Diamonds in the rough

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Michael Beasley has been on a downward spiral and just got busted with weed again.

His first two seasons weren't bad. He's 24 years old. Once had a 22 point, 15 rebound playoff game when he was 20 years old playing with the Heat. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lmi01.html

Is "Super Cool Beas" possibly a diamond in the rough ...

Or is Michael Beasley's career up in smoke?

[Ruzious]

Michael Beasley has been on a downward spiral and just got busted with weed again.

His first two seasons weren't bad. He's 24 years old. Once had a 22 point, 15 rebound playoff game when he was 20 years old playing with the Heat. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lmi01.html

Is "Super Cool Beas" possibly a diamond in the rough ...

Or is Michael Beasley's career up in smoke?

Remember Eddie Griffin? Beasley could end up down that path. I wouldn't touch him.

[Dat2U]

Looking at the advanced numbers, Beasley looks like the worst player in league, period. I think he's one of those guys that you don't acquire under any circumstances.

[Nivek]

Looking at the advanced numbers, Beasley looks like the worst player in league, period. I think he's one of those guys that you don't acquire under any circumstances.

Close.

Going by PPA, Beasley was 12th worst last season (among players who got at least 500 total minutes):

1. Austin Rivers -- 0
2. Xavier Henry -- 9
3. Ronnie Price -- 15
4. Dahntay Jones -- 15
5. Jan Vesely -- 19
6. Sasha Pavlovic -- 21
7. Draymond Green -- 21
8. Norris Cole -- 21
9. Kevin Seraphin -- 22
10. Darius Miller -- 22
11. Chris Singleton -- 24
12. Michael Beasley -- 26

Beasley is a guy I was interested in last offseason as a one-year, minimum salary kinda guy. I thought he might be a good salvage project given his outstanding college production and the theory that he may have been hindered by playing at SF instead of PF. But then Phoenix gave him that nutty contract. At least they had the sense to not fully guarantee the third year.

[Dat2U]

Looking at the advanced numbers, Beasley looks like the worst player in league, period. I think he's one of those guys that you don't acquire under any circumstances.

Close.

Going by PPA, Beasley was 12th worst last season (among players who got at least 500 total minutes):

1. Austin Rivers -- 0
2. Xavier Henry -- 9
3. Ronnie Price -- 15
4. Dahntay Jones -- 15
5. Jan Vesely -- 19
6. Sasha Pavlovic -- 21
7. Draymond Green -- 21
8. Norris Cole -- 21
9. Kevin Seraphin -- 22
10. Darius Miller -- 22
11. Chris Singleton -- 24
12. Michael Beasley -- 26

Beasley is a guy I was interested in last offseason as a one-year, minimum salary kinda guy. I thought he might be a good salvage project given his outstanding college production and the theory that he may have been hindered by playing at SF instead of PF. But then Phoenix gave him that nutty contract. At least they had the sense to not fully guarantee the third year.

Any list with 3 of Ernie's kids on it is generally a bad list to be associated with.

[payitforward]

... Going by PPA, ...

How would I "go by PPA", Kev -- is there a formula for it? Is it your personal roll-up formula? Is it based on box score numbers? Or those numbers plus something else used to adjust them or added in to them?

Tell us something, please.

[Nivek]

... Going by PPA, ...

How would I "go by PPA", Kev -- is there a formula for it? Is it your personal roll-up formula? Is it based on box score numbers? Or those numbers plus something else used to adjust them or added in to them?

Tell us something, please.

There is a formula, which I haven't published yet.

I've described it in general terms at the blog and (I thought) here, but maybe not . Here's the nutshell: it's derived from the box score. It includes an accounting for defense (a combination of box score measures the team's defensive rating with the player on the court), and a "degree of difficulty" factor based on an estimate of the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. I also make a pace adjustment.

In terms of weights, they're closer to Wins Produced than to PER. But not identical. PPA handles offensive efficiency and rebounding differently.

PPA is a per minute stat. I set the league average at 100 for each season. Higher is better. Replacement level is 45.

I'm going through a possible project that would use PPA, and would include the formulas in that. For now, to paraphrase the words of the Rev. Fred Sultan from The Great White Hype, I'm not giving away what I'm trying to sell.

[payitforward]

(PPA) is ...derived from the box score. It includes an accounting for defense (a combination of box score measures with the team's defensive rating with the player on the court), and a "degree of difficulty" factor based on an estimate of the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. I also make a pace adjustment.

In terms of weights, they're closer to Wins Produced than to PER. But not identical. PPA handles offensive efficiency and rebounding differently.

PPA is a per minute stat. I set the league average at 100 for each season. Higher is better. Replacement level is 45.

