2020 Draft

[nate33]

The trade down with Boston continues to look like an outstanding opportunity -- even if we only got 14 & 26.

If I shared the "as close to 'can't miss' as possible" grade on Achiuwa that I think WD has, then that would likely change my mind.

I kinda like Achiuwa and wouldn't mind drafting him, but I'm not so in love with him that I'd draft him at #9. I'd happily trade down the #14 and #26 and gamble that he is still there at #14. I haven't seen many mocks that have him higher than 16th or so.

Landing Achiuwa at #14 and a good guard like Flynn at #26 would be nice. Or if Achiuwa is gone, then we pick a scoring wing like Nesmith at #14 and find a defensive big like Reed or Tillman at #26.

[payitforward]

I would never trust draft experts that are not former hall of fame players LOL....

It's really hard to know what to make of this, since it is so close to meaningless. There have been great ex-players who were good GMs & other great ex-players who were terrible GMs. & there have been non-players who were good GMs & other non-players who were bad ones.

Are you a former hall of fame player, WD? Yet, you are absolutely certain that you know who the good prospects are in the draft & who the bad nes are. I bet you don't think that you have a horrible track record in draft predictions. Do you? So I guess you mean that the only guys who can be trusted to know in advance who will be good & who won't are former hall of fame players... and you! Is that it?

...They all have horrible track records...

Not really. For one thing, they don't have worse track records than, for example, the ex-players who have run drafts from NBA FOs.

That's not to say that these "draft experts" have good track records, btw -- they don't. & neither do those great ex-NBA players on your list! Nobody does. It's too complicated, there are too many unknowns, & the league changes too fast.

Go look at past drafts.. Derrick Williams, Hasheem Thabeet, Evan Turner, andrew Wiggins, Markelle Fultz, list goes on and on...

What does this list say about so-called "draft experts?" Nothing. These are some bad draft picks. What would make you think the GMs who made those picks were blindly following "draft experts?" You think that those Front Offices didn't do their own assessments? They just went & looked at Jonathan Givony, & did what he said they should do? Except, of course, he never told them what to do anyway! He was trying to figure out what they were going to do. His mock drafts -- all mock drafts! -- say what people think NBA teams will do -- not what they should do.

As far as that goes, all I know of your preferred draft picks is that you wanted us to take Harrison Barnes #3 in 2012. Barnes not Beal. That's if I understood correctly something you wrote here a couple of weeks ago.

Since Barnes is a meh player at best, your preference for him over Beal -- no... forget Beal! Just your conviction that he was worth the #3 pick in that draft -- means that...

...You have to trust your skills...

...doesn't seem to do the trick.

This, on the other hand...

No Front office is going to put out they really want....

...makes perfect sense.

[Dark Faze]

You know, I do like Okoro. It's definitely more of an eye test than anything, but I see Jaylen Brown with a bulldog personality.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/isaac-okoro-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jaylen-brown-1.html

They had really similar freshmen seasons, with Okoro being much more efficient offensively, but with Jaylen getting to the line and rebounding better.

His ability to be as good as Jaylen is very much dependent on if he can elevate his shooting like Jaylen did once he got into the league.

[payitforward]

The trade down with Boston continues to look like an outstanding opportunity -- even if we only got 14 & 26.

If I shared the "as close to 'can't miss' as possible" grade on Achiuwa that I think WD has, then that would likely change my mind.

I kinda like Achiuwa and wouldn't mind drafting him, but I'm not so in love with him that I'd draft him at #9. I'd happily trade down the #14 and #26 and gamble that he is still there at #14. I haven't seen many mocks that have him higher than 16th or so.

Landing Achiuwa at #14 and a good guard like Flynn at #26 would be nice. Or if Achiuwa is gone, then we pick a scoring wing like Nesmith at #14 and find a defensive big like Reed or Tillman at #26.

And then, whichever of these things we did -- pick Achiuwa #9, trade down & still get him, or not get him & pick the guys you list, or pick other guys because those guys are gone or because we like the other guys better than them -- or whatever else we did, the next thing we do is find out, usually pretty slowly, whether anything we did turns out to have been a good thing.

[doclinkin]

And then, whichever of these things we did -- pick Achiuwa #9, trade down & still get him, or not get him & pick the guys you list, or pick other guys because those guys are gone or because we like the other guys better than them -- or whatever else we did, the next thing we do is find out, usually pretty slowly, whether anything we did turns out to have been a good thing.

HAH! Yeah we have clearly used up everything there is to talk about...

[WizarDynasty]

Just keep you eye on the prize and be greatest pretend GM.

[pcbothwel]

You know, I do like Okoro. It's definitely more of an eye test than anything, but I see Jaylen Brown with a bulldog personality.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/isaac-okoro-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jaylen-brown-1.html

They had really similar freshmen seasons, with Okoro being much more efficient offensively, but with Jaylen getting to the line and rebounding better.

