Wizards 2019 Draft thread. (Tank for Zion, or OTHER NAME HERE)

[Illmatic12]

Samanic reminds me a lot of the Brooklyn Nets rookie - Rodions Kuruc. He was the 40th pick and played really well for them, he was selected to the rookie-soph game iirc.

Watch on YouTube

Kurucs was expected to be a typical floor spacing big, but the aspect of his game that got overlooked was his underrated athleticism and quickness. He’s able to take other bigs off the dribble when they run him off the 3pt line. And on defense , it turns out that he can actually switch and slide his feet with guards so he makes for a useful small ball C.

[Dat2U]

Spoiler:

I saw that article, hence the 28-32 guards angle I mentioned. Other articles suggest age 29-30, sports in general suggest 25-29 across all fields. Efficiency can get better for a while as players age and mature, and that article makes a compelling argument that learning the craft of Point Guard, or even 2 Guard, can be more taxing than figuring out the 3, 4 or playing Center. I could potentially see that. I can also see that players get worse over time as they age, and definitely as they age into their thirties. Rule changes certainly make it a friendlier league for thirty somethings, ditto a better understanding of nutrition and training (weights, pilates, yoga etc).

I think the last paragraph summarizes where we just see things differently. To me your contending, or rebuilding. You never, ever, want to be caught in the middle. The Beal situation is simple. We have no means by which to build around him. Others have addressed this more effectively than I have, but to sum up my perspective on it: we couldn't win squat with young, hyper athletic Beal and Wall, what are we going to accomplish with older/old Beal, and broken down never gonna be the same Wall eating up franchise player money? You mention that we can do things. Yes, but the things we can do are tinkering. We will not attract prime free agents because we can't pay them. We can't attract second tier guys because they know we're screwed, we can just attract guys looking for pay days, and guys looking to be found like Thomas Bryant. The latter are great, and lovely, but not remotely franchise changing. They are the sprinkles on the Sunday, not the banana, the ice cream, or the whip cream. I have no issue w/what Chicago did. They were right to do it. They were trapped w/players that wouldn't play together, and did the best they could to rebuild. They aren't saddled with cap killing contracts, they are flexible, and have the chance to become something, even if right now they are nothing. I would take their situation over ours 1,000,000 times out of 1,000,000 because hope is actually possible there. It isn't with us.

If you want to watch Beal play all NBA third team basketball for a 20 something win to me for the foreseeable future that's your prerogative. I just cannot understand why that would ever trump hope for competing. Especially in a town where we've seen the Redskins tread water at the 4-12 to 8-8 level for decades with plenty of Beal-like talents to help caulk over the "suck" and misery of decade after decade of crappy, incompetent football. Keeping Beal is a recipe for that, and btw, if you love watching him play, I don't know, maybe kill two birds with one stone, get a truck load of assets for him, and let him go out there and accomplish something great with a. competent organization while we try to build a competent organization from scratch, because that's what we're literally doing, except unlike in track, where your staggered lane 1 has two turns to advantage you, the wizards have nothing but a long, long, long staggered lane 1, with no turns whatsoever, just a helluvalot of catching up to do. We can either start now, sometime this season, by the '21 decade, or when Beal leaves during the Summer of '21 (maybe he stays, but it would be a truly horrific decision for him to do so, and would actually indict him and his ambitions. He owes us nothing after giving us 10 years of excellent play, and should go barring some Zion-like transformative franchise lottery victory). I'd rather do it now, or the '20 deadline, whenever we can get the best offer.

Why is the baseline for this team “20 something wins”? I see that Nate and a few others already challenged that point. Can’t just throw something like that out there without defending your position imo . We don’t even know who’s going to be on the team next season , not to talk of the foreseeable future.

If you’re using this past season as evidence - I would simply point out that Washington had an NBA-record 28 players who suited up for them. They also lost the most man-games to injury of any team in the league. No need to rehash everything that happened but it was certainly one of the strangest seasons I’ve witnessed, the amount of roster flux and players who were injured/playing through injuries was highly abnormal. The team also dropped the final 5 games on purpose by sitting Beal in 2H. With a more stable + healthy situation we can expect more competitive squads.

