Is Wall Top 5 PG?

[Nivek]

Top 5, not yet. Top 10, yes. I expect to him to be top 3 within the next year or two. As Chris Paul declines over next few years, I believe Wall will be the best PG in the league.

As is often the case, Dat is correct about Wall's current ranking.

As for the future: Paul (and others) will have to do some major declining or Wall will have to do some major improving.

put him in the right system and he's there. As for not top 5, who would you guys put over him

This is for this season only. Not projecting what guys might do in the future. Not worrying about age, contract or any other factors but production so far this season. So, here are a couple lists based on my overall rating stat (PPA).

TOTAL PRODUCTION

1. Chris Paul
2. Stephen Curry
3. Kyle Lowry
4. Damian Lillard
5. Ty Lawson
6. Mike Conley
7. John Wall

PER MINUTE (minimum 300 minutes)

1. Chris Paul
2. Stephen Curry
3. Kyle Lowry
4. Mike Conley
5. Ty Lawson
6. Isaiah Thomas
7. Damian Lillard
8. Russell Westbrook
9. Tony Parker
10. Eric Bledsoe
11. John Wall

[Scabs304]

As is often the case, Dat is correct about Wall's current ranking.

As for the future: Paul (and others) will have to do some major declining or Wall will have to do some major improving.

put him in the right system and he's there. As for not top 5, who would you guys put over him

This is for this season only. Not projecting what guys might do in the future. Not worrying about age, contract or any other factors but production so far this season. So, here are a couple lists based on my overall rating stat (PPA).

TOTAL PRODUCTION

1. Chris Paul
2. Stephen Curry
3. Kyle Lowry
4. Damian Lillard
5. Ty Lawson
6. Mike Conley
7. John Wall

PER MINUTE (minimum 300 minutes)

1. Chris Paul
2. Stephen Curry
3. Kyle Lowry
4. Mike Conley
5. Ty Lawson
6. Isaiah Thomas
7. Damian Lillard
8. Russell Westbrook
9. Tony Parker
10. Eric Bledsoe
11. John Wall

ALOT of good point guards in the league. Majority in the western conference. Is there even a question that he is an all star this year though?

[AFM]

He's a better dancer than any of those losers Nivek posted.

Ever see Stephen Curry do the dougie? Conley do the cat daddy? Parker do the Bernie?

[Nivek]

Good to see you back on the boards, Scabs.

To me, there's no question Wall should be an All-Star. Top Eastern Conference guards :

PER MINUTE

1. Wade
2. Lowry
3. Korver
4. Wall
5. D. Williams

TOTAL PRODUCTION

1. Lowry
2. Wall
3. Afflalo
4. Korver
5. Wade

[GhostsOfGil]

I'm not understanding this assessment. You say Wall dominated the league last year but is not the same this year?

Season 12-13 Avg. 18.5 points and 7.6 assists

Season 13-14 Avg 19.6 points and 8.6 assists

Previous years Wall did not shoot as much, but he actually seems to shoot way more this year. If you look up his stats, his 3 point attempts and made 3 pointers more than doubled from last year.

John was certainly better last season. The main regression has come from his inability to get to the line.

12-13 PER 36 minute production: 7FTA, 20.4 ppg, 8.4 apg, 52 TS%, 20.8 PER, .8 bpg
13-14 PER 34 minute production: 5.3 FTA, 19 ppg, 8.3 apg, 51 TS%, 19.8 PER, .4 bpg

[AFM]

Kevin "Lowry Lover" Nivek.

You his agent or somethin'?

[Ruzious]

There's a clear top four in Parker, Paul, Westbrook, & Curry. Wall is in the next tier and where he ranks amongst the next group is up for debate....

I don't think Westbrook belongs up there. He's barely ahead of Wall, and I expect Wall to at least catch up with him by next season. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being Parker's last season belonging in the top 3. He's still great, but I think he's lost a half step, and when you lose a half step, another is often soon to go.

[Ruzious]

Kevin "Lowry Lover" Nivek.

You his agent or somethin'?

Lowry is a great player, imo. He's not the cookie-cutter ideal of what a great PG is supposed to be, so he gets overlooked.

[Nivek]

Kevin "Lowry Lover" Nivek.

You his agent or somethin'?

Why yes. See, I did a bunch of work creating a rating system that relates individual player stats to wins for the sole purpose of expressing my deep and abiding love for Kyle Lowry. I actually was going to name it the LPA (Lowry Production Average), but fishercob (who shares my passion for Lowry) talked me out of it.

