2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[closg00]

Didn’t know that Edey has only been playing BB for 7 years, interesting takes.

Watch on YouTube

[willbcocks]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

[NatP4]

Had we not given away Gafford, the discussion would be wide open at 2, now we kind of have to take Sarr which is fine, but as a fan I would be pretty excited if we had Gafford and were adding Reed or someone else, then taking a center in another draft. It is hard to imagine Sarr being THAT much better than Ware/Holmes/Edey, and no teams are trying to trade up to get him for what is publicly known.

I follow the thinking, and fit is a major factor in the approach but two points:

Sarr has a unique skill set in comparison to all of the other bigs in the class: the ability to switch 1-5 effectively. Quality production at 18 years old against high level of comp. Long term hypothetical fit next to a Cooper Flagg/Ace Bailey.

Compare Sheppard to the guards potentially available in the trade down/trade Kuzma range: Topic, Dillingham, Collier, Carter, and Simpson. Is a he a long term fit next to Nolan Traore/Hugo Gonzales?

Give me Sarr at #2 and Topic in a Kuzma trade. Redshirt Topic next year, let Sarr put in strength and play a limited role, he’s not going to be very good in year 1. Prioritize the tank. Finish bottom 4 next year.

[nate33]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

True. Claxton had no perimeter shooting proficiency at all and Sarr at least has signs of being a mediocre shooter. (RealGM's stat database has him shooting 27.6% from 3-point range BTW.) But in the NBA, mediocre shooting isn't enough. Being a 32% 3-point shooter on open looks isn't really any better than being a 25% 3-point shooter. In either case, it's a bad shot that the defense will cede.

The question is, does Sarr have the ability to actually be a good 3P shooter? Can he hit 36% from 3-point range with a reasonably short release time? I'm not ruling it out, but I'm a little skeptical. The guy has been jacking up a fairly high volume of 3's for a while now and there hasn't been much improvement.

I'd be much more at ease with the idea of drafting him if I was reasonably sure he'd be really good at just one more thing. I know he'll be a great switch defender, but I need something more. I want him to protect the rim and clean the glass as well as a guy like Capela, or to shoot as well as a guy like Myles Turner. If he does neither, then he is really just a glorified defensive role playing forward like a Jonathan Isaac.

It's possible that he does develop that extra dimension over time. He is still very young, obviously. I just wish it seemed more like a sure thing.

[Frichuela]

Had we not given away Gafford, the discussion would be wide open at 2, now we kind of have to take Sarr which is fine, but as a fan I would be pretty excited if we had Gafford and were adding Reed or someone else, then taking a center in another draft. It is hard to imagine Sarr being THAT much better than Ware/Holmes/Edey, and no teams are trying to trade up to get him for what is publicly known.

I follow the thinking, and fit is a major factor in the approach but two points:

Sarr has a unique skill set in comparison to all of the other bigs in the class: the ability to switch 1-5 effectively. Quality production at 18 years old against high level of comp. Long term hypothetical fit next to a Cooper Flagg/Ace Bailey.

Compare Sheppard to the guards potentially available in the trade down/trade Kuzma range: Topic, Dillingham, Collier, Carter, and Simpson. Is a he a long term fit next to Nolan Traore/Hugo Gonzales?

Give me Sarr at #2 and Topic in a Kuzma trade. Redshirt Topic next year, let Sarr put in strength and play a limited role, he’s not going to be very good in year 1. Prioritize the tank. Finish bottom 4 next year.

Absolutely. This should be priority number 1.

This is why Kuzma should be traded asap and Tyus Jones should be let go if a sign-and-trade is not available.

