Two Reasons Trading McGee for Bogut is a Bad Idea

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Gaffs, blooper real plays, atrocious pick and roll defense, backing down from physical players--all of Javale's faults considered; McGee is still one of the three most effective players on the Wizards.

While I totally agree with the sentiment that trading McGee for
Bogut would be a bad move - because Bogut is damaged goods -
saying you shouldn't trade him because he is one of our 3 best
players is not a good reason not to.

+1. I think CCJ puts a compelling argument together with respect to Boguts injury history. I didn't realize it was that bad. However, just like the Bucks fans might be overrating Bogut, I think CCJ and some other fans overrate McGee. I don't care what some metric rates McGee (which, by the way, being third best on a piss poor team, doesn't really excite me too much) or what McGee's individual stats are, my eyes and actual results tell me that McGee does not make this team better. Indeed, [b]more often than not, the team plays worse when he is on the court, as demonstrated by the fact he has the worst on/off numbers on the team. Too many times this season, it has been noticeable how much better the Wizards play when he is not on the court.[b] Its more than his gaffes and WTF moments that make the team play worse. Its his horrendous P&R defense, the fact he is out of position all the time, the fact he can't guard stronger players, and the fact that for every block he gets, he usually misses and gives up 3-4 offensive rebounds. It is also because he sets horrible picks, too often takes horrible shots, and is a poor and reluctant passer for a big man. This team is epically bad this season and McGee is a big part of why the team is that way. McGee's problems are much greater than just eliminating a few dumb mistakes. I can understand people not wanting to trade for Bogut because of Bogut's injury history, but let's not make it sound like we got something in McGee thats all that great too, because we don't.

dandridge, I see the same things you're seeing and I'm one of Javale's biggest supporters. You've noticed McGee's poor on/off numbers. So have I. But what do they really show?

Here stats indicate McGee makes the Wizards -12.0 points worse per 48 minutes this season.
http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

*However, stats indicate McGee made the Wizards +6.8 points better per 48 minutes last season.
http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS22.HTM

I am not sure what to make of it. What has happened?

My thought is why not just play Seraphin more and keep using McGee at his fullest intensity and effort, even if he starts to play more against second units?

Also, I don't trust on/off or what I see nearly as much as the tracker above.

I might be overrating McGee but I am positive the overall perception of McGee's value is too low among most Wizards fans.

[Illuminaire]

I think the issue is that with McGee, we know the effort will be inconsistent, and we know our team defense will have a low ceiling.

To me, it's very telling that he was left off the USA medal squad. He was the best athlete of the bigs, he was the only fully healthy guy, they were thin at center even if they kept him.... and the coaches for team USA passed.

In an ideal world I'd like to try him for another year or two under a new coach, but we don't live in that world, and we have to decide to pay him now or not. With what we know, I'd really prefer not to, unless we can somehow get him on a below market contract.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Good points, CCJ.

I only favor acquiring Bogut in a deal where we send the Bucks McGee and Blatche, or McGee and Lewis. Essentially, I agree with your issues with his production and injury risk and only want him in a situation where we're clearing some cap space and moving a malcontent.

As a locker room guy and a defensive anchor, I really like Bogut. Since he's on a two year deal, I'd be OK rolling the dice with him... if we're not giving up any assets aside from McGee. Of course, it's unlikely the Bucks would agree to that, so I suppose my practical position is not to make the trade.

As things stand, I just don't believe we can win playoff basketball games with McGee at center. He doesn't get it. He's not defensively aware. He doesn't make our team defense better and he can't stop a pick and roll if his momma's life depended on it. Good teams will always thrash us as long as he's the man in the middle... and that makes me want to get SOMETHING for him before he cashes in and becomes an expensive mistake.

Bogut stays hurt and unlike McGee, there's no chance he improves.

The problem with the Wizards is they talk down their talent so much that they get pennies on the dollar for it. I think the real goal for Ted Leonsis is to get rid of Blatche and/or Lewis more than it is to trade Javale. That saves Ted money. Ernie Grunfeld gave Blatche his deal. Ernie gave injured Gil--who was traded for Lewis--his deal. Ernie is the reason Blatche is getting $7.75M and Lewis $21M.

What the Bucks really hope is that people want Bogut based on the perceptions he'll be what he has only been healthy enough to be a portion of the time he collects $13M each season.

