Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

wewillnevertank · Post #1861 » by **wewillnevertank** » Thu Oct 5, 2023 5:13 pm

payitforward wrote:Is Anthony Gill even mentioned in any post in this thread? If so, I didn't notice.

Yes.

payitforward · Post #1862 » by **payitforward** » Thu Oct 5, 2023 9:08 pm

It'll be an enormous plus if Rollins works out well. Say the same about PBJ.

If those two guys both turn out to be solid NBA players, the fact would make this off season look absolutely great.

doclinkin · Post #1863 » by **doclinkin** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 12:07 am

wewillnevertank wrote:
payitforward wrote:Is Anthony Gill even mentioned in any post in this thread? If so, I didn't notice.

Yes.

He's for sure been mentioned by every young player on the team. I was certain he'd be one of the cuts to drop us to 15, but hearing all the superlatives on his mentorship etc, I dunno. Hell, seeing Johnny Davis' hideous form on his jumpshot, I maybe have him as a dark horse candidate for a roster cut. A guard who can't shoot is not an asset in this league, and he's the opposite sort of prospect that this front office tends to draft in the various places they've been. He was taken by the last guy, so they may not be as invested in his potential or upside. Dunno.

payitforward · Post #1864 » by **payitforward** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 8:57 am

That's harsh about Johnny Davis, doc -- I hope it doesn't turn out that way, tho of course it may.

Post #1865 » by **nate33** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 1:23 pm

There's no chance they dump the #10 pick in the 2022 draft so they can retain a 31-year-old 3rd stringer forward.

doclinkin · Post #1866 » by **doclinkin** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 2:32 pm

nate33 wrote:There's no chance they dump the #10 pick in the 2022 draft so they can retain a 31-year-old 3rd stringer forward.

Yeah you're right. I do wonder about how long the fuse is on Johnny D. Seems to me the Thunder looked for athletic upside talents more than undersized and scrappy over achievers. Me I'm always looking for improvement from JD, since that was how he made a mark at the lower level. To see him still pushing the ball at the hoop from chin level was surprising. That shot is broke broke broken.

Post #1867 » by **nate33** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 3:30 pm

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:There's no chance they dump the #10 pick in the 2022 draft so they can retain a 31-year-old 3rd stringer forward.

Yeah you're right. I do wonder about how long the fuse in on Johnny D. Seems to me the Thunder looked for athletic upside talents more than undersized and scrappy over achievers. Me I'm always looking for improvement from JD, since that was how he made a mark at the lower level. To see him still pushing the ball at the hoop from chin level was surprising. That shot is broke broke broken.

Yeah, I'm not too excited about Johnny D's long term prospects either. But I figure they'll at least give him this year to see if there's improvement. It's worth noting that, as a rookie scale contract, his final 2 years are non-guaranteed. It wouldn't be that surprising if they gave him the Jalen Smith treatment.

mhd · Post #1868 » by **mhd** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 3:36 pm

nate33 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:There's no chance they dump the #10 pick in the 2022 draft so they can retain a 31-year-old 3rd stringer forward.

Yeah you're right. I do wonder about how long the fuse in on Johnny D. Seems to me the Thunder looked for athletic upside talents more than undersized and scrappy over achievers. Me I'm always looking for improvement from JD, since that was how he made a mark at the lower level. To see him still pushing the ball at the hoop from chin level was surprising. That shot is broke broke broken.

Yeah, I'm not too excited about Johnny D's long term prospects either. But I figure they'll at least give him this year to see if there's improvement. It's worth noting that, as a rookie scale contract, his final 2 years are non-guaranteed. It wouldn't be that surprising if they gave him the Jalen Smith treatment.

Yeah, I know I'm the resident Davis hater on this board, but this regime didn't draft him. Bilal is the priority for development. Shamet has a valuable contract that is tradeable at any instant (this year, or next).

We have 96 minutes to allot for our lineup. Poole will get 36 MPG at least IMO. Tyus (28 min) & Wright (20 min) get all the PG minutes (Poole could also play it as well). Kispert will also get some PT at SG. I'd rather have Bilal get some of those 12 minutes at SG vs Davis considering Kispert, Deni, and Bilal get all of the SF minutes. Still, I figure Davis has to fight for the non-Poole SG minutes (which is roughly 12 MPG).

