were still playing at an All-Star level into their 30s. And modern medicine has advanced to the point where pro athlete’s careers are extending much longer than we’ve even seen in the past. Beal in particular has excellent fitness and work ethic even compared to his contemporaries, so his age 26-32 seasons are much more likely to end up on the upper range of the age-productivity curve:
How Bradley Beal became (possibly) the best-conditioned athlete in the NBAAnd the NBA game itself is becoming less physical and more of a finesse game.
A 25yo Bradley Beal perfectly fits the meta of where the modern league is going.. he is a shooter, scores at the rim, proficient in midrange, operates as a PnR ballhandler, scores on cuts, shoots off screens, excellent in transition, is athletic and crafty enough to draw fouls, he can generally hold his own defensively against switches. He maintains peak fitness year-round and just played back-to-back 82 game seasons. Playing in the NBA is going to get even EASIER for him , not harder. We're seeing this effect with players like Curry, Lillard, Harden . They're improving their skillsets with age yes, but also the game is favoring them more . They have more spacing and can create more playmaking chances, it's easier for them to draw FTs on jumpshots etc. Beware of undervaluing Beal's prime years: there's ample evidence that the latter half of Beal's career will exceed projections and his prime will extend beyond what you are anticipating..
Your second paragraph. I just don't understand any of that. How can we rebuild. HOW? You seem to assume we can rebuild while keeping Beal and being totally unable to trade assets to augment whatever lottery pick we land each year. What is that accomplishing? What value is 29-53 to us compared to say 19-63? or 22-60? Why? Beal is the one thing we have that can allow us to kick start our rebuild before 2023, other than Beal, we're totally and completely stuck. When Wall's deal is done, Beal is entering the first season in which players in general start to show decline. During those four years keeping Beal around will harm our lottery odds while not ever allowing us to even come remotely close to competing for anything. Beal represents the keys to chances/opportunities/bullets in our draft gun so so to speak. Again, by the time we have a chance at being competitive, not actually being competitive, he will be 30, and if we aren't picking up assets for him, how are we actually likely to become competitive in the first place? We can't through free agency, we can't through trades (we have no assets that are valued other than our future 1sts which we will need to build with), we can only do it through the draft itself, and considering how many holes we have and how little foundation if any is in place, how in heck does any of that happen w/o trading him? The answer is it doesn't happen.
Wall's injury changed everything for the franchise. Ted Leonsis is not going to tank, rebuild, whatever while he has $40mil/yr going to John Wall. They can't just hide their recovering franchise player in a closet somewhere and pretend he doesn't exist while we tank for randomized draft picks and sell no tickets.. you can't do that for 4 years in a row. It might be a hard pill to swallow for some, but that's the reality of the business-side of professional sports, so adjust your expectations accordingly. There will be no "rebuilding"... what we can do is retool , and set ourselves up for post-Wall years with a prime Beal as the centerpiece.
Washington has TEN open roster spots this offseason.. they're basically retooling the roster anyways, it will look completely different from last year's team. It will take the right person in charge, but I believe a good GM can use the draft, cap exceptions, waiver pickups, trades, and internal development to put together a roster that can be respectable and compete for an East playoff spot around Beal. When Wall is back into the lineup, you assess where things stand from there - if things go really south then maybe at that point they will be forced to trade Beal, sure - but it's far too early to make that determination.
Question: Why do you say Washington can't use free agency or trades? Sounds like parroting things you've heard other people say and you haven't actually looked at our cap sheet:
Why can't they use free agency to add depth these next few years? And why couldn't they retain valuable players (ie Satoransky) and use them as trade assets down the line? Do they not have all of their future first round picks? Can't they buy 2nd rounders as well?
I'd rather be stuck with Beal than lost in the wilderness without him. Beal is a player we can build around and complement, and he will get us through the potentially rough years of Wall's contract. And by summer of 2023 when Wall is off the books, we could have an All-NBA SG + at least 4 young first round prospects + max capspace. Give me your plan that puts us in a better position 4 years from now..
We couldn't come close to a conference final w/the Webber era Wizards or the Arenas Wizards and hell the Wall Wizards failed too. Now all of a sudden w/a Broken down Wall, the few young prospects not named Wall or Beal traded for peanuts or less for cap reasons, and little to no assets beyond Beal and future firsts we're going to contend, or build something? It just strikes me as incredibly absurd to imagine such a thing. In a dire situation like this you ALWAYS sell out your top assets so you can start the rebuild w/something, you don't keep them until they age out, or sign elsewhere and we receive nothing in comp. I just don't get that thinking at all.
Trading Brad doesn't get us any closer to a conference final either. Tell me how we trade Beal and make a ECF within the next 5 years. Go ahead..
Several years ago the Chicago Bulls traded Jimmy Butler, for what most consider now to be a good return. What have they gained since then? What have they done?? They just subjected their fans to a 22-60 season, and thanks to the new lotto odds their reward was ...the 7th pick in the draft. Cam Reddish will really turn things around next year right? IF the Bulls are lucky.. in 2-3 years their team MIGHT be as good as those Butler-led squads that were at least making the playoffs consistently. And they'll realize that they spent 4-5 years just to get back to the same place.
Look man, the Wizards are not a storied franchise - we only have 5 retired jerseys. And at least one player who should be retired but his prime was stolen from us due to injury, and then due to a stupid decision he made became blackballed and can't even be openly recognized by the organization. We had another player who was , and still is a franchise icon, but his prime was also stolen from us due to injury and it's unclear whether his story in DC will go down as a positive one.
In an era where player movement reigns supreme, you have a high-character star player who has been vocal about wanting to stay in DC and build a legacy here, and is even active in recruiting other players here. He has the youth, talent and character to eventually become a franchise leader for us into his 30s, something we haven't truly seen in decades. This isn't a player you trade away for the *hope* at *maybe* having a better team 5 years from now. You keep him for as long as possible, and when he's done playing you put his jersey in the rafters. If it was possible to sign Beal to a 6yr extension through his age 32 season, I would do it TODAY.
Yeah... well you better come up w/ a good GM; that's all I'm sayin' !! 
