Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[WizStorm]

I asked earlier, but how would a lockout affect the draft and draft positioning?

I'm thinking that any lockout would happen after the upcoming season and once the current CBA expires. If so, I believe that would mean next year's NBA draft would still be held and conducted based on the upcoming season's standings. I would imagine that if a lockout was all but certain at that point, player movement would be virtually non-existent.

If that happens, the real question is what happens if the lockout knocks out an entire NBA season. You can't just draft in the same order and I don't think you can make a straight lottery for all NBA teams. Maybe the league would follow the NHL example after they lost a whole season (which incidentally was right after the Caps had the #1 pick and got Ovechkin):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004%E2%80 ... HL_lockout

The loss of the 2004–05 season meant that there were no results on which to base the order of the 2005 entry draft. The league settled on a lottery system in which all teams had a weighted chance at the first pick, expected to be Sidney Crosby. The lottery was tilted so teams with fewer playoff appearances over the last three seasons and fewer number one overall picks over the last four seasons had a better chance of landing higher picks. The complete order was determined by the lottery, and the 2005 draft was conducted in a "snake" style, meaning in even rounds, the draft order was reversed. This system was an attempt to compromise between those who felt all teams should have had an equal chance at the first pick and those who felt only the weaker teams should have been in the running.

To ease the transition to the salary cap, teams were allowed one week to buy out players at two-thirds the cost of their remaining contract, which would not count against the salary cap. Bought out players could not re-sign with the same team.

[willbcocks]

Interesting. That could produce some strange results.

They would have to do something, as you couldnt have the same team getting a 1-4 pick both years. But either way, if there's a full year lockout the year after next, tanking next year might prove extra advantageous.

[AceDegenerate]

It's not like the same teams aren't in the NBA Lottery every year anyway. I'm sure if you went back through the past 10 years, you could make a pretty fair NBA Lottery without even playing a season to determine the order.

Wizards will be there somewhere between 5-9. Clippers always there between 5-12. Knicks are there if they even own a pick.

Usually the same crowd every year one way or another.

[verbal8]

I asked earlier, but how would a lockout affect the draft and draft positioning?

I'm thinking that any lockout would happen after the upcoming season and once the current CBA expires. If so, I believe that would mean next year's NBA draft would still be held and conducted based on the upcoming season's standings. I would imagine that if a lockout was all but certain at that point, player movement would be virtually non-existent.

[/quote]
Would there be any underclassmen(short of those kicked out school) in a draft with a lock-out about to occur? Also there would be no reason for ready-to-play foreign players to enter the draft. Foreign prospects who are 2 or 3 years away from coming over, would have a strong incentive to enter the draft.

[willbcocks]

I asked earlier, but how would a lockout affect the draft and draft positioning?

I'm thinking that any lockout would happen after the upcoming season and once the current CBA expires. If so, I believe that would mean next year's NBA draft would still be held and conducted based on the upcoming season's standings. I would imagine that if a lockout was all but certain at that point, player movement would be virtually non-existent.

Would there be any underclassmen(short of those kicked out school) in a draft with a lock-out about to occur? Also there would be no reason for ready-to-play foreign players to enter the draft. Foreign prospects who are 2 or 3 years away from coming over, would have a strong incentive to enter the draft.[/quote]

Players could do a Jennings type situation and get their place in the front of the salary line, then go play pro ball overseas for a year. Of course, that path ain't made for everyone.

[Mizerooskie]

Players I'll be watching:

Incoming freshmen:

Harrison Barnes (UNC)
Will Barton (Memphis)
Reggie Bullock (UNC)
Fabricio de Melo (Syracuse)
Stacey Poole (Kentucky)

Returning college players:

Elias Harris (Gonzaga)
Jeff Taylor (Vandy)
Kenneth Faried (Morehead State)
Malcolm Lee (UCLA)
Scotty Hopson (Tennessee)

International:

Jan Vesely
Jonas Valanciunas
Donatas Motiejunas
Pablo Aguilar
Alexy Shved

[go'stags]

One guy I'll try and watch this year is Iman Shumpert, PG/SG from Georgia Tech.

Yes, GT is the school you heard about where the guards could not get the ball to Derrick Favors, and yes he plays guard for them.