AFM · Post #1869 » by **AFM** » Fri Oct 6, 2023 11:22 pm

Everyone in this thread knows Davis is bound for overseas. I'm sorry, but we all know it's true. Take away his draft position and the fact that hes a Wizard, hard to imagine having any optimism. Happy to be proven wrong of course.

wewillnevertank · Post #1870 » by **wewillnevertank** » Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:20 pm

AFM wrote:Everyone in this thread knows Davis is bound for overseas. I'm sorry, but we all know it's true. Take away his draft position and the fact that hes a Wizard, hard to imagine having any optimism. Happy to be proven wrong of course.

I thought he looked a lot better in Summer League than he did last summer. He's looked decent in the little bit of training camp scrimmage tape the team has shown, too. Will he ever live up to the lottery pick hype? Probably not. But I can see an 8-to-10-year pro if he cleans up the shot, continues to improve defensively and expands his playmaking ability.

Post #1871 » by **nate33** » Tue Oct 10, 2023 9:17 pm

wewillnevertank wrote:
AFM wrote:Everyone in this thread knows Davis is bound for overseas. I'm sorry, but we all know it's true. Take away his draft position and the fact that hes a Wizard, hard to imagine having any optimism. Happy to be proven wrong of course.

I thought he looked a lot better in Summer League than he did last summer. He's looked decent in the little bit of training camp scrimmage tape the team has shown, too. Will he ever live up to the lottery pick hype? Probably not. But I can see an 8-to-10-year pro if he cleans up the shot, continues to improve defensively and expands his playmaking ability.

Those are big ifs though.

Mostly, he has to improve his shot - like, a lot. He has the defensive chops to be a above-average at that end of the floor, but he is going to be a liability on offense unless he can knock down the 3 with a relatively quick release. He is a lot like Deni Avdija in this regard, except Avdija has the size to switch 1 through 4 and even cover a 5 in a pinch. Deni's versatility makes him the most valuable type of defender there is, so one can more readily overlook his offensive weaknesses.

NatP4 · Post #1872 » by **NatP4** » Wed Oct 11, 2023 12:38 am

AFM wrote:Everyone in this thread knows Davis is bound for overseas. I'm sorry, but we all know it's true. Take away his draft position and the fact that hes a Wizard, hard to imagine having any optimism. Happy to be proven wrong of course.

This is a dumb take that I completely disagree with. Just wanna be very clear on the record.

There’s just a ton of people rooting for their own egos on this board. Usually the same people who get just about everything wrong about the draft and player development/projection.

payitforward · Post #1873 » by **payitforward** » Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:42 am

Save the negativity for when it's needed, guys....

We are, in essence, starting over -- & it's about time too. All the surprises will be positive....

NatP4 · Post #1874 » by **NatP4** » Thu Oct 12, 2023 5:11 pm

payitforward wrote::) Save the negativity for when it's needed, guys....

We are, in essence, starting over -- & it's about time too. All the surprises will be positive....

Biggest surprise of all would be this (justifiably) miserable fanbase making a course correction on Johnny Davis.

He’s looked very good since Feb of his rookie season and is an exciting young player. The overseas comment is laughable.

payitforward · Post #1875 » by **payitforward** » Thu Oct 12, 2023 5:36 pm

NatP4 wrote:
payitforward wrote::) Save the negativity for when it's needed, guys....

We are, in essence, starting over -- & it's about time too. All the surprises will be positive....

Biggest surprise of all would be this (justifiably) miserable fanbase making a course correction on Johnny Davis....

I can't imagine why you think so, Nat. If he puts up good numbers we'll all be supportive.

NatP4 wrote:He’s looked very good since Feb of his rookie season and is an exciting young player. The overseas comment is laughable.

Can you support that with NBA numbers? What were his shooting percentages in NBA games over the last couple of months odf the season, for example?

Edit -- I just looked at Johnny's numbers in March & April of '22-23. He went 60-153 -- a .392 FG%.

That's not a criticism, it's just a fact.

wewillnevertank · Post #1876 » by **wewillnevertank** » Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:24 pm

Read on Twitter

My case for not trading Delon right away. Feedback welcome

gesa2 · Post #1877 » by **gesa2** » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:06 pm

Ironic that you quoted a post on X to share your thoughts!

