Bradley Beal - Part II

[FAH1223]

Right now I am thankful that Beal turned-down our early extension offer, I am certain it was very generous knowing Ernie. I hope Ernie let's Beal walk like Larry Hughes rather than pay him even half a Max players yearly salary.

Or he'll play under the Qualifying Offer.

[nate33]

Right now I am thankful that Beal turned-down our early extension offer, I am certain it was very generous knowing Ernie. I hope Ernie let's Beal walk like Larry Hughes rather than pay him even half a Max players yearly salary.

Or he'll play under the Qualifying Offer.

That would actually be a fantastic alternative, and one that seems plausible for all parties.

As it stands now, Beal can get no better than a 4-year offer from somewhere starting at $20.4M with 4.5% raises (assuming we match a max offer from another team rather than initiate our own offer with 7.5% raises). That's a total of $87M by the year 2020. But let's just assume that nobody offers the max and the best offer on the table starts at roughly $16M. That would total just $68M by the year 2020.

Beal's alternative option would be to take the $7.4M qualifying offer and then hit the free agency market in 2017 when the cap is even higher and even more teams have cap room.

From Beal's perspective, playing for the qualifying offer (and playing well), would mean that he gets paid $7.4M next year. A max deal in 2017 starts at roughly $24.5M If he signs a max deal, he would have totaled $83.9M by 2020, which is just barely less than he would have made if he signed a max deal in 2016, and considerably more than he would have made if he signed anything less than a max deal in 2016.

The other big benefit is that if he takes the qualifying offer, our cap hit would be a paltry $7.4M, giving us cap room for Durant plus another $15M to spare for depth. The timing on this could be difficult, though. Presumably, Beal will spend the first few weeks of free agency seeking a max offer from someplace before opting for the qualifying offer. By the time he arrives at his decision, most of the other good free agents might be locked up. (The Durant bidding wouldn't be affected by this. We could go after Durant assuming Beal's larger $14M cap hold before Beal ever makes his decision.)

FWIW, if Beal takes the qualifying offer, we would still have Bird Rights on him in 2017. We just wouldn't have RFA rights on him and therefore couldn't force him to stay merely by matching other offers.

[J-Ves]

Right now I am thankful that Beal turned-down our early extension offer, I am certain it was very generous knowing Ernie. I hope Ernie let's Beal walk like Larry Hughes rather than pay him even half a Max players yearly salary.

Or he'll play under the Qualifying Offer.

That would actually be a fantastic alternative, and one that seems plausible for all parties.

As it stands now, Beal can get no better than a 4-year offer from somewhere starting at $20.4M with 4.5% raises (assuming we match a max offer from another team rather than initiate our own offer with 7.5% raises). That's a total of $87M by the year 2020. But let's just assume that nobody offers the max and the best offer on the table starts at roughly $16M. That would total just $68M by the year 2020.

Beal's alternative option would be to take the $7.4M qualifying offer and then hit the free agency market in 2017 when the cap is even higher and even more teams have cap room.

From Beal's perspective, playing for the qualifying offer (and playing well), would mean that he gets paid $7.4M next year. A max deal in 2017 starts at roughly $24.5M If he signs a max deal, he would have totaled $83.9M by 2020, which is just barely less than he would have made if he signed a max deal in 2016, and considerably more than he would have made if he signed anything less than a max deal in 2016.

The other big benefit is that if he takes the qualifying offer, our cap hit would be a paltry $7.4M, giving us cap room for Durant plus another $15M to spare for depth. The timing on this could be difficult, though. Presumably, Beal will spend the first few weeks of free agency seeking a max offer from someplace before opting for the qualifying offer. By the time he arrives at his decision, most of the other good free agents might be locked up. (The Durant bidding wouldn't be affected by this. We could go after Durant assuming Beal's larger $14M cap hold before Beal ever makes his decision.)

FWIW, if Beal takes the qualifying offer, we would still have Bird Rights on him in 2017. We just wouldn't have RFA rights on him and therefore couldn't force him to stay merely by matching other offers.

I think in your scenario Beal will take the 16-18 mil/yr deal in 2016. He knows he's injury prone (this stress reaction isn't going away), and he's never really proven to be worth anything close to max.

With that said, I still think a dumb GM will max him and our stupid GM will match.


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[Illmatic12]

Beal will get offered the rookie-scale max from multiple teams, no question.

