Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[TheSecretWeapon]

I haven't had time to study the issue in any rigorous way, but I continue to suspect that the anointing of Wall and Beal as The Best Backcourt, or even One of The Best Backcourts is premature, at best. Put "potentially" in front of the label, and I'm fine with the claim.

Well, it looks like Best Backcourt is out of reach. Wall will never be as good as Curry, and probably won't even get all that close. Curry is definitely a top 3 player in the league, and is arguably the best. I don't see Wall cracking the top 10, and if he does, it won't be higher than 8th or so.

And for now, Klay Thompson remains quite a bit better than Beal (though I think Beal has the capability of closing the gap).

I just queried my database using "games started" as a proxy for determining each team's backcourt. Last year Wall and Beal ranked 10th. Seven teams had starting backcourts with a minutes-weighted average (for the two players combined) higher than Wall's.

This season, Beal was better before he got hurt, but Wall's been worse than last year. If I get time, I'll run the numbers to see where things stand for this season.

EDIT: Once I had the query formulated, it was simple to run for this season. So far, (through games played Tuesday the 17th) Wall and Beal rank 8th in backcourt production.

[closg00]

The best team in the NBA (GSW) is comprised mostly of players Ernie Grunfeld passed-up in the draft. The ability to find talent in the draft and FA, is critical to the long-term organizational goals and team-building. The Wizards are always on the mediocrity teadmill because Grunfeld always brings in the likes of Vesely, Maynor, & Neal, tosses away assest gaining opportunities (Clarkson), and doesn't find gems in FA (Whiteside, Galloway, Lin, Taylor etc). EG and Wizard fans are left hoping for good luck, it isn't enough and Ted should demand more from his FO.

[closg00]

I haven't had time to study the issue in any rigorous way, but I continue to suspect that the anointing of Wall and Beal as The Best Backcourt, or even One of The Best Backcourts is premature, at best. Put "potentially" in front of the label, and I'm fine with the claim.

Well, it looks like Best Backcourt is out of reach. Wall will never be as good as Curry, and probably won't even get all that close. Curry is definitely a top 3 player in the league, and is arguably the best. I don't see Wall cracking the top 10, and if he does, it won't be higher than 8th or so.

And for now, Klay Thompson remains quite a bit better than Beal (though I think Beal has the capability of closing the gap).

I just queried my database using "games started" as a proxy for determining each team's backcourt. Last year Wall and Beal ranked 10th. Seven teams had starting backcourts with a minutes-weighted average (for the two players combined) higher than Wall's.

This season, Beal was better before he got hurt, but Wall's been worse than last year. If I get time, I'll run the numbers to see where things stand for this season.

EDIT: Once I had the query formulated, it was simple to run for this season. So far, (through games played Tuesday the 17th) Wall and Beal rank 8th in backcourt production.

Where does Knight/Bledsoe back court rank in production? Thanks!

[TheSecretWeapon]

Well, it looks like Best Backcourt is out of reach. Wall will never be as good as Curry, and probably won't even get all that close. Curry is definitely a top 3 player in the league, and is arguably the best. I don't see Wall cracking the top 10, and if he does, it won't be higher than 8th or so.

And for now, Klay Thompson remains quite a bit better than Beal (though I think Beal has the capability of closing the gap).

I just queried my database using "games started" as a proxy for determining each team's backcourt. Last year Wall and Beal ranked 10th. Seven teams had starting backcourts with a minutes-weighted average (for the two players combined) higher than Wall's.

This season, Beal was better before he got hurt, but Wall's been worse than last year. If I get time, I'll run the numbers to see where things stand for this season.

EDIT: Once I had the query formulated, it was simple to run for this season. So far, (through games played Tuesday the 17th) Wall and Beal rank 8th in backcourt production.

Where does Knight/Bledsoe back court rank in production? Thanks!

