Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[Dark Faze]

Here's a pretty simple question--if we don't project Troy Brown Jr to be a starter long term, then what is the purpose in developing him?

We'd essentially be developing a 6th man talent that we either pay market value to keep, or are developing for the benefit of some other team.

That isn't to say that you should never develop any players you don't believe in long term, but particularly with 1st rounders, I'm extremely willing to move said player to acquire a late 1st, or maybe to move up higher in the draft, or part of a trade down package.

Wow....

Here's a guy drafted at age 18, comes into the league having just turned 19 & has quite a good rookie season (though he didn't play nearly enough), then returns for his 2d year having just turned 20 years old & proceeds to improve in every possible area & to play at a way above average NBA level.

So... no reason to believe in him long term -- let's give up on him! But, Rui Hachimura, who is a year and a half older than Troy Brown & not anywhere near as good a player so far... there's the guy to "project... to be a starter long term!"

Sometimes I wonder what game some of you are watching. One between your ears it seems.

My statement isn't about lacking confidence in him as a player. My statement is simply about whether or not its worth developing 1st round picks that you project as being bench players due to the style of play they have. Troy being kind of a great spark plug off the bench with size and playmaking, but not quite possessing what you want out of a starting point or wing (imo). If you think he can develop into a future starting 1,2, or 3 for us, then great. However, if you perceive him as being one of the better 6th men in the league--that's something that can be acquired at market value fairly easily if you are willing to pay. So the question is whether you'd rather trade the asset in order to get a higher chance at a *harder* to acquire asset to develop, vs developing one that can be acquired for just cash.

[payitforward]

All players look good in their highlights. How good could I make Wagner look in a highlight reel?

If Bitadze played to that level regularly you couldn't get him for Wagner/Robinson/#37. On the season, he was 19% on 3's. He didn't rebound it, turned it over a lot, fouled a lot. He did block a lot of shots.

[payitforward]

I don't understand this at all. Not one bit. Unless you think Leaf is a meaningful asset, which I don't. Ditto Robinson.

So, it amounts to Wagner/#37 for Bitadze/#54 -- which I give an unequivocal hard pass! I'd much rather have whoever the best guy is at any position on the board at #37 than I would Bitadze. Certainly I'd rather have Tillman. I'd much much rather have Vernon Carey.

If I wanted to trade Wagner & #37, it would be to move up in the draft.

Plus -- how can this trade give Indiana a "talent upgrade," while we get the "better prospect?"

Goga is a better prospect than any of the Centers at 37, And I love Tillman.

Talent upgrade vs Better prospect: Leaf sucks, while Robinson is at least a roster worthy guard. And Wagner is more developed than Goga as he is 2 years older and has an extra year of NBA experience... But I think Goga will end up being the better player in 1-2 years.

That said... Im open to removing the pick swap all together... Or having IND add in 21/22 2nd to help.

There's probably not enough here to debate, in truth, but still... & I'll leave Leaf & Robinson out of it for a moment. don't think they make much difference.

First off, would I swap Wagner for Bitadze straight up? Absolutely! Goga is younger, certainly seems to have more of an upside, & we have 1 more year of control over him (plus, he has by far the superior name).

My problem is with the pick swap. This year's draft looks particularly in the '30s. I think we have a shot to get a pretty good prospect at #37. Much more likely than at #54. So, it starts to look like we're giving Wagner &, say, Tillman or Carey for Bitadze -- which seems like too much.

Now... on draft day last year, would I have traded Wagner (if we'd already had him) and the 2019 #37 pick (if we'd already had it as well) for Bitadze & the Pacers R2 pick in 2019? Yes, absolutely! But, Bitadze played badly as an NBA rookie, so his value has gone down.

Make any sense?

[payitforward]

Here's a pretty simple question--if we don't project Troy Brown Jr to be a starter long term, then what is the purpose in developing him?

We'd essentially be developing a 6th man talent that we either pay market value to keep, or are developing for the benefit of some other team.

