2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[thinker07]

I think some of the very smart people on this board are missing some concepts to try and analyze the off season.

1) The very biggest thing to consider is that Brooks likely had WAY more input on the signings than Wittman ever did. 5 years for $35 million should tell you that. I think Brooks is likely a far brighter coach than Wittman was. We really don't know what a Brooks coached Wizards team will look like because his last team was SOOO different with KD, Westbrook, Ibaka, etc. So all of these signings have to reflect Brooks' sensibilities which we are not familiar with yet. Burke and Nicholson both came from teams that had WAY too many young players and both got lost in the shuffle. Orlando dumped Nicholson Harkless, Tobias Harris and Oladipo within a year. I think it's quite possible that Nicholson could be a lot better with great coaching and being given a more defined role. The same for Burke. Everyone says that Brooks is great at developing players so now we have a bunch for him to develop along with Satoransky.

2) Sequence is a critical factor. You can't look at all the final contracts everyone signed and compare them against each other. because each contract was signed in a long sequence of constantly shifting circumstances. Hypothetically maybe the Wiz absolutely preferred Biyombo over Mahinmi. The problem was that Orlando jumped on Biyombo before Horford decided. I believe that Dudley and Teletovich both signed before Horford as well. Maybe the Wiz would have preferred either of them instead of Nicholson but they were locked at that moment. Any team has to say what is the smart move THIS moment? Of course five seconds later the underlying assumptions might change.

3) This year the Wizards could not afford to go after Restricted Free Agents for an important player. You can't sign an offer sheet until July 7th and the other team has until July 10th to match. If the team matches then you are absolutely sunk because now there are no decent alternatives available. Maybe Curry would have been better than Burke but he was restricted at the time the Wiz made the trade. Sacramento unexpectedly released him. Ezeli was renounced just before KD signed. I think Dedmon was restricted as well. This year the RFA market is kind of the losers bracket.

4) When a team keeps its powder dry until the end, you can absolutely pick up some bargains among the scraps. Dallas is an example of that regularly. Houston's powder was so dry that they just gave $20 million to Harden because there literally was nothing else useful to spend the money on.

5) I'm not a talent evaluator, so I don't really have an opinion how good Mahinmi or Nicholson or Burke or Satoransky will be on a team coached by a top staff running a system which hasn't been revealed yet (at least to me). I'm not going to "trust" Ernie or "trust" the plan but I will be hopeful and optimistic that Brooks is going to be a MUCH better chef AND he got to pick the groceries.

[Earth2Ted]

I was very surprised we didn't go after a big but old and over the hill name when we missed on KD and Horford - i.e. A Noah, Gasol, Howard type, or possibly trading for a Carmelo, etc. My wild guess is that Scott Brooks stopped that from happening and pushed for the guys we got.

Whether that works or not who knows- I think health and durability will be a big factor. And that has never been on our side...

[bsilver]

Nivek tweeted this out today

Not much context there. Mahinmi should be an upgrade over Nene. Dudley had good WAR, but fell off significantly in 2nd half of year, and couldn't get it done playing PF. Sessions was better than Burke, but Sato wasn't included at all in the stats, and is a combo-guard as was Sessions. Sato's the wildcard. He may make no difference, or could be a big upgrade.

[payitforward]

Not much context there. ...

No need for context. This is data analyzed using a carefully worked out methodology, then presented as a result, as information. Since the same methodology was used to understand last year's players as is being used on this year's players (i.e. the data used is their performance last year, or maybe on their overall career), all the "context" is there; it's just been fed into the methodology. You want to critique it, you have to critique the methodology. Nivek's defence would be that it's been pretty reliable in the past. Narratives about who should or shouldn't be an upgrade carry no weight against that.

Sato wasn't included at all in the stats... a combo-guard as was Sessions. ...He may make no difference, or could be a big upgrade.

Whew... I sure am glad to hear that those are the only possibilities, that no way could he be a downgrade from Sessions -- not even a little as a rookie. It's a real relief to have that possibility eliminated.

[gambitx777]

Not much context there. ...

No need for context. This is data analyzed using a carefully worked out methodology, then presented as a result, as information. Since the same methodology was used to understand last year's players as is being used on this year's players (i.e. the data used is their performance last year, or maybe on their overall career), all the "context" is there; it's just been fed into the methodology. You want to critique it, you have to critique the methodology. Nivek's defence would be that it's been pretty reliable in the past. Narratives about who should or shouldn't be an upgrade carry no weight against that.

