Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[Dat2U]

Nate... Big fan.
Another sleeper team for Beal are the Spurs.
- Pop is 71
- The team is .500
- Derozan is ballin
- They have all their picks and a ton of young assets.

Beal + Lopez for Aldridge, Vassell, Tre Jones, Lyles, Samanic plus picks (Up for discussion, but they have all their future 1st)

Murray / Mills
Beal / White / Walker
Keldon Johnson / Walker
Derozan / Gay
Poeltl / Lopez

I would include a 3rd team to send Aldridge to that need a big (Back to Portland?)

I was huge Vassell and Jones fan this last draft. I also think their future picks could be steals for a couple reasons:
1) Pop will be gone
2) FA's never go to SA, so little chance cap space will save them like it could a team like Miami

Also, I could see Beal really enjoying his time there and competing in the West for a couple playoff runs, but also not resigning there. Then we jump back in the game to sign him in 2022.

How in the world you suggest Beal to SA but don't ask for Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, Dejounte Murray but instead want the role players they just drafted? Its like we don't value what we have, we don't dare ask for another teams' best assets but we get googly eyed over other team's future role players and late 1sts? If your trying to build something special in San Antonio, then yes, this is absolute way to go.

Dat... Easy:
1) I value longer term, upside assets over filler. Asking for Keldon/Murray is getting a player with less control/more salary while also diminishing the picks we would get. I love Vassell and think long term he is better than either of the 3 players you mentioned, but he plays the least...So, SA would probably value him less in the immediate and therefore give us a better package overall.
Also, SA only makes this trade to compete as a top 4 team in the West. Taking starters out of their lineup makes it harder for to sell them on the idea.

2) On that note, what the hell makes Walker special...Like, at all? Highly recruited? Sure, but he was a mediocre college player in a mediocre program. Since being drafted he has shown to be below average to downright poor at scoring, rebounding, creating, defending, passing, etc. Basically every facet of basketball...oh, and he has 2 less years of control than Vassell.

3) Picks: When we look at picks in the 2024-2027 range we need to be smart. I pointed out that while SA has been a pinnacle of consistency the last 20+ years, I see good reason to bet on them falling off in 3-4 years. As I said, Pop is 71 and will surely retire in the next 3 years after this run. Also, unlike teams in LA, Miami, NY, Dallas/Houston, etc. SA has shown no ability to lure top FA. This means that I dont see massive cap room bailing them out like it did with Miami, Brooklyn, etc. This cannot be understated.

4) Beal: This is the BEST situation for us/Beal. Why? For Beal, he gets to play for an excellent coach and organization and try to compete for a title each of the next two offseasons. Why for us? 1) We ship Beal out West and we dont compete against him. 2) SA is one of the teams that I could see Beal enjoying his time with, but walking away from in 2022. Meaning we could take a stab at him in FA.

To recap, it would be:
Beal + Lopez for
Aldridge, Vassell, Tre Jones, Lyles, Samanic plus picks (Up for discussion, but they have all their future 1st)
I would want 2023, 2025, and 2027 at a minimum. But swaps in 24 & 26 as well would be great.

Thats is really solid deal. No Pop, No draft picks, in San Antonio... They could have some really lean years in 23-27.

Also, I would ship Aldridge to a 3rd team for a small asset.

Again, they are 10-8 and 5th in the West with Pop reaching the end. If SA were to ever make an out of character trade like this, it would be now.

It's Vassell and a bunch of late 1st rounders! Are you really satisfied with Vassell as best piece your getting back for Beal? Samanic? A backup PG in Tre Jones? I just can't get excited by collecting volume of mediocre assets beyond the one decent one.

Keldon is 21 but we don't want him because of "diminishing control"? Yeah this feels like over analyzing it. Its GM malpractice to not to at least get Keldon in that situation and that's still not enough.

[Ruzious]

Then watch Shepard make irony hurt by trading the Minnesota pick with Westbrook to Chicago for Otto Porter and Sato.

[nate33]

Then watch Shepard make irony hurt by trading the Minnesota pick with Westbrook to Chicago for Otto Porter and Sato.

Nah. Sheppard isn't THAT bad.