The vast majority of young players who get that deal nowadays, haven't played at a max level prior to signing the contract. Look at Enes Kanter, or freaking Tristan Thompson. And soon to be Harrison Barnes

He's not doing the QO or any of that, it's going to be the max (because that's what the market will set his value at)

[tontoz]

Beal will get offered the rookie-scale max from multiple teams, no question.

The vast majority of young players who get that deal nowadays, haven't played at a max level prior to signing the contract. Look at Enes Kanter, or freaking Tristan Thompson. And soon to be Harrison Barnes

He's not doing the QO or any of that, it's going to be the max (because that's what the market will set his value at)

Those guys are bigs, not comparable to Beal at all. Wes Matthews signed for 4 years $70 million and he is better than Beal. He had an ORTG of 114 last season and is a better defender.

I would rather just trade Beal at the deadline rather than resign him. Guys like him aren't tough to find.

[Illmatic12]

Beal will get offered the rookie-scale max from multiple teams, no question.

The vast majority of young players who get that deal nowadays, haven't played at a max level prior to signing the contract. Look at Enes Kanter, or freaking Tristan Thompson. And soon to be Harrison Barnes

He's not doing the QO or any of that, it's going to be the max (because that's what the market will set his value at)

Those guys are bigs, not comparable to Beal at all. Wes Matthews signed for 4 years $70 million and he is better than Beal. He had an ORTG of 114 last season and is a better defender.

I would rather just trade Beal at the deadline rather than resign him. Guys like him aren't tough to find.

Read my post again, I'm talking about young players coming off of their rookie contracts. The majority of players that age are offered deals that outpace what they've actually done, because of age.

Beal will get multiple max offers, that's how it goes.

[tontoz]

Beal will get offered the rookie-scale max from multiple teams, no question.

The vast majority of young players who get that deal nowadays, haven't played at a max level prior to signing the contract. Look at Enes Kanter, or freaking Tristan Thompson. And soon to be Harrison Barnes

He's not doing the QO or any of that, it's going to be the max (because that's what the market will set his value at)

Those guys are bigs, not comparable to Beal at all. Wes Matthews signed for 4 years $70 million and he is better than Beal. He had an ORTG of 114 last season and is a better defender.

I would rather just trade Beal at the deadline rather than resign him. Guys like him aren't tough to find.

Read my post again, I'm talking about young players coming off of their rookie contracts. The majority of players that age are offered deals that outpace what they've actually done, because of age.

Beal will get multiple max offers, that's how it goes.

You haven't paid much attention if that is what you think. How many offers from other teams did Tristan get?

The history of restricted free agency is very clear. It is very rare (except for Lebron, KD etc) for a player to get multiple max offers. Many guys don't get any offers from other teams. I bet you can't name one player who got more than 1 max over from another team coming off their rookie contract who wasn't a top tier star.

[nate33]

Those guys are bigs, not comparable to Beal at all. Wes Matthews signed for 4 years $70 million and he is better than Beal. He had an ORTG of 114 last season and is a better defender.

I would rather just trade Beal at the deadline rather than resign him. Guys like him aren't tough to find.

Read my post again, I'm talking about young players coming off of their rookie contracts. The majority of players that age are offered deals that outpace what they've actually done, because of age.

Beal will get multiple max offers, that's how it goes.

You haven't paid much attention if that is what you think. How many offers from other teams did Tristan get?

The history of restricted free agency is very clear. It is very rare (except for Lebron, KD etc) for a player to get multiple max offers. Many guys don't get any offers from other teams. I bet you can't name one player who got more than 1 max over from another team coming off their rookie contract who wasn't a top tier star.

Yeah, the more I think of it, the more the QO is just not plausible. If nothing else, someone would at least offer him a 1+1 deal starting at $12-15M years or so, which would be way better than QO. I guess there's no justification whatsoever for Beal to agree to the qualifying offer.

[Kanyewest]

We arent trading Beal, theres absolutely no way in hell Ted or EG would ever sign off on that. If you post on this board you should know that. He'll be resigned for the max, or close to it.
This talk about him getting 10M a year is ridiculous.

I agree that the team isn't trading Beal, but he's not getting a max offer. You don't give a guy with a history of stress injuries a contract without some form of insurance, and i'm not buying that some "dumb" gm will give him a max offer, essentially forcing the team into a "max or walk" scenario.

Just because there's going to be ass loads of money to throw around this upcoming summer doesn't mean teams are going to be liberal with their risk management assessments.

At least I hope the league/Ernie are not really this stupid.

Do you remember the deal Arenas got?

EG didn't match Larry Hughes who was better than Beal. But I could see the scenario your proposing happening.