His ability to be as good as Jaylen is very much dependent on if he can elevate his shooting like Jaylen did once he got into the league.

I understand the eye test, but I dont think its fair to take an extreme outlier like Jaylen Brown and use his freshman year to compare the two.
He was REALLY bad (For his draft position/HS class) and then blew up in the league. Every year you can find two dozen 19 y/o Freshman that put up equal or better stats than Brown did... But maybe 1 or 2 will ever be near the caliber of player he is.

[payitforward]

...yes, i have made errors but i have corrected them. I was a fan of Bennet, the unfortunate 1st pick draft bust of cleveland but looking back I realized I brushed aside his standing reach (believing he had attributes that we see in Zion--and even zion is risky if he can't play s/f) and scouting reports stated that he could play s/f. the guy was only 6'6....

Everyone makes mistakes; I didn't mean to criticize you by pointing them out. But, mistakes don't stop happening because you correct what led to previous mistakes.

I would take Harrison Barnes any day of the week over Otto Porter....

Barnes has never had a season anywhere near as good as Otto had in 2016-17 & 2017-18. Perhaps someone could have known in advance that Otto's body would give out, but... I doubt it, to tell the truth.

As to your list of terrible players out of the 2012 R1, true enough. OTOH, 2011, which was predicted to be a terrible draft turned out to be great -- but not especially in the lottery. Yet 2 of the very best players in the game from the 2d half of R1.

But, both these drafts prove my point not yours! No one ever gets things right. Did you have Kawhi Leonard as going to be a generational player? Jimmy Butler? No, you didn't. Nor did any retired HOF player point to them in that way!!

...I believed that Andre Drummond followed by Harrison Barnes. I wasn't a fan of Beal because of his size. I still believe Beal is undersized for a shooting guard and an average to mediocre defender but he has character that i like....

I liked Drummond too -- not to take at #3, but that year I proposed one of my radical trade-down schemes: I think I had us getting 6 rookies! I don't seem to be able to stop myself from thinking along those lines.

...So wheeling and dealing for late 1st rounders when its possible that GM's have increased their skills and have already selected the limited pool of long term impact players is a high possibility. The technology and scouting and improved dramatically from 2012 to 2020 but can we say the pool of longterm impact players has increased. I believe it has not and i have stated that guys like Saddiq Bey and even Nesmith are not even close to the level of Harrison Barnes....

I see no evidence that GMs draft any more accurately than in the past, & of course great players will always be in short supply. I'm not a big fan of Saddiq Bey, but it wouldn't be a big reach for him to be as good as Barnes.

2 players in second round draymond green and kris middleton. The rest of the 30 picks in the second round turned out to be duds.

I don't know how you can say that, man. There's more to a good team than having a couple of "stars," & there's more to it than its starters. You need to be better than your opponents on the bench as well as the starting 5, otherwise you get nowhere. The 2012 R2 gave us Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Draymond, Middleton & Will Barton. All those guys have been very good NBA players. It also gave us Mike Scott & Kyle O'Quinn, both of whom have been solid journeyman ever since.

So you bring that logic to this year where you pick 9th. To hit on a player that will have a lasting impact is what you aim for in a draft especially at the Wizards position.

You aim for a good player with every pick. &, as you have demonstrated yourself, a #9 pick doesn't necessarily get you a better player than a #35 pick. You are certainly more likely to a good player with the #15 pick & another pick in the 20's than with the #9 pick.

And everyone, I mean everyone, was convinced that Otto Porter was going to take us to the promised land. I saw how poor his hip bend was back in college, and knew how it would pan out long term in the pros.

Fine. In that case you were right about Otto Porter (tho I don't recall you checking in here with that opinion -- I may be wrong about that, of course).

But you would have taken Barnes before Beal. & you were a fan of Bennett. & you haven't said whom you wanted instead of Porter. & you sure weren't calling for us to take Kawhi #6 in 2011 (I was). & I don't remember you shouting out for Butler @#18 that year (I did). Then again, I was wrong about other guys. It can't be avoided.

[WizarDynasty]

Everyone makes mistakes; I didn't mean to criticize you by pointing them out. But, mistakes don't stop happening because you correct what led to previous mistakes

How could you criticize me when i was the one that pointed out Bennett, not you.

Secondly the whole point of this discussion is that if you follow certain metrics, you dramatically reduce your risk for drafting busts. One of the most important is standing reach. If the prospect is not above average in standing reach for his position, and again-- p/f if they don't have 9'2 standing reach, huge red flag.
Prospects that can't maintain deep hip bends offensively and defensively for long periods of time. These are huge red flags that can't be improved with coaching.

