Deni Avdija

[nate33]

I just want to remind people that in the last game that triggered all of these depression comments he had 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, only 1 turnover and the highest +/- on the team (except Gill that only played 11 minutes), and seeing that kind of stats isn't something unusual for him, with all of his shortcomings on offense he's still a positive influence on the court.

Deni is going to have a long NBA career, the only question is if he'll do it as an Anthony Gill type of player or as a decent starter and even a star, after 3 years it looks like that for him to fulfill his full potential at the Wizards he either needs to overcome his mental confidence issues or the team needs to plays a much more organized, share the ball type of play instead of the iso brick chucking they are currently doing, unfortunately there aren't signs either of these things are going to happen any time soon.

I wouldn't bet on Deni having along NBA career. Why? Because there will be savy, defensive-minded players in every draft who can "Deni", AND be more than able to carry their share on offensive which Deni cannot do.

If Deni doesn't significantly improve, he is unlikely to have a long career as anything more than an 8th man. And if that's the case, he might decide he is better off playing in Europe. Of course, he could still improve and pan out to be a quality player. We shall see.

And I reject the notion that Deni is failing because he is not being put in a position to succeed. It's true that Deni is at his best with the ball in his hands, but the problem is, he is not good enough with the ball in his hands for the team to succeed. No team, except perhaps a tanking team, is going to willingly hamstring their chances of winning games just to develop a non-star player. It is therefore up to Deni to either get much, much better with the ball in his hands, or learn to play off ball better.

Also, as I've pointed out multiple times, there are virtually no examples in the last 20 years of a Wizards' draft pick failing in DC and then going on to be significantly more productive elsewhere.

[dobrojim]

Dat/Nate are on point. Personally I've lost patience. Even his supposed strength (D) doesn't seem
that great to me. If there are objective stats to refute that I'll be happy and/or relieved to see them.

[Eyalley-oop]

I reject the notion that Deni is failing because he is not being put in a position to succeed. It's true that Deni is at his best with the ball in his hands, but the problem is, he is not good enough with the ball in his hands for the team to succeed. No team, except perhaps a tanking team, is going to willingly hamstring their chances of winning games just to develop a non-star player.

And the Wizards are not a tanking team?

I keep hearing that same tune over and over again about the horrendous prophet of the team loosing if god forbid they will play on Deni, I've got a newsflash for everybody, the team IS LOOSING right now and has no real chance of getting into the playoffs, meanwhile regarding Deni, there's a direct correlation between Deni's good offensive games and the team winning, as well as direct correlation between Deni having good offensive games while at least one of the "big 3" is not playing, so why the conclusion that playing more on Deni will have negative results on the team's success?

BUT, I haven't claimed Deni is failing because he's not being put in a position to succeed or that the team needs to play on him, so why do I find myself keep defending these claim here? I claimed that in order for him to succeed 1 or 2 things needs to happen:

1. Deni needs to overcome his mental confidence issues.
2. The team needs to play organized team ball.

I've said nothing about putting him in any position, what I'm saying is that in the current situation Deni simply does not fit to the playing style of the team, so either the team will change its playing style or Deni will change his playing style, but if either will happen there's no point of him extending his contract here and his best bet will be to take his chances somewhere else.

Also, as I've pointed out multiple times, there are virtually no examples in the last 20 years of a Wizards' draft pick failing in DC and then going on to be significantly more productive elsewhere.

There's also no example of a draft pick under 3rd pick getting an extension of contract, right? but even with the last bad games it still seems like a reasonable situation with Deni, so there's a first time for everything.

[doclinkin]

My impression was that Deni was (reasonably) frustrated with Refs for phantom fouls, and complained about it once too often/too visibly. I got the sense he got chewed out for it postgame, and has shut down and underperformed since then. Refs know a player's reputation for this thing. Coaches don't want players to rely on excuses. BUT Deni does seem to be targeted, or leastways I've seen that the after-game reports on ref's mistakes have disproportionately featured Deni on calls that should have gone the other way.

