fishercob wrote:Dat2U wrote:Mods... feel free to merge. I thought a thread already existed but I couldn't find it...
Of course, I disagree with the current direction of this franchise and I would actually take a "retooling" approach to the off-season. Likely the biggest way to improve the team short-term will be free agency or trades. So heading into the off-season here's how I'd look at the roster:Code: Select all
PG Wall ... Miller
SG Beal ... Rice
SF Porter . Webster . NEED
PF NEED ... Nene .... NEED
CE NEED ... NEED
We have gaping holes upfront. Were stuck with Nene but at this stage we need to ween ourselves off him being one of the main contributors simply because he can't be counted on to play such heavy minutes anymore so I suggest moving him to a reserve role. Instead of focusing on Ariza or replacing him in free agency, I'd focus those resources on finding another big and see if we can replace Ariza's presence internally.
1. NEED. A starting C.
Own FA: Gortat
Slight upgrade: Monroe (RFA)
Massive upgrade: Bosh
Slight downgrade: Hawes
Low priced risks: J. Hill or Okafor
2. NEED. A starting PF. Time to move Nene to the bench and limit his minutes so he can last his entire contract.
Own FA: Booker, Harrington
Massive upgrade: James, Anthony or Bosh
Possible fits: Frye
High priced risks: Randolph
Low priced values: Scott, E. Davis, Patterson, McRoberts, M. Williams, Jerebko, Cunningham, Arthur, Humphries & Diaw.
3. NEED. A rotation level big. Either PF/C or backup C.
Own FA: Seraphin
Possible fits at PF: Scott, E. Davis, Patterson, McRoberts, M.Williams, Jerebko, Cunningham, Arthur, Humphries & Diaw
Possible fits at C: J. Hill, Okafor, Blair, K. Martin, Udoh, L. Allen, G. Smith or Kaman
4. NEED. A rotation level wing. Capable of filling in should Porter/Rice fall flat. Also capable of falling back if both step up and excel.
Own FA: Ariza, Singleton
Possible fits: C. Butler, M. Miller, R. Jefferson, Miles, B. Rush, A. Anderson, Garcia or Sefolosha. 2nd round pick, NBDL talent, overseas talent.
5. NEED. Frontcourt depth. Capable of filling in when Nene gets hurt or we have significant foul trouble. C or PF. Maybe a long term project?
Own FA: Gooden?
Possible fits: See list under #3. 2nd round pick, NBDL talent, overseas talent.
Only way I'd consider bringing back Gortat if his salary was similar to what he's making right now. Around $7-8 mil per. Since I know he's looking for a much bigger pay day, I'd happily let him go into free agency.
I'd let Ariza go and hope for the best that Porter/Rice & Webster can replace the loss. I'd look at adding another 3 & D wing for depth purposes behind Porter & Webster. I'd make sure Porter gets every opportunity to become our starting SF next year and develop a comfort level with Wall & Beal, even if it means taking a slight step back initially.
With the cap room available, I'd pass on the initial rush to sign free agents and look for the bargains that might be available after the first few weeks once agents & players start getting desperate for offers. Signing guys like Maynor (or anyone for that matter) on the 1st day of free agency would be a no no in my book. If you can avoid paying full value for a free agent, why not?
The only guys I'd blow my cap room for without a 2nd thought....
F LeBron James ... well duh!
F Carmelo Anthony ... I think he's become criminally underrated on this board. If he took a pay cut to allow for an FA center to be signed, I'd be all for signing him.
F/C Chris Bosh ... Still young enough to be very productive over his next deal.
Could be a nice signing, but only for the right price...
G Eric Bledsoe ... injuries concern me but when he's played he's looked real good.
G Kyle Lowry ... coming off a stud-like season. A similar contract to the last would make him a steal!
G Isaiah Thomas ... Best backup PG that happens to start. Probably looking for starting gig only.
G Darren Collison ... Too good to make the money he does. Another excellent backup.
G/F Gordon Hayward ... has had a slightly disappointing season, still one of the better young wings.
F Mike Scott ... Offensively a breakout star this season. Either it was Sev or Ruz that nailed this guy.
F/C Channing Frye ... The ideal floor stretcher from the 4 or 5. Has really surprised with his comeback.
C Spencer Hawes ... The ideal backup C. Defensive issues prevent him from being a good starter.
C Jordan Hill ... Sneaky good the last two years, especially defensively. Why LA would let him go?
C Emeka Okafor ... If he's able to recover from the injury, he's a low risk gamble in FA.
C Greg Smith ... Looks good under advanced stats microscope. Hasn't gotten real opportunity yet.
Future overpaid "stars" who are merely solid players and aren't worth it.
G Lance Stephenson ... Classic example of role player on contender who's really going to be overpaid.
F Rudy Gay ... Still thinks he's a superstar and still believes he should be paid like one. Do not want!
F Loul Deng ... The type of guy Ernie loves. Vet in slow decline looking for a final big pay day.