That isn't to say that you should never develop any players you don't believe in long term, but particularly with 1st rounders, I'm extremely willing to move said player to acquire a late 1st, or maybe to move up higher in the draft, or part of a trade down package.

Wow....

Here's a guy drafted at age 18, comes into the league having just turned 19 & has quite a good rookie season (though he didn't play nearly enough), then returns for his 2d year having just turned 20 years old & proceeds to improve in every possible area & to play at a way above average NBA level.

So... no reason to believe in him long term -- let's give up on him! But, Rui Hachimura, who is a year and a half older than Troy Brown & not anywhere near as good a player so far... there's the guy to "project... to be a starter long term!"

Sometimes I wonder what game some of you are watching. One between your ears it seems.

My statement isn't about lacking confidence in him as a player. My statement is simply about whether or not its worth developing 1st round picks that you project as being bench players due to the style of play they have. Troy being kind of a great spark plug off the bench with size and playmaking, but not quite possessing what you want out of a starting point or wing (imo). If you think he can develop into a future starting 1,2, or 3 for us, then great. However, if you perceive him as being one of the better 6th men in the league--that's something that can be acquired at market value fairly easily if you are willing to pay. So the question is whether you'd rather trade the asset in order to get a higher chance at a *harder* to acquire asset to develop, vs developing one that can be acquired for just cash.

Once you have an asset, in basketball or any other human situation, what you paid for it is a sunk cost. It's irrelevant.

Whether Troy was a R1 pick or an undrafted FA is irrelevant. What's relevant is how much he costs now & will cost in the future as against how much production he provides. You want guys who produce at a higher level than what they earn. Not guys whom you acquire at market value. In a league with a cap, a player at market value does not help improve your team. That's true by definition.

The rest of what you write amounts to no more than asking what would make you trade a player, any player. But, the answer to that has nothing to do with Troy Brown. In fact, there are only 2 reasons, & neither has anything to with the framework of your question: 1. if you have to trade him (because of the cap/tax, for example -- or behavior or other issues), or 2. you can get a better player or players for him for some reason (which is equivalent to acquiring a player for less than his market value).

All the stuff about 'is he a spark plug or a starter' (or an alternator, water pump, crankshaft?) is completely irrelevant. Above all, making that kind of determination about Troy Brown Jr. who just turned 21 is, forgive me, idiotic. You have no idea whatever how good he can become.

Above all, since he is already a way above average NBA player, yet he makes only $3.4m, you'd have to be nuts to want to trade him -- unless you had 1 of those 2 reasons I mentioned above.

[Ruzious]

Part of all this that we do here is projecting players - which happens to be what real GM's do. Arguably the first 2 things "you" want in a wing player in today's NBA are the ability to make 3's and to play defense, and - right now - Troy is below average at both. We don't know how much he'll improve in both areas, but does that mean we just wait and see? I think it's a fair question. Now, do I know of a way to project how well he'll develop? No. That's why I'm just a fan, and Pif is the virtual GM of the Golden State Warriors and former and future Executive of the Year.

[payitforward]

In the future, I will have been a former candidate for... something!

To be serious (or at least serious-er) for a moment, what moves you to think Brown is a below-average defender? Not challenging you, Ruz -- just curious how you get to that.

[DCZards]

Part of all this that we do here is projecting players - which happens to be what real GM's do. Arguably the first 2 things "you" want in a wing player in today's NBA are the ability to make 3's and to play defense, and - right now - Troy is below average at both. We don't know how much he'll improve in both areas, but does that mean we just wait and see? I think it's a fair question. Now, do I know of a way to project how well he'll develop? No. That's why I'm just a fan, and Pif is the virtual GM of the Golden State Warriors and former and future Executive of the Year.

Today's NBA game does indeed call for wing players to excel at shooting 3s and defending. And Troy struggles to do both at this point in his career. But he somewhat makes up for those shortcomings with his above average skills as a rebounder and passer, and his improving ability to create offense for himself and teammates.