They also hope McGee improves, which I think is VERY likely. Wizard fans are really emotional about McGee. So much so they don't see the one thing that he has gotten better and better at: Rebounding. Even in the Laker game, McGee got a double double in 22 minutes against Bynum and Gasol. For all the talk about DeAndre Jordan, McGee scored on him easily.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html

McGee is one of just five players averaging at least 11.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and two blocked shots – Josh Smith and all-stars Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Andrew Bynum are the others – but he has also mixed the spectacular with the perplexing.

What I think is McGee's situation in is as weird as his plus minus and the things we have seen on the court. (See, last season when he had the Wizard's best plus minus overall.)

I don't mind him being traded, but getting Bogut back is just paying for an injured player and giving away talent for nothing.

The Wizards are so dumb they have forgotten who gave Blatche his contract. Same guy who is going to do something else bad IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think the issue is that with McGee, we know the effort will be inconsistent, and we know our team defense will have a low ceiling.

To me, it's very telling that he was left off the USA medal squad. He was the best athlete of the bigs, he was the only fully healthy guy, they were thin at center even if they kept him.... and the coaches for team USA passed.

In an ideal world I'd like to try him for another year or two under a new coach, but we don't live in that world, and we have to decide to pay him now or not. With what we know, I'd really prefer not to, unless we can somehow get him on a below market contract.

Then put Seraphin in the game for McGee, and keep an eye out for McGee learning from the bench and continuing to play with 100% effort.

I think getting Bogut is not good because Seraphin is turning into a guy who needs at least 20-25 minutes a game.

[Illuminaire]

Having more dependable talent at the center position is a problem I would love to have.

As for Javale, somehow I doubt McGee is going to learn more from the bench than he has in his four year career thus far.

McGee is going to get 10 million a year from *someone*. I'm not excited to pay that to a guy who you just admitted might need benching and to not even crack 30 minutes a night in playing time.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Having more dependable talent at the center position is a problem I would love to have.

As for Javale, somehow I doubt McGee is going to learn more from the bench than he has in his four year career thus far.

McGee is going to get 10 million a year from *someone*. I'm not excited to pay that to a guy who you just admitted might need benching and to not even crack 30 minutes a night in playing time.

Right now I'm hoping for another deal that sends a young player or a late round pick.

I think it would be better to let somebody overpay McGee, and just bid on Hibbert, Asik, etc. than to bring in an older player or players, particularly with injury history.

[Illuminaire]

Fair enough. I agree, for the most part - hence only wanting to trade McGee for an older, injured player if we were moving a bad contract at the same time. (And thus, coming out ahead in cap terms)

I'd prefer to get a pick in the 12-18 range for McGee if we can somehow swing it. One can dream!

[Ruzious]

Having more dependable talent at the center position is a problem I would love to have.

As for Javale, somehow I doubt McGee is going to learn more from the bench than he has in his four year career thus far.

McGee is going to get 10 million a year from *someone*. I'm not excited to pay that to a guy who you just admitted might need benching and to not even crack 30 minutes a night in playing time.

Right now I'm hoping for another deal that sends a young player or a late round pick.

I think it would be better to let somebody overpay McGee, and just bid on Hibbert, Asik, etc. than to bring in an older player or players, particularly with injury history.

That's probably the prudent thing to do. Keeping alive the option of keeping McGee is important. It's like having a safety net. And even if we do end up signing another center, we'd have the option of doing a sign and trade with Javale - so we don't have to trade him now to get value for him.

My guess is - if EG is still the GM in the offseason - the Wiz make a big push for Spencer Hawes - remembering EG tried to trade up for him the year he picked Young. And Hawes is unrestricted. Unfortunately (or fortunately, if it keeps his price down and he's 100% healthy), his injury problems might be worse than Bogut's.

[Illuminaire]

New Sign+Trade rules are not terribly favorable for the trader. I doubt we'd get anything worth our time.

[Ruzious]

New Sign+Trade rules are not terribly favorable for the trader. I doubt we'd get anything worth our time.

True - you can't convey the extra year, and the raises are limted to 4.5% instead of 7.5% (?), but really the raise difference isn't that much - and the 1 year difference might not be a big deal for younger players. I think there still will be some S&T action. For teams over the cap, the option is still very useful.