Don't know -- I didn't save my work. I'll probably write about this at the blog next week. Just eyeballing the numbers, I'm sure they ranked high. Both those guys are playing well. In fact, both guys (through Tuesday's games) had a PPA higher than Wall and Beal.

[closg00]

I just queried my database using "games started" as a proxy for determining each team's backcourt. Last year Wall and Beal ranked 10th. Seven teams had starting backcourts with a minutes-weighted average (for the two players combined) higher than Wall's.

This season, Beal was better before he got hurt, but Wall's been worse than last year. If I get time, I'll run the numbers to see where things stand for this season.

EDIT: Once I had the query formulated, it was simple to run for this season. So far, (through games played Tuesday the 17th) Wall and Beal rank 8th in backcourt production.

Where does Knight/Bledsoe back court rank in production? Thanks!

Don't know -- I didn't save my work. I'll probably write about this at the blog next week. Just eyeballing the numbers, I'm sure they ranked high. Both those guys are playing well. In fact, both guys (through Tuesday's games) had a PPA higher than Wall and Beal.

I suspected that Knight/Bledsoe were in the top-10 but didn't have any data....their numbers just popped-out at me when following the box scores. Knight is yet another player we could have taken in that 2011 draft, even with John being taken the year before.

[milellie111]

Grunfeld proves doubters wrong. Otto Porter was a masterful pick. Kid does so much on the floor and will get better! By the way, many blasted Ernie for taking Porter over Noel. Noel's PER IS 10.82. Porters is 16.61. Go figure

[montestewart]

Grunfeld proves doubters wrong.
Otto Porter was a masterful pick.
Kid does so much on the floor
and will get better! By the way,
many blasted Ernie for taking Porter
over Noel. Noel's PER IS 10.82.
Porters is 16.61. Go figure

So much for AFM's complaint about DC Rap. Millmatic spraying hollow points. (Bullets, that is.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Grunfeld proves doubters wrong.
Otto Porter was a masterful pick.
Kid does so much on the floor
and will get better! By the way,
many blasted Ernie for taking Porter
over Noel. Noel's PER IS 10.82.
Porters is 16.61. Go figure

So much for AFM's complaint about DC Rap. Millmatic spraying hollow points. (Bullets, that is.)

Millmatic is chopping down forests of critics like Paul Bunyan on steroids.

He's defoliating and destroying with Agent Orange laced with anthrax.

Who's trolling now he asks?

[FAH1223]

Fire Grunfeld

[payitforward]

6 days since we've heard from Millie -- where are you man?

[closg00]

Millie is in a box, his next move will be to throw Randy under the bus. The cobbled-together Pacers team is 2nd in the East,

[payitforward]

Are we an average team? In principle, "an average team" would have something around a 0 point deficit/advantage vs. the league over an 82 game schedule. Strength of schedule varies of course, so it'll never look exactly like that of course. Still, if you list by 82-game record, and then you list by differential per game, the two lists will be almost exactly the same.

We have 6 wins -- by a total of 51 points. We have 7 losses -- by a total of 130 points. Down 6 points a game to our opponents. We started 3-1, but in those 4 games we were a total of 2 points up on our opponents. In the 9 games since then, we're 3-6 -- down 8.67 points a game to our opponents.

Are we better than any teams in the East? Well, we're better than Brooklyn and Philadelphia, that seems clear. And we've beaten Orlando twice and Milwaukee twice for 4 of our 6 wins, so maybe we're better than those two teams as well? Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them finishes w/ a better record than ours.

Still, Kev is right that things may look different in a month or so; we may have improved, we may claw our way all the way up to being an average team. It'll be hard, but there is a chance.

[montestewart]

Are we an average team? In principle, "an average team" would have something around a 0 point deficit/advantage vs. the league over an 82 game schedule. Strength of schedule varies of course, so it'll never look exactly like that of course. Still, if you list by 82-game record, and then you list by differential per game, the two lists will be almost exactly the same.