[Dark Faze]

I don't really care if he's a 65-70 game a year regular season guy as long he continues to always get back before the playoffs and elevates his play there.

Said it before but I'm more excited about what you can bring to the table in the post season--so it's why I've been less negative about Brad then most.

[Foreva21]

Beal my dude, but watching jrue holiday the last 2 1/2 years go through the similar issues has put me on caution to giving him anything crazy...... he luckily still has youth on his side, but damn there are somethings surgery simply can't fix....

[Illmatic12]

Those guys are bigs, not comparable to Beal at all. Wes Matthews signed for 4 years $70 million and he is better than Beal. He had an ORTG of 114 last season and is a better defender.

I would rather just trade Beal at the deadline rather than resign him. Guys like him aren't tough to find.

Read my post again, I'm talking about young players coming off of their rookie contracts. The majority of players that age are offered deals that outpace what they've actually done, because of age.

Beal will get multiple max offers, that's how it goes.

You haven't paid much attention if that is what you think. How many offers from other teams did Tristan get?

The history of restricted free agency is very clear. It is very rare (except for Lebron, KD etc) for a player to get multiple max offers. Many guys don't get any offers from other teams. I bet you can't name one player who got more than 1 max over from another team coming off their rookie contract who wasn't a top tier star.

Eric Bledsoe got max offers from both the Timberwolves and Suns, that's one recent example.

Most restricted players aren't given multiple offers, if it's made clear that their negotiations are heading towards re-signing at the max with their current teams. If it comes out that the Wiz are going to offer Beal anything less than the max, he's definitely going to get max offers from other teams.

[tontoz]

Read my post again, I'm talking about young players coming off of their rookie contracts. The majority of players that age are offered deals that outpace what they've actually done, because of age.

Beal will get multiple max offers, that's how it goes.

You haven't paid much attention if that is what you think. How many offers from other teams did Tristan get?

The history of restricted free agency is very clear. It is very rare (except for Lebron, KD etc) for a player to get multiple max offers. Many guys don't get any offers from other teams. I bet you can't name one player who got more than 1 max over from another team coming off their rookie contract who wasn't a top tier star.

Eric Bledsoe got max offers from both the Timberwolves and Suns, that's one recent example.

Most restricted players aren't given multiple offers, if it's made clear that their negotiations are heading towards re-signing at the max with their current teams. If it comes out that the Wiz are going to offer Beal anything less than the max, he's definitely going to get max offers from other teams.

Bledsoe didn't get a max deal. 5 years $70 million is well short of a max deal and he didn't sign until late sept. Minny didn't even have the capspace to make an offer at all. They were trying to get a snt deal done.

I can give you Okafor/Iggy/Deng/Ben Gordon(signed QO)/Tristan who got no offers from other teams. Tristan didn't sign until October and also had to take less than the max.

I will make a 3 month avy bet right now that Beal doesn't get a max offer from any team.

[Illmatic12]

You haven't paid much attention if that is what you think. How many offers from other teams did Tristan get?

The history of restricted free agency is very clear. It is very rare (except for Lebron, KD etc) for a player to get multiple max offers. Many guys don't get any offers from other teams. I bet you can't name one player who got more than 1 max over from another team coming off their rookie contract who wasn't a top tier star.

Eric Bledsoe got max offers from both the Timberwolves and Suns, that's one recent example.

Most restricted players aren't given multiple offers, if it's made clear that their negotiations are heading towards re-signing at the max with their current teams. If it comes out that the Wiz are going to offer Beal anything less than the max, he's definitely going to get max offers from other teams.

Bledsoe didn't get a max deal. 5 years $70 million is well short of a max deal and he didn't sign until late sept. Minny didn't even have the capspace to make an offer at all. They were trying to get a snt deal done.

I can give you Okafor/Iggy/Deng/Ben Gordon(signed QO)/Tristan who got no offers from other teams. Tristan didn't sign until October and also had to take less than the max.

I will make a 3 month avy bet right now that Beal doesn't get a max offer from any team.

I'm not making any bet, because there's never a way to officially confirm the reports that come out about contract negotiations.

What we know so far, is that Beal's agent is negotiating a max-level deal and the Wiz were reportedly willing to give it to him. That's what I'm going off of. Both parties are prepared to agree on a 4yr rookie scale max, or at least in that range. So Beal's agent is prepared to use whatever leverage he has at the end of the year, to get a max deal from the Wizards.

[tontoz]

I'm not making any bet, because there's never a way to officially confirm the reports that come out about contract negotiations.