The cure is simply for Deni to do what he did last offseason: work on his offensive game. Refs don't whistle scorers as willingly. Deni still has a positive effect on the box score. And still is one of the youngest players on the team, has upside and room to grow with some pretty obvious areas of his game to work on.

I'd happily sign him for a suppressed dollar figure. That is the exact sort of player we will need: helps the team, costs less.

[doclinkin]

in order for him to succeed 1 or 2 things needs to happen:

1. Deni needs to overcome his mental confidence issues.
2. The team needs to play organized team ball.

No worries. I doubt Kuzma re-signs here. Which opens up an opportunity at Deni's best spot on the floor and removes our most inefficient high volume gunner.

Also, for Deni fans who are not strictly Wizards fans, I get the sense there are teams that would happily snatch Deni if he were a piece available in a trade, and Tommy has gone far too long without a big crazy move, which has been his signature in his tenure so far.

[Eyalley-oop]

I wouldn't bet on Deni having along NBA career. Why? Because there will be savy, defensive-minded players in every draft who can "Deni", AND be more than able to carry their share on offensive which Deni cannot do.

The previous Israeli NBA player, Omri Casspi, was also a 6'9" player that resembles Deni but much less talented and had a a much lower potential ceiling, his total career stats are slightly lower than what Deni is averaging this season, Casspi had a 10 year NBA career including time in a Golden State championship team, and that in-spite of having bad luck with a number of injuries, if Deni will stay healthy and will make that choice, there's no reason why he won't stay in the league for a long time, the only question is in what role and for how much money.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Dat/Nate are on point. Personally I've lost patience. Even his supposed strength (D) doesn't seem
that great to me. If there are objective stats to refute that I'll be happy and/or relieved to see them.

I'm not off the bandwagon, but he has not doubt had a horrible March so his stock is low as of today.

With that said, to answer your question regarding some objective numbers, he was trending in the right direction before his slide over the last month where he just looks disjointed on the court and lacking confidence. His DBPM is at 0.5 this season after being 0.4 for each of his first seasons; this was as high as 0.7/0.8 at one point but had regressed severely over the past month. His on-off this season is +1.7 after +5.2 last season, and was as high as I believe +2.7 or +2.8 before sliding backwards by his outings against the Hawk at home. His OnCourt +/- this season is neutral at 0.0 after posting -0.7 last year and -2.5 his rookie season; this is another stat that has taken a dive in the past month for him as well.

His VORP is now negative at -0.2 after being slightly positive last year at 0.1 and being positive for most of this year. He was shooting a career best from 2pt% before this month, that is now slightly below his career average. The long-and-short of it is, a lot of silver linings have been battered by this month long stretch of bad play from him. Butt averages are what they are, so you can't discount them.

I agree with Nate in that his defense from the eye test has slipped a bit, but I don't think it's because of ability, I think it is somewhat multifaceted. I definitely agree that he seems to try to avoid fouls to the point where it impacts his effectiveness on that end, to me that has to be at least in large part to due to coaching. I also have noticed that he was for most of the season given choice defensive assignments to only kind of been relegated once Delon started having these crazy steals games and was given that role as defensive stopper with the starters. In my opinion Wright gets highly overrated for his defensive ability because he is a ball hawk, when he makes questionable defensive decisions pretty commonly despite being a long-time veteran. I think this has played a part in has lack of confidence there. You have also seen him get frustrated by other players constantly getting blown by and missing their coverages on the team. Not saying this is an excuse to maybe mail in the effort a bit, especially a player who needs to play stellar defense to merit court time, but this team's disciple, leadership, and accountability has to be a complete mind **** for young players trying to establish themselves. You need no more evidence that the team employs the zone down the stretch in tough games to see how poorly things have taken a turn for.

