Political Roundtable Part XXVII

[Ruzious]

I absolutely encourage people to vote for Warren if they think she's the best candidate. Yell at Bloomberg to drop out if you feel inclined, but Warren absolutely is allowed to still be in the race.

I think she is taking more votes from Bernie than from Biden, fwiw.

Absolutely Warren should stay in it. She's earned it at least as much as the other candidates. Let's at least wait till she really has no chance before comparing her to Ralph Nader or Jill Stein.

538 gives her a .1% chance of getting a plurality of delegates. I suppose neither Ralph Nader or Jill Stein never had that much of a chance of getting the presidency.

More importantly, you can make a wager on betonline.com getting 3,300/1 odds. Bovada has it at 5,000/1. I'm gonna be rich!

[Pointgod]

I sympathize with the group of Dems who want this election basically to be about whether you want an ahole as President or a nice guy. I think that's what all our lizard brains dislike about Trump - he's a lying, arrogant, bully. He's unlikeable. Biden is likeable. That's why there's a sense if you put Biden up against Trump people's good nature will prevail and Trump will get trounced.

Put Bernie up against Trump and it's a referendum on what kind of ahole you want to be President, one who swings for your team or the other team. That's a riskier proposition and a much easier problem to solve for Trump.

Look at Biden's "flubs." Do *any* of them involve him mocking a disabled reporter, or bragging about sexually assaulting women? Every time Biden messes up it just draws attention to how different his personality is from Trump's.

For all the talk about the Democratic Party being diverse and a broad coalition, it’s amazing that the two leading candidates are two, very old white men(Bloomberg is a joke that shouldn’t even be acknowledged). There’s definitely something broken about politics and the way that candidates are covered that needs to be changed.

At the end of the day it’s going to be two old septuagenarians yelling at each other for the Presidency. I get that Bernie energizes his base but so many of his supporters refuse to acknowledge that some people are tired of the divisiveness and constant fighting. Bernie has shown that this won’t change, and him as President just means that he’ll continue to fight his own party.

Although Bernie is also the first Jewish candidate that has a viable chance of winning this large in the primary.

By the way, I don't think nominating Joe will end the fighting either(you could make a case it would be less) . For instance, I talked to moderate democrat who is likely to support Biden who was bashing Bernie/Warren/Castro.

I don’t know man. There’s only one candidate left saying that they’re going to go to war with the party after he’s the nominee. I’ve only seen Bernie supporters (although Reddit and the internet are not the best representative sample) say that they’ll sit out of their candidate doesn’t get the nomination. The other candidates haven’t indicated that they’ll go scorched earth if these lose or will fight the Democratic Party when the focus should be on Republicans.

[Kanyewest]

Absolutely Warren should stay in it. She's earned it at least as much as the other candidates. Let's at least wait till she really has no chance before comparing her to Ralph Nader or Jill Stein.

538 gives her a .1% chance of getting a plurality of delegates. I suppose neither Ralph Nader or Jill Stein never had that much of a chance of getting the presidency.

More importantly, you can make a wager on betonline.com getting 3,300/1 odds. Bovada has it at 5,000/1. I'm gonna be rich!

Wow, we were both doing the same thing!

I can't believe Hillary has less of a payout than Warren.

[Pointgod]

There are a couple posts in my Facebook feed who are going to be voting for Warren today. That being said , it feels like throwing away your vote (ie Nader or Jill Stein) in what is probably going to be a head to head against between Biden/Sanders.

If I had to guess more than half of the Warren supporters I know may end up supporting Biden (although that probably doesn't bear out in a national average). I also think people who have either Sanders or Biden as a close second are probably going to vote for that candidate on Super Tuesday.

Warren absolutely should not drop out before Super Tuesday. Especially with Pete and Amy dropping she becomes viable. She’s still polling well in a lot of States and her delegate count will probably go even higher. Her goal isn’t to get a plurality but to keep herself in the running in the case there’s a contested convention. The most important thing is that she still has a ton of money. If she belly flops today then she has to make a hard decision. That being said people should vote for who they want not for some strategic reason, especially since it’s a primary. So Warren voters should absolutely vote for her. The person I want to see absolutely fall flat on his face is Bloomberg. He’s an ****, Democrats don’t like him and he’s straight up just trying to buy the election.

[Zonkerbl]

Dow flatlining again despite pretty huge interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Maybe what the market really needs is a strong, coordinated response to the coronavirus

Or maybe my hypothesis about Trump's co-conspirator billionaires propping up the market to hide the damage done by the idiot trade war is true. When in doubt, I vote for me.