What we know so far, is that Beal's agent is negotiating a max-level deal and the Wiz were reportedly willing to give it to him. That's what I'm going off of. Both parties are prepared to agree on a 4yr rookie scale max, or at least in that range. So Beal's agent is prepared to use whatever leverage he has at the end of the year, to get a max deal from the Wizards.

When a team extends an offer sheet to a free agent it is always reported. Especially a max offer.

Minny never gave an offer sheet to Bledsoe. A team has to actually have enough cap space to give an offer sheet.

Bledsoe and his agent were demanding a max deal but never got one. He even threatened to sign the QO but it was an empty threat.

Bledsoe has made it clear to the Suns and any other team that he was only interested in signing a max contract and otherwise would sign a one-year, $3.7 million qualifying offer with the Suns that would enable him to become an unrestricted free agent next year.

The relationship between Bledsoe and the Suns has eroded over the contract impasse, and the Suns signed free-agent guard Isaiah Thomas to a four-year, $27 million deal in July after drafting guard Tyler Ennis in the first round in June.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11553530/minnesota-timberwolves-offer-eric-bledsoe-max-contract-sign-trade-phoenix-suns

[Illmatic12]

I'm not making any bet, because there's never a way to officially confirm the reports that come out about contract negotiations.

What we know so far, is that Beal's agent is negotiating a max-level deal and the Wiz were reportedly willing to give it to him. That's what I'm going off of. Both parties are prepared to agree on a 4yr rookie scale max, or at least in that range. So Beal's agent is prepared to use whatever leverage he has at the end of the year, to get a max deal from the Wizards.

When a team extends an offer sheet to a free agent it is always reported. Especially a max offer.

Minny never gave an offer sheet to Bledsoe. A team has to actually have enough cap space to give an offer sheet.

Bledsoe and his agent were demanding a max deal but never got one. He even threatened to sign the QO but it was an empty threat.

Bledsoe has made it clear to the Suns and any other team that he was only interested in signing a max contract and otherwise would sign a one-year, $3.7 million qualifying offer with the Suns that would enable him to become an unrestricted free agent next year.

The relationship between Bledsoe and the Suns has eroded over the contract impasse, and the Suns signed free-agent guard Isaiah Thomas to a four-year, $27 million deal in July after drafting guard Tyler Ennis in the first round in June.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11553530/minnesota-timberwolves-offer-eric-bledsoe-max-contract-sign-trade-phoenix-suns

My point is that there are often reports about "so and so team is lining up an offer sheet, or willing to give max offer to ___" before the FA moratorium ends, those reports aren't easy to confirm.

If Beal signs with the Wiz on day 1, there's no way to know confirm who else was going to send him an offer sheet.

[Dark Faze]

He'll likely get a max offer--lots of teams with cap space and the free agent crop is pretty awful:

http://hoopshype.com/2015/12/10/nba-free-agency-2016-the-top-players/

About 90% of what's good there is guys that are going to be kept by their current squad--and like I said above, a Brad that plays 65-70 games a year but is always back to put in his best work in the playoffs is a lot more interesting than most of the stuff on that list.

Yeesh--if we don't land Durant though....not much else going on.

[tontoz]

My point is that there are often reports about "so and so team is lining up an offer sheet, or willing to give max offer to ___" before the FA moratorium ends, those reports aren't easy to confirm.

If Beal signs with the Wiz on day 1, there's no way to know confirm who else was going to send him an offer sheet.

If Beal signs a max deal with the Wizards then you would win the bet. I said he won't get a max offer from any team and that includes the Wizards.

[nate33]

Read my post again, I'm talking about young players coming off of their rookie contracts. The majority of players that age are offered deals that outpace what they've actually done, because of age.

Beal will get multiple max offers, that's how it goes.

You haven't paid much attention if that is what you think. How many offers from other teams did Tristan get?

The history of restricted free agency is very clear. It is very rare (except for Lebron, KD etc) for a player to get multiple max offers. Many guys don't get any offers from other teams. I bet you can't name one player who got more than 1 max over from another team coming off their rookie contract who wasn't a top tier star.

Eric Bledsoe got max offers from both the Timberwolves and Suns, that's one recent example.

Most restricted players aren't given multiple offers, if it's made clear that their negotiations are heading towards re-signing at the max with their current teams. If it comes out that the Wiz are going to offer Beal anything less than the max, he's definitely going to get max offers from other teams.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Eric Bledsoe is considerably better than Bradley Beal. This is a comparison of each player's 4th season:

[sashae]

It's jarring looking at those per/36 #s just how low his FTAs are. So inexplicable.