If Troy improves as a shooter (which I believe he will) and as a defender, he’ll become that Swiss-army knife type of wing player who, imo, is far more valuable--and hard to find--than one who only excels at shooting 3s and defending.

There's already a LOT to like about Troy's game. His development, and not his fit, should be the focus.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, but how many players have successfully transitioned from the Swiss army to the NBA? Not many, right?

My view is that he's a good player for his age, but as far as being a good player regardless of age... not at this point. Being a good rebounding wing on a bad rebounding team is nice, but it's not a prime factor that teams look for, imo.

[payitforward]

We should be discussing this in a different thread, obviously. So... I'll move the Ruz/Zards exchange and take it up there....

[payitforward]

from the troy brown thread...

...Is your point that we should hold onto all of our youngsters...?

Nah, should the right deal come along, any one of them should be fair game to trade... for more youth....

This brings us around again to the oft-discussed idea of trading for Jarrett Allen.

More generally it underlines the fact that we have only 3 veterans: Wall, Beal & Smith. So, if we make a trade it would have to be based on our crew of youngsters -- Bonga, Brown, Bryant, Mathews, Robinson, Rui, Schofield, &/or Wagner.

Gotta assume that Mathews, Robinson, Schofield & Wagner combine to have just about zero trade value. Robinson & Wagner came to us for nothing & didn't do anything with us that would add much to their value. Mathews was undrafted & played 277 mnutes. Schofield showed zero. The other four guys are a different story, but there's no reason to think that we'd add value to the team by trading any of them (w/o throwing in 1 or more picks, which, in most scenarios, would be foolish).

So... except within the draft itself, maybe trades aren't the thing for us right now?

We'll have financial room to sign at least 1 FA -- who should we be looking at?

[dckingsfan]

from the troy brown thread...

...Is your point that we should hold onto all of our youngsters...?

Nah, should the right deal come along, any one of them should be fair game to trade... for more youth....

This brings us around again to the oft-discussed idea of trading for Jarrett Allen.

More generally it underlines the fact that we have only 3 veterans: Wall, Beal & Smith. So, if we make a trade it would have to be based on our crew of youngsters -- Bonga, Brown, Bryant, Mathews, Robinson, Rui, Schofield, &/or Wagner.

Gotta assume that Mathews, Robinson, Schofield & Wagner combine to have just about zero trade value. Robinson & Wagner came to us for nothing & didn't do anything with us that would add much to their value. Mathews was undrafted & played 277 mnutes. Schofield showed zero. The other four guys are a different story, but there's no reason to think that we'd add value to the team by trading any of them (w/o throwing in 1 or more picks, which, in most scenarios, would be foolish).

So... except within the draft itself, maybe trades aren't the thing for us right now?

We'll have financial room to sign at least 1 FA -- who should we be looking at?

Yeah, pretty much where I am at (and mentioned in a previous post in this thread). I think there is a very low probability of a "major" trade. And still less than a 50/50 at a more minor trade other than a Robinson like trade.

So that does take us back to our FA - and does that logically lead us to Bertans? Which then leads us back to the draft as the only major change (and of course having a much improved PG rotation in Wall/Smith and the improved youngsters.

[payitforward]

Just started a "potential FA signings" thread....

[zimpy27]

Washington sends: Bradley Beal, Isaac Bonga

Minny sends: James Johnson, Jarrett Culver, Jacob Evans, 2020 1st pick, 2022 FRP


Does this sort of trade fit with the Wizards future plans?

It puts them in position for a young team of Killian, Edwards, Culver, Rui, Bryant - Brown, Wagner. With an extra pick coming to them.

[doclinkin]

Washington sends: Bradley Beal, Isaac Bonga

Minny sends: James Johnson, Jarrett Culver, Jacob Evans, 2020 1st pick, 2022 FRP


Does this sort of trade fit with the Wizards future plans?

It puts them in position for a young team of Killian, Edwards, Culver, Rui, Bryant - Brown, Wagner. With an extra pick coming to them.

