Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[DCZards]

I don't doubt that Beal might want out of DC or that he and Beal are not chums...although I think the latter is overstated and is really much ado about nothing. But I think Beal's real issues are with management and the organization's current culture...and that can change with a change of management (starting with EG) and more on court success.

I seriously doubt that the problem is DC or even Beal's relationship with Wall...much less Rivers. BB is smart enough to know that Wall and he are a good on court fit, with the potential to get even better.

Given that Beal is under contract for two more seasons after this one, the Zards have time turn things around and create the kind of environment that would make Beal want to stay in DC.

On the other hand, given that Beal is by far the Zard that other teams would consider trading for, I wouldn't be surprised if he's traded sometime soon. I'd personally hate it though.

I'd be massively disappointed if the Zards took--to steal a line from Dat--2 dimes and a nickel for a quarter in Beal.

[truwizfan4evr]

that chris guy who reported the news is fake news. He's has no credibility and trying to stay relevant, And putting out a clickable story's for his own benefit. Beal don't strike me as a guy who would ask out like that. He made it be known he wants to stay in dc and why not? when he's the number 1 option on this team, there's no way he would want to leave lol

[payitforward]

The Clippers might be a target for Wall or Beal - especially considering Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly can play either guard position. The targets for the Wiz would be Jerome Robinson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - both late lotto picks from the last draft - the backcourt of the future - both on the skinny side. Filler would be Avery Bradley - who's having a lousy season. Clipps are full of good players, but they don't have a star attraction.

I can't see why they'd trade SG-A, & I don't particularly want Robinson. To me he looked way overrated in the draft run-up, & so far he's only earned 40 minutes of PT.

Despite their record, the Clippers are in rebuilding mode & oriented around youth; they've only got 5 guys w/ guaranteed contracts for next year for a total of @$45m -- with half of that going to Gallinari in his expiring season. The other 4 are the 2 rookies, Lou Williams & Harrell.

I can barely imagine them maybe being interested in Beal but not Wall. They have a talented FO (despite picking Robinson), so my guess is that if they're interested in anyone it's more likely to be Porter than the other two. Ernie being incompetent, I imagine he's available.

I disagree with every opinion you gave there. They don't even have a 1st round pick next season next draft, and I don't think there's any chance they're in rebuild mode. They're a very solid team with a lot of depth - and one of the better teams in the West. I don't think it's much of a surprise that they're doing well - though I didn't expect they'd have the best record in the West. They can certainly re-sign their free agents. Again, what they lack is a star player who can take over games, and Wall might very well be a good fit for them because of that - actually a better fit than Beal, imo. Robinson's a good prospect - but he needs to add some strength.

Hey you may be right. We'll see.

OTOH, by my count 11 guys who played for the Clippers last year are no longer with the team. Given that only 5 of their current players are under guaranteed contracts for next year, & that of the 4 guys they have options on, one of them (Bradley) is almost certainly not going to be back, a 2d (Teodosic) has stated that he's going back to Europe next season, & the other 2 (Thornwell & Wallace) are marginal players, I'd say they are a team in transition.

Oh... you know how many guys who were on their team 2 seasons ago are on the Clippers this season? One. Mboute, & that's it. He's played 61 minutes so far this season.

[payitforward]

...perhaps it is indeed true that Beal will leave if EG is still around. Good! I hope Beal lets Ted know it. There's an obvious solution to this problem.

Good thought, nate! I wonder if there's any chance Beal does talk w/ Ted about Grunfeld. I wonder whether Ted would be able to "hear" him.

Interesting idea....

[payitforward]

...I really want to avoid a scenario where we take 2 dimes and a nickle for a quarter in Beal. Most trades I've seen have been of this variety.

Hmmm, I have to think about this!

I'm more worried about the 1 dime & a nickel for a quarter trades Ernie makes!

[payitforward]

I don't doubt that Beal might want out of DC or that he and Beal are not chums...although I think the latter is overstated and is really much ado about nothing. But I think Beal's real issues are with management and the organization's current culture...and that can change with a change of management (starting with EG) and more on court success.