[Ruzious]

Then watch Shepard make irony hurt by trading the Minnesota pick with Westbrook to Chicago for Otto Porter and Sato.

The owner made him do it.

[nate33]

Would Sacramento trade Haliburton for Wiseman? Probably not. That would be a dream scenario.

Haliburton would be the perfect fit on a team as more of an off-ball player and defensive-minded guy so that we could try and run more offense through Avdija, Hachimura and our 2021 lotto picks.

Could you imagine? Do the Warriors deal. Land the #2 and #4 and #18 picks. Somehow end up with Mobley and Suggs. Trade Wiseman for Haliburton:

PG Suggs/Westbrook
SG Haliburton/Mathews
SF Wiggins/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Mobley/Bryant

[Dat2U]

Asset base, I guess.

But: What collection of youth has ever developed into a championship team? If that is our team then get me Tom Izzo or Jay Wright or Tony Bennett so we can teach fundamentals. Except that in the NBA there is no time to drill players in the basics. Young teams tend to lose, lose, lose, while players learn bad habits and bad chemistry. It makes busts out of strong talent. I for one don't really want Wiseman as the centerpiece of any deal. A team that gives up on a top 3 pick after the 1st year of having him, especially a team with basketball minds like Kerr, Curry and Draymond, that is a player I don't want. I mean okay if Beal asks for a swap then get everything we can, but my impression is Wiseman is soft and undermotivated. As the literal centerpiece of a team that is not what I want to build around. I want supremely talented overachievers, not repeats of Kwame, JaVale, etc.

The best asset is the Minny pick and that's capped at being no higher than 4 but could be as low as 7-8. You could probably flip Wiseman for a pick in the 6-9 range. He's teases enough to maintain decent value so far. So two mid-lotto picks in a solid draft, Wiggins and a bunch of future picks down the road for Beal. Not terrible but not overwhelming either.

This is why I want to wait till after the lottery. There will be some surprises! It could significantly impact the market for Beal. What if we hit lottery? All the sudden, a clear avenue to keep Beal and significantly improve exists.

[Dat2U]

Would Sacramento trade Haliburton for Wiseman? Probably not. That would be a dream scenario.

Haliburton would be the perfect fit on a team as more of an off-ball player and defensive-minded guy so that we could try and run more offense through Avdija, Hachimura and our 2021 lotto picks.

Could you imagine? Do the Warriors deal. Land the #2 and #4 and #18 picks. Somehow end up with Mobley and Suggs. Trade Wiseman for Haliburton:

PG Suggs/Westbrook
SG Haliburton/Mathews
SF Wiggins/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Mobley/Bryant

This is why I would have drafted Haliburton (nothing against Avdija who's been fine and a perfectly acceptable pick). He would have been the perfect complement to Wall and Beal in small ball lineups or playing with either in the backcourt. Sacramento will likely never trade him. They love him too much. He's literally the perfect teammate. There was only one chance to get a guy like that.

[Ruzious]

Would Sacramento trade Haliburton for Wiseman? Probably not. That would be a dream scenario.

Haliburton would be the perfect fit on a team as more of an off-ball player and defensive-minded guy so that we could try and run more offense through Avdija, Hachimura and our 2021 lotto picks.

Could you imagine? Do the Warriors deal. Land the #2 and #4 and #18 picks. Somehow end up with Mobley and Suggs. Trade Wiseman for Haliburton:

PG Suggs/Westbrook
SG Haliburton/Mathews
SF Wiggins/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Mobley/Bryant

It's possible, though Sac probably feels set at center with Holmes. The good thing is - Wiseman's likely going to have enough trade value in the offseason to get us a quality young guard prospect and perhaps more. Butler of Baylor and Moses Moody of Arkansas are guard prospects with high upsides to keep an eye on. Btw, we still have Brown on the roster too.

[nate33]

Asset base, I guess.