[Kanyewest]

There are a couple posts in my Facebook feed who are going to be voting for Warren today. That being said , it feels like throwing away your vote (ie Nader or Jill Stein) in what is probably going to be a head to head against between Biden/Sanders.

If I had to guess more than half of the Warren supporters I know may end up supporting Biden (although that probably doesn't bear out in a national average). I also think people who have either Sanders or Biden as a close second are probably going to vote for that candidate on Super Tuesday.

Warren absolutely should not drop out before Super Tuesday. Especially with Pete and Amy dropping she becomes viable. She’s still polling well in a lot of States and her delegate count will probably go even higher. Her goal isn’t to get a plurality but to keep herself in the running in the case there’s a contested convention. The most important thing is that she still has a ton of money. If she belly flops today then she has to make a hard decision. That being said people should vote for who they want not for some strategic reason, especially since it’s a primary. So Warren voters should absolutely vote for her. The person I want to see absolutely fall flat on his face is Bloomberg. He’s an ****, Democrats don’t like him and he’s straight up just trying to buy the election.

You could be right. Things can drastically change.
Then again
- She is polling 10 points behind both Bernie and Biden in the RealClearPolitics average
- Amy and Pete along with Beto have already endorsed Biden
- Bloomberg is somehow outpolling Warren nationally (sigh)
- Voters may be following the national polls and won't vote with their heart but rationally


On the other hand
- Warren could get if it is brokered convention. People may see Warren as fair compromise to Bernie and/or Biden. However, the scenario that would likely have to play out is that Biden (or even Bernie) is not in the significant plurality
of voters.
- Biden really does poorly largely due to Bloomberg and Warren does well enough.
- Maybe the Mayor Pete/Amy vote go to her.

My gut is telling me Warren doesn't have a chance. That being said, if Warren somehow emerges from Super Tuesday as a favorite, I won't mind since she is one of the most impressive candidates left.

[dobrojim]

FWIW, I cast my VA dem primary vote for Warren today.

Rest assured I will not be sitting out the general in the likely event she is not the nominee.

Maybe Bernie will attract enough new voters to win if he's the nominee which seems likely
given he may handily win CA and TX. If it's Biden, maybe enough moderates and others disgusted
by Trump will carry him to the WH. Obviously, I'm concerned.

Edit - given the relatively unimportant nature of this particular primary vote,
while walking across the street from my house to the polling place, I briefly
contemplated voting in the GOP primary for Weld. But as many of you know,
that was not an option. GOP didn't want that.

In case you don't know, in VA, you don't register for either party so
if there had been a GOP primary, I would have only had to affirm that
I would vote for their nominee in the general to participate in their primary.
At least that's the way it used to be. No one asked me to affirm I would
vote dem in order to vote in the dem primary.

[Pointgod]

There are a couple posts in my Facebook feed who are going to be voting for Warren today. That being said , it feels like throwing away your vote (ie Nader or Jill Stein) in what is probably going to be a head to head against between Biden/Sanders.

If I had to guess more than half of the Warren supporters I know may end up supporting Biden (although that probably doesn't bear out in a national average). I also think people who have either Sanders or Biden as a close second are probably going to vote for that candidate on Super Tuesday.

Warren absolutely should not drop out before Super Tuesday. Especially with Pete and Amy dropping she becomes viable. She’s still polling well in a lot of States and her delegate count will probably go even higher. Her goal isn’t to get a plurality but to keep herself in the running in the case there’s a contested convention. The most important thing is that she still has a ton of money. If she belly flops today then she has to make a hard decision. That being said people should vote for who they want not for some strategic reason, especially since it’s a primary. So Warren voters should absolutely vote for her. The person I want to see absolutely fall flat on his face is Bloomberg. He’s an ****, Democrats don’t like him and he’s straight up just trying to buy the election.

You could be right. Things can drastically change.
Then again
- She is polling 10 points behind both Bernie and Biden in the RealClearPolitics average
- Amy and Pete along with Beto have already endorsed Biden
- Bloomberg is somehow outpolling Warren nationally (sigh)
- Voters may be following the national polls and won't vote with their heart but rationally


On the other hand
- Warren could get if it is brokered convention. People may see Warren as fair compromise to Bernie and/or Biden. However, the scenario that would likely have to play out is that Biden (or even Bernie) is not in the significant plurality
of voters.
- Biden really does poorly largely due to Bloomberg and Warren does well enough.
- Maybe the Mayor Pete/Amy vote go to her.

My gut is telling me Warren doesn't have a chance. That being said, if Warren somehow emerges from Super Tuesday as a favorite, I won't mind since she is one of the most impressive candidates left.

