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Political Roundtable Part VIII

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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1841 » by Daddy 801 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:53 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
AFM wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:I'm getting tired of saying this. Switching to a gold standard is a TERRIBLE idea. Go take an economic history of the United States class. The recessions we had while on the gold and silver standard actually made the Great Depression look mild. Just a terrible, terrible idea proposed by people who have no understanding of economics and no knowledge of our nation's history.

Imagine the economy is a car, and monetary policy is controlled by the steering wheel. Imagine Republican and Democrat in-laws in the back seat constantly screaming for the driver to GO FASTER! GO FASTER!

The solution to this problem is not to shoot the driver, tie a rope to the steering wheel and put a brick on the accelerator, which is what the gold standard does. The solution is to get the driver earplugs so he/she can drive in peace.

This is the last time I'm going to say this. Maybe I'll just bookmark this post and from now on just post a link instead of rehashing the same tiring argument each time.


Have you ever read Rothbard's The Case Against The Fed? It's the one book that really got me into economics as a young lad.
You can buy it for cheap, but I found a PDF copy as well:
https://mises.org/sites/default/files/The%20Case%20Against%20the%20Fed_2.pdf


No but I am a professional economist...

I can tell you this without reading it... if he doesn't explain the game theory behind monetary policy he has no idea what he is talking about.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/85/05/Rational_May1985.pdf


A thread where people are talking about Rothbard on realgm!!?? I love you guys. Rothbard is the man.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1842 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:58 pm

God, I can't believe people are listening to heterodox economists on this thread... Where did I go wrong?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1843 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:03 pm

pineappleheadindc wrote:I'm watching a live Trump press conference in DC and -- he's sounding completely rational to me.

::runs to window to see if it's snowing::

Pine, I gotta give you a ton of credit. You have amazing objectivity when analyzing candidates. You don't let any prejudices from biased media sources influence your opinion.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1844 » by dckingsfan » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:10 pm

hahahahaha!!!!! You made me laugh Pine :)
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1845 » by dckingsfan » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:13 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Actually, no, this is the paper I had in mind:

http://www.wm.tu-berlin.de/fileadmin/fg124/geldtheorie/literatur/barro-gordon-c.pdf

The public is fully aware of the Fed's incentive to cheat and fool us into thinking they can influence the real economy with short run monetary "surprises." Because we're not stupid we come to expect surprises and the Fed is forced to spring surprises on us just to maintain the status quo. Therefore the Fed is actually better off ignoring its ability to manipulate the monetary supply and stick to predictable rules.

Following the rule means adjusting the steering wheel and the acceleration of the car to maintain a constant speed, not tying a rope to the steering wheel, that would be stupid.

But the paper from AFM was talking more about the fact that loose money has a greater regressive effect than most federal policies (and that is saying something). And maintaining a constant speed would be not adding currency to the system. Kind of the same argument but coming in from different directions.

Also, you will like the section where he talks about the Rothbard Loan Bank :)
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1846 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:19 pm

Holy crap! Trump is sounding like Ron Paul on foreign policy! He is aiming to completely realign the foreign policy stance of the GOP. He's talking about scaling out of NATO and Asia. If Trump hasn't yet split the GOP into two completely distinct factions, this ought to complete the job.

Donald Trump outlined an unabashedly noninterventionist approach to world affairs Monday, telling The Washington Post's editorial board that he questions the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has formed the backbone of Western security policies since the Cold War. The meeting at The Post covered a range of issues, including media libel laws, violence at his rallies, climate change, NATO and the U.S. presence in Asia.

Speaking ahead of a major address on foreign policy later Monday in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Trump said he advocates an aggressive U.S. posture in the world with a light footprint. In spite of unrest abroad, especially in the Middle East, Trump said the United States must look inward and steer its resources toward rebuilding domestic infrastructure.

"I do think it’s a different world today, and I don’t think we should be nation-building anymore," Trump said. "I think it’s proven not to work, and we have a different country than we did then. We have $19 trillion in debt. We’re sitting, probably, on a bubble. And it’s a bubble that if it breaks, it’s going to be very nasty. I just think we have to rebuild our country."

He added: "I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’re blown up. We build another one, we get blown up. We rebuild it three times and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education because we can’t build in our own country. At what point do you say, 'Hey, we have to take care of ourselves?' So, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that. But at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially the inner cities."

For the first time, Trump also listed members of a team chaired by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) that is counseling him on foreign affairs and helping to shape his policies: Keith Kellogg, Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, Walid Phares and Joseph E. Schmitz.

Trump praised George P. Shultz, who served as President Ronald Reagan's top diplomat, and was harshly critical of current secretary of state John F. Kerry. He questioned the United States’ continued involvement in NATO and, on the subject of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, said America’s allies are "not doing anything."