I'm going through a possible project that would use PPA, and would include the formulas in that. For now, to paraphrase the words of the Rev. Fred Sultan from The Great White Hype, I'm not giving away what I'm trying to sell.

(Note that I added the word "with" above -- do I have the description right?)

Thanks, Kevin. I might start a thread on the subject of productivity measurement systems -- my only reluctance is that I wonder how many people would be interested. I have questions and comments on the above but will save them for later.

Well, one comment -- the problem w/ secret formulas is that they're secret, making it hard to know how usable and scalable they are. Some times it's better business to open the formula, use it to make predictions, then get paid as a guru when you are right. Just a thought, and in any case good luck landing the project.

[verbal8]

Is Jan Vesely not on this list?

He is on the Cubic Zirconia/Pyrite list.

[FreeBalling]

I thought Dominic McGuire was going to be a diamond in the rough. I missed that one.

[closg00]

The Cats are working out Seth Curry, perhaps he's a minor chip of the block.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Looking at the advanced numbers, Beasley looks like the worst player in league, period. I think he's one of those guys that you don't acquire under any circumstances.

Close.

Going by PPA, Beasley was 12th worst last season (among players who got at least 500 total minutes):


[*] Austin Rivers -- 0
[*] Xavier Henry -- 9
[*] Ronnie Price -- 15
[*] Dahntay Jones -- 15
[*] Jan Vesely -- 19
[*] Sasha Pavlovic -- 21
[*] Draymond Green -- 21
[*] Norris Cole -- 21
[*] Kevin Seraphin -- 22
[*] Darius Miller -- 22
[*] Chris Singleton -- 24
[*] Michael Beasley -- 26

Beasley is a guy I was interested in last offseason as a one-year, minimum salary kinda guy. I thought he might be a good salvage project given his outstanding college production and the theory that he may have been hindered by playing at SF instead of PF. But then Phoenix gave him that nutty contract. At least they had the sense to not fully guarantee the third year.

So you're saying he would be an upgrade? Quick Ernie, get Beasley!

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

He might not have been a diamond, but Deshawn Stevenson was a pretty productive player for us for a couple years who Ernie plucked out of nowhere.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Looking at the advanced numbers, Beasley looks like the worst player in league, period. I think he's one of those guys that you don't acquire under any circumstances.

Close.

Going by PPA, Beasley was 12th worst last season (among players who got at least 500 total minutes):

1. Austin Rivers -- 0
2. Xavier Henry -- 9
3. Ronnie Price -- 15
4. Dahntay Jones -- 15
5. Jan Vesely -- 19
6. Sasha Pavlovic -- 21
7. Draymond Green -- 21
8. Norris Cole -- 21
9. Kevin Seraphin -- 22
10. Darius Miller -- 22
11. Chris Singleton -- 24
12. Michael Beasley -- 26

Beasley is a guy I was interested in last offseason as a one-year, minimum salary kinda guy. I thought he might be a good salvage project given his outstanding college production and the theory that he may have been hindered by playing at SF instead of PF. But then Phoenix gave him that nutty contract. At least they had the sense to not fully guarantee the third year.

Useful role players can still be ineffective according to PPA, is an observation I'm making based on this list.

Also, Nivek, seems like how a team utilizes a player and whether a player changes teams seems to allow great fluctuation in PPA from year to year is another observation.

Norris Cole helped Miami win the championship more than he hurt them. At times Parker did go right at him and destroyed him. Cole had moments where he was a spark/energy player. Draymond Green had good moments in the Warriors' playoff run.

I wonder about this list as far as players' roles and possibly minutes are concerned.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jordan Williams is one of the guys I think is a DitR. Drafted #36 in 2011, had quite a good rookie season w/ the Nets. Went to Atlanta in (I think) as a throw-in part of the Joe Johnson trade. Didn't flourish there and is now out of the league it seems.

I questioned him coming out of college, but he slimmed down and showed that he has game. A DitR, IMO.

I'm biased, as a Terp fan. I would like Jordan Williams in the spot they couldn't offer Blair. Jordan is probably better than Seraphin. Williams is a very good rebounder and he can score fairly efficiently. pif, you are right that going to Atlanta is what made him fall through the cracks.

Williams played well with the Nets.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

... Going by PPA, ...

How would I "go by PPA", Kev -- is there a formula for it? Is it your personal roll-up formula? Is it based on box score numbers? Or those numbers plus something else used to adjust them or added in to them?

Tell us something, please.

There is a formula, which I haven't published yet.

I've described it in general terms at the blog and (I thought) here, but maybe not . Here's the nutshell: it's derived from the box score. It includes an accounting for defense (a combination of box score measures the team's defensive rating with the player on the court), and a "degree of difficulty" factor based on an estimate of the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. I also make a pace adjustment.