F/C Greg Monroe ... The anchor of your defense must be able to defend. Solid offensive player at C.
Future overpaid "role players" or past "stars" who teams will regret resigning within 1st year
G Greivis Vasquez ... Overrated as 3rd guard. Not a starter either. Doesn't defend position well.
G Mario Chalmers ... Hopefully no one will get to see his play-making skills because he's still w/ LeBron.
G Rodney Stuckey ... Slasher who consistently struggles with shot. Better as 3rd guard.
F Danny Granger ... Steep decline coming off of injury. That means Ernie is probably very interested.
F Trevor Ariza ... Mr Contract year breakout. Not the first time he's done it either. Ideal for contender.
F Zach Randolph ... In steep decline & having down year, means Ernie is probably very interested.
F Ed Davis ... Talented skinny big who struggles with contact. A disappointment every where he's been.
C Marcin Gortat ... See Greg Monroe, except Gortat is much older. Ernie probably can't wait to re-up.
Guys too old to even bother with and/or not shot at getting...
G Chauncey Billups ... Completely done. May retire or hunt for front office gig.
G Dwyane Wade ... I wonder how much he really has left. Likely staying in MIA no matter what.
G Ray Allen ... Seemingly ageless wonder who's still productive in limited minutes.
G/F Vince Carter ... Still useful in limited role as scorer. Probably only playing for a contender.
F Shawn Marion ... Just keeps going and going and going. Looking to play for a contender.
F Paul Pierce ... Showed serious decline in his game this year. Bench player for contender now. .
F Caron Butler ... Lost a step 4 years ago. Has lost 3 more last 3 years. Playing on fumes at this point.
F Shane Battier ... The ultimate glue guy with just a smidgen left in the tank. Going to contender only.
F Mike Miller ... On his last legs as useful role player. Has value to playoff team.
F Richard Jefferson ... Still getting minutes for some unknown reason while riding out his career.
F Metta World Peace ... Done! This is where the TO/OchoCinco post career portion of his life begins.
F Andrei Kirilenko ... Too injury prone to really be relied on in starting role. Solid as 3/4 off the bench
F Antwan Jamison ... Completely done as useful rotation player. Hanging on as a deep bench vet now.
F Udonis Haslem ... Completely done IMO. May hang on in MIA a little longer.
F Dirk Nowitzki .... Will "likely" retire a Dallas Maverick.
F/C Elton Brand ... Capable of stealing a few minutes at backup C a night. That's what he can give you.
F/C Pau Gasol ... In a significant decline. Could have role off the bench with a contender.
C Tim Duncan ... Will retire a San Antonio Spur.
C Chris Andersen ... Criminally underrated role player who gives you HQ production in limited minutes.
You wanna give him how much??? LOOOOOOOOOOOOL!!!!!
G/F Evan Turner ... You can already see a GM is going to make a huge mistake. Ball dominant wing who stifles offensive flow with poor shot selection and bad decision making.
G Avery Bradley ... Offensively he's vomit inducing disaster but one helluva defender. Not worth it.
Bargain basement bin....
Lots of former & current Wizards on this list.
G D.J. Augustin ... He's doing his best impersonation of Nate Robinson right now.
G Jerryd Bayless ... He chose a bad yr to have a brick fest especially if scoring is your best attribute.
G Nate Robinson ... Recovering from a torn ACL, always liked him but at 5'9" not the injury you want.
G Ramon Sessions ... A scoring 3rd guard that can't really shoot. Doesn't seem to help his teams win.
G Steve Blake ... A vet that has only gotten better with age. Rock solid backup.
G Mo Williams ... Still quite useful as a backup PG who can pack a scoring punch.
G Shaun Livingston ... Has worked really hard to make himself useful after all the injuries. Good guy.
G Toney Douglas ... Don't really want him running your offense but a very good defender.
G Brian Roberts ... Hard working under-talented kid who does anything to help his team win.
G Jordan Farmar ... Solid backup PG who can score decently and run the offense effectively.
G Luke Ridnour ... Seems to have lost a step. Struggles without talent around him. Can't defend either.
G Aaron Brooks ... Quick undersized speedster with scoring mentality. Can't defend anyone.
G Devin Harris ... Unfortunately, he's lost two steps. Now a backup that doesn't move needle.
G Beno Udrih ... Arguably slowest PG in league. One step above being NBDL quality dreck.
G Kirk Hinrich ... Has been in slow decline for half decade. A solid defender despite lack of foot speed.
G Eric Maynor (ha!) ... He'll be released by Philly. I'll LOL if anyone offers him a guaranteed deal.
G Thabo Sefolosha ... Solid wing defender. Shoots infrequently enough were he's passable offensively.
G Nick Young ... Can shoot you out of games or into them. Looks best on the bad end of blowouts.
G Jordan Crawford ... Can simply shoot you out of games. Looks best on the rare occasion he's on.
G Jodie Meeks ... Three point specialist. Don't expect anything else.
G Anthony Morrow ... See Jodie Meeks above.