Hah! Washington says hell no. Bradley Beal is not on the block. He is consulted on roster moves and has been talked about in front office roles when his playing days are done. He is a foundational piece for as long as he wants to play here, and if not then the front office will find him a situation that makes him happy and trade to those teams. That means contenders, not small market third tier teams. Consider all the teams that dangled offers before he renewed his contract. Then understand he would fit with every team in the league, instant plug and play. There would be a bidding war if he were a potential trade target. And it would have to be in order to land him. It would take a "Godfather' offer to pry him from this team. This is not that.

[payitforward]

Aside from all that doclinkin writes about Beal & his role, there is the fact that this offer conveys no present value of any kind for Brad & Bonga. Johnson is of no interest whatever. Culver so far has been absolutely awful, Jacob Evans hasn't played NBA basketball.

Isaac Bonga, on the other hand, is already worth as much as, maybe more than, your 2022 FRP (esp. since, with Beal, you are thinking you'll be out of the lottery). In effect, you'd like to get Beal for your FRP this year.

So, as I guess you must have expected, the answer is no.

How about, instead, we trade you our first round pick, Moritz Wagner, Jerome Robinson & Admiral Schofield for KAT?

[payitforward]

I posted some words about, & links to highlights of, Nathan Knight in the R2 thread. No one has picked up on this material -- for reasons I don't understand.

Ruz? Pcbothwei? Wall_glizzy? Doc?

Come on, guys. Watch him play. Look at his numbers. He's good -- very good.

[dckingsfan]

Washington sends: Bradley Beal, Isaac Bonga

Minny sends: James Johnson, Jarrett Culver, Jacob Evans, 2020 1st pick, 2022 FRP


Does this sort of trade fit with the Wizards future plans?

It puts them in position for a young team of Killian, Edwards, Culver, Rui, Bryant - Brown, Wagner. With an extra pick coming to them.

Hah! Washington says hell no. Bradley Beal is not on the block. He is consulted on roster moves and has been talked about in front office roles when his playing days are done. He is a foundational piece for as long as he wants to play here, and if not then the front office will find him a situation that makes him happy and trade to those teams. That means contenders, not small market third tier teams. Consider all the teams that dangled offers before he renewed his contract. Then understand he would fit with every team in the league, instant plug and play. There would be a bidding war if he were a potential trade target. And it would have to be in order to land him. It would take a "Godfather' offer to pry him from this team. This is not that.

So, that is a maybe?

[TGW]

Washington sends: Bradley Beal, Isaac Bonga

Minny sends: James Johnson, Jarrett Culver, Jacob Evans, 2020 1st pick, 2022 FRP


Does this sort of trade fit with the Wizards future plans?

It puts them in position for a young team of Killian, Edwards, Culver, Rui, Bryant - Brown, Wagner. With an extra pick coming to them.

No.

[zimpy27]

Washington sends: Bradley Beal, Isaac Bonga

Minny sends: James Johnson, Jarrett Culver, Jacob Evans, 2020 1st pick, 2022 FRP


Does this sort of trade fit with the Wizards future plans?

It puts them in position for a young team of Killian, Edwards, Culver, Rui, Bryant - Brown, Wagner. With an extra pick coming to them.

Hah! Washington says hell no. Bradley Beal is not on the block. He is consulted on roster moves and has been talked about in front office roles when his playing days are done. He is a foundational piece for as long as he wants to play here, and if not then the front office will find him a situation that makes him happy and trade to those teams. That means contenders, not small market third tier teams. Consider all the teams that dangled offers before he renewed his contract. Then understand he would fit with every team in the league, instant plug and play. There would be a bidding war if he were a potential trade target. And it would have to be in order to land him. It would take a "Godfather' offer to pry him from this team. This is not that.

[ProcessDoctor]

Sixers fan in peace. Some talk of Wall on our board. Would you guys do either of the following trades?


Harris/Scott/#21 for Wall/#9

or

Horford/Richardson/#21 for Wall/#9