"Ukraine is a country that affects us far less than it affects other countries in NATO, and yet we’re doing all of the lifting," Trump said. "They’re not doing anything. And I say: 'Why is it that Germany’s not dealing with NATO on Ukraine? Why is it that other countries that are in the vicinity of Ukraine, why aren’t they dealing? Why are we always the one that’s leading, potentially the third world war with Russia.' "

Trump said that U.S. involvement in NATO may need to be significantly diminished in the coming years, breaking with nearly seven decades of consensus in Washington. "We certainly can’t afford to do this anymore," Trump said, adding later, "NATO is costing us a fortune, and yes, we’re protecting Europe with NATO, but we’re spending a lot of money."

Trump sounded a similar note in discussing the U.S. presence in the Pacific. He questioned the value of massive military investments in Asia and wondered aloud whether the United States still was capable of being an effective peacekeeping force there.

“South Korea is very rich, great industrial country, and yet we’re not reimbursed fairly for what we do," Trump said. "We’re constantly sending our ships, sending our planes, doing our war games — we’re reimbursed a fraction of what this is all costing."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-reveals-foreign-policy-team-in-meeting-with-the-washington-post/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trump-foreign-1pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1847 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:26 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Actually, no, this is the paper I had in mind:

http://www.wm.tu-berlin.de/fileadmin/fg124/geldtheorie/literatur/barro-gordon-c.pdf

The public is fully aware of the Fed's incentive to cheat and fool us into thinking they can influence the real economy with short run monetary "surprises." Because we're not stupid we come to expect surprises and the Fed is forced to spring surprises on us just to maintain the status quo. Therefore the Fed is actually better off ignoring its ability to manipulate the monetary supply and stick to predictable rules.

Following the rule means adjusting the steering wheel and the acceleration of the car to maintain a constant speed, not tying a rope to the steering wheel, that would be stupid.

But the paper from AFM was talking more about the fact that loose money has a greater regressive effect than most federal policies (and that is saying something). And maintaining a constant speed would be not adding currency to the system. Kind of the same argument but coming in from different directions.

Also, you will like the section where he talks about the Rothbard Loan Bank :)


Actually to maintain speed you are continually adding a predictable amount of liquidity to the system in a controlled way, to maintain a predictable price level. Pegging your currency to an asset over whose price you have absolutely no control is the opposite of predictability.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1848 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:28 pm

nate33 wrote:Holy crap! Trump is sounding like Ron Paul on foreign policy! He is aiming to completely realign the foreign policy stance of the GOP. He's talking about scaling out of NATO and Asia. If Trump hasn't yet split the GOP into two completely distinct factions, this ought to complete the job.

Donald Trump outlined an unabashedly noninterventionist approach to world affairs Monday, telling The Washington Post's editorial board that he questions the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has formed the backbone of Western security policies since the Cold War. The meeting at The Post covered a range of issues, including media libel laws, violence at his rallies, climate change, NATO and the U.S. presence in Asia.

Speaking ahead of a major address on foreign policy later Monday in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Trump said he advocates an aggressive U.S. posture in the world with a light footprint. In spite of unrest abroad, especially in the Middle East, Trump said the United States must look inward and steer its resources toward rebuilding domestic infrastructure.

"I do think it’s a different world today, and I don’t think we should be nation-building anymore," Trump said. "I think it’s proven not to work, and we have a different country than we did then. We have $19 trillion in debt. We’re sitting, probably, on a bubble. And it’s a bubble that if it breaks, it’s going to be very nasty. I just think we have to rebuild our country."

He added: "I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’re blown up. We build another one, we get blown up. We rebuild it three times and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education because we can’t build in our own country. At what point do you say, 'Hey, we have to take care of ourselves?' So, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that. But at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially the inner cities."

For the first time, Trump also listed members of a team chaired by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) that is counseling him on foreign affairs and helping to shape his policies: Keith Kellogg, Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, Walid Phares and Joseph E. Schmitz.

Trump praised George P. Shultz, who served as President Ronald Reagan's top diplomat, and was harshly critical of current secretary of state John F. Kerry. He questioned the United States’ continued involvement in NATO and, on the subject of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, said America’s allies are "not doing anything."

"Ukraine is a country that affects us far less than it affects other countries in NATO, and yet we’re doing all of the lifting," Trump said. "They’re not doing anything. And I say: 'Why is it that Germany’s not dealing with NATO on Ukraine? Why is it that other countries that are in the vicinity of Ukraine, why aren’t they dealing? Why are we always the one that’s leading, potentially the third world war with Russia.' "

Trump said that U.S. involvement in NATO may need to be significantly diminished in the coming years, breaking with nearly seven decades of consensus in Washington. "We certainly can’t afford to do this anymore," Trump said, adding later, "NATO is costing us a fortune, and yes, we’re protecting Europe with NATO, but we’re spending a lot of money."