If you apply my formula, you will see that alot of stars could in the past drafts would have been identified and busts would have been avoided. Almost all bust have either poor standing reach and poor hip bend..or both. Apply this wisdom to this draft if you want to improve your skills as a pretend gM. That's the point of the post.

[payitforward]

Everyone makes mistakes; I didn't mean to criticize you by pointing them out. But, mistakes don't stop happening because you correct what led to previous mistakes

How could you criticize me when i was the one that pointed out Bennett....

I meant that I wasn't criticizing you for supporting Bennett in 2013, as you said you did.

But, to be sure, you certainly did say that after Bennett turned out to be a terrible player, you changed your mind & no longer thought that he had been a good #1 pick. Very good. Very well done of you!

...Secondly the whole point of this discussion is that if you follow certain metrics, you dramatically reduce your risk for drafting busts....

Actually, no, that's not the whole point of this discussion -- & I say that without questioning that these metrics are significant. Of course they are.

The point of the discussion is quite different. Thus, I will remind you that Hasheem Thabeet had (still has?) an 9' 5" standing reach. &, just to stay in that one draft (2009), B.J. Mullens' was 9' 3", Earl Clark's was 9' 2", & Austin Daye's was 9' 2". Who do you like best in that group?

Should I do another draft? How about 2010? You like Solomen Alabi? Cole Aldrich? Eric Boateng? Jordan Eglseder? Jeff Foote? Keith Gallon? Jason Love? Hamady N'Diaye? Daniel Orton, Artsiom Parakhouski? Dexter Pitman? Ryan Richards? All with excellent standing reach -- do those guys get on a short list to pick high?

OTOH, Gordon Hayward has a standing reach of 8' 7." Ganai Lawal had a better standing reach than Paul George that year. So did Deon Thompson, Stanley Robinson, Jarvis Varnado.

Doesn't mean we should ignore standing reach. Nor should we draft 6' 5" guys to play Center!

[WizarDynasty]

The point of the discussion is quite different. Thus, I will remind you that Hasheem Thabeet had (still has?) an 9' 5" standing reach. &, just to stay in that one draft (2009), B.J. Mullens' was 9' 3", Earl Clark's was 9' 2", & Austin Daye's was 9' 2". Who do you like best in that group?

Wiser D "Defense" is Nasty

Yes they met the requirement for standing reach, but all three could not maintain deep hip bend while moving for long durations of time both offensively and defensively. It's not one or the other, it's both. That is the critical component that would have eliminated all of them.

Paul George had a standing reach of 8'11. I remember, it was identical to Trevor Ariza. 8'11 for a small forward is outstanding!
Again Mullens, Clark, and Daye... if you go back and look at their footage, they all had poor hip bends--it needs to be both offensively and defensively. Paul George had excellent hip bend on both sides of the court. https://youtu.be/dmbBTHeciQI?t=87

[payitforward]

Absolutely -- outstanding static & dynamic athleticism is a big plus in a prospect. How could that not be so?

The problem with this is of 2 kinds --

1. First off the "positive" problem: right now, for example you write below that "Achiuwa=Draymond." No measurements suffice to establish that. Of course, it may still turn out that way. In fact, he may be better than Draymond. Or worse. In fact, he may be nothing special at all, or even be a bust. Every possible outcome is on the table.

2. Second comes the "negative" problem: i.e. Brandon Clarke is a tremendous player, by far the best rookie this season & already one of the best PFs in the league -- even though you seem not to want him to be, because he doesn't meet your set of static athletic requirements.

The overall point is that you can't substitute a physical metric for results. Results are what count -- period. & the best predictor of results tomorrow are results yesterday. In the same sense, the best predictor of results in the NBA are results in high level NCAA play.

I didn't say the "perfect predictor" or the "only predictor" -- I said the best one. & that's what the results show -- year after year, player after player.

[WizarDynasty]

2. Second comes the "negative" problem: i.e. Brandon Clarke is a tremendous player, by far the best rookie this season & already one of the best PFs in the league -- even though you seem not to want him to be, because he doesn't meet your set of static athletic requirements.

He is a great weakside shot blocker. That's it. He doesn't get to the free throw line, he doesn't shoot off the dribble, he is not a great three point shooter, he doesn't have post moves? How can a below average offensive player, who basically catches lobs and player who cleans up shots after someone else does all the hard work defensively. I get if Brandon Clarke consistently blocked the shot of the man he was guarding.
Ok enough with Brandon Clarke and being great. he is a decent bench guy, but he is not a difference maker, and he has the dimensions of a small forward, not even a powerforward yet he plays like a center. I don't hate him, i just don't think he is special.

[payitforward]

His numbers are. Period. But, you are right -- enough w/ Clarke!

[prime1time]

As scintillating as this discussion is can we turn it back to the 2020 draft? I’m going to be honest, if trading up requires Troy Brown Jr I’m not doing it.