Don’t get me wrong, if Grunfeld was still in charge I might be right in line with your thinking. But I wouldn’t be suggesting this route if I didn’t think our next front office could put a competitive team around Beal. And it looks increasingly likely that FO will be spearheaded by Tim Connelly and Tommy Sheppard - both highly regarded execs who are known around the league as incredibly hard workers. Those guys came up the ranks from a scouting background and love the challenge. Not like the last several Wizards GMs, former players who are coasting off of their names to land cushy positions. So a major reason for optimism is that we’re going to see a marked increase in the productivity of our front office. Yesterday NBC Wash broadcasted from Chicago at the NBA Combine and I heard Chris Miller mention that the team was in talks to acquire a 2nd round draft selection from Philadelphia (76ers own this years #33 and #34) . That’s the kind of proactive thinking we’re not used to from the Wiz FO, but it’s what they’ll need moving forward to make this work.

The other aspect of this is Ernie’s buddy, Scott Brooks. The new regime will want their own guy and I fully expect Brooks to be relieved within the next ~12 months. Go through any GT on here from last season, we all documented in real time how many wins turned into losses due to Brooks awful , stubborn rotations. Wouldn’t you agree that an upgrade at the head coaching position will instantly add wins and raise our floor?


You look around the league and see teams like Miami, Brooklyn who have no superstar players. But they roll out 7-8 scrappy guys no ones ever heard of who buy into a team concept and are able to win ~40ish games and compete for the postseason. Or Indiana who has Oladipo and a
collection of role players but can grind out ~50 wins.

I say; give me Bradley Beal + 6-7 underrated role players who are healthy and play hard, and that can be a fun 38-42 win team (including developing young guys like Bryant, Brown, our draft picks) that’s in the mix for a 7-8th seed in the East. Replace Scott Brooks with anyone competent , and your potential is even higher than that. In 2020 if Wall comes back to even 75% of what he was, no more foot pain and is moving better defensively, you start to look at a team that can make playoffs consistently and even advance depending on matchups. And if you get a godfather deal for Beal at any point , you can always look into it and pull the trigger. No need to panic.

38-42 wins?

With who?

Who's the 2nd option. Who's the 3rd option? What's our bench! Now find these options with no available cap room

It would take a miracle worker to get this squad enough quality players to make the playoffs.

Mind you, the Nets were not an overnight success story. It took a few seasons to build a completely mediocre team of mostly no names that barely made the playoffs in the East and quietly bowed out in the first round.

[Illmatic12]

Spoiler:

I saw that article, hence the 28-32 guards angle I mentioned. Other articles suggest age 29-30, sports in general suggest 25-29 across all fields. Efficiency can get better for a while as players age and mature, and that article makes a compelling argument that learning the craft of Point Guard, or even 2 Guard, can be more taxing than figuring out the 3, 4 or playing Center. I could potentially see that. I can also see that players get worse over time as they age, and definitely as they age into their thirties. Rule changes certainly make it a friendlier league for thirty somethings, ditto a better understanding of nutrition and training (weights, pilates, yoga etc).

I think the last paragraph summarizes where we just see things differently. To me your contending, or rebuilding. You never, ever, want to be caught in the middle. The Beal situation is simple. We have no means by which to build around him. Others have addressed this more effectively than I have, but to sum up my perspective on it: we couldn't win squat with young, hyper athletic Beal and Wall, what are we going to accomplish with older/old Beal, and broken down never gonna be the same Wall eating up franchise player money? You mention that we can do things. Yes, but the things we can do are tinkering. We will not attract prime free agents because we can't pay them. We can't attract second tier guys because they know we're screwed, we can just attract guys looking for pay days, and guys looking to be found like Thomas Bryant. The latter are great, and lovely, but not remotely franchise changing. They are the sprinkles on the Sunday, not the banana, the ice cream, or the whip cream. I have no issue w/what Chicago did. They were right to do it. They were trapped w/players that wouldn't play together, and did the best they could to rebuild. They aren't saddled with cap killing contracts, they are flexible, and have the chance to become something, even if right now they are nothing. I would take their situation over ours 1,000,000 times out of 1,000,000 because hope is actually possible there. It isn't with us.