Let's say hypothetically that we trade Kuzma to SAC for #13+fodder (e.g. Vezenkov + Duarte). And then we pick: Sarr (#2), Carrington (#13), Dadiet (#26). The following rotation should guarantee a bottom 5 finish while giving a ton of minutes to young players (minutes in brackets):

Poole (32)/Carrington (16)
Bilal (32)/Butler (8)/Kispert (8)
Deni (16)/Kispert (16)/Dadiet (16)
Vezenkov (20)/Deni (16)/Sarr (12)
Sarr (20)/Tristan V. (20)/Bagley (8)

[badinage]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

That 30% — that’s in a pro league. That’s not bad at all. Three ticks higher and it’s 33% — I know, I know, easier said than done; BUT, if you believe this player can develop, then it stands to reason his shooting will continue to improve. It doesn’t need to be a weapon. But if he’s eventually making 33%, that’s big. If it climbs to 35% — and combined with his ability to move, and his switchable defense — we have a player who can affect a game at both ends.

[nate33]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

That 30% — that’s in a pro league. That’s not bad at all. Three ticks higher and it’s 33% — I know, I know, easier said than done; BUT, if you believe this player can develop, then it stands to reason his shooting will continue to improve. It doesn’t need to be a weapon. But if he’s eventually making 33%, that’s big. If it climbs to 35% — and combined with his ability to move, and his switchable defense — we have a player who can affect a game at both ends.

It's actually 27.6%

[DCZards]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

That 30% — that’s in a pro league. That’s not bad at all. Three ticks higher and it’s 33% — I know, I know, easier said than done; BUT, if you believe this player can develop, then it stands to reason his shooting will continue to improve. It doesn’t need to be a weapon. But if he’s eventually making 33%, that’s big. If it climbs to 35% — and combined with his ability to move, and his switchable defense — we have a player who can affect a game at both ends.

It's actually 27.6%

According to Basketball Reference, Sarr shot 29.8 on 3s last season.

[tontoz]

According to Basketball Reference, Sarr shot .298 on 3s last season.

Apparently they don't have all the games. I noticed the same thing with Buzelis.

[nate33]

That 30% — that’s in a pro league. That’s not bad at all. Three ticks higher and it’s 33% — I know, I know, easier said than done; BUT, if you believe this player can develop, then it stands to reason his shooting will continue to improve. It doesn’t need to be a weapon. But if he’s eventually making 33%, that’s big. If it climbs to 35% — and combined with his ability to move, and his switchable defense — we have a player who can affect a game at both ends.

It's actually 27.6%

According to Basketball Reference, Sarr shot .298 on 3s last season.

For some reason, Basketball Reference isn't include 6 games that show up in RealGM's stat history. BBreference only lists 24 games. Real GM has 30:

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Alex-Sarr/Summary/162806

[NatP4]

Bball ref probably doesn’t include the playoffs or exhibition games. In 30 total NBL games he shot 27.6% from 3.

Always use Realgm stats over bball ref

[nate33]

Had we not given away Gafford, the discussion would be wide open at 2, now we kind of have to take Sarr which is fine, but as a fan I would be pretty excited if we had Gafford and were adding Reed or someone else, then taking a center in another draft. It is hard to imagine Sarr being THAT much better than Ware/Holmes/Edey, and no teams are trying to trade up to get him for what is publicly known.

I follow the thinking, and fit is a major factor in the approach but two points:

Sarr has a unique skill set in comparison to all of the other bigs in the class: the ability to switch 1-5 effectively. Quality production at 18 years old against high level of comp. Long term hypothetical fit next to a Cooper Flagg/Ace Bailey.

Compare Sheppard to the guards potentially available in the trade down/trade Kuzma range: Topic, Dillingham, Collier, Carter, and Simpson. Is a he a long term fit next to Nolan Traore/Hugo Gonzales?

Give me Sarr at #2 and Topic in a Kuzma trade. Redshirt Topic next year, let Sarr put in strength and play a limited role, he’s not going to be very good in year 1. Prioritize the tank. Finish bottom 4 next year.

Absolutely. This should be priority number 1.

This is why Kuzma should be traded asap and Tyus Jones should be let go if a sign-and-trade is not available.