[Nivek]

Kevin "Lowry Lover" Nivek.

You his agent or somethin'?

Lowry is a great player, imo. He's not the cookie-cutter ideal of what a great PG is supposed to be, so he gets overlooked.

Here's Lowry and Wall -- numbers are per 40 minutes and are pace adjusted to a 100-possession game.

Code: Select all

PER 40  Lowry   Wall
GMS     35      35
MPG     36.3    37.2
Usg     20.7%   27.5%
ortg    119     105
efg     .524    .451
2pt%    .464    .442
3pt%    .389    .321
ft%     .803    .841
reb     4.9     4.7
ast     8.8     9.9
stl     2.0     2.3
blk     0.2     0.4
tov     2.6     4.0
pf      3.9     2.8
pts     18.7    22.5
PPA     168     140


Pretty comparable in the non-scoring parts of their games, but Lowry this season is WAY more efficient on the offensive end.

[tontoz]

I'm not understanding this assessment. You say Wall dominated the league last year but is not the same this year?

Season 12-13 Avg. 18.5 points and 7.6 assists

Season 13-14 Avg 19.6 points and 8.6 assists

Previous years Wall did not shoot as much, but he actually seems to shoot way more this year. If you look up his stats, his 3 point attempts and made 3 pointers more than doubled from last year.

John was certainly better last season. The main regression has come from his inability to get to the line.

12-13 PER 36 minute production: 7FTA, 20.4 ppg, 8.4 apg, 52 TS%, 20.8 PER, .8 bpg
13-14 PER 34 minute production: 5.3 FTA, 19 ppg, 8.3 apg, 51 TS%, 19.8 PER, .4 bpg

His 3 point shooting is better this year though. This TS is only .6 worse than last year. Overall the difference in the numbers is pretty marginal.

[Higga]

Wall is a top 5 PG in the league. The only PGs I think are definitely better are Paul and Curry(and I still look at Curry as more of a SG but whatever).

[dlts20]

Good to see you back on the boards, Scabs.

To me, there's no question Wall should be an All-Star. Top Eastern Conference guards :

PER MINUTE

1. Wade
2. Lowry
3. Korver
4. Wall
5. D. Williams

TOTAL PRODUCTION

1. Lowry
2. Wall
3. Afflalo
4. Korver
5. Wade

why do people try to bring up those kinda numbers when talking about who is better when it doesnt factor in systems or roles. Just a list with Korver over Wall tells you that those things are meaninless. Ive watched all those guys play this year and they havent been better than Wall. Not Lowery, Bledsoe, or whoever. Raps fans hated Lowery when Gay was there. He didnt play well until Gay got traded and thats not that long ago. Again, do you think this means Korver is a better guard than Wall?

[tontoz]

Wall is a top 5 PG in the league. The only PGs I think are definitely better are Paul and Curry(and I still look at Curry as more of a SG but whatever).

Relative to other pgs Wall isn't even top 30 in TS or turnover rate.

[Ruzious]

Good to see you back on the boards, Scabs.

To me, there's no question Wall should be an All-Star. Top Eastern Conference guards :

PER MINUTE

1. Wade
2. Lowry
3. Korver
4. Wall
5. D. Williams

TOTAL PRODUCTION

1. Lowry
2. Wall
3. Afflalo
4. Korver
5. Wade

why do people try to bring up those kinda numbers when talking about who is better when it doesnt factor in systems or roles. Just a list with Korver over Wall tells you that those things are meaninless. Ive watched all those guys play this year and they havent been better than Wall. Not Lowery, Bledsoe, or whoever. Raps fans hated Lowery when Gay was there. He didnt play well until Gay got traded and thats not that long ago. Again, do you think this means Korver is a better guard than Wall?

Did you watch about 2 weeks ago when Lowry completely outplayed Wall?

Wall is a great fast-break player. He is not a particularly good half-court player. Until he becomes a better half-court player, I think it's silly to get on your high horse about him being better than his stats show.

[Nivek]

Good to see you back on the boards, Scabs.

To me, there's no question Wall should be an All-Star. Top Eastern Conference guards :

PER MINUTE

1. Wade
2. Lowry
3. Korver
4. Wall
5. D. Williams

TOTAL PRODUCTION

1. Lowry
2. Wall
3. Afflalo
4. Korver
5. Wade

why do people try to bring up those kinda numbers when talking about who is better when it doesnt factor in systems or roles. Just a list with Korver over Wall tells you that those things are meaninless. Ive watched all those guys play this year and they havent been better than Wall. Not Lowery, Bledsoe, or whoever. Raps fans hated Lowery when Gay was there. He didnt play well until Gay got traded and thats not that long ago. Again, do you think this means Korver is a better guard than Wall?

