gtn130 wrote:bsilver wrote:cammac wrote:As a outsider I look at 2 flawed candidates both have significant baggage and neither should be running to become President of the USA. That said Hillary is by far the only choice in this election but I also hope she is a one term President with a Democrat rival challenging her in 2020.
The Republican Party is in crux they are non competitive with growing areas of the American demographics and the Trump candidacy has set back any outreach by 10 years. Right now the Republican party is divided in 3 groups Tea Party, Evangelists and pragmatic right of center Conservatives. The Tea Party will follow the red meat slightly crazy conspiracy theory political agenda of Trump and Fox News. The Evangelists are a interesting group and right now they are a very united constituency for the Republican Party but that can change. In Canada we had that version for many years in Quebec with the Catholic Church where the priests would basically dictate on how the flock should vote and obviously this was in the more rural areas of the Province. That changed people began to look at there circumstances and began to vote what was best for them rather than the clergy. The Catholic Church was slowly disassembled in the Province to a shadow of it's former glory and in fact Quebec has a low rate of Christians in the Province.
The USA has a higher percentage of religious followers (all religions) than most Western Democracies and that trend will reach the USA in due time.
If the Republican Party loses even 5% of its target constituency they become the 21st Century equivalent to the Whig Party.
With this election you really have to add the 4th group that is behind the Trump candidacy, the "aggrieved white". They may overlap with the Tea Party, but probably should be considered separately. Assuming Trump loses, I wonder if any 2020 candidate will go after this group, or if Trump will be their only champion.
Trump's
largest and
strongest group of supporters is middle class suburban white people - the aggrieved white man being cheated by the FAILING ECONOMY is mostly but not entirely a red herring. His supporters are simply afraid of minorities and want to preserve their utopian white fantasy where they don't have to perform in a global economy.
Maybe they're not entitled to their grievances, but that doesn't mean they don't feel that way. Among the beliefs of hardcore supporters are:
Minorities are getting preferential treatment in jobs.
Minorities are lazy and prefer to get government benefits rather than work.
Immigration, especially Hispanics, are taking their jobs.
Liberal environmental policies are taking their jobs.
The liberal elite looks down on them and feels and acts superior.
Government trade policies work against the white working man.
Their future is bleak unless there are radical government changes. I.e., mainstream R and D policies offer no hope for them.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics — quote popularized by Mark Twain.