If you want to watch Beal play all NBA third team basketball for a 20 something win to me for the foreseeable future that's your prerogative. I just cannot understand why that would ever trump hope for competing. Especially in a town where we've seen the Redskins tread water at the 4-12 to 8-8 level for decades with plenty of Beal-like talents to help caulk over the "suck" and misery of decade after decade of crappy, incompetent football. Keeping Beal is a recipe for that, and btw, if you love watching him play, I don't know, maybe kill two birds with one stone, get a truck load of assets for him, and let him go out there and accomplish something great with a. competent organization while we try to build a competent organization from scratch, because that's what we're literally doing, except unlike in track, where your staggered lane 1 has two turns to advantage you, the wizards have nothing but a long, long, long staggered lane 1, with no turns whatsoever, just a helluvalot of catching up to do. We can either start now, sometime this season, by the '21 decade, or when Beal leaves during the Summer of '21 (maybe he stays, but it would be a truly horrific decision for him to do so, and would actually indict him and his ambitions. He owes us nothing after giving us 10 years of excellent play, and should go barring some Zion-like transformative franchise lottery victory). I'd rather do it now, or the '20 deadline, whenever we can get the best offer.

Why is the baseline for this team “20 something wins”? I see that Nate and a few others already challenged that point. Can’t just throw something like that out there without defending your position imo . We don’t even know who’s going to be on the team next season , not to talk of the foreseeable future.

If you’re using this past season as evidence - I would simply point out that Washington had an NBA-record 28 players who suited up for them. They also lost the most man-games to injury of any team in the league. No need to rehash everything that happened but it was certainly one of the strangest seasons I’ve witnessed, the amount of roster flux and players who were injured/playing through injuries was highly abnormal. The team also dropped the final 5 games on purpose by sitting Beal in 2H. With a more stable + healthy situation we can expect more competitive squads.

Don’t get me wrong, if Grunfeld was still in charge I might be right in line with your thinking. But I wouldn’t be suggesting this route if I didn’t think our next front office could put a competitive team around Beal. And it looks increasingly likely that FO will be spearheaded by Tim Connelly and Tommy Sheppard - both highly regarded execs who are known around the league as incredibly hard workers. Those guys came up the ranks from a scouting background and love the challenge. Not like the last several Wizards GMs, former players who are coasting off of their names to land cushy positions. So a major reason for optimism is that we’re going to see a marked increase in the productivity of our front office. Yesterday NBC Wash broadcasted from Chicago at the NBA Combine and I heard Chris Miller mention that the team was in talks to acquire a 2nd round draft selection from Philadelphia (76ers own this years #33 and #34) . That’s the kind of proactive thinking we’re not used to from the Wiz FO, but it’s what they’ll need moving forward to make this work.

The other aspect of this is Ernie’s buddy, Scott Brooks. The new regime will want their own guy and I fully expect Brooks to be relieved within the next ~12 months. Go through any GT on here from last season, we all documented in real time how many wins turned into losses due to Brooks awful , stubborn rotations. Wouldn’t you agree that an upgrade at the head coaching position will instantly add wins and raise our floor?


You look around the league and see teams like Miami, Brooklyn who have no superstar players. But they roll out 7-8 scrappy guys no ones ever heard of who buy into a team concept and are able to win ~40ish games and compete for the postseason. Or Indiana who has Oladipo and a
collection of role players but can grind out ~50 wins.

I say; give me Bradley Beal + 6-7 underrated role players who are healthy and play hard, and that can be a fun 38-42 win team (including developing young guys like Bryant, Brown, our draft picks) that’s in the mix for a 7-8th seed in the East. Replace Scott Brooks with anyone competent , and your potential is even higher than that. In 2020 if Wall comes back to even 75% of what he was, no more foot pain and is moving better defensively, you start to look at a team that can make playoffs consistently and even advance depending on matchups. And if you get a godfather deal for Beal at any point , you can always look into it and pull the trigger. No need to panic.