We have 6 wins -- by a total of 51 points. We have 7 losses -- by a total of 130 points. Down 6 points a game to our opponents. We started 3-1, but in those 4 games we were a total of 2 points up on our opponents. In the 9 games since then, we're 3-6 -- down 8.67 points a game to our opponents.

Are we better than any teams in the East? Well, we're better than Brooklyn and Philadelphia, that seems clear. And we've beaten Orlando twice and Milwaukee twice for 4 of our 6 wins, so maybe we're better than those two teams as well? Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them finishes w/ a better record than ours.

Still, Kev is right that things may look different in a month or so; we may have improved, we may claw our way all the way up to being an average team. It'll be hard, but there is a chance.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM[/youtube]

Woo hoo! Average is so close I can taste it, and victory half the time never tasted so sweet!

[montestewart]

dupe

[payitforward]

Millie is in a box, his next move will be to throw Randy under the bus. The cobbled-together Pacers team is 2nd in the East,

I don't see the Pacers as a "cobbled together" team. Those were all positive team-building moves they made on their off season:

David West didn't figure in their future; it was no problem to let him go. Hibbert was over-paid; getting out of his contract was a good thing. In the place of those guys they have 2 new younger veterans (Budinger and Hill).

They let a bunch of end-of-career or otherwise marginal bench veterans walk, and replaced them with young players -- 3 draft picks and the 21-year old Glenn Robinson (who is playing very well, btw). They'll have 10 solid players next off-season, and a lot of cap room as well.

If anything, the only *bad* thing for them is how well they're doing -- I imagine they were counting on a pretty high lottery pick next year; keep playing like this and they won't get it.

[nuposse04]

Millie is in a box, his next move will be to throw Randy under the bus. The cobbled-together Pacers team is 2nd in the East,

I don't see the Pacers as a "cobbled together" team. Those were all positive team-building moves they made on their off season:

David West didn't figure in their future; it was no problem to let him go. Hibbert was over-paid; getting out of his contract was a good thing. In the place of those guys they have 2 new younger veterans (Budinger and Hill).

They let a bunch of end-of-career or otherwise marginal bench veterans walk, and replaced them with young players -- 3 draft picks and the 21-year old Glenn Robinson (who is playing very well, btw). They'll have 10 solid players next off-season, and a lot of cap room as well.

If anything, the only *bad* thing for them is how well they're doing -- I imagine they were counting on a pretty high lottery pick next year; keep playing like this and they won't get it.

Turner's development should pay dividends for them in years to come.

[FAH1223]

Millie is in a box, his next move will be to throw Randy under the bus. The cobbled-together Pacers team is 2nd in the East,

I don't see the Pacers as a "cobbled together" team. Those were all positive team-building moves they made on their off season:

David West didn't figure in their future; it was no problem to let him go. Hibbert was over-paid; getting out of his contract was a good thing. In the place of those guys they have 2 new younger veterans (Budinger and Hill).

They let a bunch of end-of-career or otherwise marginal bench veterans walk, and replaced them with young players -- 3 draft picks and the 21-year old Glenn Robinson (who is playing very well, btw). They'll have 10 solid players next off-season, and a lot of cap room as well.

If anything, the only *bad* thing for them is how well they're doing -- I imagine they were counting on a pretty high lottery pick next year; keep playing like this and they won't get it.

David West opted out of $12M to join the Spurs at the veteran's minimum. I think the Pacers were surprised by the move but they obviously had a plan in place to play faster and with stretch lineups.

[closg00]

Please bring back the countdown thread. Once again, we were all discussing the need to shore-up the front court all last off-season, in typical EG fashion, he waits until reality slaps him in the face because of an injury or other desperation. Fire EG.

[Higga]

Fire Grunfeld and Wittman and go out and get some young blood to run the team next summer. Leonsis since buying the team still hasn't really gone out and gotten new people to run the show.

[sashae]

Higga same thing with the Caps... took YEARS before he offed McPhee (which seems to have been a virtuous move.)