Bradley Beal - Part II

[Dark Faze]

Fournier replacing Beal would be an upgrade.

I disagree. The guy does nothing well but score at decent efficiency, and despite the vast difference between his ORTG and Brads, looking deeper at the numbers just shows a guy who's near Brads level of efficiency on a smaller scale. Evans got a better team in Orlando than we do in Washington imo, and they're only a game above .500.

Nonsense. Both Wall and Gortat are better than every player on the Orlando Magic. They don't have a better team.

And how can you say "vast difference in ORtg" in the same sentence as "near Brad's level of efficiency".

I like Vucevic more than Gortat, and while John is better than everyone else, you've got Fournier pegged ahead of Brad--Gordon, Hezonja, Harris, Dipo, Payton vs Porter, Nene, Neal, Dudley, Sessions....*shrug*

Might favor our roster a bit more, but at the end of the day if Fournier was such an upgrade over Brad, then I think you'd see it in the record.

[Dark Faze]

I don't even know why yall are shook about him getting max--finances become an issue when you've got guys you want to bring in to take his place, and right now if we don't get Kevin Durant we're going to have almost no shot of bringing in a free agent all-star, let alone super star.

Of course that doesn't mean to just spend money foolishly, but John Wall is going to be underpaid severely until his next contract. Gortat is an amazing contract in the new CAP. The idea that our young guy Brad who still has the ability to improve, and has shown amazing runs in the last two post seasons, is going to be overpaid--I just don't see what the big deal is.

Because this is 'RealGM'.. everyone is a 'real' GM on here. People think that if we let Beal go and sign Eric Gordon for $10M, it means we're definitely going to sign Kevin Durant with that extra capspace.

In reality, that capspace will just end up sitting there (or will be used to max Ryan Anderson). Whatever Wiz fanbase that remains will completely dwindle away as the team outlook turns bleak, and Wall will start planning his exit in 2017. That's a far more realistic outcome when teams don't hold onto their young talent.

Even if Beal is a risk to miss 15 games a season here on out, keeping the Wall/Beal/Porter core together through their primes is the best chance this team will have at success, relevance, watchability moving forward. Almost any other scenario in which we get better by letting Beal go, involves a fantasy trade or FA signing that isn't tenable in real life.

Durant has little reason to leave OKC for DC. Al Horford has no reason to leave Atlanta. Cousins isn't on the trading block. And let's say we offered Beal to Philly, who's to say they'd trade any of their more valuable picks for him?

quoting this excellent post for the new page--all that needs to be said really

[Kanyewest]

I just don't know how you can justify maxing Beal out. I love him as much as anyone if not more so but the guy is just not reliable at all health wise.

I'm going to play devil's advocate here since pretty much all the arguments for not maxing Beal have been stated

1) Perhaps you are confident that you can develop Beal better than Washington by encouraging him to take 3s.
2) Potential- Beal is only 22 and should enter his prime.
3) You have to over pay him even to consider him leaving Washington
4) Who else are you going to pay money to with all your cap space if you are another team?
5) Beal has shown the ability the show up in the big moments in the playoffs
6) You have a better medical staff and are not going to play Beal high minutes which would not only increase Beal's health and perhaps Beal's injuries will remain healthy
7) For the Wizards you may as well lock him up in 2016 because a max offer in 2017 is going to be even higher.
8) Washington risks losing Beal for nothing if he signs the qualifying offer.

[pcbothwel]

I don't even know why yall are shook about him getting max--finances become an issue when you've got guys you want to bring in to take his place, and right now if we don't get Kevin Durant we're going to have almost no shot of bringing in a free agent all-star, let alone super star.

Of course that doesn't mean to just spend money foolishly, but John Wall is going to be underpaid severely until his next contract. Gortat is an amazing contract in the new CAP. The idea that our young guy Brad who still has the ability to improve, and has shown amazing runs in the last two post seasons, is going to be overpaid--I just don't see what the big deal is.

Because this is 'RealGM'.. everyone is a 'real' GM on here. People think that if we let Beal go and sign Eric Gordon for $10M, it means we're definitely going to sign Kevin Durant with that extra capspace.

In reality, that capspace will just end up sitting there (or will be used to max Ryan Anderson). Whatever Wiz fanbase that remains will completely dwindle away as the team outlook turns bleak, and Wall will start planning his exit in 2017. That's a far more realistic outcome when teams don't hold onto their young talent.

Even if Beal is a risk to miss 15 games a season here on out, keeping the Wall/Beal/Porter core together through their primes is the best chance this team will have at success, relevance, watchability moving forward. Almost any other scenario in which we get better by letting Beal go, involves a fantasy trade or FA signing that isn't tenable in real life.

Durant has little reason to leave OKC for DC. Al Horford has no reason to leave Atlanta. Cousins isn't on the trading block. And let's say we offered Beal to Philly, who's to say they'd trade any of their more valuable picks for him?

Agreed with both of you. I think the obvious choice is to offer less than the Max, but be willing to match any offer.