I seriously doubt that the problem is DC or even Beal's relationship with Wall...much less Rivers. BB is smart enough to know that Wall and he are a good on court fit, with the potential to get even better.

Given that Beal is under contract for two more seasons after this one, the Zards have time turn things around and create the kind of environment that would make Beal want to stay in DC.

On the other hand, given that Beal is by far the Zard that other teams would consider trading for, I wouldn't be surprised if he's traded sometime soon. I'd personally hate it though.

I'd be massively disappointed if the Zards took--to steal a line from Dat--2 dimes and a nickel for a quarter in Beal.

We'd better hope we get that much back!

As to Beal <> Rivers -- the latter is an expiring player who won't be back. I doubt that's much of an issue. & anyway, lots of guys stop being "enemies" when they become teammates.

But... nothing will change, nothing at all, unless & until Ernie Grunfeld departs. & we have no indication of that happening.

[payitforward]

Two days we had the unofficial word from inside that "...changes are coming soon, any day now, so stay tuned."

So far, nothing. Not even any juicy rumors, not even groundless juicy rumors!

[Shoe]

Lottery picks are overrated. After looking at the past ten drafts, I surmise that 3/14 selections are in the talent range of a Bradley Beal. If you put a top 1-3 protection on the pick the chance of getting a franchise player drops precipitously. An example is the 2014 draft where you'd only select Embiid (3) over Beal in the entire lottery.



2015: Towns (1) Porzingis (4) Booker (13)

2013: Oladipo (2) McCollum (10) Adams (12)

2012: Davis (1) Beal (3) Lillard (6)

2011: Irving (1) Walker (9) Thompson (11)

2010: Wall (1) Cousins (5) Hayward (9) George (10)

2009: Griffin (1) Harden (3) Curry (7) DeRozan (9)

2008: Rose (1) Westbrook (4) Love (5)

I'll reserve from judging the more recent drafts, but they are shaping up to be similar.

The hype of getting a lottery pick for Beal is overblown, let alone these heavily protected picks. Beal could join some of these players in being the next to switch teams; but it would be lucky if the Wizards with their picks didn't select role players or busts, and really lucky if the Wizards drafted good enough players to routinely make the second round year in and year out. LeBron and Durant both left their original teams to to get rings. Winning in the new NBA requires major FA signings. Even if the Wizards tank and get the next LeBron or Durant, they're still going to have to sign a couple of the best players in the league to win a title. Cleveland won their championship by getting LeBron in FA, not by drafting him.

[NatP4]

why would we ever trade Beal

[nate33]

Winning in the new NBA requires major FA signings. Even if the Wizards tank and get the next LeBron or Durant, they're still going to have to sign a couple of the best players in the league to win a title. Cleveland won their championship by getting LeBron in FA, not by drafting him.

If it's true that winning in the NBA requires major FA signings, then that's all the more reason to blow it up, or at least to trade Wall.

As I've pointed out before, it is impossible to have Wall's contract on the books and also have max contract cap room while still being good enough to attract any max-caliber free agent. It can't be done.

Also, the good thing about lottery picks that you are overlooking is that they're really cheap (capwise) for the first 4 years and the elite players are still cheap in years 5-7. The reason why Golden State could add Durant is the fact that Draymond and Klay were still on relatively cheap 2nd contracts instead of maxed out on their 3rd contract. (Admittedly, it also helped that Curry was on a below-market contract that he signed while having injury issues.) The reason why Boston could add Horford and Hayward was because the rest of their good players were rookie deals and Kyrie was on his 2nd contract. Houston could afford Chris Paul because Capela, their third best player was on a rookie deal making $2M. Basically, being lucky enough to land one of those 3 out of 14 good picks is much better than simply finding an equivalent replacement for Beal. It would be a replacement for Beal at a much cheaper price.

All that said, I agree with you that Beal is really good and merely getting a lottery pick in return for him is likely to be a bad deal for us unless we get lucky with that pick. I'd prefer not to trade Beal and I'd certainly fire Grunfeld and trade Wall before entertaining the notion.

Edit: Oh, and add Drummond to your 2012 list. And PIF will never forgive you if you don't add Porter to your 2013 list.

