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Political Roundtable Part XXVI

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1841 » by verbal8 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:12 am

closg00 wrote:Trump only won cause people loathed HRC even more, Bernie would have won the states that Trump
Barely won.


Trump has one political skill, to get people who hate both candidates to vote for him. He also had a historically unpopular opponent.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1842 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:09 am

closg00 wrote:Trump only won cause people loathed HRC even more, Bernie would have won the states that Trump
Barely won.


Yes, people irrationality hated Hilary Clinton. All the head to head polls indicated that Bernie would have done better prior to the election. Bernie wouldn't have simply had to not lose any democratic voters (and may have gained some independents) and he would also have won over the Jill Stein supporters. I think the big factor was that Hillary could have easily won had she not ignored campaigning in swing states like Michigan (her campaign manager ignored the advice of her husband) and nominated a different VP than Kaine.

Sure things could have changed, they could have called Bernie a socialist although they called Hillary a rapist enabler, someone who was racist due to the crime bill, Benghazi. It is simply that Hillary was unfortunately viewed as one of the most unfavorable candidates in presidential history (I believe the only who was more unfavorable was Donald Trump). And unfortunately, Hillary didn't draw many volunteers to her campaign like Obama, maybe due to complacency on the American people.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1843 » by dobrojim » Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:17 pm

Elijah Cummings, dead at 68. RIP.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1844 » by dckingsfan » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:45 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
closg00 wrote:Trump only won cause people loathed HRC even more, Bernie would have won the states that Trump
Barely won.

Yes, people irrationality hated Hilary Clinton. All the head to head polls indicated that Bernie would have done better prior to the election. Bernie wouldn't have simply had to not lose any democratic voters (and may have gained some independents) and he would also have won over the Jill Stein supporters. I think the big factor was that Hillary could have easily won had she not ignored campaigning in swing states like Michigan (her campaign manager ignored the advice of her husband) and nominated a different VP than Kaine.

Sure things could have changed, they could have called Bernie a socialist although they called Hillary a rapist enabler, someone who was racist due to the crime bill, Benghazi. It is simply that Hillary was unfortunately viewed as one of the most unfavorable candidates in presidential history (I believe the only who was more unfavorable was Donald Trump). And unfortunately, Hillary didn't draw many volunteers to her campaign like Obama, maybe due to complacency on the American people.

I think we can agree that Hillary garnered many more votes that Trump.

I think we can agree that Hillary's campaign ignored strategic states - the campaign was complacent.

I think we can agree that was the first election altered by social media and false information.

I think we can agree that Bernie would have needed to beat Hillary in the Democratic primaries to become the candidate - and he wasn't able to do that. I think we can see that Bernie isn't all that either - he is currently 3rd and sinking. He was always only popular with his following.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1845 » by I_Like_Dirt » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:52 pm

Kanyewest wrote:Sure things could have changed, they could have called Bernie a socialist although they called Hillary a rapist enabler, someone who was racist due to the crime bill, Benghazi. It is simply that Hillary was unfortunately viewed as one of the most unfavorable candidates in presidential history (I believe the only who was more unfavorable was Donald Trump). And unfortunately, Hillary didn't draw many volunteers to her campaign like Obama, maybe due to complacency on the American people.


It's easy to create a narrative after the fact without being able to test it. Bernie wasn't popular enough to win the nomination last time and he isn't looking popular enough to win it this time. To make the leap to the point where, if he did get the nomination, he'd win, is a pretty significant logical stretch. It's also easy to say Hillary was unpopular. She was plenty popular and drove lots of votes. She wasn't Obama popular but neither was Bernie.

And yes, there would be stuff to say about Bernie. It doesn't matter what it is or if it's true, people who are looking for a reason not to vote Democrat are going to believe it, at least in part. There will be something on any candidate the Democrats choose to run. There was stuff about Obama - the birther nonsense, etc. That much is absolutely a given. Piling on Hillary is missing the point, really. Expecting Obama levels of popularity is basically like expecting a silver-tongued savior to come along and save everyone rather than holding the people responsible for their own actions.

