Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[9 and 20]

Took a look at the roster page on nba.com.

Mike Muscala looks like an elf from harry potter. Never seen ears that pointy outside of some ridiculous sci fi movie or a halloween costume. Or maybe it's the angle and they did that man no favors. Kinda hilarious nonetheless.

[Dat2U]

Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Kuzma, Gafford is probably the lineup I like the most. Forces Kispert to be a third option and get shots up.

[leswizards]

If you are anti-tanking and want the wizards to win (as I am), I think these are the most optimistic yet plausible keys to wizards having the best season possible and becoming a playoff team:

1. Kyle Kuzma becomes offensively efficient, and is productive enough to justify the contract he received. (As an anti-Kuzma poster I don’t see it happening, but I would love to be proven wrong.)

2. Jordan Poole plays as well or better than he did from 2020 to 2022, and actually proves to be an upgrade over Bradley Beal (entirely plausible).

3. Danilo Gallinari returns from injury and plays near his career averages, mitigating the loss of Kristaps Porzingis. (Entirely plausible)

4. Cory kispert and Deni keep showing improvement and maybe one or both really drastically improve. (Entirely plausible)

5. Johnny Davis plays well enough to justify his being picked in the lottery. (Probably unlikely)

6. All the minutes that went to taj Gibson and Rui Hachimura go to mike muscala this season, and he proves to be a huge upgrade. (Entirely plausible)

7. All the minutes that went to Will Barton and Kendrick Nunn last season go to Landry Shamet this season, and he proves to be a huge upgrade. (Entirely plausible)

8. Delon Wright, Xavier Cook, Daniel Gafford, and Anthony gill are just as good or better than last season through being healthier or just improving. (Entirely plausible)

9. Bilal Coulibaly is just as productive or better than Jordan Goodwin was last season. (Indeterminate as to the probability)

10. Taj Gibson, Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin jr are no worse than the myriad of players who filled out the end of the bench last season. (Entirely plausible)

Edit
I guess I forgot number 11

11. Tyus Jones proves to be an upgrade over Monte Morris. (Entirely plausible)

[nate33]

3. Danilo Gallinari returns from injury and plays near his career averages, mitigating the loss of Kristaps Porzingis. (Entirely plausible)

This is the one that isn't merely implausible, it is totally out of the realm of possibility.

In a best case scenario, Gallo plays near his career averages, but it certainly wouldn't come close for compensating for the loss of Porzingis. Porzingis was a top 30 player last year (by EPM, BPM, PER and RAPTOR). Gallo wouldn't crack the top 200. He can't move on defense.

All the other things you mention pale in comparison to the significance of the loss of Porzingis. It is the primary reason why this team is much less likely to perform as well as last year.

The other issue is that the bottom feeder teams in the NBA have improved significantly because of the minimum salary rule and the lack of a generational prospect to encourage tanking. Last season, there were 3 teams with fewer than 23 wins. My guess is that there will be zero teams with less than 23 wins this year - maybe 1 if an already bad team has real injury problems.

[leswizards]

3. Danilo Gallinari returns from injury and plays near his career averages, mitigating the loss of Kristaps Porzingis. (Entirely plausible)

This is the one that isn't merely implausible, it is totally out of the realm of possibility.

In a best case scenario, Gallo plays near his career averages, but it certainly wouldn't come close for compensating for the loss of Porzingis. Porzingis was a top 30 player last year (by EPM, BPM, PER and RAPTOR). Gallo wouldn't crack the top 200. He can't move on defense.

All the other things you mention pale in comparison to the significance of the loss of Porzingis. It is the primary reason why this team is much less likely to perform as well as last year.

The other issue is that the bottom feeder teams in the NBA have improved significantly because of the minimum salary rule and the lack of a generational prospect to encourage tanking. Last season, there were 3 teams with fewer than 23 wins. My guess is that there will be zero teams with less than 23 wins this year - maybe 1 if all already bad team has real injury problems.

I said mitigate which implies that he will be a downgrade, but not as bad of a downgrade as people fear. I feel that is entirely plausible if Danilo returns anywhere near his career production level, that Kristaps loss can be mitigated.

Basketball is a team game. I like kristaps porzingis. I wish he was still on the team. But we are talking about 30 mpg out 240 minutes per game. Plus he is injury prone (as is Danilo). Kristaps only played 65 games last season, and the Wizards were 27-38 in those games, while they were 8-9 in games he did not play. I think it is ridiculous to suggest that it is impossible that Danilo can mitigate Kristaps loss.

[doclinkin]

If you are anti-tanking and want the wizards to win (as I am), I think these are the most optimistic yet plausible keys to wizards having the best season possible and becoming a playoff team:

1. Kyle Kuzma becomes offensively efficient, and is productive enough to justify the contract he received. (As an anti-Kuzma poster I don’t see it happening, but I would love to be proven wrong.)

Alternative scenario. Kuzma tweaks something and has to sit. Deni starts. The Deni/Bilal combo proves significantly successful in stymieing opposing offense that the team goes on an implausible streak. The coaching staff decides to ride it. Kuzma comes off the bench while rehabbing, the coaching staff says they like his leadership on the 2nd team. Praise him for his attitude etc. Deni with a new seriousness of purpose, long term contract, and room to make mistakes begins to grow into the role.