Let's say hypothetically that we trade Kuzma to SAC for #13+fodder (e.g. Vezenkov + Duarte). And then we pick: Sarr (#2), Carrington (#13), Dadiet (#26). The following rotation should guarantee a bottom 5 finish while giving a ton of minutes to young players (minutes in brackets):

Poole (32)/Carrington (16)
Bilal (32)/Butler (8)/Kispert (8)
Deni (16)/Kispert (16)/Dadiet (16)
Vezenkov (20)/Deni (16)/Sarr (12)
Sarr (20)/Tristan V. (20)/Bagley (8)

I'm in 100% agreement that Tyus should be let go.

I'm totally in a favor of a Kuzma trade, but I'm not in any sort of frantic rush. I don't really believe this team will finish outside of the bottom 4 with or without Kuzma.

I want him moved immediately if we draft another forward or wing because there aren't enough minutes at the 2, 3 and 4 for Deni, Bilal, Kispert, Kuzma and a good draft prospect. But if we end up drafting a PG or C, I'm content to be choosy with Kuzma trades. If that means he isn't moved until the Trade Deadline, I'm okay with it.

Don't get me wrong. If there's a good trade out there right now, we need to jump on it. I'm just saying I wouldn't sell Kuzma at 75 cents on the dollar just because I'm worried about ruining the tank.

[Dat2U]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

True. Claxton had no perimeter shooting proficiency at all and Sarr at least has signs of being a mediocre shooter. (RealGM's stat database has him shooting 28.6% from 3-point range BTW.) But in the NBA, mediocre shooting isn't enough. Being a 32% 3-point shooter on open looks isn't really any better than being a 25% 3-point shooter. In either case, it's a bad shot that the defense will cede.

The question is, does Sarr have the ability to actually be a good 3P shooter? Can he hit 36% from 3-point range with a reasonably short release time? I'm not ruling it out, but I'm a little skeptical. The guy has been jacking up a fairly high volume of 3's for a while now and there hasn't been much improvement.

I'd be much more at ease with the idea of drafting him if I was reasonably sure he'd be really good at just one more thing. I know he'll be a great switch defender, but I need something more. I want him to protect the rim and clean the glass as well as a guy like Capela, or to shoot as well as a guy like Myles Turner. If he does neither, then he is really just a glorified defensive role playing forward like a Jonathan Isaac.

It's possible that he does develop that extra dimension over time. He is still very young, obviously. I just wish it seemed more like a sure thing.

It's not about percentages, it's about the threat. Do teams fear you enough as a shooter to guard on the perimeter? Does his presence open up driving lanes for the opportunity creators?

Anthony Black or Delon Wright don't earn the respect of defenders despite posting solid shooting numbers because the volume is so low and thusly they still hurt spacing.

[NatP4]

It's not about percentages, it's about the threat. Do teams fear you enough as a shooter to guard on the perimeter? Does his presence open up driving lanes for the opportunity creators?

Anthony Black or Delon Wright don't earn the respect of defenders despite posting solid shooting numbers because the volume is so low and thusly they still hurt spacing.

There’s levels to spacing the floor. Sarr is a threat attacking closeouts/off the dribble, passing out of the short roll, and shooting in the mid range.

And there’s no comparison whatsoever between shooting 28% from 3 as an 18 year old in the NBL against pros, and a guy like Castle who shot 26% from 3 in the NCAA on WIDE OPEN looks. 10/41 on unguarded 3s. Teams disregarded him at the NCAA level.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Had we not given away Gafford, the discussion would be wide open at 2, now we kind of have to take Sarr which is fine, but as a fan I would be pretty excited if we had Gafford and were adding Reed or someone else, then taking a center in another draft. It is hard to imagine Sarr being THAT much better than Ware/Holmes/Edey, and no teams are trying to trade up to get him for what is publicly known.

I follow the thinking, and fit is a major factor in the approach but two points:

Sarr has a unique skill set in comparison to all of the other bigs in the class: the ability to switch 1-5 effectively. Quality production at 18 years old against high level of comp. Long term hypothetical fit next to a Cooper Flagg/Ace Bailey.