I think his issues are both personal and a product of the team and his leadership. From a personal standpoint, that 3 ball work this offseason is going to be make or break for him. He has the yips right now with that shot, he hesitates with it, and you can tell from the release he is thinking way too much about it. The three ball has been his Achilles heal all season from both and offensive perspective and from a confidence perspective. Honestly if he can just get that to 35% it changes his whole trajectory. It would make it hard not to play him because he's a threat there, and it will open up his playmaking abilities and drives to the rim. He also has shown more versatility with his handle, but turnovers have increased and he needs to continue to tighten up his handle. I think he has shown flashes of being a really good passer and finisher, but he needs consistency. At the very least he's a willing passer which is hard to come by on this team.

From a team standpoint, I'm in the camp that I think this team's culture is toxic starting with the Three, even aside from Ted and his minions. I think all the goodwill people see in the media with Kuzma, Porzingis, and Beal towards him is completely overblown by some here. Everything I've seen from him and by his body language on the court, he seems afraid to do anything other than be differential to them even to the point of hurting his own stock. I know I'll get pushback that they are the only guys that can score on this team, but I think that logic is painfully flawed given the results of this team. I think WUJ is a 'yes' man that perpetuates this team's toxic hierarchy despite flailing results, and some players aren't put in great positions to succeed and develop give the numb-skull mentality of this team to fight and claw towards a 10th seed that even in a best case scenario we win two road games, lose our draft pick, and get swept by the one seed.

Regardless, I think there are many silver-linings that I can look to and say I am not ready to give up on him by any stretch. He's got some really good building blocks. He has shown he can be really good on defense (I'm not going to let a crappy month change my mind on that), he's got great size (even if he doesn't know how to use it yet), he's versatile, he's a good rebounder, his free throw shooting is above average despite other shooting woes, he plays with great effort, he moves the ball, can play some point forward, and he's only 22. With his play this past month, he's definitely put some added pressure on himself, but honestly I think a combination of his three to a respectable percentage, growing up a bit, and good hopefully this team getting some combination of Beal, Kuzma, and Porzingis out the door can do a lot. He'll have to put in the work this offseason though, because next season will basically tell us what he's going to be. It would be great if he can close out the rest of the season on a good note, but this team is such a flaming dumpster fire in its continued and misguided pursuit of the 10th seed I doubt he'll have the opportunity.

Can he get there? All I can say is shoot a 1,000+ threes a day young man. It's a coin toss IMO at this point.

[Dat2U]

for him to fulfill his full potential at the Wizards he either needs to overcome his mental confidence issues or the team needs to plays a much more organized, share the ball type of play instead of the iso brick chucking they are currently doing, unfortunately there aren't signs either of these things are going to happen any time soon.

Oh lord here are the excuses. This is a bunch of bull. Deni has more opportunity here than he would anywhere else! He is 4th on the Wizards in usage with Nunn rotting on the bench. 4th! The Wizards desperately needed anyone who can get a shot up. Kuz usage rate is so high because he's willing to take shots no one else will. All the opportunities in the world are there for Deni but he can't take advantage of it because of his POOR NBA skill level... He still can't go left. Can't finish left. Can't make open shots. Can't really create shots (16% usage).

[Runner300]

Deni has no place on court together with KP Gafford and particilarly Kuzma.
With this already too big and too slow trio, he's forced away from the paint and from the ball.
He needs the ball in his hands at least to some extent.
With his dodgy 3pt shooting ability he can still be highly useful 2 way Power Forward on a team that shares the ball or at least has any kind of offensive structure.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

for him to fulfill his full potential at the Wizards he either needs to overcome his mental confidence issues or the team needs to plays a much more organized, share the ball type of play instead of the iso brick chucking they are currently doing, unfortunately there aren't signs either of these things are going to happen any time soon.

Oh lord here are the excuses. This is a bunch of bull. Deni has more opportunity here than he would anywhere else! He is 4th on the Wizards in usage with Nunn rotting on the bench. 4th! The Wizards desperately needed anyone who can get a shot up. Kuz usage rate is so high because he's willing to take shots no one else will. All the opportunities in the world are there for Deni but he can't take advantage of it because of his POOR NBA skill level... He still can't go left. Can't finish left. Can't make open shots. Can't really create shots (16% usage).