[Illmatic12]

You don't trade Beal for an unknown lottery pick that could end up being a bust. You trade him for a packaged based around PROVEN young players who are producing on a rookie scale contract or a bargain contract. That gives you the flexibility to reshape the roster structure while remaining competitive in the near future. For example:

Beal to Orlando for Gordon + filler
Beal to Brooklyn for Allen + Dinwiddie + filler
Beal to Sacramento for Hield + Cauley-Stein

etc etc . You cannot trade Beal and get players/assets back that are unknown.

[Dark Faze]

So starting to look at improvement trades now.

One that intrigues me: Justin Holiday of the Bulls for something built around Oubre.

The why for Washington: Buying high on a very solid shooter with length who can take Kelly's spot in the rotation.

The why for Chicago: Justin is having a career year at age 29 as a roleplayer for a tanking team. While he's good for them, he doesn't really fit their timeline. Oubre isn't the better player right now, but he could be a relatively cheap project player with upside that fits their timeline.

I like it for both teams, but could also see Chicago wanting a little more given Oubre's play, but I think the scales would be reasonably balanced--not sure how much more Washington could include without it being an overpay.

[queridiculo]

The Wizards just need to come to terms that there's not a realistic scenario that Oubre will be back with the organization and leverage him for salary cap relief.

I'm a huge advocate of dealing him to absorb the space the Kings have under the salary cap so that the Wizards can avoid repeater status.

[nate33]

The Wizards just need to come to terms that there's not a realistic scenario that Oubre will be back with the organization and leverage him for salary cap relief.

I'm a huge advocate of dealing him to absorb the space the Kings have under the salary cap so that the Wizards can avoid repeater status.

Agreed. Although it may not be sexy from a fan standpoint, I could totally understand management thinking that the best use of an Oubre trade would be to dump massive salary and avoid the luxtax.

The Wizards are $9M over the luxtax threshold right now, resulting in $14.4M in luxtax payments. Simply giving Oubre away would save roughly $2.2M in prorated salary and $3.2M of luxtax dollars. That translates into $8.8M in luxtax savings or a savings of $11M overall.

If they could send out Jason Smith's contract with Oubre, they could escape all $14.4M in luxtax payments while saving over $6M in actual outgoing salaries. That's a savings of $21M.

[pcbothwel]

You don't trade Beal for an unknown lottery pick that could end up being a bust. You trade him for a packaged based around PROVEN young players who are producing on a rookie scale contract or a bargain contract. That gives you the flexibility to reshape the roster structure while remaining competitive in the near future. For example:

Beal to Orlando for Gordon + filler
Beal to Brooklyn for Allen + Dinwiddie + filler
Beal to Sacramento for Hield + Cauley-Stein
Beal to Chc

etc etc . You cannot trade Beal and get players/assets back that are unknown.

Esshhhh... None of those trades are worth it.
- Orlando would need to add value to Gordon...I.E. Pick.
- Same for Nets. Centers simply arent worth that much unless they are Elite.... though I like the framework
- Kings trade is just atrocious. WCS and Hield are nice pieces, but both are the same age as Beal and have 1 or 2 years left on deals.

I like the Nets as a match though. They have two max spots and no reason to assume they would fill them without an overpay, so a Beal trade would be perfect for them.

I hope we stay a away from the Lakers and Ingram. Cant stand him. Skill set is overrated and appears nonchalant. Im done with that "Swaggy P" type vibe for this team. I want Josh Hart... But there is no salary match that really works there.

Still like Harris from Denver. Harris, Barton, and Hernangomez for Beal, Morris, Oubre would be perfect for both teams.

That said, the Hail Mary is Philly. The Celtics look flawed and they know this could be the year with Butler. Trading for Beal accomplishes a number of things for them.
- Great fit and floor spacer that plays both ways.
- Puts them with/above the Raptors, which in turn, could lead to Kawhi going West if the Raps dont make the Finals. Two birds.
- Further entices Butler to stay, but also risk mitigation if he leaves. Could back fill with Kemba or Tobias Harris.