Sato wasn't included at all in the stats... a combo-guard as was Sessions. ...He may make no difference, or could be a big upgrade.

Whew... I sure am glad to hear that those are the only possibilities, that no way could he be a downgrade from Sessions -- not even a little as a rookie. It's a real relief to have that possibility eliminated.

Pif you and I have gone about 80 rounds over Sato, the dude was acoule game away from being euroleague finals MVP, if they had won, the dude is not exactly a rookie, he is experienced in big game situations, and has been playing the pro game for a long time. Yes the NBA is a different beast and the 3 PT line is a bit further out, and the game is faster and more physical. But it's not like he is some green euro punk or a kid out of college, he is a seasons euro player. lets have some faith in him to be better than sessions who was not all that good sometimes anyway.

[80sballboy]

Is he worth the risk?
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/sports/2016/07/10/86919818/

[80sballboy]

Like the Jarrett Jack move for the Hawks. Tore his ACL in January and probably won't contribute until 2017 but a solid pickup for the Hawks, who need a backup for Schroder (unless Teague trade falls through). We just can't afford to wait and need younger and quicker behind JW. Kind of wished though he'd finish his career at home.

[gambitx777]

Is he worth the risk?
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/sports/2016/07/10/86919818/

I don't see why not float him a 3 year with options min deal or part of your exceptions or what ever, and see what happens. Worst case cut the dude no har,, best case they get a pretty good center for nothing.

[DCZards]

I think some of the very smart people on this board are missing some concepts to try and analyze the off season.

1) The very biggest thing to consider is that Brooks likely had WAY more input on the signings than Wittman ever did. 5 years for $35 million should tell you that. I think Brooks is likely a far brighter coach than Wittman was. We really don't know what a Brooks coached Wizards team will look like because his last team was SOOO different with KD, Westbrook, Ibaka, etc. So all of these signings have to reflect Brooks' sensibilities which we are not familiar with yet. Burke and Nicholson both came from teams that had WAY too many young players and both got lost in the shuffle. Orlando dumped Nicholson Harkless, Tobias Harris and Oladipo within a year. I think it's quite possible that Nicholson could be a lot better with great coaching and being given a more defined role. The same for Burke. Everyone says that Brooks is great at developing players so now we have a bunch for him to develop along with Satoransky.

2) Sequence is a critical factor. You can't look at all the final contracts everyone signed and compare them against each other. because each contract was signed in a long sequence of constantly shifting circumstances. Hypothetically maybe the Wiz absolutely preferred Biyombo over Mahinmi. The problem was that Orlando jumped on Biyombo before Horford decided. I believe that Dudley and Teletovich both signed before Horford as well. Maybe the Wiz would have preferred either of them instead of Nicholson but they were locked at that moment. Any team has to say what is the smart move THIS moment? Of course five seconds later the underlying assumptions might change.

3) This year the Wizards could not afford to go after Restricted Free Agents for an important player. You can't sign an offer sheet until July 7th and the other team has until July 10th to match. If the team matches then you are absolutely sunk because now there are no decent alternatives available. Maybe Curry would have been better than Burke but he was restricted at the time the Wiz made the trade. Sacramento unexpectedly released him. Ezeli was renounced just before KD signed. I think Dedmon was restricted as well. This year the RFA market is kind of the losers bracket.

4) When a team keeps its powder dry until the end, you can absolutely pick up some bargains among the scraps. Dallas is an example of that regularly. Houston's powder was so dry that they just gave $20 million to Harden because there literally was nothing else useful to spend the money on.

5) I'm not a talent evaluator, so I don't really have an opinion how good Mahinmi or Nicholson or Burke or Satoransky will be on a team coached by a top staff running a system which hasn't been revealed yet (at least to me). I'm not going to "trust" Ernie or "trust" the plan but I will be hopeful and optimistic that Brooks is going to be a MUCH better chef AND he got to pick the groceries.

Thanks for weighing in, Thinker. Always good to hear from you...maybe because your opinion is often fairly consistent with mine. You should post more often.

I've said since he became the Zards new head coach that Brooks would have major input into the Zards personnel moves this offseason. I believe that to be the case…and that the makeup of the roster primarily reflects Brooks' wants and needs. I have high hopes for the development of Nicholson and Burke, especially Nicholson who I think can turn out to be a BIG contributor on the offensive end.