Whatever your opinion of Deni is, fine. But do really find it that hard to believe that this team structure is such a train wreck to the point it could possibly hinder the development of younger players? This goes for any of the young guys not just Deni, all who at one point or the other have had stretches were they have struggled to find defined roles or consistency.

[dobrojim]

It's up to him to get better at shooting/finishing. He has access to the finest coaching
in the world and I'm not necessarily referring to the Wizards. And it's up to him to work
on developing a new and different relationship with the refs. They have no incentive to
change their opinion simply on their own. They get graded by the league on calls/non-calls.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

It's up to him to get better at shooting/finishing. He has access to the finest coaching
in the world and I'm not necessarily referring to the Wizards. And it's up to him to work
on developing a new and different relationship with the refs. They have no incentive to
change their opinion simply on their own. They get graded by the league on calls/non-calls.

Agreed, definitely about the ref part. A first move: don't listen to or follow anything that our vets do, especially Beal.

[Eyalley-oop]

for him to fulfill his full potential at the Wizards he either needs to overcome his mental confidence issues or the team needs to plays a much more organized, share the ball type of play instead of the iso brick chucking they are currently doing, unfortunately there aren't signs either of these things are going to happen any time soon.

Oh lord here are the excuses. This is a bunch of bull. Deni has more opportunity here than he would anywhere else! He is 4th on the Wizards in usage with Nunn rotting on the bench. 4th! The Wizards desperately needed anyone who can get a shot up. Kuz usage rate is so high because he's willing to take shots no one else will. All the opportunities in the world are there for Deni but he can't take advantage of it because of his POOR NBA skill level... He still can't go left. Can't finish left. Can't make open shots. Can't really create shots (16% usage).

In what world or universe Deni is 4th in usage??



And maybe try to be more respectful in the way you discuss things if you want to have a conversation.

[Jimmy Recard]

Deni’s jumper looks broken. I don’t know what Drew Hanlen is teaching him but his mechanics look worse than they did in his rookie year.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Deni’s jumper looks broken. I don’t know what Drew Hanlen is teaching him but his mechanics look worse than they did in his rookie year.

We should have known given it was Beal's trainer...

[Dat2U]

for him to fulfill his full potential at the Wizards he either needs to overcome his mental confidence issues or the team needs to plays a much more organized, share the ball type of play instead of the iso brick chucking they are currently doing, unfortunately there aren't signs either of these things are going to happen any time soon.

Oh lord here are the excuses. This is a bunch of bull. Deni has more opportunity here than he would anywhere else! He is 4th on the Wizards in usage with Nunn rotting on the bench. 4th! The Wizards desperately needed anyone who can get a shot up. Kuz usage rate is so high because he's willing to take shots no one else will. All the opportunities in the world are there for Deni but he can't take advantage of it because of his POOR NBA skill level... He still can't go left. Can't finish left. Can't make open shots. Can't really create shots (16% usage).

In what world or universe Deni is 4th in usage??



And maybe try to be more respectful in the way you discuss things if you want to have a conversation.

I did not disrespect you in anyway. I'd advise you please don't play that card, that won't win you any points or make me any nicer.

Yes, Deni is 4th in usage if you look at current rotation players. Rui is gone. Barton is gone. Huff and Nunn are not rotation guys.

[Dat2U]

for him to fulfill his full potential at the Wizards he either needs to overcome his mental confidence issues or the team needs to plays a much more organized, share the ball type of play instead of the iso brick chucking they are currently doing, unfortunately there aren't signs either of these things are going to happen any time soon.

Oh lord here are the excuses. This is a bunch of bull. Deni has more opportunity here than he would anywhere else! He is 4th on the Wizards in usage with Nunn rotting on the bench. 4th! The Wizards desperately needed anyone who can get a shot up. Kuz usage rate is so high because he's willing to take shots no one else will. All the opportunities in the world are there for Deni but he can't take advantage of it because of his POOR NBA skill level... He still can't go left. Can't finish left. Can't make open shots. Can't really create shots (16% usage).