But: What collection of youth has ever developed into a championship team? If that is our team then get me Tom Izzo or Jay Wright or Tony Bennett so we can teach fundamentals. Except that in the NBA there is no time to drill players in the basics. Young teams tend to lose, lose, lose, while players learn bad habits and bad chemistry. It makes busts out of strong talent. I for one don't really want Wiseman as the centerpiece of any deal. A team that gives up on a top 3 pick after the 1st year of having him, especially a team with basketball minds like Kerr, Curry and Draymond, that is a player I don't want. I mean okay if Beal asks for a swap then get everything we can, but my impression is Wiseman is soft and undermotivated. As the literal centerpiece of a team that is not what I want to build around. I want supremely talented overachievers, not repeats of Kwame, JaVale, etc.

The best asset is the Minny pick and that's capped at being no higher than 4 but could be as low as 7-8. You could probably flip Wiseman for a pick in the 6-9 range. He's teases enough to maintain decent value so far. So two mid-lotto picks in a solid draft, Wiggins and a bunch of future picks down the road for Beal. Not terrible but not overwhelming either.

This is why I want to wait till after the lottery. There will be some surprises! It could significantly impact the market for Beal. What if we hit lottery? All the sudden, a clear avenue to keep Beal and significantly improve exists.

Let's say we land a top 3 pick in the lottery. I doubt that's the case. I think we will land a pick in the 5-7 range if Beal stays with the team, but let's say it happens.

Let's also assume that Beal isn't willing to opt in on his player option because it pays him about $7M less in 2022-23 than what he would earn if he waited until Summer 22 to sign a new contract.

Do you just wait until Summer 2022 and hope Beal doesn't pull a Kemba Walker? That's a big gamble.

You could trade him on draft day in 2021, but what value does an unextended Beal have? Is it as much as what Golden State could offer now?

[doclinkin]

This is why I want to wait till after the lottery. There will be some surprises! It could significantly impact the market for Beal. What if we hit lottery? All the sudden, a clear avenue to keep Beal and significantly improve exists.

Likewise. And it is possible Westbrook sits for a time and we see Beal develop late season chemistry with the guys who are projected to be major players for us long term. Hachi and Deni still have upside. TBJ is in a down year but has shown some skills and IQ in the past, Bonga still defends. Maybe we get a few cames where Garrison goes off or we call a guy up from G-League. If we can spread the ball around a bit, we may see young cats develop their talent. I don't need wins all the time, just significant progress.

Then with a top pick in hand, we have a position of strength, and if Beal still asks to be traded, we can see who has which pick and can listen to offers, and let teams try to top each other in the Bradstakes.

[pcbothwel]

It's Vassell and a bunch of late 1st rounders! Are you really satisfied with Vassell as best piece your getting back for Beal? Samanic? A backup PG in Tre Jones? I just can't get excited by collecting volume of mediocre assets beyond the one decent one.

Keldon is 21 but we don't want him because of "diminishing control"? Yeah this feels like over analyzing it. Its GM malpractice to not to at least get Keldon in that situation and that's still not enough.

I cant help you if you fail to grasp the value. Vassell is worth a mid 1st in the 2021 draft. And nothing about Keldon is about diminishing control. Its about assets. I prefer more picks than Keldon. Simple.

And how is this "Late 1st"?
I said 2023, 2025, and 2027 unprotected. You think a SA team with no Beal, Pop, or young star is going to finish in the top 10 in 23-27?

Im now going to repeat myself for a third time. Im betting on SA in 23-27 to be worse than that of other offers such as Miami, GSW, etc. Its not that hard to comprehend.

If all offers are similar, I prefer to send him to the team that is A) In the West, and B) A team he likley wont resign with and therefore gives us the opportunity to offer him full max in 2022.

[nate33]

The other thing you guys are discounting is the fact that, without Beal, we will definitely finish with the worst record in the league. That's a 52% chance at a top 4 pick and a 48% chance at #5. If we keep Beal and show enough progress to keep him happy, that means we finish with maybe the 8th worst record in the league and a 26% chance at a top 4 pick and a 74% of picking 8th, 9th or 10th.

[nate33]

Im now going to repeat myself for a third time. Im betting on SA in 23-27 to be worse than that of other offers such as Miami, GSW, etc. Its not that hard to comprehend.

I don't know why you think that's the case though. You are leaving San Antonio with most of their young pieces, plus Beal, their great management, and a clean cap sheet.