Compare Sheppard to the guards potentially available in the trade down/trade Kuzma range: Topic, Dillingham, Collier, Carter, and Simpson. Is a he a long term fit next to Nolan Traore/Hugo Gonzales?

Give me Sarr at #2 and Topic in a Kuzma trade. Redshirt Topic next year, let Sarr put in strength and play a limited role, he’s not going to be very good in year 1. Prioritize the tank. Finish bottom 4 next year.

Absolutely. This should be priority number 1.

This is why Kuzma should be traded asap and Tyus Jones should be let go if a sign-and-trade is not available.

Let's say hypothetically that we trade Kuzma to SAC for #13+fodder (e.g. Vezenkov + Duarte). And then we pick: Sarr (#2), Carrington (#13), Dadiet (#26). The following rotation should guarantee a bottom 5 finish while giving a ton of minutes to young players (minutes in brackets):

Poole (32)/Carrington (16)
Bilal (32)/Butler (8)/Kispert (8)
Deni (16)/Kispert (16)/Dadiet (16)
Vezenkov (20)/Deni (16)/Sarr (12)
Sarr (20)/Tristan V. (20)/Bagley (8)

Totally on board with this …

Sarr at 2, Carrington at 13. I like both in terms of upside potential & versatility. Sarr can rotate at the 4 & 5, and Bub can play the 1 & 2 and can backup Poole or play with him.

At 26 I like Dadiet or Cam Christie, and I’d expect one or the other to be available there.


All these guys are young upside picks, this is the draft I’m hoping for.

[NatP4]

NBL 3pt% from recent top picks:

Giddey: 29%
Dieng: 27%
Lamelo: 28%
Hampton: 29%

Sarr: 28%

Sarr also shot 28-32 (87.5%) from the FT line over the 2nd half of the season.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[AFM]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

Oh great. Maybe he'll put his head down and throw a tantrum like Stevie Franchise

[Rafael122]

Troy is plugged in, so unless they get a Godfather offer to move down, these are the two guys we're looking at. Which is what we expected, it's kinda pointless at this point to speculate about anyone else at 2.

[nate33]

Claxton came into the league shooting 52% from the FT line and not shooting any threes. He still doesn't shoot any threes and still has a terrible FT%

Sarr shoots 71% on FTAs, and 30% on 3PA, with not insignificant volume. That's a very different skillset.

True. Claxton had no perimeter shooting proficiency at all and Sarr at least has signs of being a mediocre shooter. (RealGM's stat database has him shooting 28.6% from 3-point range BTW.) But in the NBA, mediocre shooting isn't enough. Being a 32% 3-point shooter on open looks isn't really any better than being a 25% 3-point shooter. In either case, it's a bad shot that the defense will cede.

The question is, does Sarr have the ability to actually be a good 3P shooter? Can he hit 36% from 3-point range with a reasonably short release time? I'm not ruling it out, but I'm a little skeptical. The guy has been jacking up a fairly high volume of 3's for a while now and there hasn't been much improvement.

I'd be much more at ease with the idea of drafting him if I was reasonably sure he'd be really good at just one more thing. I know he'll be a great switch defender, but I need something more. I want him to protect the rim and clean the glass as well as a guy like Capela, or to shoot as well as a guy like Myles Turner. If he does neither, then he is really just a glorified defensive role playing forward like a Jonathan Isaac.

It's possible that he does develop that extra dimension over time. He is still very young, obviously. I just wish it seemed more like a sure thing.

It's not about percentages, it's about the threat. Do teams fear you enough as a shooter to guard on the perimeter? Does his presence open up driving lanes for the opportunity creators?

Anthony Black or Delon Wright don't earn the respect of defenders despite posting solid shooting numbers because the volume is so low and thusly they still hurt spacing.

Agreed. I was trying to make that point when I said he needs to shoot with a reasonably short release time.