It doesnt affect the KD/Whiteside plans and there is still the chance he makes the jump next year.

If he only slightly improves or stays about the same (ranked 15-20 SG), then his contract would be easy to dump in 2017 offseason.

He'll only be about 17% of the Salary cap in 17/18, which equates to under 12M this year. Thats less than Kemba Walker, Amir Johnson, Nene, Batum, etc.

[tontoz]

My point is that there are often reports about "so and so team is lining up an offer sheet, or willing to give max offer to ___" before the FA moratorium ends, those reports aren't easy to confirm.

If Beal signs with the Wiz on day 1, there's no way to know confirm who else was going to send him an offer sheet.

If Beal signs a max deal with the Wizards then you would win the bet. I said he won't get a max offer from any team and that includes the Wizards.

Ah, so you're saying the Wiz will potentially be able to sign him for less than the max?

I sure hope so.. but I just don't see it. No point in me making a wager on it, I simply don't think it's likely with so many teams having max capspace. All it takes is the Sixers, Knicks, or Lakers to drive his price up.. those teams have nothing to lose by extending him a max offer sheet.

They absolutely do have something to lose if Beal signs the offer. Then they will be paying max money to a guy who isn't that good.

[tontoz]

I don't even know why yall are shook about him getting max--finances become an issue when you've got guys you want to bring in to take his place, and right now if we don't get Kevin Durant we're going to have almost no shot of bringing in a free agent all-star, let alone super star.

Of course that doesn't mean to just spend money foolishly, but John Wall is going to be underpaid severely until his next contract. Gortat is an amazing contract in the new CAP. The idea that our young guy Brad who still has the ability to improve, and has shown amazing runs in the last two post seasons, is going to be overpaid--I just don't see what the big deal is.

Because this is 'RealGM'.. everyone is a 'real' GM on here. People think that if we let Beal go and sign Eric Gordon for $10M, it means we're definitely going to sign Kevin Durant with that extra capspace.

In reality, that capspace will just end up sitting there (or will be used to max Ryan Anderson). Whatever Wiz fanbase that remains will completely dwindle away as the team outlook turns bleak, and Wall will start planning his exit in 2017. That's a far more realistic outcome when teams don't hold onto their young talent.

Even if Beal is a risk to miss 15 games a season here on out, keeping the Wall/Beal/Porter core together through their primes is the best chance this team will have at success, relevance, watchability moving forward. Almost any other scenario in which we get better by letting Beal go, involves a fantasy trade or FA signing that isn't tenable in real life.

Durant has little reason to leave OKC for DC. Al Horford has no reason to leave Atlanta. Cousins isn't on the trading block. And let's say we offered Beal to Philly, who's to say they'd trade any of their more valuable picks for him?

quoting this excellent post for the new page--all that needs to be said really

LOL

If KD doesn't come here the outlook will be bleak regardless of whether we sign Beal or not. We are 5 years into a rebuild and still under .500. Resigning Beal will just make things worse.

[nate33]

One thing that people don't seem to realize is that, after jumping to $90M and then $108M, the cap is projected to FALL down to $100M. Those large contracts that were signed in 2016 and 2017 won't look so good by 2018. And if a bunch of teams spent max dollars in 2016 and 2017 chasing marginal players, there will be a bunch of free agents available in 2018 and a lot less money around to chase them.

I'm not saying that Wait Until 2018 is an attractive strategy, but it is a plausible Plan C.

[fishercob]

It was suggested to me this morning that unless injuries end Beal's career (soon), he'll be tradeable even on a max deal. As frustrated as I am at the moment, I can't say I disagree.

[Brapman]

I think you guys are full of "ifs" and "hopes." Facts: Beal has underperformed his all-star of the future reputation in every season. Beal has had some great playoff series - but there's always a guy who unexpectedly has a great playoffs every season. Beal has had 4 straight years of significant injuries to his right fibula.

Surmise: No GM is going to add him to their team unless he signs for a big discount. He's the guy you sign and then a few years later that GM loses his job - just a huge huge risk to take to give a large contract to an injury prone guy who has never put up great numbers.

More surmise: Durant is less likely to be interested in jumping ship to play with Washington. The attraction to join you guys was always Wall and Beal. Now, it's just Wall and "oh, too bad about Beal."

[Rafael122]

I think you guys are full of "ifs" and "hopes." Facts: Beal has underperformed his all-star of the future reputation in every season. Beal has had some great playoff series - but there's always a guy who unexpectedly has a great playoffs every season. Beal has had 4 straight years of significant injuries to his right fibula.

Surmise: No GM is going to add him to their team unless he signs for a big discount. He's the guy you sign and then a few years later that GM loses his job - just a huge huge risk to take to give a large contract to an injury prone guy who has never put up great numbers.

More surmise: Durant is less likely to be interested in jumping ship to play with Washington. The attraction to join you guys was always Wall and Beal. Now, it's just Wall and "oh, too bad about Beal."