Whatever your opinion of Deni is, fine. But do really find it that hard to believe that this team structure is such a train wreck to the point it could possibly hinder the development of younger players? This goes for any of the young guys not just Deni, all who at one point or the other have had stretches were they have struggled to find defined roles or consistency.

Team structure? What is that? Is there a team structure ranking i can go off? Are the Wiz bottom five in team structure percentage which is holding everyone back? Or is this some random phrase we've come up with in a bland attempt to excuse players we really should be dissappointed in?

Maybe another team would have pressed Deni to work religiously on his weak hand, jumper & finishing ability to unlock whatever upside he has. But we don't know that. All we have is evidence that his jumper is still broken, he still can't finish and he still can't go left. That's a skill issue. Not a fit issue. Not a put him in the wrong role issue. Its his limitations in his game. And to top it off, he's not defending anywhere like he did last season.

I had high hopes for Deni this season. He has not been that guy though and its really all on him. No one else. I don't know how many non-tanking teams would continue to force minutes for a non-shooter who isn't effective with or without ball and isn't defending at a high level. Thats why i take umbrage at the notion that he's not had a great opportunity to carve out a massive role. He has, his skill level just isnt up to snuff.

[Eyalley-oop]

I did not disrespect you in anyway

So this is you showing me your appreciation for my words:

This is a bunch of bull.

that won't win you any points or make me any nicer.

If you're not a nice person or think being nice is a chore that needs some special incentive that's mainly your problem.

Deni is 4th in usage if you look at current rotation players. Rui is gone. Barton is gone. Huff and Nunn are not rotation guys.

Rui and Barton are gone, but are you judging Deni's performance since they are gone or his entire season when they were still in the team? if it's his entire season then reference the entire season stats and usage and not only what suits your claim, or are you judging only Deni's performance since they were gone? because he had a few great games during that period, or just the current month? what exactly are you judging?

The stats says that when looking at the entire season no, he wasn't 4th in the team in usage, if you want to look just at the current month that's your right, but teams or GM's usually don't make long term contracts decisions based on 3-4 weeks performance.

And if Nunn is not a rotation guy and with his 13 mpg still has an higher usage than Deni that only supports the claim Deni isn't being used even more...

[Dat2U]

I did not disrespect you in anyway

So this is you showing me your appreciation for my words:

This is a bunch of bull.

that won't win you any points or make me any nicer.

If you're not a nice person or think being nice is a chore that needs some special incentive that's mainly your problem.

Deni is 4th in usage if you look at current rotation players. Rui is gone. Barton is gone. Huff and Nunn are not rotation guys.

Rui and Barton are gone, but are you judging Deni's performance since they are gone or his entire season when they were still in the team? if it's his entire season then reference the entire season stats and usage and not only what suits your claim, or are you judging only Deni's performance since they were gone? because he had a few great games during that period, or just the current month? what exactly are you judging?

The stats says that when looking at the entire season no, he wasn't 4th in the team in usage, if you want to look just at the current month that's your right, but teams or GM's usually don't make long term contracts decisions based on 3-4 weeks performance.

And if Nunn is not a rotation guy and with his 13 mpg still has an higher usage than Deni that only supports the claim Deni isn't being used even more...

I discuss basketball my guy. I don't do this back forth on the he said, I said and now your feelings are hurt nonsense. Please go elsewhere with that because your right, I'm not a nice guy at all. So if you feel I've disrespected you, cool. I don't care. Block me. Go away. Do whatever you want but you don't have to continue to engage me.

Also any sensible point you make in the future regarding this discussion will be your first. Nunn has played more than 10 mins a grand total of twice since the all-star break with 15 being his high. Huff has played less than 9 minutes in DC. Rui left DC two months ago. Barton was out of the rotation in late December, 3 months ago. None of these guys are holding Deni back.

[Kanyewest]

Deni ranks 293 out 512 players in usage. He may be above average for a Wizards player but seems to have the ball less than an average NBA player.