4. Cory kispert

...develops chemistry with Tyus Jones, maintaining the high efficiency he has shown in stretches. With the defense and size of Bilal and Deni, the team is able to play Kispert 6th man minutes at guard when either of Jones or Poole sit. His handle improves some, his defense is passable, his leadership qualities come to the fore.

7.... Landry Shamet

Shoots well, stretching defenses, and proving a reliable bail-out target on kick-outs from players who are stopped when driving the paint. Teams who need a 3pt shooting role player make offers. The team demurs at least until after the allstar break when the offers become more serious.

8. Delon Wright

Likewise maintains his solid play. A minor bidding war for his services drives up his asking price at the deadline.

9. Bilal Coulibaly

Starts and plays well. Learning at a prodigious rate.

10. Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin jr)

...show anything like NBA calibre talent. Earning their contracts. Rollins in particular has looked better than his prior stints. Baldwin looks like he should be a better player than the numbers say he is. But so far he is not. He's an enigma. In this scenario, he de-enigma-fies. Turns out his ankle was still bothering him. A Johns Hopkins medical experiment grows him a new ankle. Miracle! Fully healthy, building a bit of muscle his outside shot starts falling, he is no longer timid on defense or rebounding.

11. Tyus Jones

...Is an active and dynamic floor leader in ways that Monte Morris has not been. He makes the case for a starting lead guard with a remarkably efficient stat line, earning serious and significant offers from contenders. The Wiz attempt to re-sign him long term. His presence elevates the play of young developing talent, his poise exemplifies professionalism, providing a steady hand in a positive contrast to the more mercurial and highly talented Poole. Synergy abounds.

I'd add: Muscala provides a change of pace at Center, allowing for stretch line-ups that give freedom to operate underneath.

The early arrival of players who voluntarily joined the team by Sept 1st allows for a quicker start than in years past, catching some teams by surprise who are still integrating new parts.

All this could lead to a surprisingly better than expected mid-season record.

However.

I would still fully expect the new FO to look at the record and understand we are unlikely to advance in the playoffs in any significant way, and sell high on productive players who they do not figure to be with the team over the long term. The returns on the trade will come in future draft capital, deep bench talent, etc. Which may be used to move up in the draft as needed.

[leswizards]

I would still fully expect the new FO to look at the record and understand we are unlikely to advance in the playoffs in any significant way, and sell high on productive players who they do not figure to be with the team over the long term. The returns on the trade will come in future draft capital, deep bench talent, etc. Which may be used to move up in the draft as needed.

To me, that would be pretty much the ideal scenario. The only way to improve upon it would be if the gutted roster was still good enough to make the playoffs and play surprisingly well.

[doclinkin]

I would still fully expect the new FO to look at the record and understand we are unlikely to advance in the playoffs in any significant way, and sell high on productive players who they do not figure to be with the team over the long term. The returns on the trade will come in future draft capital, deep bench talent, etc. Which may be used to move up in the draft as needed.

To me, that would be pretty much the ideal scenario. The only way to improve upon it would be if the gutted roster was still good enough to make the playoffs and play surprisingly well.

Except we lose our draft pick to New York in that case. It is top 12 protected. So unless we backdoor into the play-in games as the last team in, we can't both make the play-offs and keep our pick. I don't think the front office will risk it, and will shut down key players with 'injury' if we are headed that direction.

[Frichuela]

Interesting, so it seems they have waived Cooks and Taj...why did they signed the latter a few weeks ago?

https://x.com/avarwallace/status/1716559410812551410?s=20

[doclinkin]

Interesting, so it seems they have waived Cooks and Taj...why did they signed the latter a few weeks ago?

Read on Twitter

?s=20

They would have kept him if they had been able to work a consolidation trade? The ability of Gallo to play center was unknown at the time?

I'd immediately offer Taj a job as an assistant coach if he'd take it, even as a placeholder. Solid guy, good practice body, excellent work ethic and habits, exemplifies a skillset and toughness the rest of the roster should learn from.

[AFM]

Seems more like a form of money laundering. Here, hold this check for us.

Cooks seems like a no brainer. I'd like Tommy to tell us what he was thinking.

[gambitx777]

Yeah it's a favor to an agent deal hey we need to burn this money here's a free 2. Mill thanks for your service. would not be shocked if Taj ended up on the CS.

Cooks never made sense. I hate Gill but I get why we keep him around.

John brown Jr was a good pick up now we need to get the kid a cheese burger.

I like what we did this year.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[keynote]

Yeah it's a favor to an agent deal hey we need to burn this money here's a free 2. Mill thanks for your service.

Gibson's agent is (checks notes) Mark Bartelstein. This franchise has given him enough favors to last a lifetime. But, credit that to the previous regime.

If we look at Bartelstein's client list through the lends of our rebuilding timeline, Keegan Murray is the most interesting name. Bartelstein also represents Kispert and Baldwin, so there's that.