Trump sounded a similar note in discussing the U.S. presence in the Pacific. He questioned the value of massive military investments in Asia and wondered aloud whether the United States still was capable of being an effective peacekeeping force there.

“South Korea is very rich, great industrial country, and yet we’re not reimbursed fairly for what we do," Trump said. "We’re constantly sending our ships, sending our planes, doing our war games — we’re reimbursed a fraction of what this is all costing."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-reveals-foreign-policy-team-in-meeting-with-the-washington-post/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trump-foreign-1pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory


Huh.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1849 » by dckingsfan » Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:55 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Actually, no, this is the paper I had in mind:

http://www.wm.tu-berlin.de/fileadmin/fg124/geldtheorie/literatur/barro-gordon-c.pdf

The public is fully aware of the Fed's incentive to cheat and fool us into thinking they can influence the real economy with short run monetary "surprises." Because we're not stupid we come to expect surprises and the Fed is forced to spring surprises on us just to maintain the status quo. Therefore the Fed is actually better off ignoring its ability to manipulate the monetary supply and stick to predictable rules.

Following the rule means adjusting the steering wheel and the acceleration of the car to maintain a constant speed, not tying a rope to the steering wheel, that would be stupid.

But the paper from AFM was talking more about the fact that loose money has a greater regressive effect than most federal policies (and that is saying something). And maintaining a constant speed would be not adding currency to the system. Kind of the same argument but coming in from different directions.

Also, you will like the section where he talks about the Rothbard Loan Bank :)


Actually to maintain speed you are continually adding a predictable amount of liquidity to the system in a controlled way, to maintain a predictable price level. Pegging your currency to an asset over whose price you have absolutely no control is the opposite of predictability.

Nope, not what he is saying... what he is saying is once you have a stable currency - don't continue to inject more of the currency into the system. Well, you can but the benefits go to the government and bankers and squeeze those that are last on the currency exchange - the blue collar workers if you will. Kind of predicts what is happening right now.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1850 » by FAH1223 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:30 pm

nate33 wrote:Holy crap! Trump is sounding like Ron Paul on foreign policy! He is aiming to completely realign the foreign policy stance of the GOP. He's talking about scaling out of NATO and Asia. If Trump hasn't yet split the GOP into two completely distinct factions, this ought to complete the job.

Donald Trump outlined an unabashedly noninterventionist approach to world affairs Monday, telling The Washington Post's editorial board that he questions the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has formed the backbone of Western security policies since the Cold War. The meeting at The Post covered a range of issues, including media libel laws, violence at his rallies, climate change, NATO and the U.S. presence in Asia.

Speaking ahead of a major address on foreign policy later Monday in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Trump said he advocates an aggressive U.S. posture in the world with a light footprint. In spite of unrest abroad, especially in the Middle East, Trump said the United States must look inward and steer its resources toward rebuilding domestic infrastructure.

"I do think it’s a different world today, and I don’t think we should be nation-building anymore," Trump said. "I think it’s proven not to work, and we have a different country than we did then. We have $19 trillion in debt. We’re sitting, probably, on a bubble. And it’s a bubble that if it breaks, it’s going to be very nasty. I just think we have to rebuild our country."

He added: "I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’re blown up. We build another one, we get blown up. We rebuild it three times and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education because we can’t build in our own country. At what point do you say, 'Hey, we have to take care of ourselves?' So, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that. But at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially the inner cities."

For the first time, Trump also listed members of a team chaired by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) that is counseling him on foreign affairs and helping to shape his policies: Keith Kellogg, Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, Walid Phares and Joseph E. Schmitz.

Trump praised George P. Shultz, who served as President Ronald Reagan's top diplomat, and was harshly critical of current secretary of state John F. Kerry. He questioned the United States’ continued involvement in NATO and, on the subject of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, said America’s allies are "not doing anything."

"Ukraine is a country that affects us far less than it affects other countries in NATO, and yet we’re doing all of the lifting," Trump said. "They’re not doing anything. And I say: 'Why is it that Germany’s not dealing with NATO on Ukraine? Why is it that other countries that are in the vicinity of Ukraine, why aren’t they dealing? Why are we always the one that’s leading, potentially the third world war with Russia.' "

Trump said that U.S. involvement in NATO may need to be significantly diminished in the coming years, breaking with nearly seven decades of consensus in Washington. "We certainly can’t afford to do this anymore," Trump said, adding later, "NATO is costing us a fortune, and yes, we’re protecting Europe with NATO, but we’re spending a lot of money."

Trump sounded a similar note in discussing the U.S. presence in the Pacific. He questioned the value of massive military investments in Asia and wondered aloud whether the United States still was capable of being an effective peacekeeping force there.