G Jimmer Fredette ... A scorer more than a shooter who needs the ball in his hands. Can't play PG.
G Ben Gordon ... Hey, didn't you used to be Ben Gordon?
G Shannon Brown ... Finisher and streaky shooter with suspect b-ball IQ, especially on defensive end.
G Marshon Brooks ... Low IQ scorer in Nick Young mode but without the likable personality.
G/F Francisco Garcia ... Slow wing who gives a solid effort & has respectable skill level. Meh defender.
G/F Alan Anderson ... Solid defender, ok shooter as a low usage 2/3 glue guy but you could do better.
G/F Jason Richardson... Injuries have taken their toll. Not sure how much he's got left in the tank.
G/F C.J. Miles ... Quietly having solid yr in Cleveland. 3 & D guy from SG position. Streaky shooter.
G/F Brandon Rush ... Was a solid 3 & D guy before injuries. Now struggling to re-establish his role.
F Al-Farouq Aminu ... Solid rebounder & defender at 3 but not a reliable perimeter threat.
F Michael Beasley ... Needs perfect situation to produce. Not a guy that can handle pressure IMO.
F Patrick Patterson .. Solid floor spacer at PF but rebounds like a SF. Not much of a defender.
F Josh McRoberts ... Has been a low usage glue guy in Charlotte. Solid shooter, excellent passer.
F Marvin Williams ... Floor spacer as undersized 4. Skills seem a better match at 4 than 3.
F Trevor Booker ... Grunt, effort guy undermined by injuries, poor pick & roll D. Struggles with size.
F Jonas Jerebko ... Floor spacing 4 that lost rotation spot in Detroit. Weird considering their needs.
F Dante Cunningham ... Can step out and hit the 15 footer. Good effort guy if a bit undersized.
F Darrell Arthur ... Lost his shooting touch last two seasons which was his main value. Solid defender.
F Matt Bonner ... Shooting specialist at PF. Can't play too many minutes, needs to be hidden on D.
F/C Kris Humphries ... Solid, underrated energy big who can backup both front court positions.
F/C Boris Diaw ... High IQ, overweight glue guy who can play well in SA but probably no where else lol.
F/C DeJuan Blair ... Rebounding monster who's still very productive despite no ACLs and being only 6-6.
F/C Andray Blatche ... Productive, high volume backup who can't be trusted with money or big role.
F/C Kenyon Martin ... Break in case of emergency vet at C. Competent in limited minutes defensively.
F/C Kevin Seraphin ... Scoring big with tunnel vision, very TO prone. Unreliable team defender.
F/C Ekpe Udoh ... Low post defender with short arms. Can't rebound, can't score, great otherwise.
F/C Lavoy Allen ... Taj Gibson lite with none of the toughness or reliability (or contract).
F/C B.J. Mullens ... Long range jumper loving big who doesn't do anything particularly well.
C Jason Smith ... Skilled big coming off serious injury. Decent in limited minutes prior to ACL tear.
C Chris Kaman ... Scoring big that doesn't defend a lick. Doesn't help his team win games either.
Dat this is really nice work. I have several comments, in no particular order.
(1) You omitted Patty Mills. I think he's one of the best guard targets on the market.
(2) I disagree with your characterization of Ariza as a "contract year breakout." Ariza played 40 games with Wall last season after Wall returned and had a TS% of .587. This year his TS% is .580. His overall play has been better, but I think he's also benefiting from a defined role, stability and playing with Gortat instead of Okafor. I think we saw how miscast we how Ariza was an any type of offensive creator at the start of last year. But once Wall came back he was damned good. I think he'd excel for Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, among others.
(3) Channing Frye has a $6.8M player option. I doubt he walks from that. His play has been surprisingly good this year; I thought he was done. I also wonder if we could have had him in the Gortat deal (because of that player option next year) but Ernie didn't want to clog his cap room. We'll never know, but I have a hunch we could have had him and just had no idea he was still this good. He'd be a great third big on this team.
(4) Agreed on Bosh. My hunch is he stays in Miami. I just think Riley will figure out how to rebuild that roster around on those three guys and add talent to it. He's that good.
(5) I worry that we will view ourselves as "set" at backup PG because of the Miller deal. In truth, his $2M guarantee is a sunk cost and if we can get a better player for the marginal money (or a comparable player for less money) we should. Someone is going to slip through the cracks with so many viable G's on the market -- i'd look into either upgrading for a guy like Mills or seeing if I could get someone like Sessions or Blake for close to the minimum. And man would it be nice to have that BAE. The Maynor deal is just a gift that keeps on giving isn't it?
I agree, this is terrific, Dat.
So much depends on how the Wizards finish this season.
I doubt that the Wizards will get any home town discount on either of Ariza or Gortat. What I think could occur is a favorable sign-and-trade.
How the season ends will go a long way to determine the asking price of both FAs. Also, I think Andre Miller stays on the roster, most likely, if hr helps in the playoffs.