Why do people nitpick at a stat result they don't like and elevate watching a few games to The Exalted Status of correctness? Just one of those mysteries, I guess.

I can understand your reaction. Wall is the more dynamic player. He has the ball in his hands a lot. He has more of a "creator" role. The numbers are actually pretty clear, though on what causes teams to win. Wall does a lot of good stuff (assists, steals, decent defense and some scoring), but he also does a sizable amount of "bad stuff" (missed shots and lots of turnovers).

Korver doesn't do as much of the "good stuff" as Wall, but also does far less of the bad stuff. He's a deadly shooter, he gets assists, and he commits few turnovers. And his defense is about average.

Does this mean I think Korver is "better" than Wall? The question is: at what? And for what? Korver is definitely the better shooter. Wall is the better passer and ball handler. Their rebounding is pretty close. Wall is probably a bit better on defense, though the difference isn't much. My numbers suggest their overall impact on the game so far this season is about the same.

[dlts20]

lol...........Ive heard it all now. Korver is as valuable as Wall. I will never take numbers like that seriously. He's not even in the top 3 most valuable on his own team no matter what those numbers suggest. He's a role player

[Nivek]

dlts20: Just for you, I came up with some numbers you're sure to like. I call it OGS (short for Only Good Stuff). Very simple formula: points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks. And, by this measure, Wall is a) "better" than Korver; and b) a top 5 PG.

Here's the PG list (OGS per 40 minutes):

1. Westbrook
2. Paul
3. Curry
4. Carter-Williams
5. Wall

If we go by TOTAL OGS, Wall is the 3rd "best" guard in the league behind Stephen Curry and Chris Paul. Wall will have to keep up the "good stuff" if he wants to hang on to the slim lead he has over 4th place Monta Ellis, though. And Korver? Nowhere close.

Just for kicks, I ran a counterpart stat for this. Call it OBS (Only Bad Stuff). Formula: missed FGA + .5 x missed FTA + tov + pf. Wall has the 3rd highest total among guards.

Here's what the All-Star teams would look like going by GBS (Good and Bad Stuff):

East
G - Wall
G - Afflalo
F - Lebron
F - Carmelo
F - Drummond
G - Kemba Walker
G - Lowry
F - George
F - Millsap
F - Monroe (inj replacement for Horford)
O - Hawes
O - Noah

West
G - Paul
G - Curry
F - Durant
F - Love
F - Aldridge
G - Harden
G - Lillard
F - Griffin
F - Howard
F - Cousins
O - David Lee
O - Nowitzki

If you prefer, we could replace the last guy in each O spot with a backcourt player for more balanced rosters. If so, this GBS thing would replace Nowitzki with Ty Lawson and Noah with Kyrie Irving.

[payitforward]

No, dlts, the lol may be on you, because names don't win games; numbers do (note: winner determined by final score -- nothing else).

Tell you what: here are what 4 point guards do per 40 minutes (they all play a lot of minutes; "40" equalizes). They're represented as colors. To encourage objectivity, you can assume that John Wall's not included. You tell me who's best.

Try not to look at a stat source to first find out who is who. Oh, and if you can't give me any idea of who's best, then maybe your assessment of Wall is just you programming your own imaginary TV show w/ the person you want?

Fouls:
3.6
2.6
3.0
3.3

TOs:
2.4
3.8
3.9
3.9

Steals:
1.9
2.2
1.8
3.1

Assists:
8.1
9.2
7.0
7.9

Offensive--Defensive Rebounds:
1--3.5
.6--3.8
.5--4.5
1.6--4.5

TS%:
.58
.51
.58
.49

Points:
17.6
21.1
21.5
20.0

Just rank them as best you can -- no blame no shame. That's what a scout or GM has to do after all.

[Nivek]

To the Wall vs. Korver thing, EVEN MORE numbers you're sure to like:

Code: Select all

Per 40  OGS     OBS     GBS
Wall    37.3    17.3    20.0
Korver  23.9    9.2     14.8


So, per 40 minutes, Wall does 37.3 "good stuffs" to Korver's 23.9. Wall does 17.3 "bad stuffs" to Korver's 9.2, so Wall "wins" 20.0 to 14.8.

And there was great rejoicing throughout the land.