I don't know what the addition of Sato, Burke, Mahinmi, and Nicholson will mean in terms of the team’s on court performance, but it gives me hope knowing that Brooks will be at the helm and knowing that he almost certainly helped pick the groceries he’ll be cooking with.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

To be honest, I don't know why you guys engage with gambit. He comes up with the same wild predictions every offseason and even during the season (while the Wizards are on losing streaks and virtually outta the playoffs...still believes they can grab the # 2 seed lol).
We are not all pessimists, we are just realists. Give it a try sometime!

I'll comment once and let it go, you are making some exaggerations about me and that's fine, I don't particularly care. People "engage" with me because that's what this place it for and it's a place for ideas and opinions to be talked about and expressed, right or wrong. More so that i am not a Millie, or a hands, nor am I like other trolls, nor am I a troll at all really. It's not like I am slobbering all over the nobs of Ted and EG either. I do occasionally have a few smart and meaningful things to say, that positively add to the conversation. Yes I make some off the wall trade Ideas and I do generally live on the bright side of things, but I don't think that that makes me stupid, nor should it lead to me being excluded from the conversation. I have an unpopular opinion right now and I'll take the heat that comes with it. If I am right, I will enjoy having a good team and if I am wrong I will eat crow, admit it and take the beating that I will be sure to get. But this is rather off topic and not really the place to be having this conversation.

I never called you a troll. You do make contributions to this board. No doubt about that.
My issue is we all agree (you included) that the EG and Ted have been screwing up, but you still continue to believe everything will be all good. I just don't see it, that's all.
Sorry, just a frustrated fan. Will stay out of your predictions from now on.

[gambitx777]

To be honest, I don't know why you guys engage with gambit. He comes up with the same wild predictions every offseason and even during the season (while the Wizards are on losing streaks and virtually outta the playoffs...still believes they can grab the # 2 seed lol).
We are not all pessimists, we are just realists. Give it a try sometime!

I'll comment once and let it go, you are making some exaggerations about me and that's fine, I don't particularly care. People "engage" with me because that's what this place it for and it's a place for ideas and opinions to be talked about and expressed, right or wrong. More so that i am not a Millie, or a hands, nor am I like other trolls, nor am I a troll at all really. It's not like I am slobbering all over the nobs of Ted and EG either. I do occasionally have a few smart and meaningful things to say, that positively add to the conversation. Yes I make some off the wall trade Ideas and I do generally live on the bright side of things, but I don't think that that makes me stupid, nor should it lead to me being excluded from the conversation. I have an unpopular opinion right now and I'll take the heat that comes with it. If I am right, I will enjoy having a good team and if I am wrong I will eat crow, admit it and take the beating that I will be sure to get. But this is rather off topic and not really the place to be having this conversation.

I never called you a troll. You do make contributions to this board. No doubt about that.
My issue is we all agree (you included) that the EG and Ted have been screwing up, but you still continue to believe everything will be all good. I just don't see it, that's all.
Sorry, just a frustrated fan. Will stay out of your predictions from now on.

It's all good, I took more offence to how you worded it, feel free to disagree with me I love good conversation and debate. I felt like it was pointed more toward the personal and not so much pointed towards Ideas and opinions. I understand your frustration. I'm just trying to see the forest through the trees, the trees being losing KD, horford and, Ted claiming that everything is going according to plan while EG keeps being EG. and the forest being that we picked up young player, and not too many over the hill guys, we are keeping some spots open for summer league guys to earn a spot, brooks is here and looks to be making some input, and at least IMO this team might not be as bad as some people think it might be!

[bsilver]

Not much context there. ...

No need for context. This is data analyzed using a carefully worked out methodology, then presented as a result, as information. Since the same methodology was used to understand last year's players as is being used on this year's players (i.e. the data used is their performance last year, or maybe on their overall career), all the "context" is there; it's just been fed into the methodology. You want to critique it, you have to critique the methodology. Nivek's defence would be that it's been pretty reliable in the past. Narratives about who should or shouldn't be an upgrade carry no weight against that.

Sato wasn't included at all in the stats... a combo-guard as was Sessions. ...He may make no difference, or could be a big upgrade.

Whew... I sure am glad to hear that those are the only possibilities, that no way could he be a downgrade from Sessions -- not even a little as a rookie. It's a real relief to have that possibility eliminated.