38-42 wins?

With who?

Who's the 2nd option. Who's the 3rd option? What's our bench! Now find these options with no available cap room

It would take a miracle worker to get this squad enough quality players to make the playoffs.

Mind you, the Nets were not an overnight success story. It took a few seasons to build a completely mediocre team of mostly no names that barely made the playoffs in the East and quietly bowed out in the first round.

Get back to me in September after FO hirings, draft, free agency

And if things don’t work out and we miss playoffs, we’ll have much more cap space next summer + another lotto pick

[DCZards]

If you keep Beal and manage to squeeze out enough wins to make the playoffs, your young ballers like Brown and Bryant will be developing and learning how to win...and you’ll still likely end up with a top 20 draft pick next season and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If you keep Beal and don’t make the playoffs, you’re a lottery team with decent odds of coming away with a top 5 pick in the draft and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If a true godfather deal comes along for Beal, you take it and run. But that deal would have to include a young player with all-star potential and a few high draft picks.

Those are all win-win situations for the Zards, imo.

[doclinkin]

I watched a bunch of the Combine.... Anyone else?

Bunch of guys did themselves good. Viz...

Read on Twitter

Nice defense. Good instincts on both sides. Good range. He's a player in this league. Yes.

[Dat2U]

If you keep Beal and manage to squeeze out enough wins to make the playoffs, your young ballers like Brown and Bryant will be developing and learning how to win...and you’ll still likely end up with a top 20 draft pick next season and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If you keep Beal and don’t make the playoffs, you’re a lottery team with decent odds of coming away with a top 5 pick in the draft and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If a true godfather deal comes along for Beal, you take it and run. But that deal would have to include a young player with all-star potential and a few high draft picks.

Those are all win-win situations for the Zards, imo.

Your definition of win-win is depressing.

More likely, if we don't trade Beal now, we'll be forced to trade him later and get less in return.

I've heard "wait and see" from you and others for years. It's a lousy plan, always has been and always will be.

[Dat2U]

I watched a bunch of the Combine.... Anyone else?

Bunch of guys did themselves good. Viz...

Read on Twitter

Nice defense. Good instincts on both sides. Good range. He's a player in this league. Yes.

Trade down! Trade down! By all means I think we should trade down! I'm all in on white boys this year (no hom*.... ). Herro, Bitadze, Windler, Samanic! I'd love 2 of them on the roster!

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

[DCZards]

If you keep Beal and manage to squeeze out enough wins to make the playoffs, your young ballers like Brown and Bryant will be developing and learning how to win...and you’ll still likely end up with a top 20 draft pick next season and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If you keep Beal and don’t make the playoffs, you’re a lottery team with decent odds of coming away with a top 5 pick in the draft and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If a true godfather deal comes along for Beal, you take it and run. But that deal would have to include a young player with all-star potential and a few high draft picks.

Those are all win-win situations for the Zards, imo.

Your definition of win-win is depressing.

More likely, if we don't trade Beal now, we'll be forced to trade him later and get less in return.

I've heard "wait and see" from you and others for years. It's a lousy plan, always has been and always will be.

Different strokes for different folks.

[Dat2U]

Read on Twitter

[Illmatic12]

Read on Twitter

Pels - Zion
Grizz - Morant
Knicks - Barrett
Lakers - Garland
Cavs - Hunter
Suns - Culver
Bulls -
Hawks - ??
Wizards - ??
Hawks - ??

The Athletic’s Hawks insiders have been saying that the FO has been enamored with Cam Reddish. What are the chances Doumbouya falls to us at 9?

I think we need to figure out who’s going to take Reddish. If he’s gone before the Hawks pick then I think Atlanta will steal Sekou, and we’ll be stuck with Nassir Little , Coby White or someone.