Responsibility is such a lost concept at this point - personal, corporate, whatever. We love rights but we've basically done everything we can to encourage avoiding responsibilities. Some of it is probably a necessary evil but it doesn't hurt to at least consider the notion and ramifications. Take the justice system, for example. By design the idea is that there are no responsibilities unless your guilt can be proven. And there might be responsibilities even if you're innocent because you can't afford a good lawyer and wind up taking a plea deal to avoid being convicted, or you pay through the nose for a good lawyer which hurts financially. I don't have answers for improving on it so this isn't a suggestion for dramatic change - just more to present the idea that we need to consider these things and start speaking in responsibilities because the lack of such talk is basically doing away with accountability anywhere.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1846 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:57 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
closg00 wrote:Trump only won cause people loathed HRC even more, Bernie would have won the states that Trump
Barely won.

Yes, people irrationality hated Hilary Clinton. All the head to head polls indicated that Bernie would have done better prior to the election. Bernie wouldn't have simply had to not lose any democratic voters (and may have gained some independents) and he would also have won over the Jill Stein supporters. I think the big factor was that Hillary could have easily won had she not ignored campaigning in swing states like Michigan (her campaign manager ignored the advice of her husband) and nominated a different VP than Kaine.

Sure things could have changed, they could have called Bernie a socialist although they called Hillary a rapist enabler, someone who was racist due to the crime bill, Benghazi. It is simply that Hillary was unfortunately viewed as one of the most unfavorable candidates in presidential history (I believe the only who was more unfavorable was Donald Trump). And unfortunately, Hillary didn't draw many volunteers to her campaign like Obama, maybe due to complacency on the American people.

I think we can agree that Hillary garnered many more votes that Trump.

I think we can agree that Hillary's campaign ignored strategic states - the campaign was complacent.

I think we can agree that was the first election altered by social media and false information.

I think we can agree that Bernie would have needed to beat Hillary in the Democratic primaries to become the candidate - and he wasn't able to do that. I think we can see that Bernie isn't all that either - he is currently 3rd and sinking. He was always only popular with his following.


I think moreso Warren would have had a good chance to win in 2016. And she refused to run.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1847 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:04 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Sure things could have changed, they could have called Bernie a socialist although they called Hillary a rapist enabler, someone who was racist due to the crime bill, Benghazi. It is simply that Hillary was unfortunately viewed as one of the most unfavorable candidates in presidential history (I believe the only who was more unfavorable was Donald Trump). And unfortunately, Hillary didn't draw many volunteers to her campaign like Obama, maybe due to complacency on the American people.


It's easy to create a narrative after the fact without being able to test it. Bernie wasn't popular enough to win the nomination last time and he isn't looking popular enough to win it this time. To make the leap to the point where, if he did get the nomination, he'd win, is a pretty significant logical stretch. It's also easy to say Hillary was unpopular. She was plenty popular and drove lots of votes. She wasn't Obama popular but neither was Bernie.

And yes, there would be stuff to say about Bernie. It doesn't matter what it is or if it's true, people who are looking for a reason not to vote Democrat are going to believe it, at least in part. There will be something on any candidate the Democrats choose to run. There was stuff about Obama - the birther nonsense, etc. That much is absolutely a given. Piling on Hillary is missing the point, really. Expecting Obama levels of popularity is basically like expecting a silver-tongued savior to come along and save everyone rather than holding the people responsible for their own actions.

Responsibility is such a lost concept at this point - personal, corporate, whatever. We love rights but we've basically done everything we can to encourage avoiding responsibilities. Some of it is probably a necessary evil but it doesn't hurt to at least consider the notion and ramifications. Take the justice system, for example. By design the idea is that there are no responsibilities unless your guilt can be proven. And there might be responsibilities even if you're innocent because you can't afford a good lawyer and wind up taking a plea deal to avoid being convicted, or you pay through the nose for a good lawyer which hurts financially. I don't have answers for improving on it so this isn't a suggestion for dramatic change - just more to present the idea that we need to consider these things and start speaking in responsibilities because the lack of such talk is basically doing away with accountability anywhere.


