nate33 wrote:prime1time wrote:We are already overloaded at guard and wing. If they think someone is special then fine. But just drafting another guard/wing to add to the group we already have and then not really have them play would be bizarre.
Here's where I disagree.
I only see one guy whom I'm reasonably confident will pan out to be an above-average starter: Bilal. Bub, Sarr George and AJ might pan out, but they might peak as 5th-8th man role players. It's too soon to tell.
But the real issue is that nobody on our roster is looking like they have more than a 10% chance of becoming a franchise-player. So if there's anybody in this draft at any position that has franchise-player potential, take him with absolutely no consideration given to anyone we already have on the roster. I'd only take Queen if I truly felt he was the best player on the board. I don't care at all that he is a center and not a wing.
I almost entirely agree with this. It's one of the reasons I'm not at all sold that we'll suddenly be playing for the playoffs in '26-'27, 14 months from now. Currently we have zero game changing, obvious mega stud franchise players. There is no Luca, no Anthony Davis in 2012, no Durant in '07, not even Tatum's, or Ja's, or Ant's, none of that or close to it.
What we have are 2 high ceiling players that probably won't reach the ceilings:
Sarr and Bilal
One mega wild card guy:
AJ Johnson
And a high floor moderate ceiling guy:
Bub
and role players.
I would agree w/you on the core argument, Bilal seems 60% All D, always erratic O guy, Sarr seems likely to be at least a weapon of some sort, but is he suddenly gonna become some serious weapon in the paint offensively and defensively? I doubt it. I think there's basically a 5-15% Bilal becomes a star (if he gets his offense right and his 3 ball right, it happens, but there's little evidence he can do it beyond small sample sizes), and with Sarr I'd put it at 10-20% because he's already got tools he wont lose, and is a fantastic option in the transition game, he has pieces you can't teach, but his liabilities are enormous, so he's the ultimate high volatility guy except thankfully he doesn't have the rock bottom floor of say, Vesely. Sarr is already legit useful, and if he figures out the rest, which I think is highly unlikely (but I do think he'll improve on a lot of it, since he's a hard worker, and some of it involves things that require just time, experience and repetition).
With that knowledge in tow, that there's basically a 10-15% chance we have a hidden franchise guy in house (basically similar odds to winning the lottery, so maybe its lower than that, like 5-10%), we simply cannot prioritize fit, period. Our objective with the '23-'26 drafts minimum is to acquire the most talented prospects in terms of long term upside, regardless of position, period. We can trade for fit down the line, right now we simply need to keep rolling the dice on ceiling, trying to find 1-3 stars between '23 and '26. Nothing else matters which is why I find the interest in guys that are already ceiling reached, overage prospects so freaking odd. They may draft those guys, but it doesn't make any sense for a team that has basically won what 30ish of the past 160 games, to target high floor guys with zero chance of ever being stars unless they are flippable components to trade for stars, that's really the only out where such a draft decision would make sense.
That's why I'm hunting upside with Maluach, Fears, Sorber, Essengue, Beringer etc. I don't want ready made, moderately good players that are going to be peak at average starters, to JAG's who are NBA caliber JAG's. We have nothing that genuinely matters, that other teams have to worry about, period, right now.
As such we need to be trying to draft guys that genuinely are a problem and have a super high ceiling. Maybe a guy like Queen fits that, but I'm skeptical because of the defensive liabilities. I've seen too many offensive rich bigs who dgaf on defense fail horribly to really buy that kind of prospect. Admittedly, I still remember defense only (hopefully he picks up on the offensive side) bigs the past five years two who ended up largely blah guys too, but I'd rather swing big on a guy who already has the defensive part down, because I've found it rare that guys w/little defensive acumen and little defensive athleticism, suddenly develop it as pro's. It's more a case that defensively rich players add offensive flair over time, sometimes (though also rarely to an impressive degree) and become more two dimensional than the reverse in my view.
Anyway, regardless, I totally agree with Nate that this team should be 1000% about accruing upside talent, and fit should be irrelevant as we try to grow from a team that is maxing out at 15-17 wins, to a team that can someday add 35 wins to that total and actually contend. The only way we get there is with ceiling level talents, not fits. Drafting for fit will max out at a 30-38 win roster IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT. I'm totally out on that as a strategy (and it also hurts our tank for '26 and '27 by inflating win totals while not inflating chances of actually being a relevant team down the line). We can worry about fit in 2027 (if we land a difference making star in '25 and/or '26).
Ah-man, that is cold, The Earl was 5"5