In the case of GSW, all of their good players except Beal will be retired or in massive decline in 4 years, with no reinforcements in the meantime, and massive ongoing luxtax penalties. Likewise, Miami will be without Butler, Herro and Achiuwa (though Beal and Bam together will still be formidable).

[Ruzious]

The other thing you guys are discounting is the fact that, without Beal, we will definitely finish with the worst record in the league. That's a 52% chance at a top 4 pick and a 48% chance at #5. If we keep Beal and show enough progress to keep him happy, that means we finish with maybe the 8th worst record in the league and a 26% chance at a top 4 pick and a 74% of picking 8th, 9th or 10th.

Great point. GS would do a little better this season so they're pick would be lower, but that's a small price to pay.

[Topofthekey]

Asset base, I guess.

But: What collection of youth has ever developed into a championship team? If that is our team then get me Tom Izzo or Jay Wright or Tony Bennett so we can teach fundamentals. Except that in the NBA there is no time to drill players in the basics. Young teams tend to lose, lose, lose, while players learn bad habits and bad chemistry. It makes busts out of strong talent. I for one don't really want Wiseman as the centerpiece of any deal. A team that gives up on a top 3 pick after the 1st year of having him, especially a team with basketball minds like Kerr, Curry and Draymond, that is a player I don't want. I mean okay if Beal asks for a swap then get everything we can, but my impression is Wiseman is soft and undermotivated. As the literal centerpiece of a team that is not what I want to build around. I want supremely talented overachievers, not repeats of Kwame, JaVale, etc.

I'd enthusiastically endorse flipping Wiseman for someone else, either another pick (probably late lotto) or an underrated young player with great work habits and leadership. Would Memphis part with Brandon Clarke or Xavier Tillman? Or maybe trade for a guard with a bulldog mentality like Marcus Smart?

One thing we do have is a group of young guys who are gym rats that want to get better. I don't think we have to worry too much about Avdija, Hachimura, Bryant or Brown getting lazy, even if we lose a lot. And Westbrook should still be a pretty good influence on that front.

Why is Wiseman being so underrated

From what I've seen so far, I feel he's going to have a very productive career

[Topofthekey]

Im now going to repeat myself for a third time. Im betting on SA in 23-27 to be worse than that of other offers such as Miami, GSW, etc. Its not that hard to comprehend.

I don't know why you think that's the case though. You are leaving San Antonio with most of their young pieces, plus Beal, their great management, and a clean cap sheet.

In the case of GSW, all of their good players except Beal will be retired or in massive decline in 4 years, with no reinforcements in the meantime, and massive ongoing luxtax penalties. Likewise, Miami will be without Butler, Herro and Achiuwa (though Beal and Bam together will still be formidable).

I also don't get this fascination with Herro

Yes, he is an interesting prospect to have, but you realize that he isn't actually very good, right?

His advanced stats are terrible. He actually has a lower TS% than someone like Eric Bledsoe, and his OBPM and DBPM numbers are all in the negative

I mean, he's a decent piece to get back in a Beal trade, but he's far from being an adequate centerpiece

[pcbothwel]

Im now going to repeat myself for a third time. Im betting on SA in 23-27 to be worse than that of other offers such as Miami, GSW, etc. Its not that hard to comprehend.

I don't know why you think that's the case though. You are leaving San Antonio with most of their young pieces, plus Beal, and their great management.

In the case of GSW, all of their good players except Beal will be retired or in massive decline in 4 years.
Likewise, Miami will be without Butler (though Beal and Bam together will still be formidable).

nate... Im on board with both of those. The whole point was trying to find another team with picks and young pieces that would want Beal. Dont get bogged down in what I THINK the package would look like. Just look at their assets and evaluate. Sure, Add Keldon too... Im in. lol

As for GSW and Miami...man oh man its getting interesting with both:

GSW: Their now 1 game above .500 fighting for the 8th seed. Oubre & Wiseman look pretty bad and Wiggins looks good. I think this helps our trade package with them as it makes it easier to part with Wiseman. My whole issue with their package was the valuation of Wiseman as an Elite asset. He's not. I have them at the top of my list for all reasons we listed. 1) Twolves pick 2) Wiseman sent to 3rd team for late lotto in 21. 3) The possibility of their unprotected picks in 5 years look interesting.