Halcyon · Post #1878 » by **Halcyon** » Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:36 pm

JD has not looked "very good" he's looked like he's a below average NBA player instead of a guy who should be playing overseas. I hope his jumper comes around, but it still looks like a heavy work in progress. He's pretty good on defense but doesn't really do anything that well on offense. That's a recipe for being out of the league in a hurry.

popper · Post #1879 » by **popper** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:05 am

Is Jared Butler better than Johnny Davis? And is Ryan Rollins better than both of them?

pancakes3 · Post #1880 » by **pancakes3** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:04 pm

I had some time so I tried to do some armchair moneyballing for my upcoming fantasy basketball league (H2H categories) and according to my arbitrary chickenscratching, Corey Kispert is the 120th most draftable player, making him the projected Mr. Irrelevant in our 10-round draft (roster is 14 spots)

players are assigned +2 pts for being a top 48 player, +1 pts for being a top 84 player, 0 pts for being between 84 and 120, and -1 points for being below 120. I reversed it for Turnovers with you being a +2 player if you're below the top 120 in TO's last season.

Poole and Kuz are in the same tier as Dame and Jrue, net +8 players.

Dame is a major net positive (top 48 player) for FGM, FTM, 3PM, Pts, and Assists, neutral for rebounds and steals, and a net negative for blocks and turnovers (net +8)

Pool is a major net positive for FGM, FTM, 3PM, Pts, and Assists, net positive for steals, and a net negative for rebounds, blocks and turnovers (net +8).

Kuz is a major net positive for FGM, 3PM, and Pts, a net positive for FTM and assists, neutral for blocks, and a net negative for steals and turnovers (net +8).

Jrue is a major net positive for FGM, 3PM, assists and steals, a net positive for points, neutral for FTM, reb, and blocks, and a net negative for turnovers (net +8).

according to these rankings, Anthony Edwards and Mikal Bridges will be the 2 most valuable players with AE being a +2 in all categories except a net negative TO's and Mikal has no net negative categories, being a +2 in FGM, FTM, 3PM, Pts, steals, and blocks, and a +1 in rebounds, assists, and turnovers (both net +15).

Tatum is a net +14, Luka and Kyrie are net +13, and Porzyngis is a +12.

After them, it's a bunch of +11's and +10's (usual suspects of Embiid, D'Aaron fox, Jokic, jimmy butler, etc.).

Some surprises: VanVleet is a +11, Buddy Hield is a +10 and Giannis a +9, Immanuel Quickley is a +9, and PJ washington is a +8.

I'm also looking at which players are +2 players across 5 categories. Vucevic is conventionally known as a fantasy darling but is only a +2 player in 4 categories, as are Lebron, CJ McColllum, Harden, PG13, Kawhi, Ja Morant, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Ingram is only a +2 player in FTM, and is a -1 player in 3PM, rebounds, steals, and blocks (he's a net 1) as is Herb Jones. Kispert stands alone at a net 0. Georges Niang is a -1 at 121. Net +2's (and arguably better than Ingram) are Austin Reeves, Max Strus, Isaiah Joe, Bobby Portis, Nurkic, Markelle Fultz, and Tre Jones.

On, and Tyus Jones is a net +5, being +2 in Assists, steals, and turnovers! +1 in 3PM, neutral in FGM and points, and net negatives in FTM, Rebounds, and blocks. Other +5 players are Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Keegan Murray, Tyrese Maxey, Gobert, Valanciunas, Looney, Capela, and Plumlee.

The only other wizard that made the list is Deni, who's a +4 player, being a +2 player in rebounds, a +1 player in assists, steals, and TO's, net 0 in FGM, FTM, and points, and a net negative in 3PM. Other +4 players are Ben Mathurin, Tim Hardaway Jr, Michael Porter Jr, Onyeka Okongwu, Draymond, and John Collins.

Beal is a +3 player.

Just thought it was interesting.

I ranked these based on point totals, so guys that were hurt or load managed were dinged (like Beal and Ingram). I did this just as an exercise to get me thinking in terms of categories and also a crash course on some players that I'm not as familiar with.

This also doesn't account for rookies, KAT, and Zion who didn't have stats last season. Yahoo has Wemby projected as a 20/9.5/2.5 guy next season. Going off the projected numbers, he's a +8 and Holmgren a +6. Hopefully that means people will reach for Wemby, Holmgren, Brandon Miller, etc. and leave guys like Franz Wagner and Trey Murphy (+9 guys according to my rankings) for the middle rounds.