You can take comfort in the fact that after today Sanders is probably going to have a huge delegate lead. Biden’s surge came too late. I think I heard that 40% of ballots in California have been cast before Super Tuesday. Bernie probably won’t get the majority heading into the convention but if he’s leading delegates with let’s say 45% and the next candidate has 20% then there’s no way you can’t hand the nomination to him. Hell Warren staying in might help put him over the top instead of Bloomberg or Biden trading delegates between each other. Warren is only viable if there’s a 35, 30, 25 split in the delegates. All this is to say that Bernie is in a great position but his supporters shouldn’t get over confident and treat it like a coronation.

[Pointgod]

And while Democrats are fighting and arguing against each other Republicans are actually rigging the election. I remember Kingsfan talking about the low voter turnout in Texas, I’m sure this contributes. Listen everyone needs to support the nominee no matter who it is. Not just lip service but donate, volunteer, and campaign. Trump and the Republicans are going to cheat, the only thing that will get a Democratic win is if voters turn up in huge numbers and are fully united behind the Democratic Party.

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting

The closures could exacerbate Texas’s already chronically low voter turnout rates, to the advantage of incumbent Republicans. Ongoing research by University of Houston political scientists Jeronimo Cortina and Brandon Rottinghaus indicates that people are less likely to vote if they have to travel farther to do so, and the effect is disproportionately greater for some groups of voters, such as Latinxs.

[Kanyewest]

Bloomberg and Tulsi picking up delegates in American Samoa.

[Kanyewest]

Biden making a huge comeback tonight in the south.

[MJ7]

I thought Bernie had it in the bag. Shows what I know!

[Pointgod]

I thought Bernie had it in the bag. Shows what I know!

Anyone that thought that this wasn’t going to be some sort of contested convention hasn’t been paying any attention. Bernie still has his California firewall but Biden is going to cut into the lead. Congrats on Mike Bloomberg for crushing American Samoa, you **** shmuck.

[queridiculo]

It's this time of the year again, so a reminder of just how much the GOP believes in our democracy.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/27/alabama-voting-rights-alfonzo-tucker

In 2018, with the midterm elections approaching, Alfonzo Tucker Jr was particularly eager to vote. The mayor of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, Tucker’s hometown, was running for governor, and the year before he had canvassed for Doug Jones, a Democrat running in a closely watched US Senate race.

But Tucker wasn’t able to cast a ballot – state officials refused to even let him register. It wasn’t until weeks later that he learned why he had been deprived of the right to vote.

He owed the state $4.

Of course we all know, voter suppression isn't a thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/03/02/voter-suppression-is-a-key-part-of-the-gops-electoral-strategy/
https://wsiltv.com/2020/03/03/gop-backed-voter-photo-id-bill-passes-kentucky-house/
https://americanindependent.com/gop-voter-suppression-2020-election-donald-trump-republicans-10-million-dollars-michigan/
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/brian-kemp-enjoyed-suppressing-votes.html

[Wizardspride]

Bernie.....

Read on Twitter

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[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[Pointgod]

So the youth vote that Bernie was banking on didn’t turn out. This kind of hurts his whole electability argument because the path he chose was to turn out the youth and new voters.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/04/super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-youth-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/

Exit polls for five southern states that Biden won – Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia – found that young voters did not show up at the polls in the numbers they did in 2016.

[MJ7]

Biden also does better with older black voters which helps in the South.

[Zonkerbl]

Whooh boy what a night. So Bernie's slacker youth vote slacked off and cost him the nomination, because the *only* reason to support him is he might bring the youth vote out. Well, looks like he won't. Black vote overwhelmingly supporting Biden, so my "well I'd be ok with him if he can get ex-union votes *and* black votes" is toast as well.

Stick a fork in him - Bernie's done.

Looks Biden and his "look how cuddly I am" approach is exactly what everybody wants, even if his policy positions SUUUUUUCK - the stock market is going to rise today because Wall Street is so relieved to have Biden as the nominee instead of Bernie, particularly healthcare companies (uuuuuuugh)

[I_Like_Dirt]

Looks Biden and his "look how cuddly I am" approach is exactly what everybody wants, even if his policy positions SUUUUUUCK - the stock market is going to rise today because Wall Street is so relieved to have Biden as the nominee instead of Bernie, particularly healthcare companies (uuuuuuugh)

I don't love Biden's policy positions compared to some of the other candidates but he's at least arguably better on the environment than candidates like Buttigieg (weirdly, since he cast himself as the young candidate who had a reason to care about the future), Yang, Gabbard and Klobuchar were/are. There are positives with Biden. Bernie's inability to bend even a little bit as the situation requires seems to have once again cost him.