[Jazzfan12]

You guys are seriously overrating McGee. A defensive center who is not terrible should be able to get his team to something better than 27th in defense. Bogut has lead teams to top 5 defensive marks despite those defenses becoming terrible when he gets injured (though the unbelievably terrible Drew Gooden has major effects on how bad the Bucks are defensively with Bogut injured)

Also, it's important to point out that on/off stats rate McGee as easily the worst player on the Wizards and it's not close in the slightest.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 2&team=WAS

[Ruzious]

You guys are seriously overrating McGee. A defensive center who is not terrible should be able to get his team to something better than 27th in defense. Bogut has lead teams to top 5 defensive marks despite those defenses becoming terrible when he gets injured (though the unbelievably terrible Drew Gooden has major effects on how bad the Bucks are defensively with Bogut injured)

How bout this Jazzfan - you trade for Bogut to play half seasons and pay him the 27 mil he's owed over the next 2 seasons. Send us postcards letting us know how that's working out for ya - and if the accumulated injuries make him more athletic or even less athletic - and if he can keep his FT% above Andre Drummond's. Deal?

Btw, I'm speaking as a Bucks fan.

[jivelikenice]

McGee is not ascending...I don't get that part of the argument. He was ascending to start the season but has regressed since and his lack of bball IQ is a SERIOUS problem that in & of itself hurts his trade value. He is a RFA this offseason and a team will throw $10-$12 MM his way. Are any of you prepared to match that? If not then we will lose him for nothing. It's year 4 and I still consider him a huge question mark and don't consider him a piece to the puzzle. if he's not that yet then how can you commit that much money to him. The SECOND he signs a big contract or we match that offer, he's untradeable!

[Ruzious]

You guys are seriously overrating McGee. A defensive center who is not terrible should be able to get his team to something better than 27th in defense. Bogut has lead teams to top 5 defensive marks despite those defenses becoming terrible when he gets injured (though the unbelievably terrible Drew Gooden has major effects on how bad the Bucks are defensively with Bogut injured)

Also, it's important to point out that on/off stats rate McGee as easily the worst player on the Wizards and it's not close in the slightest.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 2&team=WAS

Nice edit - except the +/- thing was just discussed here, and he had the opposite situation last season.

[Nivek]

dandridge, I see the same things you're seeing and I'm one of Javale's biggest supporters. You've noticed McGee's poor on/off numbers. So have I. But what do they really show?

Here stats indicate McGee makes the Wizards -12.0 points worse per 48 minutes this season.
http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

*However, stats indicate McGee made the Wizards +6.8 points better per 48 minutes last season.
http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS22.HTM

I am not sure what to make of it. What has happened?

My thought is why not just play Seraphin more and keep using McGee at his fullest intensity and effort, even if he starts to play more against second units?

Also, I don't trust on/off or what I see nearly as much as the tracker above.

I might be overrating McGee but I am positive the overall perception of McGee's value is too low among most Wizards fans.

The on/off stats don't say that McGee made the Wiz 6.8 points better or that McGee is making them 12 points worse. Those numbers say what happens at a TEAM level when McGee is on the floor, which may seem like the same thing, but actually is not. McGee might be causing the results we see in the numbers, and he might not. Determining causality takes additional analysis.

[Illuminaire]

Dude, it's McGee. Of course it's his fault.

All kidding aside, I'd be very interested in what Synergy tracking says about McGee's defensive shortcomings and strengths.

[dobrojim]

I think the issue is that with McGee, we know the effort will be inconsistent, and we know our team defense will have a low ceiling.

To me, it's very telling that he was left off the USA medal squad. He was the best athlete of the bigs, he was the only fully healthy guy, they were thin at center even if they kept him.... and the coaches for team USA passed.

In an ideal world I'd like to try him for another year or two under a new coach, but we don't live in that world, and we have to decide to pay him now or not. With what we know, I'd really prefer not to, unless we can somehow get him on a below market contract.

That's my biggest concern. I think his effort is generally reasonable.
It's more that he just doesn't have a very good feel for making solid
basketball plays, especially defensively. His athleticism is beyond question.

[FreeBalling]

The Wizards medical staff must of OK'D this deal.

Say no to this deal.

[Nivek]

Dude, it's McGee. Of course it's his fault.

All kidding aside, I'd be very interested in what Synergy tracking says about McGee's defensive shortcomings and strengths.

Earlier in the season, Synergy said McGee was the team's worst man defender. Don't know what their numbers say now.

I do have some issues with how Synergy tracks, but their video connection sorta stomped all over my laborious defensive tracking system.

Dammit.

[jivelikenice]

Whats the deal we're saying no to? McGee and fillers for Bogut?