Political Roundtable Part XXXII

[pancakes3]

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[Pointgod]

So anyone believe the polling that Biden is collapsing with his base and there’s a historic realignment of black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and women going back to Trump and the Republicans?

[Pointgod]

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[pancakes3]

So anyone believe the polling that Biden is collapsing with his base and there’s a historic realignment of black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and women going back to Trump and the Republicans?

It doesn't take a collapse or realignment though. It just takes about 100k fickle voters in swing states to sit home.

And it really doesn't take much for a young voter or minority voter to be disillusioned.

Biden dangling student loan forgiveness as a carrot for future generations of young voters instead of proposing institutional changes that would make higher education more affordable. People can see through that.

Biden not reacting to the very vocal pro-palestine activists and voters, many of whom are in Michigan.

Biden going forward with the $600 venmo reporting threshold, disproportionately impacting low income gig workers.

[Wizardspride]

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[AFM]

Where do you guys even find this sht-- "meidasnews.com" ??

[dckingsfan]

So anyone believe the polling that Biden is collapsing with his base and there’s a historic realignment of black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and women going back to Trump and the Republicans?

It doesn't take a collapse or realignment though. It just takes about 100k fickle voters in swing states to sit home.

And it really doesn't take much for a young voter or minority voter to be disillusioned.

Biden dangling student loan forgiveness as a carrot for future generations of young voters instead of proposing institutional changes that would make higher education more affordable. People can see through that.

Biden not reacting to the very vocal pro-palestine activists and voters, many of whom are in Michigan.

Biden going forward with the $600 venmo reporting threshold, disproportionately impacting low income gig workers.

With a great deal of respect, this is anecdotal and doesn't take the entire picture into view.

Biden has done well in many areas and not so well in others. If you are going to be a single-issue voter on loan forgiveness vs. not putting structural issues in place that have to be passed by congress and are mostly a local issue. Well then.

If you are pro-palestinian and want to sit home because you think that Trump is going to treat the Palestinians better. Well then.

If you have a problem with financial insitutions reporting venmo and other transactions when the proposed rule changes do not change the taxes you are expected to pay. Well then. As a note, it is called "The Rescue Plan" and it only applies to commercial transactions that are already considered taxable income. Not Venmo transactions between friends for, say, basketball tickets.

All while you have to ignore what Trump wants to do (or nothing in many cases).

It doesn't matter. You are proving the point as to why Biden is going to lose.

Just like folks think that crime is increasing, unemployment is at historic highs, etc., etc..

[Wizardspride]

Where do you guys even find this sht-- "meidasnews.com" ??

Here ya go.

Right from the horse's mouth

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[AFM]

Nice shirt

[Zonkerbl]

So anyone believe the polling that Biden is collapsing with his base and there’s a historic realignment of black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and women going back to Trump and the Republicans?

I haven't been following the polling, you have a source?

Hispanic voters maybe. White women maybe. Black voters? Not so sure.

Epic collapse by the Dems if they lose this November that's for sure. If you can't beat a convicted felon what are we even donating to you for

Here's an interesting article:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/06/18/the-opportunity-for-democrats-to-break-away-from-the-ethnic-identity-headlock/

"SK: We’ve had some time now since the Trump guilty verdict. What are you seeing in the polls?

MM: Trump consistently lost 18 to 21 percent of Republicans from New Hampshire through New Mexico on June 4. That’s a shockingly high number for any nominee. Remember four years ago, Trump lost reelection as an incumbent with 8 percent of Republicans defecting. He’s consistently polling three times that number. The real question was: What was likely to happen with the differential between 8 percent and 18 percent? Who are these new 10 to 12 percent of Republicans who’ve had it? What do they do after the convictions?

There’s been no change in the number of Republicans who are literally getting off the couch on a Tuesday night and driving down to the high school gymnasium to vote for a candidate who dropped out two months ago. That’s a very, very intense sign of opposition. Even though there seems to be some polling tightening, it’s still not nearly enough to fix the problem.

Trump and Biden have very different problems. Trump has an Election Day problem that is not showing up in the polling. Biden has a polling problem that is not showing up on Election Day. If you have to choose between either, you’d rather be Biden. There’s no question that it remains a very significant problem for Trump that not enough Republicans are coming back to support the nominee. Can it be fixed? Sure. But to be in the middle of June with 20 percent of your base saying they’re not with you is a five-alarm problem."

[montestewart]

Nice shirt

I got the “Be Strong and Gay” shirt.

[Pointgod]

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[dobrojim]

So anyone believe the polling that Biden is collapsing with his base and there’s a historic realignment of black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and women going back to Trump and the Republicans?

I haven't been following the polling, you have a source?

Hispanic voters maybe. White women maybe. Black voters? Not so sure.

Epic collapse by the Dems if they lose this November that's for sure. If you can't beat a convicted felon what are we even donating to you for

Here's an interesting article:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/06/18/the-opportunity-for-democrats-to-break-away-from-the-ethnic-identity-headlock/

"SK: We’ve had some time now since the Trump guilty verdict. What are you seeing in the polls?