[The Consiglieri]

If you keep Beal and manage to squeeze out enough wins to make the playoffs, your young ballers like Brown and Bryant will be developing and learning how to win...and you’ll still likely end up with a top 20 draft pick next season and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If you keep Beal and don’t make the playoffs, you’re a lottery team with decent odds of coming away with a top 5 pick in the draft and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If a true godfather deal comes along for Beal, you take it and run. But that deal would have to include a young player with all-star potential and a few high draft picks.

Those are all win-win situations for the Zards, imo.

Did Arenas and and Jamison accomplish this for Blatche, McGee and Young? No. Did Beal, Wall, and Gortat do this for Oubre? No. Did Webber, and Howard get this down with Rod Strickland? No.

This is a tired old saw that's just not true. Success carries over when you build a great team. It doesn't suddenly materialize with the fairy dust of a quiet early exit in round 1 of the playoffs. I know people badly want to believe in the idea that a taste of the playoffs makes a consistent playoff entrant and contender but it doesn't. What makes that happen is when you build a good team/land the right elite all star caliber players, period.

[DCZards]

If you keep Beal and manage to squeeze out enough wins to make the playoffs, your young ballers like Brown and Bryant will be developing and learning how to win...and you’ll still likely end up with a top 20 draft pick next season and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If you keep Beal and don’t make the playoffs, you’re a lottery team with decent odds of coming away with a top 5 pick in the draft and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.

If a true godfather deal comes along for Beal, you take it and run. But that deal would have to include a young player with all-star potential and a few high draft picks.

Those are all win-win situations for the Zards, imo.

Did Arenas and and Jamison accomplish this for Blatche, McGee and Young? No. Did Beal, Wall, and Gortat do this for Oubre? No. Did Webber, and Howard get this down with Rod Strickland? No.

This is a tired old saw that's just not true. Success carries over when you build a great team. It doesn't suddenly materialize with the fairy dust of a quiet early exit in round 1 of the playoffs. I know people badly want to believe in the idea that a taste of the playoffs makes a consistent playoff entrant and contender but it doesn't. What makes that happen is when you build a good team/land the right elite all star caliber players, period.

Agreed. I'm certainly not suggesting that this is all that has to happen.

But it does help to have at least one all-star caliber player like Beal in the fold from the outset. I'd argue that it's easier to find (or draft) one or two all-stars to add into the mix with Beal (and Wall) than it is to trade the all-star you have and then hope to draft 2-3 all-stars in the near future. That seems like common sense to me.

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

Pels - Zion
Grizz - Morant
Knicks - Barrett
Lakers - Garland
Cavs - Hunter
Suns - Culver
Bulls -
Hawks - ??
Wizards - ??
Hawks - ??

The Athletic’s Hawks insiders have been saying that the FO has been enamored with Cam Reddish. What are the chances Doumbouya falls to us at 9?

I think we need to figure out who’s going to take Reddish. If he’s gone before the Hawks pick then I think Atlanta will steal Sekou, and we’ll be stuck with Nassir Little , Coby White or someone.

Yep I think the Hawks could target him at #8.

Samanic had a crazy combine.

Blake Griffin
6'10
6'11 wingspan
35" max vert

Samanic
6'11
6'10 wingspan
38" max vert

+ His cone and sprint times.

[Illmatic12]

Read on Twitter

Pels - Zion
Grizz - Morant
Knicks - Barrett
Lakers - Garland
Cavs - Hunter
Suns - Culver
Bulls -
Hawks - ??
Wizards - ??
Hawks - ??

The Athletic’s Hawks insiders have been saying that the FO has been enamored with Cam Reddish. What are the chances Doumbouya falls to us at 9?

I think we need to figure out who’s going to take Reddish. If he’s gone before the Hawks pick then I think Atlanta will steal Sekou, and we’ll be stuck with Nassir Little , Coby White or someone.

Yep I think the Hawks could target him at #8.

Samanic had a crazy combine.

Blake Griffin
6'10
6'11 wingspan
35" max vert

Samanic
6'11
6'10 wingspan
38" max vert

+ His cone and sprint times.