Tbh, I like a lot of players in this draft. Given our position Okongwu is my number 1 but I’d be fine with Okoro, Vassell or Haliburton. All in all I feel pretty good about where we are. If we can win enough for Bradley to commit continue to stockpile on young players and make smart moves I think we can get to the point where we could attract high level talent in the off-season. Especially if Wall’s 3-point shot has improved.

All of this to say, as much as I believe that elite slayers win championships, not drafting busts is so important. Rui and Troy are both solid players. If we can get another solid player this draft we are well on our way.

[pcbothwel]

As scintillating as this discussion is can we turn it back to the 2020 draft? I’m going to be honest, if trading up requires Troy Brown Jr I’m not doing it.

Tbh, I like a lot of players in this draft. Given our position Okongwu is my number 1 but I’d be fine with Okoro, Vassell or Haliburton. All in all I feel pretty good about where we are. If we can win enough for Bradley to commit continue to stockpile on young players and make smart moves I think we can get to the point where we could attract high level talent in the off-season. Especially if Wall’s 3-point shot has improved.

All of this to say, as much as I believe that elite slayers win championships, not drafting busts is so important. Rui and Troy are both solid players. If we can get another solid player this draft we are well on our way.

This... TBJ has all the tools, work ethic, and BBIQ/Awareness you need to be VERY successful in this league. He simply needed his body to mature a bit, tighten up his shot, and work on his overall defensive technique.

Ill take those all day over work ethic and awareness short comings, which for most part can only be improved so much.

I think he ends up the best of the 3 between him, Rui, and Bryant.

[nate33]

if trading up requires Troy Brown Jr I’m not doing it.

Agreed. The difference between someone in the 4-6 range and the best guy at #9 isn't worth Troy Brown. I'll just take the best guy that falls to us. Or maybe even trade down with Boston.

[pcbothwel]

if trading up requires Troy Brown Jr I’m not doing it.

Agreed. The difference between someone in the 4-6 range and the best guy at #9 isn't worth Troy Brown. I'll just take the best guy that falls to us. Or maybe even trade down with Boston.

I'll go one step further, Im not sure the guys at 4-6 (Haliburton, Vassell, Toppin, Hayes) will be better than Troy Brown alone.

[payitforward]

Same here. & I'm with pcb that none of those guys is a sure thing to be better than TBJ.

As to trading down -- it almost has to be the case that Boston (with 4 picks in this draft) would look to trade at least 2 of them.

14, 26 & 47 would be a haul
14, 30 & 47 would be more than enough to do the deal
14 & 26 would also be enough.
14, 30 & Boston's R2 pick next year would be the least I'd expect to get.

The only player I'd trade whom I can imagine they might see as marginally interesting is Jerome Robinson -- a product of Boston College.

[WizarDynasty]

Same here. & I'm with pcb that none of those guys is a sure thing to be better than TBJ.

As to trading down -- it almost has to be the case that Boston (with 4 picks in this draft) would look to trade at least 2 of them.
14, 26 & 47 would be a haul
14, 30 & 47 would be more than enough to do the deal
14 & 26 would also be enough.
14, 30 & Boston's R2 pick next year would be the least I'd expect to get.

The only player I'd trade whom I can imagine they might see as marginally interesting is Jerome Robinson -- a product of Boston College.

Why trade with boston when they have had a history of grabbing the best players? Why would you not want a player that Boston is targeting?
I understand trading with a team who has history of making bad decisions? But if Boston wants to trade with you--they have a great track record of selecting the best players, clearly the player they pick is probably someone you would have wanted on your team more than the pick that they are selling you.

If Boston is willing to trade their picks, that should be a sign that what they are looking for is likely to be gone. History of draft tells us that most first rounders are out of the league in five years. How many times has a team with multiple first rounders picked two stars in a draft? Just to get an above average starter is very rare, and if you are betting that a team is going to let a starter slide all the way down to pick 14 is foolish. Only the bottom dwellers in the nba would bet that they can pick 2 starting caliber players after pick 11. Trading at pick 9 so that you can get bench players makes absolutely zero sense. This is a very weak draft, not alot of athletic players at all. Now if you were trading down to get some unprotected first rounders in the future with a bad team, then trading down makes sense. This entire draft outside of maybe the the top 3 or 4 players are bench players. Outside the top 5 you have some low caliber starters on non playoff teams and 6th man players at best. At that is it. Don't get fooled into trying to make a piece of coal into a diamond. No matter how hard you imagined Anthony Bennet to be Zion Williamson..before Zion Williamson, it's not going to happen. IN this draft, the same thing happens where you tried to make a player far better than what their physical dimensions state that they should be. I see alot of players with poor standing reach for their position and yet mocks are pushing them like they are starters on playoffs teams in three years. So trading down to get deep bench players is a poor strategy.