While he did have some struggles in being a distributor, I feel he has potential in that area. The main culprits IMO from watching some games were the other guard, whose name escapes me, and the coach, Paul Hewitt. It seemed he demanded nothing from his team, which had a good amount of talent.

Shumpert IMO actually has a decent b-ball IQ, it just needs to be brought out by a coach who can teach him more AND demand that he does it, aka not Paul Hewitt.

He is 6-5, excellent handles, quick first step, and while his jumper is far from consistent, he does have pretty good form. He also has shown some ability to make nifty passes in the half court, though he needs to become more comfortable to do so consistently.

However, defensively is where he shines. He was the best on-ball defender I saw in the whole country last year. Again, he is 6-5 with super-long arms and great lateral quickness. Definitely bow-legged.

the best part about his defense is that he embraces it, and defends consistently. He is the reason GT beat UMD in the ACC tourney. He shut down Greivis, gave him all types of problems. Then in the NCAA tourney he took everybodys favorite (including mine) James Anderson completely out of the game. It wasn't as if Anderson had a horrible game, Shumperts defense is just that good.

I'm not sure where we will pick, but if were looking for a long-term Hinrich replacement as a very good defender at the 1 and 2, then he is he guy. The fact that he has offensive potential is even better. This is a guy just begging to be coached, but the tools and willingness to defend are there.

[Ruzious]

Stags, if he makes it, I'll bow to you as a basketball god, because I just don't see it. I think he'd be a good streetball player, but not in organized basketball that requires actual teamwork. He had one brilliant game last season and probably 25 terrible games.

[doclinkin]

Still on track for Harrison Barnes or Perry Jones:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NITMcVLpEOI[/youtube]

[kirubel94]

Still on track for Harrison Barnes or Perry Jones:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NITMcVLpEOI[/youtube]

Been looking at jones scouting report , can do everything, but doesnt allways play up to his talent, they say he can be a kevin durant or jonathan bender, but its all up to him

[closg00]

Thanks for bringing this back, I have been looking at the mocks for next year already

[Hoopalotta]

Keep in mind that if the labor negotiations are going as poorly as they well might and there's talk of a year long lockout, come the time for guys to declare for the draft, we'd be lucky to see half the names listed on DX actually coming out.

A whole host of guys listed up in the late teens and twenties could be late lottery picks by default.

There isn't a free agency thread, but the thing that would be interesting in a yearlong lockout situation is that the 2011 and 2012 free agent classes would be compacted into one giant super class with the Rose & Durant draft classes up along with guys like Melo, Paul, Deron and Dwight. I for one don't believe the chatter about Ted being averse to free agency in general; my take is that he just wants to make the majority of contract commitments under the new CBA and build a young team.

[gesa2]

Say we struggle this year, end up with the 5th worst record again (god forbid), then have a year long lock out next year. The draft pick from 2011 may not be quite as good, but our draft position will stay at 5, instead of worsening like we would expect it to. So then we draft early in a loaded draft. AND, if some of the talent from 2011 waits a year, what will the early second round look like? We may well get a contributor from our second round pick as well. You could argue that a lockout will give us more talent overall in the next 2 drafts.

[montestewart]

Say we struggle this year, end up with the 5th worst record again (god forbid), then have a year long lock out next year. The draft pick from 2011 may not be quite as good, but our draft position will stay at 5, instead of worsening like we would expect it to. So then we draft early in a loaded draft. AND, if some of the talent from 2011 waits a year, what will the early second round look like? We may well get a contributor from our second round pick as well. You could argue that a lockout will give us more talent overall in the next 2 drafts.

Just to clarify (not sure I understand this) if there is a year long lockout, at the end of that year, every team's draft position is, for the second consecutive year, based on the standing from two seasons back? I guess that makes sense, but I don't recall a situation where a league has had to address such a scenario. I guess that could be really good news for the Wizards in the long term, though a year long strike would be horrible for fans in the short term, and might be damaging to the league overall.

[Hoopalotta]

Say we struggle this year, end up with the 5th worst record again (god forbid), then have a year long lock out next year. The draft pick from 2011 may not be quite as good, but our draft position will stay at 5, instead of worsening like we would expect it to. So then we draft early in a loaded draft. AND, if some of the talent from 2011 waits a year, what will the early second round look like? We may well get a contributor from our second round pick as well. You could argue that a lockout will give us more talent overall in the next 2 drafts.