I think the Hawks will target Reddish, because he’s more of a defensive prospect that can guard guards which is what they need next to Trae Young.

But if Reddish goes before their #8 pick, I wonder if they wouldn’t just gamble on Doumbouya at that point.

I have no idea where Samanic will be mocked. Maybe that’s a trade back option

[tontoz]

ESPN's current mock:

1 Zion
2 Ja
3 Barrett
4 Garland
5 Hunter
6 Culver
7 Coby
8 Reddish
9 Sekou
10 Jaxon
11 Clarke
12 PJ
13 Bol
14 Porter


They have Samanic in the 2nd round.

I think Euros tend to be underrated in the draft so there is a good chance Sekou and Semanic will both be on the board at 9.

[nate33]

Doc really nailed it with this great post:

Basically our only hope of a championship is the same as almost every other team: that Zion-like transformative franchise player (ZLTFP). Your feeling is we can only land him by swapping Beal for at most one or two extra bites at that apple. Maybe then we get better luck with a few % points better odds. And if not then we add talented players. Ok.

My feeling is: if we get lucky we get lucky. But. Trading Beal subtracts one skilled player who helps any young talent we do land to actually reach that potential. He is a good mentor. Plays hard on defense. Is coachable. Improving. Has learned to kick his skittles habit and fix his nutrition and conditioning. He passes the ball and rewards you with assists when you pass to him.

Swapping that out for a few young players who may develop. Or a couple more chances at that ZLTFP. Doesn’t seem like the best road to contention. In an era where mediocre teams are just about as likely as the bottom feeders to get the top ZLTFP in any draft.

If we keep Beal, in three years or so, we will have Beal plus an (X)% chance and another superstar. If we trade Beal, we will have no Beal and an (X+Y)% chance at a superstar. If Y was a really big number, I'd consider it. But it isn't. With the new lottery odds, Y is a fairly small number. I'd rather keep Beal. And if that X percent chance pans out, we will have Beal AND a superstar, which is the foundation for a championship team.

[tontoz]

Read on Twitter

Pels - Zion
Grizz - Morant
Knicks - Barrett
Lakers - Garland
Cavs - Hunter
Suns - Culver
Bulls -
Hawks - ??
Wizards - ??
Hawks - ??

The Athletic’s Hawks insiders have been saying that the FO has been enamored with Cam Reddish. What are the chances Doumbouya falls to us at 9?

I think we need to figure out who’s going to take Reddish. If he’s gone before the Hawks pick then I think Atlanta will steal Sekou, and we’ll be stuck with Nassir Little , Coby White or someone.

Yep I think the Hawks could target him at #8.

Samanic had a crazy combine.

Blake Griffin
6'10
6'11 wingspan
35" max vert

Samanic
6'11
6'10 wingspan
38" max vert

+ His cone and sprint times.

Samanic's standing reach of 8'11" is pretty good for a 4. Blake was at 8'9".

[tontoz]

Luka Samanic vid. He will probably move up the mocks soon. Skinny but weighed 227 at the combine which isn't too bad. Good athletic testing and seems to have good skills.

Watch on YouTube

[Dat2U]

Read on Twitter

Pels - Zion
Grizz - Morant
Knicks - Barrett
Lakers - Garland
Cavs - Hunter
Suns - Culver
Bulls -
Hawks - ??
Wizards - ??
Hawks - ??

The Athletic’s Hawks insiders have been saying that the FO has been enamored with Cam Reddish. What are the chances Doumbouya falls to us at 9?

I think we need to figure out who’s going to take Reddish. If he’s gone before the Hawks pick then I think Atlanta will steal Sekou, and we’ll be stuck with Nassir Little , Coby White or someone.

My guess so far:

1. NOH PF Zion Williamson
2. MEM PG Ja Morant
3. NYK GF R.J. Barrett
4. LAL PG Darius Garland
5. CLE GF Jarrett Culver
6. PHX PG Coby White
7. LAL CE Jaxson Hayes (CHI trades pick for Lonzo Ball +)
8. ATL SF DeAndre Hunter