MM: Trump consistently lost 18 to 21 percent of Republicans from New Hampshire through New Mexico on June 4. That’s a shockingly high number for any nominee. Remember four years ago, Trump lost reelection as an incumbent with 8 percent of Republicans defecting. He’s consistently polling three times that number. The real question was: What was likely to happen with the differential between 8 percent and 18 percent? Who are these new 10 to 12 percent of Republicans who’ve had it? What do they do after the convictions?

There’s been no change in the number of Republicans who are literally getting off the couch on a Tuesday night and driving down to the high school gymnasium to vote for a candidate who dropped out two months ago. That’s a very, very intense sign of opposition. Even though there seems to be some polling tightening, it’s still not nearly enough to fix the problem.

Trump and Biden have very different problems. Trump has an Election Day problem that is not showing up in the polling. Biden has a polling problem that is not showing up on Election Day. If you have to choose between either, you’d rather be Biden. There’s no question that it remains a very significant problem for Trump that not enough Republicans are coming back to support the nominee. Can it be fixed? Sure. But to be in the middle of June with 20 percent of your base saying they’re not with you is a five-alarm problem."

David Ploufe indicated skepticism about minority, specifically Black, support for the GOP saying
he's seen polls like this in the past fall well short of having the impact they would suggest.
Things could be different now. Or not. We'll know in NOV.

[Pointgod]

So anyone believe the polling that Biden is collapsing with his base and there’s a historic realignment of black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters and women going back to Trump and the Republicans?

It doesn't take a collapse or realignment though. It just takes about 100k fickle voters in swing states to sit home.

And it really doesn't take much for a young voter or minority voter to be disillusioned.

Biden dangling student loan forgiveness as a carrot for future generations of young voters instead of proposing institutional changes that would make higher education more affordable. People can see through that.

Biden not reacting to the very vocal pro-palestine activists and voters, many of whom are in Michigan.

Biden going forward with the $600 venmo reporting threshold, disproportionately impacting low income gig workers.

I’m not sure I buy the argument about the collapse of Democratic voters in swing states. Let’s look at each state that decided the election in 2020.

Arizona - Biden won by 10,000 votes
Nevada - Biden won by 34,000 votes
Penn - 80,000 votes
Michigan - 154,000 votes
Georgia - 12,000 votes
Wisconsin - 21,000 votes

What you’re talking about is a collapse of closer to 200,000 to 300,000,000 votes across the 6 battle ground states. Trump has to win 5/6 states while Biden only has to win 4 of the 6 and if he wins Pennsylvania and Michigan I don’t see a path for Trump. And you can’t assume Democratic voters don’t show up but also Republicans won’t also show up as well. You also have to ignore new voters, young voters that have turned 18 the last 4 years.

I’m trying to see where the collapse is supposed to come from. Trump has not expanded his base and his support is actually shrinking. All the issues you mentioned are concerns of people who are really online but they don’t poll at the top of concerns for even young voters

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024

[dobrojim]

Not sure if I already suggested this here but I'm thinking of ads the dems could run:

1. Repeated videos of Golfy saying (re infratstructure) "we'll have something on that in about 2 weeks"
Then show Biden signing the infrastructure bill < 100 days into office.

2. Have Biden in a pool of water and drop a battery into it. Then Biden can stand there
and say, "There isn't enough time between now and Nov to list all the ignorant (or stupid) things
my opponent believes that are simply not true. People who are actually smart don't need to
go around telling people repeatedly about how smart they are."

[Zonkerbl]

I don't think there's a magic ad that Biden can run that will satisfy the always online folks, and the folks who aren't paying attention aren't going to pay attention. Right wing propaganda machine is flooding the zone with **** and the Dems have to do the same, it's not going to be just one thing.

The Dems have plenty of material to work with. If there is a human being who has not been exposed to at least six hours of footage of Jan 6 by the end of this October the Dems have failed. Same amount of exposure for the infrastructure bill but it has to be targeted properly. The dems have to stop campaigning like it's still 1990. You can't just spend tons of money on ads, that's lazy and stupid. Republicans are kicking the dems' butt strategically. Use your money to help people get in front of people, face to face, however that works in 2024.

I agree with Mike Madrid on announcing a housing moon shot, that is a great idea. Particularly because the Republicans sneakily dismantled the mortgage subsidy by making the standard deduction so high that only the top 10% can afford a mortgage that would qualify.

[closg00]

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[Pointgod]

They know Trump’s brain is mush and they are scared of what people will see in the debate. That’s why they’re working overtime with edited clips of Biden

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[closg00]

Fox is dirty and disgusting

[dobrojim]

It's Swift Boating on the cognition issue.

Re my ad suggestions - with any ad, you can't expect miracles. You're just looking
to change a small number on the margains.