Maybe Ernie did this, maybe he didn't but a good GM would put Beal's name out there and test the waters to see what he can get. I'm on board for a Beal + Oubre + first rounder to Cousins trade. I wouldn't trade Beal AND Porter, but one of the two, preferably Brad. If DMC is playing the 4 like it's been suggested, a coach has to make that work between him and Gortat. There's too much talent there not to make it work. Honestly that sounds more enticing than Wall/Brad and others. Cousins is a legit top 10 player in the game, better than any forward or center Durant has ever played with in OKC. You've got Wall, a two way center in Gortat, and while I wouldn't say it's easy to plug and play a 2 guard, I think there are more of them out there than forwards and centers. Also helps that Cousins is signed long term.

Beal's contract is going to be horrendous, just hope we're not the ones paying him.

[nate33]

^
I would amend that to say that Cousins is a top 10 "talent" in this league. He is manifestly not a top 10 player because of his lousy shot selection and anti-team attitude.

I'd still trade Beal + Gortat + pick for him. I have no interest in pairing him with Gortat. It won't work.

[Brapman]

Cousins is one of the first guys in the league I wouldn't want on my team - just a horrible teammate - a ticking time bomb.

I'm glad I don't have to root for him. But, maybe you could get him for Beal plus another really good asset. I don't know that Beal and Porter would be enough.

[Rafael122]

^
I would amend that to say that Cousins is a top 10 "talent" in this league. He is manifestly not a top 10 player because of his lousy shot selection and anti-team attitude.

I'd still trade Beal + Gortat + pick for him. I have no interest in pairing him with Gortat. It won't work.

The organization has been crap ever since he got there, I'll give him a pass for being in a losing culture. You get him in here w/Wall, hopefully John would straighten him out.

[DCZards]

^
I would amend that to say that Cousins is a top 10 "talent" in this league. He is manifestly not a top 10 player because of his lousy shot selection and anti-team attitude.

I'd still trade Beal + Gortat + pick for him. I have no interest in pairing him with Gortat. It won't work.

The organization has been crap ever since he got there, I'll give him a pass for being in a losing culture. You get him in here w/Wall, hopefully John would straighten him out.

Cousins is an immense talent and I believe his attitude has improved with age/maturity. But I don't blame the crappy, losing culture at Sac for Cousins acting like a knucklehead at times. That's on him.

And I wouldn't be so sure Wall wants him as a teammate. We all assume that because they're good friends that John would want to play with Cousins. However, it could be that Wall would be concerned about adding Cousins' attitude to what is now a mature, high-character Zards locker room.

But I'd take a chance on Demarcus given how good he is....and EG, Witt and Wall probably would as well.

[Brapman]

Things that every team says but that never work:

"Put _______, proven team cancer and knucklehead with our own _____ as coach and our own ______ as our best player and leader and that cancer will turn to gold."

[miller31time]

Things that every team says but that never work:

"Put _______, proven team cancer and knucklehead with our own _____ as coach and our own ______ as our best player and leader and that cancer will turn to gold."

Rasheed Wallace and Zach Randolph come to mind with respect to players who needed a change of scenery and more stable franchise to maximize their talent.

[LyricalRico]

Things that every team says but that never work:

"Put _______, proven team cancer and knucklehead with our own _____ as coach and our own ______ as our best player and leader and that cancer will turn to gold."

Exactly, especially here since DMC would immediately become the strongest personality in the Washington locker room. Who's going to stand up to him when he inevitably goes off? Wall may be the Wiz's best player, but he hasn't proven to be a heart-and-soul-of-the-team type of leader yet that essentially wills the rest of the team to conform. I'd go in a few different directions before I acquire Cousins.

[payitforward]

Things that every team says but that never work:

"Put _______, proven team cancer and knucklehead with our own _____ as coach and our own ______ as our best player and leader and that cancer will turn to gold."

Rasheed Wallace and Zach Randolph come to mind with respect to players who needed a change of scenery and more stable franchise to maximize their talent.

How many names "come to mind" where it didn't turn out that way? It's a long list.

[miller31time]

Things that every team says but that never work:

"Put _______, proven team cancer and knucklehead with our own _____ as coach and our own ______ as our best player and leader and that cancer will turn to gold."

Rasheed Wallace and Zach Randolph come to mind with respect to players who needed a change of scenery and more stable franchise to maximize their talent.

How many names "come to mind" where it didn't turn out that way? It's a long list.

No clue. The quoted poster said it never works. I thought of two players immediately where it "worked."

[DCZards]

Things that every team says but that never work:

"Put _______, proven team cancer and knucklehead with our own _____ as coach and our own ______ as our best player and leader and that cancer will turn to gold."

Rasheed Wallace and Zach Randolph come to mind with respect to players who needed a change of scenery and more stable franchise to maximize their talent.

Please, please don't put Sheed Wallace in the same category as Cousins. Wallace was NEVER a cancer as it relates to his teams, coaches and teammates. His problem was with refs. In fact, most of Sheed's former teammates and coaches praise his lockerroom presence and leadership.