Miami: Guys... we really need to keep an eye on this.
Some facts: Miami has no 2021 pick as its unprotected. They are now 6-12, which would mean they would trading the 4th pick to NOP ... Side note. Houston traded this pick(and others) with CP3 to get Russ

Even with small improvements, if they end up shipping a top 8 pick out its going to look REALLY bad. They NEED to do something.
Bam looks great per usual, but Board Favorite Herro looks subpar. Poor defender with almost as many turnovers as assist. Isnt shooting well at all either. Sorry, but you he cant be more than a throw in asset at this point. Duncan Robinson is proving to be a poor mans Bertans at this point. Fat Bertans is better than Robinson... He is an elite shooter, but literally does nothing else. Take Bertans, make him less skilled and turn the ball over a bit more...Boom. Robinson.

Herro, Precious, Robinson, and a 2027 pick does NOTHING for anymore... Thats a deal we can get at the NEXT deadline.
Keldon, Vassell, Jones, and a couple 1st is a FAR better package.
GSW also boast a much stronger package... Miami can kick rocks.

[nate33]

[Miami: Guys... we really need to keep an eye on this.
Some facts: Miami has no 2021 pick as its unprotected. They are now 6-12, which would mean they would trading the 4th pick to NOP ... Side note. Houston traded this pick(and others) with CP3 to get Russ

Even with small improvements, if they end up shipping a top 8 pick out its going to look REALLY bad. They NEED to do something.
Bam looks great per usual, but Board Favorite Herro looks subpar. Poor defender with almost as many turnovers as assist. Isnt shooting well at all either. Sorry, but you he cant be more than a throw in asset at this point. Duncan Robinson is proving to be a poor mans Bertans at this point. Fat Bertans is better than Robinson... He is an elite shooter, but literally does nothing else. Take Bertans, make him less skilled and turn the ball over a bit more...Boom. Robinson.

Herro, Precious, Robinson, and a 2027 pick does NOTHING for anymore... Thats a deal we can get at the NEXT deadline.
Keldon, Vassell, Jones, and a couple 1st is a FAR better package.
GSW also boast a much stronger package... Miami can kick rocks.

Valid points on Miami. I wouldn't call Herro a "throw in", but perhaps we need to dial back the hype a bit. Miami does not look very good outside of the bubble. Maybe it was a fluke.

The thing that jumps out to me is New Orleans. If that Miami pick ends up in the lottery, and maybe the luck of the draw puts it in the top 4, then New Orleans suddenly has the best Beal package. A top 4 pick plus a massive stockpile of future 1sts could beat anyone else's offer. Heck, New Orleans themselves are also flirting with a bottom 5 finish. They could have two lotto picks in this draft. And they're going to be desperate to start turning things around. They don't want Zion to learn the habits of a losing franchise.

EDIT: Wait a minute. New Orleans doesn't have the MIA pick. OKC does.

[Frichuela]

David Aldridge at the Athletic said in a live Q&A yesterday that trading Wiseman and the Minny Pick for Beal would be too much for Golden State...

This is what he said exactly:

"Hollinger and I suggested that before the season started as a possibility, but there's no way GSW's giving you Wiseman AND the Minny pick, unless Steph were to insist. And I don't think he would. I'm guessing they play this out, see who the Wolves' pick becomes and hope that Klay can be something approximating his old self next year."

What do you folks think?

IMO- In such scenario, the Wiz should ask for Wiseman, the Minny pick and an extra GS pick at the minimum.

[nate33]

David Aldridge at the Athletic said in a live Q&A yesterday that trading Wiseman and the Minny Pick for Beal would be too much for Golden State...

This is what he said exactly:

"Hollinger and I suggested that before the season started as a possibility, but there's no way GSW's giving you Wiseman AND the Minny pick, unless Steph were to insist. And I don't think he would. I'm guessing they play this out, see who the Wolves' pick becomes and hope that Klay can be something approximating his old self next year."

What do you folks think?

IMO- In such scenario, the Wiz should ask for Wiseman, the Minny pick and an extra GS pick at the minimum.

I think Aldridge is wrong.