The data was presented as data only in the original post, and some were using the data to show that the 2016-7 team is not as good as the 2015-6 team. It shows nothing of the sort. It only shows comparative WARs, with the omission of Sato.
No one to be taken seriously uses the data only to make a point. The argument must contain the corresponding analysis. As opposed to "no need for context", the opposite is true. Context is everything. As popularized by Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[tontoz]

I think some of the very smart people on this board are missing some concepts to try and analyze the off season.


2) Sequence is a critical factor. You can't look at all the final contracts everyone signed and compare them against each other. because each contract was signed in a long sequence of constantly shifting circumstances. Hypothetically maybe the Wiz absolutely preferred Biyombo over Mahinmi. The problem was that Orlando jumped on Biyombo before Horford decided. I believe that Dudley and Teletovich both signed before Horford as well. Maybe the Wiz would have preferred either of them instead of Nicholson but they were locked at that moment. Any team has to say what is the smart move THIS moment? Of course five seconds later the underlying assumptions might change.

Horford announced he agreed on terms with the Celtics on 7/2. Contracts couldn't be signed until the 7th. Any agreement before 7/7 wasn't binding. Verbal agreements are nothing more than promises which can be, and have been, broken.

For example:

Free agent forward Hedo Turkoglu changed his mind Friday and decided not to join the Portland Trail Blazers, opting instead to accept a five-year $53 million offer from the Toronto Raptors, sources told ESPN.com.

The decision left the Blazers livid and was a huge coup for the Raptors, who have promised Turkoglu all of the salary-cap space they will have from renouncing their rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino, which will likely add up to a starting salary in the $10.1 million range, with eight percent annual raises.

http://espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4305310

[DCZards]

I think some of the very smart people on this board are missing some concepts to try and analyze the off season.


2) Sequence is a critical factor. You can't look at all the final contracts everyone signed and compare them against each other. because each contract was signed in a long sequence of constantly shifting circumstances. Hypothetically maybe the Wiz absolutely preferred Biyombo over Mahinmi. The problem was that Orlando jumped on Biyombo before Horford decided. I believe that Dudley and Teletovich both signed before Horford as well. Maybe the Wiz would have preferred either of them instead of Nicholson but they were locked at that moment. Any team has to say what is the smart move THIS moment? Of course five seconds later the underlying assumptions might change.

Horford announced he agreed on terms with the Celtics on 7/2. Contracts couldn't be signed until the 7th. Any agreement before 7/7 wasn't binding. Verbal agreements are nothing more than promises which can be, and have been, broken.

Breaking verbal agreements is a bad idea. When a team doesn't keep its word, agents and players take note because it could do real financial harm to a player who might have lost out on another opportunity by making a verbal commitment to your team.

Being seen as a front office that can't be trusted to keep its word will almost certainly make signing players and cutting deals more difficult for your franchise down the road.

I can't think of many, if any, verbal agreements that were broken by a team this year or in the past. Can you?

[tontoz]

I think some of the very smart people on this board are missing some concepts to try and analyze the off season.


2) Sequence is a critical factor. You can't look at all the final contracts everyone signed and compare them against each other. because each contract was signed in a long sequence of constantly shifting circumstances. Hypothetically maybe the Wiz absolutely preferred Biyombo over Mahinmi. The problem was that Orlando jumped on Biyombo before Horford decided. I believe that Dudley and Teletovich both signed before Horford as well. Maybe the Wiz would have preferred either of them instead of Nicholson but they were locked at that moment. Any team has to say what is the smart move THIS moment? Of course five seconds later the underlying assumptions might change.

Horford announced he agreed on terms with the Celtics on 7/2. Contracts couldn't be signed until the 7th. Any agreement before 7/7 wasn't binding. Verbal agreements are nothing more than promises which can be, and have been, broken.

Breaking verbal agreements is a bad idea. When a team doesn't keep its word, agents and players take note because it could do real financial harm to a player who might have lost out on another opportunity by making a verbal commitment to your team.

Being seen as a front office that can't be trusted to keep its word will almost certainly make signing players and cutting deals more difficult for your franchise down the road.

I can't think of many, if any, verbal agreements that were broken by a team this year or in the past. Can you?

I am not talking about teams breaking agreements, although that does happen. The Bulls pulled their offer to Ben Gordon after a few months and he ended up playing for the QO after his rookie deal was up.

I am talking about players breaking agreements, which Deandre Jordan did just last summer. He announced an agreement with the Mavs and then the Clippers put on the full court press and he changed his mind.