I'd want Patton, Smith, and Fultz. Fultz to 3rd team with protected 1st to us (Korver rumor). Id also want the following picks:
2019: Kings 1st and Bulls 2nd
2021: Miami 1st and Detroit 2nd (2023 Det 2nd too)

Maybe I'm bias because I loved Smith and Patton as prospects, but we'd have two 1st in each of the next 3 drafts along with some high 2nds.

[Dat2U]

that chris guy who reported the news is fake news. He's has no credibility and trying to stay relevant, And putting out a clickable story's for his own benefit. Beal don't strike me as a guy who would ask out like that. He made it be known he wants to stay in dc and why not? when he's the number 1 option on this team, there's no way he would want to leave lol

Beal absolutely wants out but he never formally requested a trade.

[pcbothwel]

The Wizards just need to come to terms that there's not a realistic scenario that Oubre will be back with the organization and leverage him for salary cap relief.

I'm a huge advocate of dealing him to absorb the space the Kings have under the salary cap so that the Wizards can avoid repeater status.

Agreed. Although it may not be sexy from a fan standpoint, I could totally understand management thinking that the best use of an Oubre trade would be to dump massive salary and avoid the luxtax.

The Wizards are $9M over the luxtax threshold right now, resulting in $14.4M in luxtax payments. Simply giving Oubre away would save roughly $2.2M in prorated salary and $3.2M of luxtax dollars. That translates into $8.8M in luxtax savings or a savings of $11M overall.

If they could send out Jason Smith's contract with Oubre, they could escape all $14.4M in luxtax payments while saving over $6M in actual outgoing salaries. That's a savings of $21M.

Agreed... I just dont see how the Kings get better value for their cap space without eating into next years salary. Oubre + (2 of Rivers, Smith, Morris) for a 2nd, filler seems to be too perfect.

[payitforward]

Lottery picks are overrated. After looking at the past ten drafts, I surmise that 3/14 selections are in the talent range of a Bradley Beal....

What's correct about your thinking is that GMs are not able to sequence players to draft with a strong correlation to their productivity (not their "talent"). For that reason, you are right that any R1 pick from 15-30 is as valuable as a pick from 4-14.

But, it's more radical than that. E.g.

Although Kyrie Irving (#1) is a terrific player, I'd a lot rather have Kawhi (#15) & Butler (#30) out of the 2011 draft.

For that matter either Etwaun Moore (#55) or Isaiah Thomas (#60) would have been a much better pick than Jimmer Fredette (#10).

@ 5 guys taken from 21-36 in 2008 have had better NBA careers overall than Derrick Rose, who went #1.

The 4 guys taken from #38-41 in 2014 have all been substantially better than 4 of the top 5 picks that year.

So, an intelligent GM would rather have the #20 pick in 2 drafts in a row than #10 pick in one of those drafts.

...If you put a top 1-3 protection on the pick the chance of getting a franchise player drops precipitously. An example is the 2014 draft where you'd only select Embiid (3) over Beal in the entire lottery.

But, what's incorrect about your thinking is that, for example, 3 of the 6 guys picked from #35-40 in 2012, when Beal went #3, have been as good or better NBA players than Brad.

Which means that there is no reason to stop the logic at the lottery. E.g., that same intelligent GM would be smart to take two #30 picks over 1 #20 pick in a deal.

In short, it's not draft pick that are over-rated, it's GMs. Hence...

...The hype of getting a lottery pick for Beal is overblown, let alone these heavily protected picks...

...misses the point. It's multiple picks that are valuable. Take a look at Boston & Philly for the supporting stories.

...Winning in the new NBA requires major FA signings.

By "winning" you must mean winning a title, since e.g. the Raptors, Celtics & Sixers won a lot of games last year w/o a major FA playing any minutes. But, that's not our problem -- that we can't win a title. Our problem is that we can't even look like we are competing for a title. We aren't even contending to be the EC champion. We can't win 50 games. We can't be good.

In any case, your claim is false: GS won in '15 w/o major FA signings, ditto SA in '14 & the Mavs in '11. Though of course, however you get him, adding a terrific player makes your team better. Duh.