Again, Hillary Clinton was one of the most unpopular presidential candidate of all time. Yes Republicans would have called any other candidate bad stuff. But these things stuck to Hillary Clinton because she was the 2nd most unlikable candidate in US History. That's why I don't think they sticked to Obama.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1848 » by I_Like_Dirt » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:55 pm

So the entire problem is Hillary and her unpopularity? I guess we agree to disagree there. Trump was even less popular. He won.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1849 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Hillary Clinton was more unpopular than Mike Dukakis? News to me.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1850 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Hillary Clinton was more unpopular than Mike Dukakis? News to me.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1851 » by Pointgod » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:18 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Sure things could have changed, they could have called Bernie a socialist although they called Hillary a rapist enabler, someone who was racist due to the crime bill, Benghazi. It is simply that Hillary was unfortunately viewed as one of the most unfavorable candidates in presidential history (I believe the only who was more unfavorable was Donald Trump). And unfortunately, Hillary didn't draw many volunteers to her campaign like Obama, maybe due to complacency on the American people.


It's easy to create a narrative after the fact without being able to test it. Bernie wasn't popular enough to win the nomination last time and he isn't looking popular enough to win it this time. To make the leap to the point where, if he did get the nomination, he'd win, is a pretty significant logical stretch. It's also easy to say Hillary was unpopular. She was plenty popular and drove lots of votes. She wasn't Obama popular but neither was Bernie.

And yes, there would be stuff to say about Bernie. It doesn't matter what it is or if it's true, people who are looking for a reason not to vote Democrat are going to believe it, at least in part. There will be something on any candidate the Democrats choose to run. There was stuff about Obama - the birther nonsense, etc. That much is absolutely a given. Piling on Hillary is missing the point, really. Expecting Obama levels of popularity is basically like expecting a silver-tongued savior to come along and save everyone rather than holding the people responsible for their own actions.

Responsibility is such a lost concept at this point - personal, corporate, whatever. We love rights but we've basically done everything we can to encourage avoiding responsibilities. Some of it is probably a necessary evil but it doesn't hurt to at least consider the notion and ramifications. Take the justice system, for example. By design the idea is that there are no responsibilities unless your guilt can be proven. And there might be responsibilities even if you're innocent because you can't afford a good lawyer and wind up taking a plea deal to avoid being convicted, or you pay through the nose for a good lawyer which hurts financially. I don't have answers for improving on it so this isn't a suggestion for dramatic change - just more to present the idea that we need to consider these things and start speaking in responsibilities because the lack of such talk is basically doing away with accountability anywhere.


The Bernie would have bear Trump narrative gets blown out of the water by his current position in the Democratic Primary. Bernie despite having the highest name recognition, the most money, and the DNC changing the rules to his benefits, he’s still third in most polls behind Warren and the male Hillary Clinton.

Also here’s just a sample of the oppo research on Bernie.