“South Korea is very rich, great industrial country, and yet we’re not reimbursed fairly for what we do," Trump said. "We’re constantly sending our ships, sending our planes, doing our war games — we’re reimbursed a fraction of what this is all costing."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-reveals-foreign-policy-team-in-meeting-with-the-washington-post/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trump-foreign-1pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory


If the Republican establishment hate Obama for being "weak", Trump basically is going a step above beyond Obama and saying we're scaling back SIGNIFICANTLY.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1851 » by AFM » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:35 pm

Interesting Zonk. I'll check out that pdf next time I've got some time to kill.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1852 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:37 pm

FAH1223 wrote:
If the Republican establishment hate Obama for being "weak", Trump basically is going a step above beyond Obama and saying we're scaling back SIGNIFICANTLY.

Yup. That would be one way to criticize it.

I think Trump is making a heck of a lot of sense. The way to make our military stronger while also saving a lot of money on the military budget is to scale back the size and scope of the mission. It's easier to simply defend the homeland than it is to be the world's policemen.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1853 » by dckingsfan » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:59 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Huh.

There you go Zonk... you called it - someone had to pull us out of this mess :)
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1854 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 22, 2016 1:02 pm

Sheesh... you combine this with the fact that the Muslim community was hiding the terrorists and there is going to be some backlash. Sigh...

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/europe/brussels-explosions/
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1855 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 22, 2016 1:09 pm

Add - Putin has completely played Obama. He is out of Syria having met his objective.

1) Bashar al-Assad is staying in place
2) Increased the flow of immigrants to Europe
3) Bombed the sh*t out of our underfunded allies
4) Got out without being bogged down as Obama predicted

Going in 1/2 doesn't work. At this point you almost have to agree with Trump. Get in or all the way out - no halfway stuff.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1856 » by nate33 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:01 pm

Is anybody here surprised about the terrorist attacks in Belgium? Anyone at all? Here's another prediction: it's going to happen again. And then it's going to happen again. And again.

The problem is that too large of a percentage of Muslims are radical Muslims. So when you have a lot of Muslims, you will have a lot of radical Muslims. The only solution is to limit the number of Muslims we import.

Brussells and France are probably already lost. When Muslim women have 6 kids and European women have 1.5 kids, the math is brutal. There will eventually be either a civil war, or a complete exodus of native Europeans from those countries. Then those countries will become just like Syria, or, at best, Turkey.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1857 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:10 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:But the paper from AFM was talking more about the fact that loose money has a greater regressive effect than most federal policies (and that is saying something). And maintaining a constant speed would be not adding currency to the system. Kind of the same argument but coming in from different directions.

Also, you will like the section where he talks about the Rothbard Loan Bank :)


Actually to maintain speed you are continually adding a predictable amount of liquidity to the system in a controlled way, to maintain a predictable price level. Pegging your currency to an asset over whose price you have absolutely no control is the opposite of predictability.

Nope, not what he is saying... what he is saying is once you have a stable currency - don't continue to inject more of the currency into the system. Well, you can but the benefits go to the government and bankers and squeeze those that are last on the currency exchange - the blue collar workers if you will. Kind of predicts what is happening right now.


I know what he's saying. He's wrong. That's what "heterodox" means, it's a nice way economists have of saying someone is an idiot.

Gold is not a stable currency. Anyone who claims gold is a stable currency does not understand basic economics - supply and demand. Holding the supply of something constant does not make the price stable if the demand for it is constantly fluctuating with changes in terms of trade, changes in consumer preferences, and advances in technology. I shouldn't even have to explain it - in economics we have an expression for a problem that's so easy to solve we're not even going to bother assigning it as a homework problem, or even bother proving it in class. It's "trivial."
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1858 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:27 pm

Zonk - remove the word gold. Look at the inflationary issues that he describes not his solution. He has those points right. Just because he doesn't have a solution doesn't mean he didn't describe the problem. smh - you would think I was chatting with an English Major :)
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1859 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:29 pm

nate33 wrote:Is anybody here surprised about the terrorist attacks in Belgium? Anyone at all? Here's another prediction: it's going to happen again. And then it's going to happen again. And again.

The problem is that too large of a percentage of Muslims are radical Muslims. So when you have a lot of Muslims, you will have a lot of radical Muslims. The only solution is to limit the number of Muslims we import.

Brussells and France are probably already lost. When Muslim women have 6 kids and European women have 1.5 kids, the math is brutal. There will eventually be either a civil war, or a complete exodus of native Europeans from those countries. Then those countries will become just like Syria, or, at best, Turkey.


Well, I think it is a percentages problem. If the percentages are low enough, then you have immersion. Too high - and you probably have it right. I think this is going to help Trump...
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Re: Political Roundtable Part VIII 

Post#1860 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:33 pm

AFM wrote:Interesting Zonk. I'll check out that pdf next time I've got some time to kill.


Barro is the man. The paper is kind of technical.
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