[payitforward]

That said, the Hail Mary is Philly. ...Trading for Beal accomplishes a number of things for them.
- Great fit and floor spacer that plays both ways.
- Puts them with/above the Raptors, which in turn, could lead to Kawhi going West if the Raps dont make the Finals. Two birds.
- Further entices Butler to stay, but also risk mitigation if he leaves. Could back fill with Kemba or Tobias Harris.

I'd want Patton, Smith, and Fultz. Fultz to 3rd team with protected 1st to us (Korver rumor). Id also want the following picks:
2019: Kings 1st and Bulls 2nd
2021: Miami 1st and Detroit 2nd (2023 Det 2nd too)

Maybe I'm bias because I loved Smith and Patton as prospects, but we'd have two 1st in each of the next 3 drafts along with some high 2nds.

You want to give Beal. In return you want to get:

Justin Patton
Zhaire Smith
the Kings 2019 R1 pick
the Bulls 2019 R2 pick
protected R1 pick in 2020 (via Fultz)
Miami's unprotected 2021 R1 pick
Detroit's 2021 R2 pick (owned by Philly)
Detroit's 2023 R2 pick (also owned by Philly)

Wow.... I love an optimist!

[Illmatic12]

You don't trade Beal for an unknown lottery pick that could end up being a bust. You trade him for a packaged based around PROVEN young players who are producing on a rookie scale contract or a bargain contract. That gives you the flexibility to reshape the roster structure while remaining competitive in the near future. For example:

Beal to Orlando for Gordon + filler
Beal to Brooklyn for Allen + Dinwiddie + filler
Beal to Sacramento for Hield + Cauley-Stein
Beal to Chc

etc etc . You cannot trade Beal and get players/assets back that are unknown.

Esshhhh... None of those trades are worth it.
- Orlando would need to add value to Gordon...I.E. Pick.
- Same for Nets. Centers simply arent worth that much unless they are Elite.... though I like the framework
- Kings trade is just atrocious. WCS and Hield are nice pieces, but both are the same age as Beal and have 1 or 2 years left on deals.

I like the Nets as a match though. They have two max spots and no reason to assume they would fill them without an overpay, so a Beal trade would be perfect for them.

I hope we stay a away from the Lakers and Ingram. Cant stand him. Skill set is overrated and appears nonchalant. Im done with that "Swaggy P" type vibe for this team. I want Josh Hart... But there is no salary match that really works there.

Still like Harris from Denver. Harris, Barton, and Hernangomez for Beal, Morris, Oubre would be perfect for both teams.

That said, the Hail Mary is Philly. The Celtics look flawed and they know this could be the year with Butler. Trading for Beal accomplishes a number of things for them.
- Great fit and floor spacer that plays both ways.
- Puts them with/above the Raptors, which in turn, could lead to Kawhi going West if the Raps dont make the Finals. Two birds.
- Further entices Butler to stay, but also risk mitigation if he leaves. Could back fill with Kemba or Tobias Harris.

I'd want Patton, Smith, and Fultz. Fultz to 3rd team with protected 1st to us (Korver rumor). Id also want the following picks:
2019: Kings 1st and Bulls 2nd
2021: Miami 1st and Detroit 2nd (2023 Det 2nd too)

Maybe I'm bias because I loved Smith and Patton as prospects, but we'd have two 1st in each of the next 3 drafts along with some high 2nds.

My thought process was simply to provide the framework of a deal with different teams. I didn't go through the effort of fine-tuning, but obviously future picks and salary filler would be added as needed.

The problem with trades like what you proposed is that the Wizards are getting unproven assets. Smith and Patton are unproven ,and highly injury-prone to boot. That Kings pick probably isn't even gonna be top 8, and the 2021 Miami pick is whatever. Beal is a guaranteed All-Star level talent who's young and under contract. You don't want to trade that kind of asset for a gamble or unproven assets that could bust.

Aaron Gordon, Jarrett Allen, Buddy Hield are examples of PROVEN quality young starters with upside, who won't kill your cap sheet. The Wizards would do well to target players like Gordon, Josh Richardson, Jamal Murray, Myles Turner, etc as the starting point for a Beal package.