The Republicans had major opposition research ready to launch on Bernie Sanders that would have made his numbers drop quickly significantly in the polls. But Bernie was never attacked by Hillary’s team, nor by the GOP. Ask yourself why and the reason is obvious. The GOP wanted to run against Bernie. They knew they had far more volatile stuff to dump on him that the whimpering “emails, emails, emails” chant that had lost all its pizazz. Their strategy was to leave Bernie alone because the better Bernie looked, the worse Hillary looked. Newsweek’s Kurt Eichenwald laid out some of that oppo research and this is what he found:
Here are a few tastes of what was in store for Sanders, straight out of the Republican playbook: He thinks rape is A-OK. In 1972, when he was 31, Sanders wrote a fictitious essay in which he described a woman enjoying being raped by three men. Yes, there is an explanation for it — a long, complicated one, just like the one that would make clear why the Clinton emails story was nonsense. And we all know how well that worked out.
Then there’s the fact that Sanders was on unemployment until his mid-30s, and that he stole electricity from a neighbor after failing to pay his bills, and that he co-sponsored a bill to ship Vermont’s nuclear waste to a poor Hispanic community in Texas, where it could be dumped. You can just see the words “environmental racist” on Republican billboards. And if you can’t, I already did. They were in the Republican opposition research book as a proposal on how to frame the nuclear waste issue.
Also on the list: Sanders violated campaign finance laws, criticized Clinton for supporting the 1994 crime bill that he voted for, and he voted against the Amber Alert system. His pitch for universal health care would have been used against him too, since it was tried in his home state of Vermont and collapsed due to excessive costs. Worst of all, the Republicans also had video of Sanders at a 1985 rally thrown by the leftist Sandinista government in Nicaragua where half a million people chanted, “Here, there, everywhere/the Yankee will die,’’ while President Daniel Ortega condemned “state terrorism” by America. Sanders said, on camera, supporting the Sandinistas was “patriotic.”
The Republicans had at least four other damning Sanders videos (I don’t know what they showed), and the opposition research folder was almost 2-feet thick. (The section calling him a communist with connections to Castro alone would have cost him Florida.) In other words, the belief that Sanders would have walked into the White House based on polls taken before anyone reallyattacked him is a delusion built on a scaffolding of political ignorance.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1852 » by gtn130 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:22 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1853 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:23 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Hillary Clinton was more unpopular than Mike Dukakis? News to me.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/197231/trump-clinton-finish-historically-poor-images.aspx

Maybe they left out Dukakis because it didn't make their headline as exciting? I don't know but that was the news at the time.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1854 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:24 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:So the entire problem is Hillary and her unpopularity? I guess we agree to disagree there. Trump was even less popular. He won.


I think the difference of course is that Trump supporters love Trump. Not as many Hillary supporters love Hillary. Especially among young people. Clinton's especially on social media was bad, worse than Trump/Russia anyways.

EDIT: Whoops meant to say that HRC was one of the most unpopular candidates of all time, my bad
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1855 » by Ruzious » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:04 pm

gtn130 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Great news for coal miners in Pennsylvania. MAGA!

Honestly, that by itself should be enough to impeach him, but there's probably a thousand other things that he's done that's ahead of it. It goes against the foreign emoluments clause in The Constitution. The level of arrogance he has is infinite.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1856 » by I_Like_Dirt » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:08 pm

Kanyewest wrote:I think the difference of course is that Trump supporters love Trump. Not as many Hillary supporters love Hillary. Especially among young people. Clinton's especially on social media was bad, worse than Trump/Russia anyways.

EDIT: Whoops meant to say that HRC was one of the most unpopular candidates of all time, my bad


That's not the difference. There are plenty of Hillary supporters that love Hillary, though many of them are quiet about it for the flak they would otherwise take now. Hillary wasn't actually unpopular until things got underway and the mud started flying. A fair few Democrats were shockingly easily convinced, too, quickly changing their position from Hillary being a decent candidate to being an awful one after a bunch of fabricated hit pieces. People believed Hillary's health was potentially a weakness but not Bernie's and who's the heart attack? Who's the one who's 7 years older? People believed all sorts of stuff that made no sense and then, when they were surprised Hillary lost, they decided she was just a bad/unpopular candidate.

Beyond that, take a look at where Bernie's supporters are right now. They were targeted by misinformation the same way Trump supporters were. There's a huge divide that would have been absolutely easy to prey upon there.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1857 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:16 pm

dckingsfan wrote:I think we can agree that Bernie would have needed to beat Hillary in the Democratic primaries to become the candidate - and he wasn't able to do that. I think we can see that Bernie isn't all that either - he is currently 3rd and sinking. He was always only popular with his following.


This is my only point of disagreement with your above post. Hillary did beat Sanders. But Sanders favorables/unfavorables were better than Hilary Clinton (IIRC no one as high as Sanders who was in the 70s). I had no problem with people who voted for Hillary Clinton if she indeed represented their values. But it was always going to be a more uphill battle for Clinton compared Sanders and probably any other generic candidate, at least that's what some experts were saying prior to the 2016 election.