In terms of weights, they're closer to Wins Produced than to PER. But not identical. PPA handles offensive efficiency and rebounding differently.

PPA is a per minute stat. I set the league average at 100 for each season. Higher is better. Replacement level is 45.

I'm going through a possible project that would use PPA, and would include the formulas in that. For now, to paraphrase the words of the Rev. Fred Sultan from The Great White Hype, I'm not giving away what I'm trying to sell.

Preach.

Sounds wise, Nivek. I've given much away only to regret it later. It's not good business when others profit from your own hard work and great ideas.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I thought Dominic McGuire was going to be a diamond in the rough. I missed that one.

You got the rough part right.

I like McGuire. He has had a decent NBA career as a deep reserve.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

He might not have been a diamond, but Deshawn Stevenson was a pretty productive player for us for a couple years who Ernie plucked out of nowhere.

Agree. Also, Stevenson, (along with Shawn Marion doing most of the work), really frustrated Lebron James when the Mavericks won the title in 2011. love the way Deshawn competes when he's angry. In one finals game he dropped a lot of threes and didn't stop talking at Lebron.

Stevenson has had a very useful NBA career for many different teams.

There are other diamonds the Wizards could acquire who can be spark plug players, like Deshawn. I have to give EG credit for Stevenson.

[Dat2U]

Looking at the advanced numbers, Beasley looks like the worst player in league, period. I think he's one of those guys that you don't acquire under any circumstances.

Close.

Going by PPA, Beasley was 12th worst last season (among players who got at least 500 total minutes):

1. Austin Rivers -- 0
2. Xavier Henry -- 9
3. Ronnie Price -- 15
4. Dahntay Jones -- 15
5. Jan Vesely -- 19
6. Sasha Pavlovic -- 21
7. Draymond Green -- 21
8. Norris Cole -- 21
9. Kevin Seraphin -- 22
10. Darius Miller -- 22
11. Chris Singleton -- 24
12. Michael Beasley -- 26

Beasley is a guy I was interested in last offseason as a one-year, minimum salary kinda guy. I thought he might be a good salvage project given his outstanding college production and the theory that he may have been hindered by playing at SF instead of PF. But then Phoenix gave him that nutty contract. At least they had the sense to not fully guarantee the third year.

Useful role players can still be ineffective according to PPA, is an observation I'm making based on this list.

Also, Nivek, seems like how a team utilizes a player and whether a player changes teams seems to allow great fluctuation in PPA from year to year is another observation.

Norris Cole helped Miami win the championship more than he hurt them. At times Parker did go right at him and destroyed him. Cole had moments where he was a spark/energy player. Draymond Green had good moments in the Warriors' playoff run.

I wonder about this list as far as players' roles and possibly minutes are concerned.

I don't know, I think Cole is the one and possibly only weak spot in Miami's rotation. I think it's quite possible to win in spite of someone. Just because a guy is a rotation player on a championship team doesn't necessarily mean he's an important piece to the puzzle or irreplaceable. I think Miami could have replaced Cole with A.J. Price and would not have missed a beat.

Draymond Green had some nice moments last year which exemplifies his effort, but he really didn't have a good season. He's the definition of a tweener. Doesn't have the floor game or shooting ability of a wing player nor does he have the strength & size of a post player. I think Green may stick in the league for a while because of his intangibles but in reality were probably looking at a 12th or 13th man on most teams rosters.

[Nivek]

Useful role players can still be ineffective according to PPA, is an observation I'm making based on this list.

Norris Cole helped Miami win the championship more than he hurt them. At times Parker did go right at him and destroyed him. Cole had moments where he was a spark/energy player. Draymond Green had good moments in the Warriors' playoff run.

I wonder about this list as far as players' roles and possibly minutes are concerned.

These aren't the conclusions I'd reach. The list of bad players was from the regular season. In the regular season, Cole shot badly and didn't do much else. He was a poor shooting Nick Young, basically. In the playoffs, he shot the ball extremely well -- 53% from 3pt range. The rest of his numbers were very similar to his regular season stats.

Also, Nivek, seems like how a team utilizes a player and whether a player changes teams seems to allow great fluctuation in PPA from year to year is another observation.

How a team uses a player affects a guy's productivity. Tell a guy to stop shooting or stop going for offensive rebounds and that player will score less or grab fewer offensive rebounds. To the extent that changing teams changes a player's role, his productivity can change too. However, what an array of basketball researchers have found is that the stats of NBA players are much more stable than they are in the other major sports -- even when players change teams or their team changes players around them. This is true of PPA, which comes from the box score stats.