I have definitely been considering this angle, but we need to concede that the selection process in 2012 is a major wild card.

I've scoured up as much info as I can as to what would happen, but I think the general consensus is that it would be something more like a staggered lottery based on........something or another. I have seen the idea that they would just repeat the 2011 draft order again in 2012 shot down a few times. I do agree that the 2012 lottery should stand to be great (lockout or no), but nobody knows how it's going to work out. Under the yearlong lockout scenario, the other extreme position would be a 30 team lottery with everyone having even odds.

So you've got "repeat 2011 draft order again in 2012" and "30 team lottery with even odds" as extreme outliers on each end of the spectrum; one extremely biased towards specific bad teams and the other overly egalitarian. The likely actual result is that it will be something in between. I think I saw it mentioned that after a yearlong hockey lockout they did some kind of a draft seeding based on 5 year records.

[montestewart]

^
I blocked out of my mind that NHL lost an entire season. Hope the NBA doesn't repeat that.

[closg00]

Since we took such a wild swing with Seraphin, we could do the same next draft should there be a lock-out. We could do a wink and a nod agreement with some college frosh that we like or draft and stash a Foreign player...they are getting better and better.

[Ruzious]

Tobias Harris is the player I would target if I'm the Wiz. He reminds me so much of Melo, it's scary. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... ias-harris

[doclinkin]

Since we took such a wild swing with Seraphin, we could do the same next draft should there be a lock-out. We could do a wink and a nod agreement with some college frosh that we like or draft and stash a Foreign player...they are getting better and better.

Actually I suspect we may see a few college players pull a Brandon Jennings and hop to Euroball for an early payday. There are always one or two Euro clubs looking to poach talent, even if the results have been upsy downsy. Still your 'draft and stash' pool may suddenly include top talent 'mericans. Which can go a few different ways depending on how their contract is structured and depending on how restrictive or flexible the payscale is in the new CBA.

It could mean that a high talent player slips late due to murmurs that he'll ink in Europe. But if and when he returns to your team he may prove a better seasoned professional player.

It could mean under a modified CBA that the Euro leagues prove a more profitable payday and said player sticks with Efes Pilsen or FC Barca or whatnot, a wasted pick.

Could be that a newly minted Chinese billionaire sees a chance to profit on the NBA's gripes and plunders a few quality competitors (draftees and free agents alike).

Could be the NCAA sees a forward looking opportunity and allows a drafted player to return to school while the NBA team retains their draft rights, so long as they accept no money or sign with an agent. A la Baseball, hockey, and so on.

No matter. Whatever the mechanism for player selection, whatever the CBA provisions, ultimately young superstars generally prove the best bargain for a team. With our keystone point guard in place, I suspect this squad may prove an enticing prospect for a young competitor who wants to play alongside an unselfish team-oriented metatalent like Johnny Ballgame. If we 'luck' into a top slot, never know, we may actually see a given player decide to skip to the league on the prospect that they will have less competition for that top slot and a better chance to land with an up-and-comer like this DC squad.

Never know. That's the fun part of perceiving time in a linear fashion. Provided you like surprises or novelty.

[gesa2]

I've scoured up as much info as I can as to what would happen, but I think the general consensus is that it would be something more like a staggered lottery based on........something or another. I have seen the idea that they would just repeat the 2011 draft order again in 2012 shot down a few times. I do agree that the 2012 lottery should stand to be great (lockout or no), but nobody knows how it's going to work out. Under the yearlong lockout scenario, the other extreme position would be a 30 team lottery with everyone having even odds.

So you've got "repeat 2011 draft order again in 2012" and "30 team lottery with even odds" as extreme outliers on each end of the spectrum; one extremely biased towards specific bad teams and the other overly egalitarian. The likely actual result is that it will be something in between. I think I saw it mentioned that after a yearlong hockey lockout they did some kind of a draft seeding based on 5 year records.

A lot more complicated than I was speculating! I'd forgotten how Hockey did it. Well, we would do pretty well with 5 year records too I guess.