Ultimately, it was a perfect storm. The states that Hillary needed to win like Michigan and Wisconsin were the ones where Sanders did better than Clinton. Clinton piled up her primary lead in states that ultimately did not matter (Alabama, Texas, California). Not to mention 3rd party candidates like Jill Stein who seemed to draw votes away from Clinton (and may have taken money from Russia).

Overall though, the DNC could have done a better job encouraging more candidates to run. They seemed to treat non-Clinton candidates rather unfairly in the debates which may have discouraged others from entering the debates and the optics were bad with DWS being the head of the DNC, who was Hillary's campaign manager in 2008. Not sure why the Democrats dismissed Howard Dean back in 2008 as the Democrats managed to lose the house, senate, and presidency over the next 8 years.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1858 » by pancakes3 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:26 pm

Ruzious wrote:Honestly, that by itself should be enough to impeach him, but there's probably a thousand other things that he's done that's ahead of it. It goes against the foreign emoluments clause in The Constitution. The level of arrogance he has is infinite.


If this isn't a violation of the emoluments clause, it's hard to imagine what would qualify.

And when I think of the thousand other things that Trump's done, I keep thinking of the Simpsons episode where Burns is diagnosed with a thousand different diseases but not affected by any of them bc they're all crammed at the door.

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1859 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:39 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:I think the difference of course is that Trump supporters love Trump. Not as many Hillary supporters love Hillary. Especially among young people. Clinton's especially on social media was bad, worse than Trump/Russia anyways.

EDIT: Whoops meant to say that HRC was one of the most unpopular candidates of all time, my bad


That's not the difference. There are plenty of Hillary supporters that love Hillary, though many of them are quiet about it for the flak they would otherwise take now. Hillary wasn't actually unpopular until things got underway and the mud started flying. A fair few Democrats were shockingly easily convinced, too, quickly changing their position from Hillary being a decent candidate to being an awful one after a bunch of fabricated hit pieces. People believed Hillary's health was potentially a weakness but not Bernie's and who's the heart attack? Who's the one who's 7 years older? People believed all sorts of stuff that made no sense and then, when they were surprised Hillary lost, they decided she was just a bad/unpopular candidate.

Beyond that, take a look at where Bernie's supporters are right now. They were targeted by misinformation the same way Trump supporters were. There's a huge divide that would have been absolutely easy to prey upon there.



So why nominate someone who people who are not comfortable in defending? Sanders certainly has his flaws, perhaps some bigger than Clinton but people were more willing to support him. BTW, pretty much 75% family supported HRC in the primary's, although it was a 50/50 split with my extended familty.

I think the optics of Clinton's health scare was handled much more poorly than Bernie Sanders. It was worse that it was on video (see Ray Rice) and also it just took a much longer time for Clinton's campaign to come clean. Yes, Sanders heart episode also seemed to have a slow leak aspect to it although at this point he's not in a general election. Clinton had also previously resigned from her role as secretary of state IIRC due to health issues.

If you are implying that Clinton's supporters are more rational, then they would have been more rational than Bernie supporters to vote for Sanders over Trump, right? I think it would have been a stretch to convince Sanders supporters to switch to Trump, but there were policy differences that Trump supported pre-election like being anti-TPP and NAFTA.

2008 also exposed several of Hillary Clinton's flaws. Maybe you are right that there were only small hit pieces prior to the election but in 2008 even Obama said that he would be a better candidate than Hillary because all the Republicans are all targeting her (there is a video clip of this during those debates but at the moment I'm unable to find it). I also think some African Americans may have been insulted by Clinton's handling of that run and may have been less likely to run than Clinton.

And yes, you are right that many of the criticisms are retrospective. Although that only became apparent as some of the news media reported it For instance, how did Hillary Clinton not once visit Michigan during the general election? (Or how come Obama didn't make it clear that Russia was trying to interfere in the election)?

But you are right, Sanders did have his weaknesses which was why he wasn't ultimately able to win the 2016 campaign. I just think it was always clear that HRC was never a strong candidate, just most assumed she would win because they didn't take Trump's campaign seriously.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1860 » by Kanyewest » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:02 pm

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