But has an agent ever repaid a franchise or GM for doing them a solid? "I know Miami is offering more money to play a larger role on a contender, but trust me: Utah is where you want to be."

would not be shocked if Taj ended up on the CS.

I think that's the clear hope. I could also envision a scenario where Taj works with the team as an unofficial consultant and keeps himself fresh in case a contender offers him a Tristan Thompson look-see before the playoffs.

[WallToWall]

Given that Poole, Jones, Avdija, Coulibaly, Kuzma, and Gafford are fast-ish court runners and may benefit from being in a a fast paced offence, where the ball is constantly pushed up court, I am wondering if we should simply try to outrun, and outgun the opponent?
Its only one game into the season, but we have the highest pace in the NBA, at 110.61. If we were to take a few more shots, and/or increase our FG% from 45.8 ever so slightly to the league average, things could get more interesting.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-teams-with-the-fastest-pace-per-game-this-season

[wewillnevertank]

Given that Poole, Jones, Avdija, Coulibaly, Kuzma, and Gafford are fast-ish court runners and may benefit from being in a a fast paced offence, where the ball is constantly pushed up court, I am wondering if we should simply try to outrun, and outgun the opponent?
Its only one game into the season, but we have the highest pace in the NBA, at 110.61. If we were to take a few more shots, and/or increase our FG% from 45.8 ever so slightly to the league average, things could get more interesting.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-teams-with-the-fastest-pace-per-game-this-season

That would require us to put up 125 points a night, and we simply don't have the firepower to pull that off.

Today on 106.7, Wes said he wants the offense to sets the tone for the defense. I think he's got it backwards. We have stoppers on this team (Delon, Bilal, Deni, JD once healthy). The goal should be to focus on stops and then let Kuz and Poole push transition O. We need Gaff to stop chasing big flashy blocks and focus more on positioning and avoiding unnecessary fouls. And as much as I love Delon, he's not a primary creator; he should be playing off ball more.

Wes also really needs to push transition D much more. If we're attacking downhill and miss, we can just writhe on the floor waiting for a call while the opponent sprints back.

[nate33]

I knew the roster was structurally designed to fail because of a total lack of interior defense from the center position, but I didn't expect it to go this successfully! At this point, it's getting embarrassing. We are the worst defense in the league, and our DRtg is 8.6 points/100 lower than the NBA average.

Is it time to make a move and acquire a real NBA center? Heck, a bench rider like Alex Len might be able to start for us. Where is Mo Wagner when you need him?

[nate33]

Looking on the bright side, we have two players who are playing quite well this season: Kuzma and Avdija. And those two guys (as well as Coulibaly) are the only guys locked into a contract for the next 4 or more years. And what's more, those contracts are descending so that they will cost peanuts 3 and 4 years from now when this team is hopefully rising from the ashes.

There may not be much talent on this roster, but at least Winger and Dawkins have locked in the right guys.

[Frichuela]

Looking on the bright side, we have two players who are playing quite well this season: Kuzma and Avdija. And those two guys (as well as Coulibaly) are the only guys locked into a contract for the next 4 or more years. And what's more, those contracts are descending so that they will cost peanuts 3 and 4 years from now when this team is hopefully rising from the ashes.

There may not be much talent on this roster, but at least Winger and Dawkins have locked in the right guys.

Well, those 3 and Poole who is signed until 2027 and having an atrocious season so far: ORtg of 99 and DRtg of 121 per 100 possessions. I believe this is the worst differential amongst our starters…by far.

[nate33]

Looking on the bright side, we have two players who are playing quite well this season: Kuzma and Avdija. And those two guys (as well as Coulibaly) are the only guys locked into a contract for the next 4 or more years. And what's more, those contracts are descending so that they will cost peanuts 3 and 4 years from now when this team is hopefully rising from the ashes.

There may not be much talent on this roster, but at least Winger and Dawkins have locked in the right guys.

Well, those 3 and Poole who is signed until 2027 and having an atrocious season so far: ORtg of 99 and DRtg of 121 per 100 possessions. I believe this is the worst differential amongst our starters…by far.

Yeah, good point. Poole is an albatross. Though to be fair, Poole wasn't technically signed by Winger/Dawkins.

[Frichuela]

Looking on the bright side, we have two players who are playing quite well this season: Kuzma and Avdija. And those two guys (as well as Coulibaly) are the only guys locked into a contract for the next 4 or more years. And what's more, those contracts are descending so that they will cost peanuts 3 and 4 years from now when this team is hopefully rising from the ashes.

There may not be much talent on this roster, but at least Winger and Dawkins have locked in the right guys.

Well, those 3 and Poole who is signed until 2027 and having an atrocious season so far: ORtg of 99 and DRtg of 121 per 100 possessions. I believe this is the worst differential amongst our starters…by far.

Yeah, good point. Poole is an albatross. Though to be fair, Poole wasn't technically signed by Winger/Dawkins.

Agreed. At this stage we better hope and pray that Poole gets his stuff together, otherwise is an albatross as you said (as well as an unnecessary distraction to the development of our younger players).