[LyricalRico]

Horford announced he agreed on terms with the Celtics on 7/2. Contracts couldn't be signed until the 7th. Any agreement before 7/7 wasn't binding. Verbal agreements are nothing more than promises which can be, and have been, broken.

Breaking verbal agreements is a bad idea. When a team doesn't keep its word, agents and players take note because it could do real financial harm to a player who might have lost out on another opportunity by making a verbal commitment to your team.

Being seen as a front office that can't be trusted to keep its word will almost certainly make signing players and cutting deals more difficult for your franchise down the road.

I can't think of many, if any, verbal agreements that were broken by a team this year or in the past. Can you?

I am not talking about teams breaking agreements, although that does happen. The Bulls pulled their offer to Ben Gordon after a few months and he ended up playing for the QO after his rookie deal was up.

I am talking about players breaking agreements, which Deandre Jordan did just last summer. He announced an agreement with the Mavs and then the Clippers put on the full court press and he changed his mind.

Didn't Hedo Turkgolu and John Salmons both do that a few years ago? I think Hedo backed out of a deal with Phoenix to go to Toronto, and Salmons went to Sacramento after first agreeing with someone else.

[tontoz]

Didn't Hedo Turkgolu and John Salmons both do that a few years ago? I think Hedo backed out of a deal with Phoenix to go to Toronto, and Salmons went to Sacramento after first agreeing with someone else.

Hedo backed out on the Blazers, doing them a favor as it turned out. Don't remember Salmons, but verbal agreements don't really mean much.

[LyricalRico]

Didn't Hedo Turkgolu and John Salmons both do that a few years ago? I think Hedo backed out of a deal with Phoenix to go to Toronto, and Salmons went to Sacramento after first agreeing with someone else.

Hedo backed out on the Blazers, doing them a favor as it turned out. Don't remember Salmons, but verbal agreements don't really mean much.

That's right, it was Salmons that backed out of a deal with Phoenix. I guess he also did them a favor. LOL

[payitforward]

Not much context there. ...

No need for context. This is data analyzed using a carefully worked out methodology, then presented as a result, as information. Since the same methodology was used to understand last year's players as is being used on this year's players (i.e. the data used is their performance last year, or maybe on their overall career), all the "context" is there; it's just been fed into the methodology. You want to critique it, you have to critique the methodology. Nivek's defence would be that it's been pretty reliable in the past. Narratives about who should or shouldn't be an upgrade carry no weight against that.

Sato wasn't included at all in the stats... a combo-guard as was Sessions. ...He may make no difference, or could be a big upgrade.

Whew... I sure am glad to hear that those are the only possibilities, that no way could he be a downgrade from Sessions -- not even a little as a rookie. It's a real relief to have that possibility eliminated.

Pif you and I have gone about 80 rounds over Sato,

Ain't it the truth -- and where we are in accord is to hope Tomas will be an outstanding NBA player and make a big positive difference for the Wizards. This year would be best, of course, but in any case I hope he gets better and better in his 3 years with us.

...the dude was acoule game away from being euroleague finals MVP, if they had won, the dude is not exactly a rookie, he is experienced in big game situations, and has been playing the pro game for a long time. Yes the NBA is a different beast and the 3 PT line is a bit further out, and the game is faster and more physical. But it's not like he is some green euro punk or a kid out of college, he is a seasons euro player.

You might want to read what Tomas himself says about transitioning to and learning the NBA game. He seems to think it'll be harder, more complicated, and take him longer than you do!

lets have some faith in him to be better than sessions who was not all that good sometimes anyway.

If you mean this year, i.e. right away, no that's not remotely likely to happen. That'd be a miracle.

Better to think about this way: I would much rather have Satoransky than Sessions. He's 25 years old, and at his salary he is a very low-cost risk. He'll be an enormous bargain if he's good at all, and, if he is good, he's a legitimate candidate to help build this team in the mid- and long-term, which should be our focus.

In other words, I'm extremely positive about the fact that we signed Tomas Satoransky; it's certainly the best thing that's happened this off season.

[payitforward]

Is he worth the risk?
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/sports/2016/07/10/86919818/

I don't see why not float him a 3 year with options min deal or part of your exceptions or what ever, and see what happens. Worst case cut the dude no har,, best case they get a pretty good center for nothing.

Absolutely! Except "best case" is they get a star -- he's a tremendous talent. But... it's hard for me to imagine Ernie signing him.